Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!

[Biodom]

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

yes if they were growing with .5 watt or more gear but they arent.. Its growin with .25 and .1 watt gear.. so they can drive the price right on down to the mid 100$ if they like

Ohh and we can thank china for this aswell   On January 15, 2016, Mike Hearn officially resigned as a full time Bitcoin core developer. Even if a new team replaces Bitcoin Core, Hearn emphasizes that the concentrated and centralized mining power in China would still be a critical issue.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/15/mike-hearn-resigns-and-leaves-bitcoin-permanently/

ive been thinking this for a while now..

“It has failed because the community has failed,” said Hearn. “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically important institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.”

Here is his official statement  

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cxygsg9eg

Yes, the recent price drop is almost certainly due to Mike's announcement. I read it yesterday. It's very sobering, and very pessimistic.

It's not enough to make me panic and sell out. But it is clear that the Bitcoin protocol needs to change in order for the currency to grow, but there are a number of very difficult factors that are preventing the right things from happening.

Ironic that probably the biggest threat to Bitcoin is its own community and an inability to change...

the guy rage quit to a new competitive employer (R3), then threw mud at his former 'collegues'.
check this video and see if he was any good to bitcoin anyway with these pretty wild ideas of not following the longest fork, checkpoints, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DB9goUDBAR0

he is just unable to admit that his proposal failed. Big whoop, it happens, deal with it.
I don't see any inability to change whatsoever. Segwit is pretty interesting and so is Rootstock and LN.
If there is an option for bitcoin to grow, but fundamentally change or Not grow as fast, but remain truthful to it's original intent, I would very much prefer the latter.
This whole affair was orchestrated by R3:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/413pwp/mike_hearns_latest_blog_post_was_a_strategic_move/

the video is unavailable now, LOL

[d57heinz]

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

yes if they were growing with .5 watt or more gear but they arent.. Its growin with .25 and .1 watt gear.. so they can drive the price right on down to the mid 100$ if they like

Ohh and we can thank china for this aswell   On January 15, 2016, Mike Hearn officially resigned as a full time Bitcoin core developer. Even if a new team replaces Bitcoin Core, Hearn emphasizes that the concentrated and centralized mining power in China would still be a critical issue.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/15/mike-hearn-resigns-and-leaves-bitcoin-permanently/

ive been thinking this for a while now..

“It has failed because the community has failed,” said Hearn. “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically important institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.”

Here is his official statement  

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cxygsg9eg

Yes, the recent price drop is almost certainly due to Mike's announcement. I read it yesterday. It's very sobering, and very pessimistic.

It's not enough to make me panic and sell out. But it is clear that the Bitcoin protocol needs to change in order for the currency to grow, but there are a number of very difficult factors that are preventing the right things from happening.

Ironic that probably the biggest threat to Bitcoin is its own community and an inability to change...

the guy rage quit to a new competitive employer (R3), then threw mud at his former 'collegues'.
check this video and see if he was any good to bitcoin anyway with these pretty wild ideas of not following the longest fork, checkpoints, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DB9goUDBAR0

he is just unable to admit that his proposal failed. Big whoop, it happens, deal with it.
I don't see any inability to change whatsoever. Segwit is pretty interesting and so is Rootstock and LN.
If there is an option for bitcoin to grow, but fundamentally change or Not grow as fast, but remain truthful to it's original intent, I would very much prefer the latter.

Proposals or not.. wouldnt have mattered as china wasnt on board.. The fact of the matter is .> china has over 71 % .. so coming to consensus is now next to impossible. We now find ourselves catering to the chinese.  Thus the system cant work!  How can one trust a system that is being centralised to a country not known for its freedoms? I personally think they have gotten beyond greedy.. Now its a game of pump and dump even with btc.. I thought i wouldnt see the day that btc could be manipulated so easily.. I can understand the early days. less coins etc.. but now? its most certain that these handful of people are just having fun at our expense.. No THANKS

Personally.. Im just about over this childish experiment as well.. I hope that some of you die hard bitcoin fanatics dont go down with the ship.. Its really not worth it.. If your holding over 1 btc then your not doing this right.. with only 21 million coins If this is ever going to gain traction then 1 btc should in theory make you filthy stinking rich. And thats what attracts people to this  Not the technology that comes secondary to most miners!

Heres a great experiment to test btc loyalty. Lets let the price be 10$  then lets see where the difficulty goes then?.. If you support the blockchain and the technology then you stay at a major loss if you mine.. If you only in it to make a buck like most are, Then the network diff should go back to where gpu become profitable again. 

