Yet another analyst :)

[michaelGedi]

I'm not going to pretend I know much about markets, but how can people stop viewing bitcoin as an investment when there are BTC denominated shares in mining companies and the like? or are you only referring to bitcoin itself, and the need for a complete lack of confidence in it as an investment to enable it to bottom out? or have I misunderstood something?

When btc was $2, almost no-one was referring to it as an "investment". The investment talk occurs at market highs, not at lows (when, ironically, it actually would be a good investment).

ok, that makes sense. But I guess part of my point is, is it not too late to go back to that mentality? Now the cats out the bag, people have invested in e.g. ASICMINER etc... people do view BTC as an investment. Maybe what needs to happen according to your statement is that people need to view BTC as a bad investment? Which inversely is the time it should be a good investment... A lot of people know that though, so how can people truly allow themselves to believe it's a bad investment when they know it to be good?!

[phoenix1]

I'm not going to pretend I know much about markets, but how can people stop viewing bitcoin as an investment when there are BTC denominated shares in mining companies and the like? or are you only referring to bitcoin itself, and the need for a complete lack of confidence in it as an investment to enable it to bottom out? or have I misunderstood something?

When btc was $2, almost no-one was referring to it as an "investment". The investment talk occurs at market highs, not at lows (when, ironically, it actually would be a good investment).

ok, that makes sense. But I guess part of my point is, is it not too late to go back to that mentality? Now the cats out the bag, people have invested in e.g. ASICMINER etc... people do view BTC as an investment. Maybe what needs to happen according to your statement is that people need to view BTC as a bad investment? Which inversely is the time it should be a good investment... A lot of people know that though, so how can people truly allow themselves to believe it's a bad investment when they know it to be good?!

They may know it and truly believe it, but if there is no further money coming in from new investors, or they are not prepared to put more of their own money in there is only one way for prices to go. And when prices drop far enough and things don't play out quickly enough people start questioning their judgement ... slowly their self belief is eroded until they capitulate. Then it starts all over again ...
That, and exploitation of that by big players, is what drives markets

[Rampion]

Long term is years, not months.

You are correct. And this has been a long term bull market since 2009.

I agree only in part with Brightanarchist. I also said "we are entering a multi-month (mid term) bear market" since April, 11th. Bitcoin will down. Thats what you get after a so obvious speculative bubble. I also agree on the general approach, "buy when everybody is crying and sell when everybody is cheering". Pretty basic stuff. Best time to buy BTC in 2011 was indeed after "The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin" Wired article. But this time much more things are happening, both bad (the feds seizing accounts is much worse than some hacks) and good (positive media exposure, VC's money, etc.).  Plus, I disagree on the following:

1) Brightanarchist, you are looking at this like it's a stock. And BTC is not a stock. His implications are much deeper than those of the commodities you are used to trade on markets. Its growth potential is orders of magnitude bigger than the assets we trade on other markets.

2) you expect a bear market worse than we had in 2011 (bottom was 1/16 compared to the top, November), as you say we will see the bottom in 2-3 years. No way. This is no 2011. IMO the bottom is around $50, and we already explored it. We may very well explore it again, but we won't go much deeper.

Again, BTC has deep implications. More people is understanding it. They fall in love with it. It will go viral sooner than you expect. Each cycle will ignite faster and will go much higher than you expect.

[Viceroy]

It will go viral sooner than you expect.

* Viceroy turns to look at the geek

[Brunic]

I'm not going to pretend I know much about markets, but how can people stop viewing bitcoin as an investment when there are BTC denominated shares in mining companies and the like? or are you only referring to bitcoin itself, and the need for a complete lack of confidence in it as an investment to enable it to bottom out? or have I misunderstood something?

When btc was $2, almost no-one was referring to it as an "investment". The investment talk occurs at market highs, not at lows (when, ironically, it actually would be a good investment).

ok, that makes sense. But I guess part of my point is, is it not too late to go back to that mentality? Now the cats out the bag, people have invested in e.g. ASICMINER etc... people do view BTC as an investment. Maybe what needs to happen according to your statement is that people need to view BTC as a bad investment? Which inversely is the time it should be a good investment... A lot of people know that though, so how can people truly allow themselves to believe it's a bad investment when they know it to be good?!

