Dec 31 to Jan 12 Diff thread picks closed.

[philipma1957]

Just setting up thread.


We have .9 btc in funds left after I pay last diff's winner.

 same start up prize 0.10 btc  

 same pick idea  

+0.1 = philipma1957
+0.2 = notlist3d
+0.3 = sidehack

as high or as low as you want.

no new members  you must have opened your account before  Oct 31st  it must have 30 posts.  It must not have  a recent password change.

[1713511122]

1713511122

[1713511122]

1713511122

[philipma1957]

spacer

old thread is here:



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1294704.0;all


payment to the winner was made 0.416 btc    

This will be the highest prize given as I will stop  new rollovers at max of .2 or .3 btc

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1294704.msg13411292#msg13411292

picks start at block 600 and end at block 1200.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   116,936,764,551 (+12.57%)
Adjust time:   After 1978 Blocks, About 13.0 days      The  picks  start when it says 1416 here and end when it says 816 here
Hashrate(?):   731,282,739 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.8 minutes
Updated:   12:35 (4.2 minutes ago)

[notlist3d]

Value of BTC is around 430 at start of this thread.  Hopefully we see a push in price upwards.

This new trend to be 10+ percent difficulty really needs price to follow or eventually it's going to be hard to make profit's.

[philipma1957]

At this moment the real diff for this period is negative.

Bitcoin wisdom has a wrong high number.  It uses the last 500 blocks at the beginning of each prediction.

We made 141 blocks today.

We will need to watch carefully as the last two huge numbers have a lot to do with bitfury and the 40 megawatt plant they built.

I want people to understand that 141 blocks on the new diff is about 157 blocks on the last diff.

Now we have still watched big up swings and down swings.  I have been watch the temps near the Russian bitfury plant as I suspect the warm winter is causing that plant some problems.

Should be fun to watch.

Also here is a good question if bitfury has a 200 to 275 ph plant in one spot is that good or bad for the network?

Seems to me it is not a good idea to have that much hash in one spot.

[VirosaGITS]

At this moment the real diff for this period is negative.

Bitcoin wisdom has a wrong high number.  It uses the last 500 blocks at the beginning of each prediction.

We made 141 blocks today.

We will need to watch carefully as the last two huge numbers have a lot to do with bitfury and the 40 megawatt plant they built.

I want people to understand that 141 blocks on the new diff is about 157 blocks on the last diff.

Now we have still watched big up swings and down swings.  I have been watch the temps near the Russian bitfury plant as I suspect the warm winter is causing that plant some problems.

Should be fun to watch.

Also here is a good question if bitfury has a 200 to 275 ph plant in one spot is that good or bad for the network?

Seems to me it is not a good idea to have that much hash in one spot.

Very bad idea, if one spot blow up and that make a big wave for the network, then its bad. I hope their setup fail. xD

[philipma1957]

141 blocks today

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

First numbers are good see chart

[d57heinz]

let us not forget how huge antpool and f2pool are getting aswell.. I honestly dont think this is all bitfury.. a decent portion of it im sure. But antpool and f2pool who are both backed by manufacturers are also in the mix.. Look at antpool.  https://antpool.com/home.htm they are reporting 200 ph on their pool now..  I have to go here to get f2pool but i see a pattern for sure..http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a hover over the graph and watch the speeds of bitfury antpool and f2pool.. you can see which ones have the biggest swings.. It is indeed bitfury.. but what we are not noticing is the huge and steady growth of the mega pools.  Those aren't us small miners adding petahashes at a time.. its the greedy manufacturers letting it get the best of them.. 

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+11.41%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   115,736,702,762 (+11.41%)
Adjust time:   After 1859 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   720,421,695 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.0 minutes
6 blocks: 58.0 minutes
Updated:   9:0 (2.5 minutes ago)


The above is pretty far off

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   391261
Total BTC   15.032M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   103788427798 in 1859 blks >>>>>>>>   we are actually negative!
 
Network total   700212.073 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.65 / 637 s

[notlist3d]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+11.41%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   103,880,340,815
Estimated Next Difficulty:   115,736,702,762 (+11.41%)
Adjust time:   After 1859 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   720,421,695 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.0 minutes
6 blocks: 58.0 minutes
Updated:   9:0 (2.5 minutes ago)


The above is pretty far off

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   391261
Total BTC   15.032M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   103788427798 in 1859 blks >>>>>>>>   we are actually negative!
 
