Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[philipma1957]

If it lands in the -3.2 slot then I'm going to be kicking myself before I smile at the drop.  My hunch was on that slot but I didn't go with it.  Instead I went with a slight positive figuring the drop was too good to be true.  Oh well... I'd much rather have the drop than be right in this case!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   156,606,361,411 (-4.21%) >>>>>>>> nice number
Adjust time:   After 459 Blocks, About 3.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,115,028,342 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   16:55 (1.4 minutes ago)

maybe  we stay lower then -4%

I would like a rollover since I said fuck it and will let rollover build.

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[HerbPean]

yeahhhh i'm glad my speculation was wrong ! looks like we will be setting around 1100 peta for the rest of the Diff !

My -3,4% doesn't look so risky like I was thinking when I did my pick.   (was guessing 1130p in avg)

[Mikestang]

I does look like the network hash rate is leveling off, almost certain to remain negative this time.  Would be nice to get a couple negatives in a row.  Only a handful of adjustments before the halving!

[Amph]

so miners reached the equilibrium between consumption and earning, which is around 4:1 ratio for 0.05 per electricity

i think in the future they will maintain this, so for every halving expect an increase in value that keep this ratio

[RichBC]

So Yesterday ended up at -2.08% 141 Blocks in the Day. We have got off to a very frisky start Today and the Period run rate has lifted from -5% to -4%, just reminding us how quickly things can change. However I think this is just variance as at the moment we are still in the -4% to -5% band, but could be the start of a push up? We will continue to wait, watch and hope.  


Rich

[philipma1957]

So Yesterday ended up at -2.08% 141 Blocks in the Day. We have got off to a very frisky start Today and the Period run rate has lifted from -5% to -4%, just reminding us how quickly things can change. However I think this is just variance as at the moment we are still in the -4% to -5% band, but could be the start of a push up? We will continue to wait, watch and hope.  


Rich

we are 13 hours and 50 minutes  that is 78 + 5  or an 83 block 'norm'




400829 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 13:48:35
400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10


88 blocks made  so 88 instead of 83   could be a move  maybe  variance

it is +6% for the day and if real would mean  152-153 block day

[FIN_BTC]

168... my guess.

[d57heinz]

Maybe all the chinese farms turned off their Antminers and used those PSUs to power their GPUs; like I did.

This^^^    Bitcoin is in a world of hurt atm.. More alts looking better by the day!.   Nice bump in price on the one i know your talking about adaseb.  Just bought 5 more hd 7970 off ebay  Im turning my attention their.. This coin is for the big boys now.  And all of you thinking bitfury will produce.. Well i wouldnt supprt that POS after this debacle!..  
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48m21t/code_red_bitcoin_is_under_attack_by_miners_based/
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48dzom/antpool_limiting_the_block_size_is_much_more/d0j7sqx

Cant trust nooone.> that is why this system is trustless based.  Get it?

Best Regards
d57heinz

EDIT  But also have to look at it as the chinese are scared of competition.. could be just a jab at them to discredit them.. Too much of this infighting going on its just awful ..   Between the scammers and the all the other bs it seems their is a Bunch of damn "kids" running the show.. And it is grossly apparent more and more each day.

[flikflak]

aww... I missed to place my bet this time. My guess would be -3.1... 4 days ago...

@d57heinz

missing you on kano, I hope you haven't left yet.

[fr4nkthetank]

really you guys think they are all mining eth now ?  I'm thinking all the gear similar to an s3 are all shut down now.  they did make a shitload of those.

[philipma1957]

really you guys think they are all mining eth now ?  I'm thinking all the gear similar to an s3 are all shut down now.  they did make a shitload of those.

the s3's were about 40-60ph

go back to nov 2014 network was 285ph

you had a lot of dragon miners 1 watt
you had s-1----------------------1.1 watt underclock

you had s-4----------------------.7watt

you had s-3---------------------.7 watt
you had sp10--------------------.7watt

now hashnest shut down s-3

and is about ready to shut down s-4

this could account for hash drop

[RichBC]

Definitely think some Hash has been added Today, runrate for the Day is at +10% and seems to holding up too long for variance. If we continue at +5% we will see -3% for the Period and  if it continues at +10% we will see -2% for the Period.

Rich

[Mikestang]

Well I know of at least one S3 that went off-line, mine!  I replaced it with an S5, but I'm pretty sure that doesn't show up on the network difficulty. 

[philipma1957]

Definitely think some Hash has been added Today, runrate for the Day is at +10% and seems to holding up too long for variance. If we continue at +5% we will see -3% for the Period and  if it continues at +10% we will see -2% for the Period.

Rich

I agree


https://blockchain.info/


400873 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 20:00:00

400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10

132 blocks in 20 hours should be 120 blocks  that is +12 or 10%

There is an upside to this.  If we go to -1.2%  which is my pick I am not taking the coin.  which means

A) Bragging rights for me
B) the prize money stays for everyone else
C) I will reset contest  back to .1  ,    but the .8 or .7 left will not get smaller.  I need to check what is left. 

