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Author Topic: Prediction Markets at Fairlay - Suggest your own and Bet on them  (Read 7756 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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March 22, 2016, 01:07:06 PM
 #21

Who will be the Next Editor of US Vogue, when Anna Wintour retires?

With tragic day that brought us Brussels explosions, and that will be followed with new set of US primaries, it is time to mind off a bit with market that is concerned with one light, but at the same time really important, topic: the Next Editor of US Vogue.

It is hard to find more influence Editor-in-Chief that it is Anna Wintour in US Vogue, a position she has held since 1988. She is one of the most important figures in the fashion world but at the same time person whose retirement is expected for years back. In fact, even in 2008 we already had press headlines ‘Is Anna Wintour Ready to Retire?’.

But, another interesting topic is who will take over Vogue after her retirement? In Fairlay markets you have on offer seven names with ‘Other’ option opened if you have someone else in mind. And first favorite at the moment is Glenda Bailey who has spent the last 15 years as the editor of Harper’s Bazaar.

Bailey is followed by Amy Astley, current editor-in-chief of Teen Vogue, and therefore a popular choice. She is given same chances as Lucy Yeomans who was previously the editor of Harper’s Bazaar and now edits the popular fashion website Net-a-Porter.

They are followed by few more popular names in the fashion world, so you (or at least your partner) could have positive opinion on some of them so you can catch great odds at Fairlay. But first, we all have to wait for Anna Wintour to get into the retirement and thus this market will be open till January 1, 2019. Here are your odds:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-editor-of-us-vogue/.
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March 23, 2016, 10:58:13 AM
 #22

Trump won Arizona but will he prevail in Wisconsin?

Yesterday Trump won Arizona and its 58 delegates, while Cruz scored a victory in Utah and appeared poised to win all of its 40 delegates by winning more than 50 percent of the vote there. So now Trump has at least 739 delegates, nearly 60 percent of the total he needs, but Ted Cruz is still confident he is able to stop him.

Next on the schedule for Republicans is Wisconsin primary on April 5, before they move to New York on April 19. Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin for three straight days, starting Wednesday, while he was earlier today also endorsed by Jeb Bush. But, it is the question does this come too late in their attempts to stop Trump.

When it comes to Wisconsin, Trump is still rather favorite to prevail, and the fact that John Kasich is still in race could help his as well as Kasich's votes would surely go into Cruz's favor. But, it is far from decided as Wisconsin is open primary so new voters can register even on election day.

Still, people think that Cruz is undervalued and his early campaign could help him as well. On the other side, opinions are that Brussels attacks will help Trump. Anyway, being the only Republican primary in the next few weeks, Wisconsin will get a lot of attention so you can already find Fairlay markets and place your bets here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-republican-primary/.

And, what are your opinions on the latests and following primaries, and which one would you like to see created?
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March 23, 2016, 03:55:41 PM
 #23

Will Sanders win all three of Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington?

Last night Sanders lost Arizona to Hillary but he easily prevailed in both Utah and Idaho, other two states that voted yesterday. They both held caucuses, so it was once again shown that this format favors the Vermont senator. Because of this he will be a huge favorite in all three states that vote in caucuses on Saturday: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington.

Even Hillary’s team admitted that Sanders will be a huge favorite next weekend but they think that even a string of victories by Sanders over the next few weeks would have little impact on Clinton’s position in the race. And, at the moment, it is almost sure that Sanders will easily close Washington and Alaska caucuses.

But, he is not such a superb favorite in Hawaii caucuses, though even here he is a rather big one and wins in Utah and Idaho are surely going to help him. So, you now have an open market on whether Sanders will win all three caucuses held on Saturday, with great odds if you think that Clinton is able to stop him even in one of the states. Bet here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/sanders-to-win-alaska-hawaii-and-washington/.

So, what is your opinion on following Democrats' caucuses, and what other markets would you like to see created?
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March 24, 2016, 01:24:38 AM
 #24

It would be great if you added some of the major rowing events.