Network total   700212.073 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.65 / 637 s

I would love to see a negative.  I'm tired of 10+ level it really is not fun to see multiple weeks.  But not much I can do to change it just watch and speculate.

Price is 430's and seems to be staying in that area for a bit.  So better then the 400 area but still not a huge jump, I really want 450 this period.  I just want a new wall  set up higher but sometimes price does move slow.

[adaseb]

Looks like today will end as a negative day also. Finally 2 negative days in a row. Maybe we will get a break next difficiulty adjustment and end up flat.

[philipma1957]

Looks like today will end as a negative day also. Finally 2 negative days in a row. Maybe we will get a break next difficiulty adjustment and end up flat.

It could go back to under 5%    .  I pretty much have been saying this was bitfury's 180 to 225 ph farm the last two jumps.

If I am right we should be okay until others put in a monster farm.

The s-7 and avalon 6 sales  do not kill us the super farms do.

[adaseb]

Looks like today will end as a negative day also. Finally 2 negative days in a row. Maybe we will get a break next difficiulty adjustment and end up flat.

It could go back to under 5%    .  I pretty much have been saying this was bitfury's 180 to 225 ph farm the last two jumps.

If I am right we should be okay until others put in a monster farm.

The s-7 and avalon 6 sales  do not kill us the super farms do.

In North America in the last 3 days there was a heat wave so many that's why some gear is powered off like Bitfurys.

[philipma1957]

Looks like today will end as a negative day also. Finally 2 negative days in a row. Maybe we will get a break next difficiulty adjustment and end up flat.

It could go back to under 5%    .  I pretty much have been saying this was bitfury's 180 to 225 ph farm the last two jumps.

If I am right we should be okay until others put in a monster farm.

The s-7 and avalon 6 sales  do not kill us the super farms do.

In North America in the last 3 days there was a heat wave so many that's why some gear is powered off like Bitfurys.

the heat wave was last adjustment not this adjustment.

but if you check Russia where the  bitfury plant is it has been pretty cold around 40f.

so the heat wave idea is not so much of a reason why you have a negative.

remember we have just had 2 big jumps.  most of which can be placed to bitfury.



Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900      8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> bitfury said 40 megawatt farm went online
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450      2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s



So 566 ph jumps to 743 ph     about 180ph


I figure bitmaintech sales and avalon sales in that time to be a max of 10,000 units or 40-50 ph

so the minimum of  130-140 ph = bitfury

Since the Nov 11 date was the first big jump  the network moved from 445 to 743  say 300ph.

lets say bitfury started slow build up    at the 445 mark and added 200 ph and all other gear was 100 ph   this is just about the entire jump  and we could

go flat. for 2 jumps or all of jan  2016.

also tax laws vary but getting the gear online like mad in 2015 could have a lot of tax advantages for the big companies.

All spec on my part .  The good thing is maybe jan is a 2 % and a 2 % jump and then we do a rush in feb.

[RichBC]

Just to show how difficult it was to predict the last 14 Day period. Here is my plot of every block with each point calculated using the Block times for all the blocks in the period so far.



With picks open from 600 to 1200 you can see how difficult it was and even right up to the last few blocks how you could easily miss the correct value. 
At least we are running nicely negative at the moment, the same plot is on -5.5% at the moment.

Rich

[philipma1957]

Just to show how difficult it was to predict the last 14 Day period. Here is my plot of every block with each point calculated using the Block times for all the blocks in the period so far.



With picks open from 600 to 1200 you can see how difficult it was and even right up to the last few blocks how you could easily miss the correct value.  
At least we are running nicely negative at the moment, the same plot is on -5.5% at the moment.

Rich

well if think that someone was setting up 225ph and could not get it to run perfectly it does explain the crazy movement up and down.

As you say it was all over the place. In oct or sept  2014 bitfury put up a big farm and we had out last 20% jump.

First  full day was very good.  My buddy here can't figure this out!



He is full of  


Note: Gif is from member amalref

[RichBC]

Don't know if Bitmain  is up to something but Antpool just hit 7 blocks on the trot?

391400   14:49:13      AntPool
391399   14:36:09      AntPool
391398   14:32:03      AntPool
391397   14:30:30      AntPool
391396   14:19:59      AntPool
391395   14:11:13      AntPool
391394   14:10:51      AntPool

Average time between Blocks 5 1/2 Mins...