Going to make for an interesting 2016.. Im shutting down my s2's as i dont see a big pump coming for halving.. Too much BS and manipulation for investors and its only been getting worse.. sad as this was a great idea.. Still is.. but has to be done differently..   If you really cared about banking the unbanked then btc should have been 0 $ till all coins were mined then evenly distributed to every man woman and child in the world.. We all know thats not gonna happen. So again think who was this really designed for in the beginning. everyone or the rich? Was this a ploy to dupe those that think outside the sytem?  Another great experiment will go down in flames due to the elite wanting to keep the world under their grip! 

Best Regards
d57heinz

[Biodom]

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

yes if they were growing with .5 watt or more gear but they arent.. Its growin with .25 and .1 watt gear.. so they can drive the price right on down to the mid 100$ if they like

Ohh and we can thank china for this aswell   On January 15, 2016, Mike Hearn officially resigned as a full time Bitcoin core developer. Even if a new team replaces Bitcoin Core, Hearn emphasizes that the concentrated and centralized mining power in China would still be a critical issue.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/15/mike-hearn-resigns-and-leaves-bitcoin-permanently/

ive been thinking this for a while now..

“It has failed because the community has failed,” said Hearn. “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically important institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.”

Here is his official statement  

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cxygsg9eg

Yes, the recent price drop is almost certainly due to Mike's announcement. I read it yesterday. It's very sobering, and very pessimistic.

It's not enough to make me panic and sell out. But it is clear that the Bitcoin protocol needs to change in order for the currency to grow, but there are a number of very difficult factors that are preventing the right things from happening.

Ironic that probably the biggest threat to Bitcoin is its own community and an inability to change...

the guy rage quit to a new competitive employer (R3), then threw mud at his former 'collegues'.
check this video and see if he was any good to bitcoin anyway with these pretty wild ideas of not following the longest fork, checkpoints, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DB9goUDBAR0

he is just unable to admit that his proposal failed. Big whoop, it happens, deal with it.
I don't see any inability to change whatsoever. Segwit is pretty interesting and so is Rootstock and LN.
If there is an option for bitcoin to grow, but fundamentally change or Not grow as fast, but remain truthful to it's original intent, I would very much prefer the latter.

Proposals or not.. wouldnt have mattered as china wasnt on board.. The fact of the matter is .> china has over 71 % .. so coming to consensus is now next to impossible. We now find ourselves catering to the chinese.  Thus the system cant work!  How can one trust a system that is being centralised to a country not known for its freedoms? I personally think they have gotten beyond greedy.. Now its a game of pump and dump even with btc.. I thought i wouldnt see the day that btc could be manipulated so easily.. I can understand the early days. less coins etc.. but now? its most certain that these handful of people are just having fun at our expense.. No THANKS

Personally.. Im just about over this childish experiment as well.. I hope that some of you die hard bitcoin fanatics dont go down with the ship.. Its really not worth it.. If your holding over 1 btc then your not doing this right.. with only 21 million coins If this is ever going to gain traction then 1 btc should in theory make you filthy stinking rich. And thats what attracts people to this  Not the technology that comes secondary to most miners!

Heres a great experiment to test btc loyalty. Lets let the price be 10$  then lets see where the difficulty goes then?.. If you support the blockchain and the technology then you stay at a major loss if you mine.. If you only in it to make a buck like most are, Then the network diff should go back to where gpu become profitable again. 

Going to make for an interesting 2016.. Im shutting down my s2's as i dont see a big pump coming for halving.. Too much BS and manipulation for investors and its only been getting worse.. sad as this was a great idea.. Still is.. but has to be done differently..   If you really cared about banking the unbanked then btc should have been 0 $ till all coins were mined then evenly distributed to every man woman and child in the world.. We all know thats not gonna happen. So again think who was this really designed for in the beginning. everyone or the rich? Was this a ploy to dupe those that think outside the sytem?  Another great experiment will go down in flames due to the elite wanting to keep the world under their grip! 

Best Regards
d57heinz

TL;DR
I did not get the point.
S2? Yeah, sure, shut it down.

[alh]

While I remain convinced that BTC price will drive hashrate and hence difficulty, I always though it was more of a long-term trend kinda thing. The BTC price continues to slowly decline, at the same time difficulty increase also starts to moderate.

I don't expect we are actually in any danger of a difficulty decrease, just perhaps a smaller increase than recently.

BTC now down to $379.

Is this the result of the "ASIC Arms Race" that was re-ignited back in September?

[VirosaGITS]

While I remain convinced that BTC price will drive hashrate and hence difficulty, I always though it was more of a long-term trend kinda thing. The BTC price continues to slowly decline, at the same time difficulty increase also starts to moderate.

I don't expect we are actually in any danger of a difficulty decrease, just perhaps a smaller increase than recently.

