Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom looking pretty nice:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    160,680,904,929 (-1.72%)
Adjust time:    After 1157 Blocks, About 8.5 days
Hashrate(?):    1,096,049,195 GH/s


Price at around 423.  So really not to bad of a week if this continues.  I would be super happy to see a negative.

[1714686352]

1714686352

[1714686352]

1714686352

[1714686352]

1714686352

[1714686352]

1714686352

[alfacro]

- 0.5 = alfacro

[ailikun]

- 0.7 = ailikun

[philipma1957]

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

-0.7 = ailikun

-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi



https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456361477388

400046 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 23:46:55
399892 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 00:14:52

we had the first big day today 155 blocks

[notlist3d]

Truly amazing to watch bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,573,299,963 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1132 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,104,274,198 GH/s

I did not think we would go negative.  And now showing over 2 percent negative.... I don't know what to think.  I feel like speculation right now is like throwing a dart at board.  That there is not any good true speculation.

[VirosaGITS]

Truly amazing to watch bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,573,299,963 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1132 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,104,274,198 GH/s

I did not think we would go negative.  And now showing over 2 percent negative.... I don't know what to think.  I feel like speculation right now is like throwing a dart at board.  That there is not any good true speculation.

If i lose because i put a way too high guess, i'll be even happier to be wrong, because a negative right now sound too good to be true. Hopefully its the end of a high raise trend and not just the eye of the storm.

Considering Bitfury apparently sell 14PH/s + self contained freight container miners, it could go much much higher if someone decided to crash the diff further.

[philipma1957]

Truly amazing to watch bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,573,299,963 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1132 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,104,274,198 GH/s

I did not think we would go negative.  And now showing over 2 percent negative.... I don't know what to think.  I feel like speculation right now is like throwing a dart at board.  That there is not any good true speculation.

nah  you just need to see what we have been shown from nov 2015 to feb 2016 to know there is 80 to 150ph on the sidelines that gets powered on and off.

we had this mystery hash stay online for one really long stretch of time jan 22 to feb 14 hash rates went fucking nuts.

It was  turned off  for the first 800 blocks this jump,     but this last day maybe some came back on line.  we did  155 blocks or so

The good thing is every if a push of 10 % happens for a while  since we are neg 2.5%  we may only have a plus 5% at worst.

I really hope the worst does not happen.  we will see soon enough.


@ virsosaGits  I think you are still in the game with that pick of 4.2

[notlist3d]

Truly amazing to watch bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,573,299,963 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1132 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,104,274,198 GH/s

I did not think we would go negative.  And now showing over 2 percent negative.... I don't know what to think.  I feel like speculation right now is like throwing a dart at board.  That there is not any good true speculation.

nah  you just need to see what we have been shown from nov 2015 to feb 2016 to know there is 80 to 150ph on the sidelines that gets powered on and off.

we had this mystery hash stay online for one really long stretch of time jan 22 to feb 14 hash rates went fucking nuts.

It was  turned off  for the first 800 blocks this jump,     but this last day maybe some came back on line.  we did  155 blocks or so

The good thing is every if a push of 10 % happens for a while  since we are neg 2.5%  we may only have a plus 5% at worst.

I really hope the worst does not happen.  we will see soon enough.


@ virsosaGits  I think you are still in the game with that pick of 4.2

I still see it as hard with it being so secretive.  For all we know some 16NM's were sold and moving locations.  There are countless ideas I can come up with that possibly could be effecting it.

But I could be over complicating it.   Hopefully I am and the drop keeps going, and your right about we will see soon enough.

[VirosaGITS]

Truly amazing to watch bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,573,299,963 (-2.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1132 Blocks, About 8.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,104,274,198 GH/s

I did not think we would go negative.  And now showing over 2 percent negative.... I don't know what to think.  I feel like speculation right now is like throwing a dart at board.  That there is not any good true speculation.

nah  you just need to see what we have been shown from nov 2015 to feb 2016 to know there is 80 to 150ph on the sidelines that gets powered on and off.

we had this mystery hash stay online for one really long stretch of time jan 22 to feb 14 hash rates went fucking nuts.

