Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[talks_cheep]

In China, if you know the "right" people, you can get electricity for free, all you have to do is pay cash "under the table" to these "right" people. Much less expensive than paying for electricity, especially if you are a megawatt miner.

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[Mikestang]

Is it just me, or does anybody else think that it MIGHT be a tiny negative adjustment? The bitcoinwisdom trend lines all suggest that could happen, although with nearly 11 days to go, almost anything is possible still.

The change is just stunning from a week ago.

I suspect it's the eye of the storm, but with the price rising and the difficulty falling let's enjoy it while it lasts. But yes Today is going to be another quiet one with around -12% on the Day and the run rate for the period at least -6%. However as you say 11 days to go, but nice to see a downward slope for a change. Picks open in about 24Hrs time so a new prediction challenge awaits. 

Rich

Unfortunately after the record setting diff growth over the winter this far even a modest negative adjustment doesn't really excite me.  Now string together 6 or 8 -10% adjustments and we've got something to talk about!  Not that I'll turn down a negative adjustment, it's just that any diff over ~100G is pretty daunting to us small miners.

[notlist3d]

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess.  Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway.  I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done.  There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?


Rich

good as any other guess.

although I prefer a 50 to 100 ph group of farms in China were busted for power theft.  This would be very helpful to hash rate for a few jumps.

The only thing is that BW miner is quite different then the specs they released on miner long ago.  So they must be able to produce it pretty cheap if they launched a lot of them.  

I'm not sure on chip design but they have a way's till they reach specs.   Not sure if that is good or bad long term.  They do seem to be first one to sell 14NM though at least one reseller had hands on a few from BW.  I have not seen any others sell a 14nm outside of company.

I think that the point is that all the noise from Bitfury and the actual existence of the BW Miner signals that 14nm is here / very close, so who is going to be buying a 28nm miner at the moment?

Rich

I would agree on the signals that 14nm is getting better and eventually will hit specs and knock all 28nm out at normal mining.  There are those super cheap or free miners though that will be super lucky and 28 NM still great.

If you had 1-2 cent electricity even after 14NM I suspect a S7 would still be a great miner.  I predict Bitmain keeps making S7's for foreseeable future likely as internal electricity is so low and cost to make is lowest it will be.  So they still have some big profits left on 28NM.

But for normal electricity you right when you look at specs (once the 14nm hits them) it is a game changer on electricity usage.

[Brob12321]

So when its a rollover we can't change our pick from the last difficulty right ?

[VirosaGITS]

So when its a rollover we can't change our pick from the last difficulty right ?

The prize goes up, it rollover. Of course you can change your picks.

[philipma1957]

So when its a rollover we can't change our pick from the last difficulty right ?

a new game every adjustment.

so a different pick is allowed.

we are starting picks at 1216 taken from here:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   166,270,789,400 (+1.70%)
Adjust time:   After 1525 Blocks, About 11.2 days   1416 is the start
Hashrate(?):   1,096,968,792 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   22:45 (4.5 minutes ago)

[Amph]

only 1.7% the next one?, it seems that they are slowing it down already, this mean that they want to maintain some margin on their profit and they are near the minimum ratio needed between earning and consumption

[RichBC]

Well another quiet Day -11.81% 127 Blocks. Today at the moment looks to be similar, run rate for the Period now at -6.28% and Picks should open in about 14 Hours. So the big question is are we going to continue like this or will someone start piling on the Hash?

[philipma1957]

Well another quiet Day -11.81% 127 Blocks. Today at the moment looks to be similar, run rate for the Period now at -6.28% and Picks should open in about 14 Hours. So the big question is are we going to continue like this or will someone start piling on the Hash?

yes what we know is the network can do over  1,250 ph as it was doing it for days on end from  jan 22 to feb 14
 so we start picking in 51 blocks.

This does make picks very hard since 100 to 125ph are on the sidelines.

No one knows if a big farm in China was busted stealing power. (we can all hope this is the case)

I want to say keep your eyes peeled for any info on the twitter-reddit- anywhere to confirm if a Chinese farm did get caught.
Oh coins went down to 420 usd this morning.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,324,094,341 (+1.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1467 Blocks, About 10.8 days >>>>>>>  at  1416 we start ( corrected )
Hashrate(?):   1,116,470,561 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.7 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:30 (5.6 minutes ago)

[notlist3d]

Well another quiet Day -11.81% 127 Blocks. Today at the moment looks to be similar, run rate for the Period now at -6.28% and Picks should open in about 14 Hours. So the big question is are we going to continue like this or will someone start piling on the Hash?

yes what we know is the network can do over  1,250 ph as it was doing it for days on end from  jan 22 to feb 14
 so we start picking in 51 blocks.

This does make picks very hard since 100 to 125ph are on the sidelines.

No one knows if a big farm in China was busted stealing power. (we can all hope this is the case)

I want to say keep your eyes peeled for any info on the twitter-reddit- anywhere to confirm if a Chinese farm did get caught.
Oh coins went down to 420 usd this morning.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,324,094,341 (+1.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1467 Blocks, About 10.8 days >>>>>>>  at  1416 we start ( corrected )
Hashrate(?):   1,116,470,561 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.7 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:30 (5.6 minutes ago)

The coins going down is not fun.   But was nice to see the 440 area again even if just a while.  Bitwisdom looks even lower now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    164,747,179,820 (+0.77%)
Adjust time:    After 1451 Blocks, About 10.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,103,231,160 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

I just don't know what to think.  We had crazy high numbers out of no where.   Now were getting more in line with what "normal" was.  So will be interesting to see where we end up.

[philipma1957]

So we are here:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,334,057,582 (+1.13%) diff is pretty low
Adjust time:   After 1447 Blocks, About 10.6 days  >>>>>>> picks will start in 31 blocks.
Hashrate(?):   1,107,952,554 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   12:10 (4.7 minutes ago)

even lower below

http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   399737
Total BTC   15.243M
 
Difficulty   163491654909
Estimated   159126615319 in 1447 blks   this is (-2.67%)  that is amazing !
 
Network total   1132713.091 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.81 / 620 s

[dukeneptun]

I think picks are open right now. It's too hard to guess this time so I'm waiting.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,041,410,938 (+0.95%)
Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 10.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,100,414,853 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

[philipma1957]

first pick

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.

[Mikestang]

Your pick may actually have a chance this adjustment period, Phil!  I would have never though that a couple weeks ago.

I think almost everyone is going to wait until the end to guess on this one...

[ezeminer]

+2.0 = ezeminer

I believe it will be low, but not negative... yet.

[philipma1957]

Your pick may actually have a chance this adjustment period, Phil!  I would have never though that a couple weeks ago.

I think almost everyone is going to wait until the end to guess on this one...

I would Like to see it one time. Before the 1/2 ing

[adaseb]

0.0 = adaseb

[philipma1957]

first pick

-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.


  0.0 = adaseb

+2.0 = ezeminer

[VRobb]

+1.3 = VRobb

Just can't quite get myself to bet on negative... yet!

[VirosaGITS]

Too good to be true

+4.2 = VirosaGITS