BTC now down to $379.

Is this the result of the "ASIC Arms Race" that was re-ignited back in September?

Check the discussion boards, there are like 20 threads about it. Mike dude did some drama and being a Core member, it caught the media attention and the weak p2p rabble joined in the dump. Which cause people who actually hold BTC to sell now, so that they can buy it cheaper later.

It is probably going to affect Diff a little bit, too, but i don't think his manipulation attempts at BTC is going to go his way, we'll see.

[philipma1957]

While I remain convinced that BTC price will drive hashrate and hence difficulty, I always though it was more of a long-term trend kinda thing. The BTC price continues to slowly decline, at the same time difficulty increase also starts to moderate.

I don't expect we are actually in any danger of a difficulty decrease, just perhaps a smaller increase than recently.

BTC now down to $379.

Is this the result of the "ASIC Arms Race" that was re-ignited back in September?

If you change September to November I would say yes.

but  in general the drop is to level the  price pump from 230 to 450   which is  96 percent increase

at 230 to 379 it is a 65 percent increase

diff from 56.9 to 113.3 is  99 percent increase

so if diff went up 99 percent and price went up 96 percent we would be equal   not true since power  was .5 to .7 in sept  and now power is  .25 to .35 and if you average in the older gear maybe the network is  .4  .  so actually we are almost exactly the same as sept 4 .

the question  :

Is  sept 4 the true value of the game?

[adaseb]

Well at least today will end up being -18% day.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    121,524,659,964 (+7.21%)
Adjust time:    After 1661 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    763,616,412 GH/s

Conservative: 1.4%
Normal  3.4%
Continous: 9.2 %
by http://nextdifficulty.com/

mining-profit.com at 0.2%

Praying for under 5% 

[notlist3d]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    121,524,659,964 (+7.21%)
Adjust time:    After 1661 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    763,616,412 GH/s

Conservative: 1.4%
Normal  3.4%
Continous: 9.2 %
by http://nextdifficulty.com/

mining-profit.com at 0.2%

Praying for under 5% 

Considering price is at around 375 currently... it's been a ugly 48 hours on value.  We really need it to go up again at some point.  But we broke through the 400 wall... not fun to see it fall thought.

I would be happy with under 5 percent this week. 

[radiumsoup]

Considering price is at around 375 currently... it's been a ugly 48 hours on value.  We really need it to go up again at some point.  But we broke through the 400 wall... not fun to see it fall thought.

I would be happy with under 5 percent this week. 

It's really one or the other...hoping for difficulty to go down and the price to go up would be rather futile, since hashrate follows price (in very, very general terms). The network 3-day average went down from +2% per day to -1.5% per day in a span of just 48 hours. That means the effective hashrate is down considerably as people panic and unplug their .5w+ devices. The only thing driving that is the price drop over the last day. So you're getting a diff drop precisely because of the price drop...and if the price recovers and people plug in their older devices again, you're going to get an enormous diff jump correlation. I predict a continuing drop in hashrate in the short term (few weeks or so) due to the risk associated with the price during the stock markets tanking, keeping downward pressure as investors move to cash. Good for existing efficient new hardware (and to a lesser extent people buying new hardware with bitcoin), bad for people relying on older hardware (and to a lesser extent manufacturers with fiat costs selling hardware in bitcoin). Dancing in the streets for savvy speculators playing the markets, since volatility makes the most money for them.

[philipma1957]

Just when stuff looks bad  look at blocks

[notlist3d]

Just when stuff looks bad  look at blocks

(saving space from double post of pics)

We can hope it does go down.   A little good news is I keep watching it and seems we hit a little more of a sell wall around 370.  It's stuck around it for a bit.

If you like watching coinbase http://bitcointicker.co/coinbase/# is funner on up day's on value.  But I have been using it as pretty good site to watch real time.

[RichBC]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

[philipma1957]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

[RichBC]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

Yes funny how the first couple of days often look to be well down and then pick up? Looks like we will be close to par for Today? However still well done at -6.7% for the period so far.

Rich

[notlist3d]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

Yes funny how the first couple of days often look to be well down and then pick up? Looks like we will be close to par for Today? However still well done at -6.7% for the period so far.

Rich

Btc value is also doing a little rebound from the top 350ish to 386.   I'm just hoping we can get back to 400 sell wall again.  I really like seeing that sell wall mentally.

So really feeling better it could have been a lot worse.  I think the cryptsy news added with the Mike Hearn story.... I think he could have been a little less public almost seems like he wanted to hurt Bitcoin.  Also Cryptsy was attacked in July ( http://www.coindesk.com/cryptsy-bankruptcy-millions-bitcoin-stolen/ ).   If people have not learned yet do not keep your coins on a exchange it is a bad idea for most.