There is .8 in the prize pool

[d57heinz]

aww... I missed to place my bet this time. My guess would be -3.1... 4 days ago...

@d57heinz

missing you on kano, I hope you haven't left yet.

Well ive moved along.  My machines are no longer efficient enough and with so much uncertainty with the halving and bitmain screwing us on pricing i wasnt willing to gamble any more. Im selling what i have on ebay to make up what i Lost due to diversifying in the btc ecosystem.> lets see. ltcgear, hashie.co, friedcat/asicminer, gaw.. i could go on and on.. I could take it a bit easier if i did what was thought to be stupid and put all in one place.. But i did what all the ponzi operators disguised as legendary btc/ltc talk users suggested diversify.. And they all folded!!!.. Ohh and forgot craptsy was the latest one.  Really can we trust any of them at this point??  Had tons of goldcoin i sent their from mining solo at 1 gh/s not knowing the f ing wallet was in maintenance and we all know what happen to them.> So ya im over this shit.  Gonna take a hard look at ethereum.. I mean i did buy 2k of them with only 1 btc back on the presale.. so id say i faired really well there considering i have them safely tucked away>> Plus im mining at 150 mhs and going to be growing more end of this week.   Any time i question whats goin on at kano my shit is deleted.  So meh.  Also i dont like the fact that he thinks he can control what transactions go in what blocks>  I mean they are blocks found by his pool but that takes away some of the security of bitcoin if all miners started doing this.  Lets hope the hell not.   Anyway thats for another discussion not to be had by me.> Im just a no body here .  Not short on opinions tho     Eth is seeing a massive exodus from bitcoin.. Seen this article come up again.. Looks like the effect is moving from usd > btc to btc > eth.. only time will tell. http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/

Best Regards
d57heinz

Edit
 
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48oeo8/seriously_thinking_of_selling_my_btc_at_least/
"Selling your bitcoins is the #1 way that you can force change. It also has a secondary benefit of getting out before everyone else loses money.
Miners aren't going to make any changes until they lose money. These people are not interested in the future of the network - they are greedy corporations like the ones that Satoshi wanted to get rid of.
The best way to punish big business is to hit them in the wallet. People can spin up all the Classic nodes they want, but that doesn't help if there are no blocks to propagate. If you want to force significant change, don't drain your money every month by hosting nodes. Instead, sell your bitcoins, which incurs only a one-time fee, hits miners in their pocketbooks, and gets you out of harm's way.
No matter what happens, the market is going to crash before it goes back up. If miners don't increase the blocksize, people stop using bitcoin and it crashes. If there is a fork, a crash will happen during the period when both forks are listed on exchanges and value shuffles between them. If the Lightning Network is adopted, uncertainty about its acceptance will cause a crash. It's not only the best moral decision, it's the best financial one as well." https://www.reddit.com/user/ProHashing   

damn good response there!!

maybe time to hedge with some eth like so many have already guys.>  its all a gamble either way. but bottom line is i dont see a price rise with all the bs going on either.. Personally i'm surprised it's held this long..  Keep your eyes open to a change in the wind

[flikflak]

Oh, thats really sad to hear. I also lost some bucks at cryptsy too and now the competition is all about the USD/KWh - well, its the same it ever was. But even with 0.11/KWh I'm thinking to quit in a few months, maybe its not the worst idea. Thanks for the eth info.

@all
good luck with your picks (fingers crossed)

[philipma1957]

final picks


-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d


I think the winner will be from  the section above.

We had a hit day today.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456878001413

400898 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 23:59:08

400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10

157 blocks  =   +9%  



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   160,384,294,473 (-1.90%)
Adjust time:   After 284 Blocks, About 2.0 days   -------           this will most likely not be enough blocks to go over +0.7%
Hashrate(?):   1,137,349,263 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   19:20 (3.4 minutes ago)

So when all is said and done  we may be very close to 0%

[adaseb]

Well I shutdown my 2 Antminer S3, only reason was that I needed the power supply to power a few 280X.

Maybe other miners around the world are doing the exact same thing. They all have limited power or PSUs and are changing from BTC to ETH or vice versa.

[notlist3d]

To be honest I'm suprised I'm even in the running.  This period has been a roller coster, looked like down... .now going up a little.  Still would LOVE to see a negative just is a positive thing to have.

Price dropped around 15 dollars in 24 hours... so price not headed where I like it.

[alh]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,148,837,957 (-2.66%)
Adjust time:    After 247 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,125,453,310 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    2:10 (5.6 minutes ago)

I am still confident that I have sign correct on my guess (i.e negative). It may not be quite as negative as I would like, but it will be a welcome relief from the other adjustments this year. With luck, it will land right on Phil's guess, which would be pretty much a win all around!