Why bitcoin hashrate significantly decreased since 13feb2016

[InceptionCoin]

Why hashrate decreased from 1300Ph/s back to 1080Ph/s?
Last few week there was incredible growing of hashrate, however last few days there was significant decrease.
Growing was uniformly distributed over pools, and decreasing most signifiicantly affected chinese pools, according with https://bitcoinchain.com/pools
What is the reason?

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[XERES]

maybe the halfing?
or maybe a few farms had a dispute or legal issues. I dont think its possible for anything we think to be above speculation

[InceptionCoin]

maybe the halfing?
or maybe a few farms had a dispute or legal issues. I dont think its possible for anything we think to be above speculation

Well, asics which are unprofitable after halfing should work all time before halfing to get maximum profit.
Controversially to second point hashrate decreased smoothly.

[sunbreak]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

[InceptionCoin]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

But why miners not stop their rigs right at the moment of difficult retarget?

[gregyoung14]

maybe the halfing?
or maybe a few farms had a dispute or legal issues. I dont think its possible for anything we think to be above speculation

I'm guessing the very same thing thinking this is perhaps due to the halving.

[sunbreak]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

But why miners not stop their rigs right at the moment of difficult retarget?

Because they are literally replacing it with new gear. Out with the old in with the new, just look on eBay right now ... ridiculous amounts of mining gear for sale.

[Lutzow]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

But why miners not stop their rigs right at the moment of difficult retarget?

Because they are literally replacing it with new gear. Out with the old in with the new, just look on eBay right now ... ridiculous amounts of mining gear for sale.

Exactly, even hashnest announced that S4 are no longer profitable. That means the manufacturers are just aiming to replace all their old miners with the new ones. There could be a negative difficulty increase but the question is up to what point will such take place.

[InceptionCoin]

Ok. Got it.
Thanks Lutzow and sunbreak.

[mainpmf]

Why hashrate decreased from 1300Ph/s back to 1080Ph/s?
Last few week there was incredible growing of hashrate, however last few days there was significant decrease.
Growing was uniformly distributed over pools, and decreasing most signifiicantly affected chinese pools, according with https://bitcoinchain.com/pools
What is the reason?

Well I don't know why but that's good!
We should hope for small Hashpower decrease before halving, in order to not see a huge crash and endanger btc just after the halving!

[VirosaGITS]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

Thats just wrong. S5's are still 50%~ profitable on 0.06$/kWh which is not great but not bad either. This is around what you get if you have your things hosted in non rip off data centers.

Right now i break even on S1's. The S3+ will be running for a bit longer still.

[notlist3d]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

Thats just wrong. S5's are still 50%~ profitable on 0.06$/kWh which is not great but not bad either. This is around what you get if you have your things hosted in non rip off data centers.

Right now i break even on S1's. The S3+ will be running for a bit longer still.

What data centers are you getting .06 from?  That is lower then most out there that I have seen actually. I know one that is a little above .07 that brags a lot about being one of the lowest.

I think you will find more are closer to 8-10 cent area.   And I agree it should be cheaper but they are not in most cases.

[VirosaGITS]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

Thats just wrong. S5's are still 50%~ profitable on 0.06$/kWh which is not great but not bad either. This is around what you get if you have your things hosted in non rip off data centers.

Right now i break even on S1's. The S3+ will be running for a bit longer still.

What data centers are you getting .06 from?  That is lower then most out there that I have seen actually. I know one that is a little above .07 that brags a lot about being one of the lowest.

I think you will find more are closer to 8-10 cent area.   And I agree it should be cheaper but they are not in most cases.

Hosted by Allinvain in Canada. I'd use his services if i had to. If you can negotiate a deal for several months i think he can do bit better prices. When that S5 deal was going on that came with hosting from Allinvain, the hosting came down to just about 0.06$/kWh.

Considering residential here get 0.062$ here... Industrial setups can get up to 0.03-0.04$/kWh here.