[RichBC]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

Yes funny how the first couple of days often look to be well down and then pick up? Looks like we will be close to par for Today? However still well done at -6.7% for the period so far.

Rich

Btc value is also doing a little rebound from the top 350ish to 386.   I'm just hoping we can get back to 400 sell wall again.  I really like seeing that sell wall mentally.

So really feeling better it could have been a lot worse.  I think the cryptsy news added with the Mike Hearn story.... I think he could have been a little less public almost seems like he wanted to hurt Bitcoin.  Also Cryptsy was attacked in July ( http://www.coindesk.com/cryptsy-bankruptcy-millions-bitcoin-stolen/ ).   If people have not learned yet do not keep your coins on a exchange it is a bad idea for most.

Yes I think he set out to hurt Bitcoin... Good to see a little bounce, and I did buy some at what I hope was close to the bottom? 


Rich

[notlist3d]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

Yes funny how the first couple of days often look to be well down and then pick up? Looks like we will be close to par for Today? However still well done at -6.7% for the period so far.

Rich

Btc value is also doing a little rebound from the top 350ish to 386.   I'm just hoping we can get back to 400 sell wall again.  I really like seeing that sell wall mentally.

So really feeling better it could have been a lot worse.  I think the cryptsy news added with the Mike Hearn story.... I think he could have been a little less public almost seems like he wanted to hurt Bitcoin.  Also Cryptsy was attacked in July ( http://www.coindesk.com/cryptsy-bankruptcy-millions-bitcoin-stolen/ ).   If people have not learned yet do not keep your coins on a exchange it is a bad idea for most.

Yes I think he set out to hurt Bitcoin... Good to see a little bounce, and I did buy some at what I hope was close to the bottom? 


Rich

I think you can think Mike Hearn for a lot of that profit.  I'm hoping we go back up and he fades into background.   I just hope he keeps quiet saying things like bitcoin is dead is a great headline, even if not true.   

It is a little scary he want's to hurt Bitcoin it seems.  I'm a little afraid of future remarks getting picked up in news articles and have same effect.   

[philipma1957]

What a difference a Week makes... From a solid +9%, (170 Black days) and I would have said that the rate going out of the period was higher than that. Now just had a -15% (122 Block Day)

Do people think the lower hash rate is at this stage related to the Exchange rate drop, or was the hash Rate down before that happened?


Rich

Both not or at least that is my  my guess.  Oh we picked up today

110 blocks in the time for 108  which is under 2%

  So far we are really doing well. for the first 3 days.

Yes funny how the first couple of days often look to be well down and then pick up? Looks like we will be close to par for Today? However still well done at -6.7% for the period so far.

Rich

Btc value is also doing a little rebound from the top 350ish to 386.   I'm just hoping we can get back to 400 sell wall again.  I really like seeing that sell wall mentally.

So really feeling better it could have been a lot worse.  I think the cryptsy news added with the Mike Hearn story.... I think he could have been a little less public almost seems like he wanted to hurt Bitcoin.  Also Cryptsy was attacked in July ( http://www.coindesk.com/cryptsy-bankruptcy-millions-bitcoin-stolen/ ).   If people have not learned yet do not keep your coins on a exchange it is a bad idea for most.

Yes I think he set out to hurt Bitcoin... Good to see a little bounce, and I did buy some at what I hope was close to the bottom? 


Rich

I think you can think Mike Hearn for a lot of that profit.  I'm hoping we go back up and he fades into background.   I just hope he keeps quiet saying things like bitcoin is dead is a great headline, even if not true.   

It is a little scary he want's to hurt Bitcoin it seems.  I'm a little afraid of future remarks getting picked up in news articles and have same effect.   

or he had sold a ton of coins at 450 dropping price to 430.  then  made the announcement  hoping coins would that a big drop  so for every coin he sold at 450  he could get bargains at 350-360

Many forget  coins  were dirt cheap  when he started.  He may have 50,000 coins.

I earned 1 coin a day from august 2012 until dec 2012  about 125 coins.  the  whole network  was about 20th 

 My house is mining 25th right now as I type!!

[RichBC]

or he had sold a ton of coins at 450 dropping price to 430.  then  made the announcement  hoping coins would that a big drop  so for every coin he sold at 450  he could get bargains at 350-360

Many forget  coins  were dirt cheap  when he started.  He may have 50,000 coins.

I earned 1 coin a day from august 2012 until dec 2012  about 125 coins.  the  whole network  was about 20th 

 My house is mining 25th right now as I type!!

Unfortunately if that is true, it also shows how vulnerable Bitcoin still is, if a single individual can manipulate the market in that way?

Rich