The Boat Race - Oxford vs Cambridge (March 27th, 2016) http://theboatraces.org/

The IRA National Championships - http://www.row2k.com/ira/
Last year's top 12 finishers would serve as the options:
1   WASHINGTON
2   CALIFORNIA
3   PRINCETON
4   BROWN
5   HARVARD
6   NORTHEASTERN
7   YALE
8   BU
9   NAVY
10   CORNELL
11   PENNSYLVANIA
12   COLUMBIA
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March 24, 2016, 04:35:42 PM
 #25

Is Dilma Rousseff facing her last weeks as the president of Brazil?

At the start of the year there was a lot of talk about Dilma Rousseff and thousands of protesters who took to the streets across Brazil as Dilma's government struggled to lift the economy from its most severe crisis in decades. Well, in few months nothing have changed. In fact, The Economist’s newest South American cover is going hugely against her:



So, is is her time to go? It is not on her to decide anymore, as on March 18th Brazil’s congressmen voted to commence impeachment proceedings against the country’s embattled president.  Few phases are to be followed as her future will be decided and what is to follow is nicely explained by The Economist:

Ms Rousseff first needs to convince at least 172 lower-house legislators out of 513 to back her. She has ten congressional sessions, or two or three weeks, to present her defence to a special commission. This body then has five sessions to issue a recommendation to the full house, which must vote on it within 48 hours. If Ms Rousseff’s foes fall short of 342 votes, the case is buried. Should they succeed, senators must then approve, by an absolute majority of 41 out of 81, to accept the lower-house motion. If they do, a trial of up to 180 days begins, presided over by the chief justice of the Supreme Court. During this period, Ms Rousseff steps down and her vice-president, Michel Temer, temporarily takes her place. If at least 54 senators subsequently vote to remove her, Mr Temer would probably serve out the rest of the term, which ends in 2018.

Will Dilma Rousseff remain the president of Brazil through 2016? Probably not. At the moment, 68% of Brazilians say they favor impeachment, so by the end of the April Dilma Rousseff could be without a job. Still, if you think that she will be the president of Brazil till the end of year you have great odds on that at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/dilma-rousseff-to-remain-president-of-brazil-through-2016/.

What is your opinion on this, and what other markets regarding world politics would you like to see created?


It would be great if you added some of the major rowing events.
Great suggestion. We will surely have some of them created in the following days.
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March 25, 2016, 01:20:13 PM
 #26

University Boat Race – Cambridge or Oxford? And by what distance?

Following Sunday, March 27 will give us 162nd annual Univeristy Boat Race between Cambridge and Oxford. Men's race is scheduled for 16:10 on the River Thames that will have quarter of a million people on its banks watching this popular race. Millions will also watch it live on televsion (coverage on BBC2 begins at 14:30), as the light blues of Cambridge will try to end Oxford’s three year domination of the event.

Even though Oxford won the last three races, Cambridge is a favorite in this one as Oxford crew has undergone huge changes this year, with Constantine Louloudis, who captained the dark blues to four wins in the last five years, now gone, and only Jamie Cook returning. In contrast, Cambridge sees four of last year's squad returning, and have added the Great Britain’s oarsman Lance Tredell.

But it is far from decided and how tight the races have been trough the years shows the fact that Cambridge have won the race 81 times, while Oxford have secured the bragging rights on 79 occasions. There was a dead heat in 1877, and you have incredibly high odds if you think that dead heat could occur once again this year. So, either you prefer Oxford or Cambridge, you don’t want to miss the chance to place your bet:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-2016-mens-boat-race-winner/.

Some do think that Oxford could win as the last year winner has advantage, though history doesn’t prove that, or their could win the coin toss and then they can choose their preferred station. Other think that the heavier boat has advantage and this year Cambridge crew is around 11kg heavier than the Oxford crew. And for you who are more in details, you also have markets on the winning distance:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-2016-mens-boat-race-winning-distance/.