Rich

[philipma1957]

Don't know if Bitmain  is up to something but Antpool just hit 7 blocks on the trot?

391400   14:49:13      AntPool
391399   14:36:09      AntPool
391398   14:32:03      AntPool
391397   14:30:30      AntPool
391396   14:19:59      AntPool
391395   14:11:13      AntPool
391394   14:10:51      AntPool

Average time between Blocks 5 1/2 Mins...


Rich

The network has shown us in the last two months that  the big players can crank it up quite a bit.

391414 (Main Chain)   2016-01-02 17:11:01
391317 (Main Chain)   2016-01-02 00:00:19

but for today   we are 17 hours and 25 minutes in that is 104 blocks

and we have made 98 so far.


real short peeks at blocks 2 hours  or less are pretty worth less variance will rule in a short burst.

3 day peeks have meaning.

BTW  I am pretty sure that bitfury points some of its 200ph + hash at f2pool and antpool in an effort to hide that is is making close to 50 blocks a day with that 40 megawatt farm.

[notlist3d]

Don't know if Bitmain  is up to something but Antpool just hit 7 blocks on the trot?

391400   14:49:13      AntPool
391399   14:36:09      AntPool
391398   14:32:03      AntPool
391397   14:30:30      AntPool
391396   14:19:59      AntPool
391395   14:11:13      AntPool
391394   14:10:51      AntPool

Average time between Blocks 5 1/2 Mins...


Rich

The network has shown us in the last two months that  the big players can crank it up quite a bit.

391414 (Main Chain)   2016-01-02 17:11:01
391317 (Main Chain)   2016-01-02 00:00:19

but for today   we are 17 hours and 25 minutes in that is 104 blocks

and we have made 98 so far.


real short peeks at blocks 2 hours  or less are pretty worth less variance will rule in a short burst.

3 day peeks have meaning.

BTW  I am pretty sure that bitfury points some of its 200ph + hash at f2pool and antpool in an effort to hide that is is making close to 50 blocks a day with that 40 megawatt farm.

It would make sense for them to split it, I think you might be right.  It could make it seem more decentralized by doing it instead of doing all under their own name.   Both of those allow PPS so they might be going that route.

Antpool I think had an attack yesterday from what I read it stopped site but not mining.  Not 100 percent sure on it.  But if anyone does not read the pool forum can be interesting on a few of the threads even if you just lurk there like me.

[philipma1957]

...

It would make sense for them to split it, I think you might be right.  It could make it seem more decentralized by doing it instead of doing all under their own name.   Both of those allow PPS so they might be going that route.

Antpool I think had an attack yesterday from what I read it stopped site but not mining.  Not 100 percent sure on it.  But if anyone does not read the pool forum can be interesting on a few of the threads even if you just lurk there like me.

yeah no reason for them to not point 25ph at both pools.  and 150ph at their own  thus the block counts do not look so slanted.


Plus people think it means both avalon sixes and s-7's are feeding the growth of f2pool and antpool when in fact so is bit fury gear.
 We are in a very interesting time for BTC as the big builders of asics have really locked down sales and constricted development of the chips they make in an effort to max profits before the ½ ing.

It would be so easy for asic builders to sell naked chips  much like intel or amd sell psu's.  Yet for now none of them do this.

I can buy 1 to 10,000 intel cpu's  with ease
I can buy 1 to 10.000 amd cpu's with ease.

I can't buy 1 to 10,000 asic chips.

http://www.amazon.com/21-INC-21BC1-Bitcoin-Computer/dp/B014RD021C/ref=sr_1_1?s=pc&ie=UTF8&qid=1451760671&sr=1-1&keywords=21+bitcoin+computer

perfect example I want the chip in this gear nothing else.  a big fuck you we won't sell it in lots of 1 or 10 or 100 or 1000


photo of the chip mounted on a board in that pc.  that chip can do 8 watts and 50gh  since it claims to be .16 per gh

a two  chip build  with 1 heat sink  could  do 100gh at 16 watts

 well maybe  just maybe 1 chip could be the best  usb stick ever

[RichBC]

Someone just turned the tap back on... In the last 3 Hours we have gone from a running rate of -6% to -3%.

Rich