When they lose money on their investment, they have a tendency to strongly believe that it was a bad investment. I have great hope for Bitcoin, I think it's really a revolutionary concept....but I'm still laughing at the guy who bought my coins at 180$ each. This dude is screwed though, he bought something that was overvalued and is stuck with it.

It's not hard to understand. There is some economic laws that exist, one of them is the phenomenon of an economic bubble. You guys pumped up a bubble, it crashed, the market got destroyed, confidence was affected and money was lost. The market has to recover from that, it's simple.

[lucif]

Two candles closed below BB in a row. Bear trend starting and accelerating.

[lucif]

Fiat leaving Bitcoin. The situation in other exchanges is worse. Its a falling knife.

[coldguy]

Bitcoins need to be converted to fiat for real world economics.

I guess now a lot of fiat is going into semiconductor fabs for next generation of ASICs.

[old_engineer]

I drew this figure month ago. And price walk with it very accurately so far.

Lucif, many kudos for putting out a prediction a month ago, but it seems ridiculous to claim that it's been accurate.  The first wave did happen as predicted, but the last waves did not, and the price is now 3x higher than your predicted price for 5/24.  It's fine to be wrong, it just irks me that you claim you were right when you clearly weren't.  For fairness, I'll put out my own falsifiable prediction: $140 by this time next week, and $150 by June 10th.  The triangle has broken in favor of the bulls.

This seems an appropriate followup to my prediction.

[samurai1200]

It's absolutely amazing how often I see Lucif predict trends correctly. Just read the last 10 pages of his posts, and he predicts perfectly, generally converging on "bear market." Bravo!

[smoothie]

It's absolutely amazing how often I see Lucif predict trends correctly. Just read the last 10 pages of his posts, and he predicts perfectly, generally converging on "bear market." Bravo!

Go back about 6 months in this thread and then come back.

[samson]

from pm

What are your charts telling you from here ?

We got either break down of this mid size triangle, or price drew wave "d" of this triangle. Watching.

So depending on that, price either walk ~100 -> ~120 way one more time OR start long impulse to ~$15 ... $35 right now.

There's a lot of orders between $10 and $12, in fact right now there's no 10000+ BTC bids on any single $ above that level.

[lucif]

Short buy 50% @$90

hehe

[Bimmerhead]

Short buy 50% @$90

hehe

Does that mean you're going short, or you're buying?

Or you're just buying for the short term?

[BrightAnarchist]

I have a feeling that we're entering a time where bears are going to be greatly rewarded. Not just in Bitcoin but across the entire breadth of financial markets. I expect nothing less than an epic crash in stocks, bonds, and commodities once the dangerously overinflated QE bubble really pops. I think this process may have already begun, albiet these things take time

In the meantime, I especially love how many users are so "confused" by bear markets - they think there must be a fundamental change, like "omg the price fell what's going on what changed?" nothing changed, bitcoin is the same, it's just the psychology around bitcoin that is changing... When the price exploded, people noticed that and rationalized it (cypris, etc.), and now that the price is falling they will find a way to rationalize that too.

Anyhoo, very interesting times indeed!

[ElectricMucus]

Are you the one messing with btc-e lucif? You know prices have been at the upper range since this all started... It seems propped up, I don't know to what end.

[Frozenlock]

In the meantime, I especially love how many users are so "confused" by bear markets (...)

And yet those are the most interesting moves; you can make money much more quickly. 

[Jozzaboy]

I have a feeling that we're entering a time where bears are going to be greatly rewarded. Not just in Bitcoin but across the entire breadth of financial markets. I expect nothing less than an epic crash in stocks, bonds, and commodities once the dangerously overinflated QE bubble really pops. I think this process may have already begun, albiet these things take time

In the meantime, I especially love how many users are so "confused" by bear markets - they think there must be a fundamental change, like "omg the price fell what's going on what changed?" nothing changed, bitcoin is the same, it's just the psychology around bitcoin that is changing... When the price exploded, people noticed that and rationalized it (cypris, etc.), and now that the price is falling they will find a way to rationalize that too.

Anyhoo, very interesting times indeed!

You do not believe that Bitcoin will be propped up by an influx of cash after financial meltdown? Much like Cypress?

[niothor]

You do not believe that Bitcoin will be propped up by an influx of cash after financial meltdown? Much like Cypress?

Not again please......

[Jozzaboy]

You do not believe that Bitcoin will be propped up by an influx of cash after financial meltdown? Much like Cypress?

Not again please......

What? Rational argument beats Bear?