So, who do you prefer and are there some other rowing events for which you would like to have created markets?


It would be great if you added some of the major rowing events.

The Boat Race - Oxford vs Cambridge (March 27th, 2016) http://theboatraces.org/

Once again, thank you for the suggestion and some other major rowing events will have its markets created as well.
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March 28, 2016, 12:53:10 PM
 #27

Wisconsin Democratic Primary – Can Sanders continue his good run?

After he won all three caucuses held on Saturday, Bernie Sanders wants to follow those wins with the win at the next Democratic primary that is in Wisconsin on Tuesday, April 5. But, at the same time, Hillary Clinton will want to stop his series of wins as they will follow Wisconsin with caucuses in Wyoming where Sanders is a huge favorite.

Even though Hillary leads at Wisconsin polls, huge amount of people voting in Wisconsin should favor Sanders as there is currently some kind of a Bernie mania, especially among students that tend to vote for Sanders. Wisconsin is also an open primary that favor Sanders more than the close one does, though not as much as caucuses favor him.

The 2008 electorate in Wisconsin was 87 percent white so, considering the high share of white men as compared to black voters, it is also one of the places Sanders should have good chances. But polls still give Hillary nice chances, and she is about to start her campaign there, so Wisconsin primary could be a great market. Place your bets now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-democratic-primary/.

And you already have on offer even more interesting Wisconsin Republican primary that has been opened with Trump as a favorite but now Ted Cruz is one with the bigger chances to prevail. Still, odds on both sides are rather good, with the great ones if you think John Kasich could win there, so don't miss to place your bet if you already didn't:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-republican-primary/.

So, what are your opinions on the Wisconsin primaries, and what others that will follow would you like to see created?
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March 31, 2016, 03:02:37 PM
 #28

Who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron?

With voting on both UK Referendum and the next London Mayor (you can already find these markets in Fairlay's UK Politics section: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/uk-politics/all/), things in London got even worse in recent days as the Prime Minister David Cameron has been convening what he calls Cabinet meetings from which ministers favoring Brexit have been excluded and prevented from seeing papers.

At the same time, some political writers have been asking the question ‘Does David Cameron have to quit as Prime Minister after UK Referendum – regardless of the result?’ So, things are getting interesting and it is probably the right time to open the market on who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron, though in the worst case this market will be resolved only with the next UK general election that is due to be held on 7 May, 2020.

But this market could be resolved much earlier if Cameron quits and so there are already talks who could his successor be. At the same time there are talks about the next leader of the Conservative party as many think that leadership election of this party could be held right after the UK Referendum. So, this leadership election could in a part decide who will be the first favorite for the next Prime Minister and at the moment that is Boris Johnson.

Current London Mayor is seen as a person who is able to re-establish the UK as strong voice. After Johnson, second person that is seen amongst the favorites for the next Prime Minister is George Osborne. But, he is also seen as a boring and cold personality. Theresa May is seen as the third favorite to become the next Tory leader and she is at the same time the fourth favorite to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Still, if the Conservative party develops more problems, this could open a chance for Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour Party, to become the next Prime Minister and because of this he is a third favorite overall. Anyway, when it comes to the UK politics, interesting months are ahead of us and they could also decide who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron. Anyway, it is not so soon to place your bets at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-prime-minister-after-david-cameron/.

So, what is your opinion about these questions, and what other UK Politics markets would you like to bet on?
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April 04, 2016, 04:04:17 PM
 #29

Official England Euro 2016 Song Artist – Stormzy or Louis Tomlinson?

England national football team will hardly ever have a better official song than it did with ‘Three Lions’ in 1996. Still, every big football tournament (though, for some reason, no official song released in 2010) produces one official and couple of unofficial songs, and these days we expect the confirmation of the artist who will record one for Euro 2016.