It was  turned off  for the first 800 blocks this jump,     but this last day maybe some came back on line.  we did  155 blocks or so

The good thing is every if a push of 10 % happens for a while  since we are neg 2.5%  we may only have a plus 5% at worst.

I really hope the worst does not happen.  we will see soon enough.


@ virsosaGits  I think you are still in the game with that pick of 4.2

I still see it as hard with it being so secretive.  For all we know some 16NM's were sold and moving locations.  There are countless ideas I can come up with that possibly could be effecting it.

But I could be over complicating it.   Hopefully I am and the drop keeps going, and your right about we will see soon enough.

Who knows, the 16nm theory doesnt sound that bad. It would of been a burn-in test of a batch of 5-10 containerized data center.
http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter

[blindminer]

-4.1 = blindminer

[philipma1957]

-4.1 = blindminer

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

-0.7 = ailikun

-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi



https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456361477388

400046 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 23:46:55
399892 (Main Chain)   2016-02-25 00:14:52

we had the first big day today 155 blocks


our low pick is -4.1  our high pick is  +7.1

that is a spread of 11.2 or 112 ranges
we could go lower then the -4.1 but I think the +7.1 is running short on time.

but pace is picking up after 5 hours today we made 37 blocks and should be 30 this is a 160 block pace.

I had expected 155 or more the rest of the jump slowly rising out of negative and ending at 2 or 3 %

[CrazyGuy]

+.4

[RichBC]

but pace is picking up after 5 hours today we made 37 blocks and should be 30 this is a 160 block pace.

I had expected 155 or more the rest of the jump slowly rising out of negative and ending at 2 or 3 %

Yes definitely a step up Yesterday and that seems to be continuing Today, to early to judge but Today's Run rate at +25%. It's not BW they are still down at 80PH


Rich

[adaseb]

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

[philipma1957]

-4.1 = blindminer

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.4 = HerbPean
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.4 = bomberb17

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct

-0.7 = ailikun

-0.5 = alfacro

  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy

+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+2.0 = ezeminer

+2.2 = Valkir

+2.5 =pusttiu

+3.2 = Biodom

+3.5 = Last of the V8s

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+4.6 = kipper01

+7.1 = psi

@ RichBC and adaseb  looks like our mystery farm has fired up so if they keep it going from now until the end of the jump we will be in the 2 to 5% range.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom still pretty dang low:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,762,196,590 (-2.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1055 Blocks, About 7.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,117,976,550 GH/s

Price at 424 gain of 1 dollar or so currently in a day.  If we get a negative and price in 420's I would consider this a huge win.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom still pretty dang low:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,762,196,590 (-2.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1055 Blocks, About 7.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,117,976,550 GH/s

Price at 424 gain of 1 dollar or so currently in a day.  If we get a negative and price in 420's I would consider this a huge win.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400136 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 14:29:18

400047 (Main Chain)   2016-02-26 00:29:05

90 blocks made in the time it takes for 87   we would do around 147- 152 today   If we keep at that level we could stay near -1 to +1

[HerbPean]

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

Yeah I think we are going up and up until the end of this diff

[notlist3d]

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

Yeah I think we are going up and up until the end of this diff

I think long term we will be up.  I can't understand why we slowed so much, I can throw tons of theories none backed by fact's though.

The fact is difficulty is scary since Jan 26 to me:

Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

Add that up and we get almost 40 percent.   I just am hoping even with new NM chips we don't see this again.  I can't take to many of these quick and fast jumps or my profit margins are out the window.

[Witrebel]

Seems like somebody woke the Beast again. Crazy run-up today.

Yeah I think we are going up and up until the end of this diff

I think long term we will be up.  I can't understand why we slowed so much, I can throw tons of theories none backed by fact's though.

The fact is difficulty is scary since Jan 26 to me:

Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

Add that up and we get almost 40 percent.   I just am hoping even with new NM chips we don't see this again.  I can't take to many of these quick and fast jumps or my profit margins are out the window.

Something that REALLY scared me was when I first realized whats really happening with % increases.  With respect to the Jan 26 difficulty, it is not 5.89% + 20.06% + 13.44% = 39.39%, it is 1.0589 * 1.2006 * 1.1344 = 1.44218012, or 44.2%.

Reminds me of the Einstein quotes:

"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it."  and "Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."