Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[philipma1957]

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

Yeah I think we are going up and up until the end of this diff

I think long term we will be up.  I can't understand why we slowed so much, I can throw tons of theories none backed by fact's though.

The fact is difficulty is scary since Jan 26 to me:

Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

Add that up and we get almost 40 percent.   I just am hoping even with new NM chips we don't see this again.  I can't take to many of these quick and fast jumps or my profit margins are out the window.

Something that REALLY scared me was when I first realized whats really happening with % increases.  With respect to the Jan 26 difficulty, it is not 5.89% + 20.06% + 13.44% = 39.39%, it is 1.0589 * 1.2006 * 1.1344 = 1.44218012, or 44.2%.

Reminds me of the Einstein quotes:

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it."  and "Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."

I always like that quote.

Here we go all blocks since this jump
http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "

we look to be 148 today  which would put us at  - 43 blocks.  this is good but I do remember 187 block days even 202 block days just a little while ago.

so I hope for a -1 this jump and would be happy with a +2 this jump we have enough time to get up to +5 or + 6 which would be terrible.

[1714675088]

1714675088

[1714675088]

1714675088

[1714675088]

1714675088

[1714675088]

1714675088

[notlist3d]

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

Yeah I think we are going up and up until the end of this diff

I think long term we will be up.  I can't understand why we slowed so much, I can throw tons of theories none backed by fact's though.

The fact is difficulty is scary since Jan 26 to me:

Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

Add that up and we get almost 40 percent.   I just am hoping even with new NM chips we don't see this again.  I can't take to many of these quick and fast jumps or my profit margins are out the window.

Something that REALLY scared me was when I first realized whats really happening with % increases.  With respect to the Jan 26 difficulty, it is not 5.89% + 20.06% + 13.44% = 39.39%, it is 1.0589 * 1.2006 * 1.1344 = 1.44218012, or 44.2%.

Reminds me of the Einstein quotes:

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it."  and "Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."

Compound interest really is a amazing thing.  I can't believe I did not think about this guess I was already shocked and stuck at 40 percent.   44 percent is almost having number... and that is since Jan 26.

People are scared of having but we almost did it just with difficulty changes in a very small period of time.  I hope it stays down... but I'm guessing once next nm is perfected we see some big jumps.  The good news is I don't know if this is a near term problem.  We could still have some time before this.

[philipma1957]

we flattened out near the end and went minus on the day 142 blocks!

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456531162564

400186 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 23:44:59

400047 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 00:29:05

not bad at all.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   159,571,769,462 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:   After 998 Blocks, About 7.3 days ------------------ picks end when this is 816  so late Saturday maybe?
Hashrate(?):   1,122,853,773 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   19:0 (3.7 minutes ago)

and with 1018 blocks made we are down 60 blocks or so. 

[Witrebel]

Also, at some point we will probably/hopefully see older gear start to fall off, which may help temper the sharp jumps

[philipma1957]

Also, at some point we will probably/hopefully see older gear start to fall off, which may help temper the sharp jumps

I suspect the drop off here has been just that.  when the s-7 started we had 410 ph in older gear.

[notlist3d]

Also, at some point we will probably/hopefully see older gear start to fall off, which may help temper the sharp jumps

I suspect the drop off here has been just that.  when the s-7 started we had 410 ph in older gear.

The problem I think is most of the big operations of old gear (A1's I'm thinking of a lot here).  They chances are will upgrade not shut down.  They already have the initial investment in data center.

I think most re-invest with new machines and have VERY low electricity prices.  So not sure old gear coming off is that great of news.

[edonkey]

-5.8 = edonkey

Hopefully I'm not too late...

The cats are excited about this one. Haven't seen them this interested in the difficulty for a long time.

[philipma1957]

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  20- 25 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

[tertius993]

-3.1 = tertius993

[zebedee]

-1.7 = zebedee

Thanks

[philipma1957]

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,606,072,678 (-2.99%)
Adjust time:   After 935 Blocks, About 6.9 days   >>>>> 816 is 119 blockx to go
Hashrate(?):   1,108,122,542 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   6:20 (3.3 minutes ago)

[vapourminer]

+1.2 = vapourminer

[philipma1957]

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph

+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,606,072,678 (-2.99%)
Adjust time:   After 935 Blocks, About 6.9 days   >>>>> 816 is 119 blockx to go
Hashrate(?):   1,108,122,542 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   6:20 (3.3 minutes ago)

[wlefever]

-3.0 = wlefever

[radiumsoup]

-2.7 = radiumsoup

[notlist3d]

Continues to go down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    158,385,284,623 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:    After 873 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,142,198,263 GH/s

Think I choose wrong side... looking like decent chance  of negative.  I'm happy to be wrong on that though.  Price around 430 and headed down slightly so not great but not to bad.

[philipma1957]

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph

+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,385,284,623 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 873 Blocks, About 6.4 days  >>>>>>> 56 blocks and picks end
Hashrate(?):   1,142,198,263 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


Still maybe 7 to 11 hours left to pick

[RichBC]

Well I can't risk leaving the Pick until Tomorrow as it will be too early in the Morning UK time. So as ever it's tricky, we have gone down up and sideways, and now things are picking up a little again. Still leaves the biggest unknown of will someone switch on a load more hash at some point?

We could still end up anywhere between -5% & +5% so....

-0.3 = RichBC

[tss]

+1.9 = tss

[philipma1957]

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
  0.0 = adaseb

+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d

+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 =pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  16- 21 hours to  end of picking.
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
146    +2    -48  with 844 blocks to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,083,875,890 (-3.31%)
Adjust time:   After 844 Blocks, About 6.2 days    >>> 28 blocks left!
Hashrate(?):   1,164,358,445 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.7 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   19:55 (1.6 minutes ago)

about 4 to 7 hours left to pick  lots of numbers left to go.