0.08 to 0.1$/kWh doesnt really make sense considering there's cheaper in the US(well i think Sidehack and Toomin comes down to really close to 0.08?) and if you dont mind shipping to Canada, anyone in Québec gets 0.06$~

[RichBC]

Why hashrate decreased from 1300Ph/s back to 1080Ph/s?
Last few week there was incredible growing of hashrate, however last few days there was significant decrease.
Growing was uniformly distributed over pools, and decreasing most signifiicantly affected chinese pools, according with https://bitcoinchain.com/pools
What is the reason?

I think the drop is no more than a mix of Variance + Holiday. It's climbing again now they are back at work and when you step back and look at the graph in a Month or two's time this dip will look nothing out of the ordinary.


Rich

[64dimensions]

To just stay in place roughly for the remainder of the year you need about 4X of your current hash rate. A possibility is a data center power upgrade. It could take 1 - 4 weeks to install a new transformer off the same feed not to mention the hassle if the owners were upgrading the trunk feed in some way.

[Amph]

bears in mind that those numbers are just an estimate, i doubt they are always precise, there is a tollerance of error, i would account 10%

another thing can be for testing new 16nm or a specific project with 16nm, maybe a "+" version of the new asic

[tss]

chinese folks built a bunch of equipment and put it into service prior to going on new year vacation.  during vacation they took orders for a shit load of gear.  once they came back to work they unplugged the miners, packed them in boxes and shipped them to their customers.  you will see all of the hash come back within a week when customers receive their miners and put them into service.  you will also see a lot more hash from the newly assembled miners chinese turn on

[DrG]

chinese folks built a bunch of equipment and put it into service prior to going on new year vacation.  during vacation they took orders for a shit load of gear.  once they came back to work they unplugged the miners, packed them in boxes and shipped them to their customers.  you will see all of the hash come back within a week when customers receive their miners and put them into service.  you will also see a lot more hash from the newly assembled miners chinese turn on

Don't let the secret out of the bag.  Many still think they can make a fortune buying miners and putting them next to their blenders.

[QuintLeo]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

 Depends on your electric cost. My remaining S5s are still profitable - though not by a LOT - at 7cents/KWH.

I'd suspect it's more about Bitmain shipping their next batch of S7s (there's always been a noticeable drop at that point as THEY stop mining with them but it takes a week or two to get them packed up, shipped, and the recievers to get them back in service) with possibly some addition from other folks selling and shipping miners like Avalon.

 Might also be that one or more Chinese ISPs are having some sort of connection issues the past week?

[notlist3d]

Because any gear that isn't running at 0.25W/ghash or less is no longer producing and profit and after the next diff change in the next 24 hours it will certainly be at a loss. There was an estimated 400 petahash of gear that should be shutting down over the next couple months. Looks like about half of it has just turned off. That or network variance. However considering that build out of new gear is still happening and hash rate is going down perhaps variance can't account for a decrease. Either way .. mining with anything but the S7, the latest Avalon and BW.com's 14nm miner thing will effectively cost more than it will mine even with fairly cheap power.

 Depends on your electric cost. My remaining S5s are still profitable - though not by a LOT - at 7cents/KWH.

I'd suspect it's more about Bitmain shipping their next batch of S7s (there's always been a noticeable drop at that point as THEY stop mining with them but it takes a week or two to get them packed up, shipped, and the recievers to get them back in service) with possibly some addition from other folks selling and shipping miners like Avalon.

 Might also be that one or more Chinese ISPs are having some sort of connection issues the past week?

One thing people should keep in mind is when they are profitable but not by a lot... it's normally a good time to sale.   Price of sales will continue to go down and will do a big drop once next gen hit's market.

I was barley profitable on last gen (avalon 4.1's, sp20's, S5's, S5+).  I sold them all and bought coins with them for the temporary future.  Eventually they will go back into mining gear but I made a heck of a lot more by selling then I would have by minin on tiny profit.