At the moment, it is still far from certain who will record this one but there are a lot of talks that it should be either Grime MC Stormzy or One Direction's Louis Tomlinson. Well-known pop star and football fan Tomlinson is the second favorite, as Stormzy became the first favorite with the sayings that fans have been backing him with their own money.

These two are followed by Tinie Tempah and Kaiser Chiefs, while you have great odds if you think any other artist could record England official song. Anyway, Football's (Not) Coming Home but you can still make money if you guess right whose song you’ll be listening to when England starts playing Euro 2016 matches, so place your bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/official-england-euro-2016-song-artist/.

So, who is your favorite for this market, and what other interesting Euro 2016 markets would you like to see created?
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April 05, 2016, 02:58:08 PM
 #30

BAFTA TV Awards – Who will win them for Best Actor, Actress, Drama, Soap, Entertainment Programme?

Season of movie and music awards is behind us, so for those who love those kinds of ceremonies, with awards and nominations, BAFTA TV Awards is a popular one at the moment. Nominations were announced last week and ceremony will be held on May 8, so you already have at Fairlay markets offer some of the most popular categories.

Historical drama “Wolf Hall” leads the nomination race as this miniseries took four nominations, and is the first favorite for the Best Drama Series. “Humans”, science fiction television series, is the second favorite in this category, while other two nominations are “No Offence” and “The Last Panthers” that is given really small chances for an award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Drama Series: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-drama-series/.

Mark Rylance, who two months ago won an Oscar for “Bridge of Spies“, is the first favorite for the Best Actor Award, as he is another “Wolf Hall” nomination. Second favorite is the last year winner, Idris Elba, for his role in “Luther”, while other two nominations are Stephen Graham for “This Is England '90“ and Ben Whishaw for “London Spy“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actor: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actor/.

“Wolf Hall” also has a nomination for the Best Actress Award as Claire Foy received one, though she is not the first favorite.  Biggest chances for the Best Actress Award are given to Sheridan Smith for “The C-Word“ and Suranne Jones for “Doctor Foster“, while Ruth Madeley for “Don’t Take My Baby“ is given the smallest chances.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actress: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actress/.

At the moment, biggest favorite in any of the categories is “Adele at the BBC”, for the Best Entertainment Programme Award. She could be challenged by “Strictly Come Dancing”, another BBC1 programme, while other two nominations are for “Britain’s Got Talent”, and “TFI Friday anniversary special” that is given almost no chances for award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Entertainment Programme: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-entertainment-programme/.

Always interesting category is that one for the Best Soap and Continuing Drama Award. For now, the first favorite to take the award is Coronation Street, though good chances for the win are also given to “EastEnders“. Other two nominations, though with the rather small chances for the win, are given to “Emmerdale“ and “Holby City“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Soap and Continuing Drama: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-soap-and-continuing-drama/.

All in all, you have plenty of markets to place your bets on, and surely some of your favorite shows have received nominations, and you can also note if you want to see markets for some others categories created as well.
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April 06, 2016, 12:19:32 PM
 #31

Next Presidential primaries – Will Clinton and Trump close New York?

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump lost their Wisconsin primaries last night, so now they can completely move their focuses to New York primaries that are scheduled for Tuesday, April 19. At the same time, after last night’s wins, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz can hope to achieve more in New York then they were about to before good Wisconsin results.

Schedule of primaries goes even more in favor to Bernie Sanders as Wyoming Democratic caucuses are scheduled for the following Saturday, April 9, and he will almost surely prevail there. Wyoming is the least populated state with white conservatives that mostly vote for Bernie, while he won previous caucuses and will surely win one is Wyoming as well.

So, New York primary will be as important as one primary gets. Even with Bernie’s momentum, Hillary is still favorite to win New York (recent polls go 53%-43% in her favor, with 4% undecided), though Sanders chances are getting bigger from day to day. Anyway, New York primary could be most important moment of the campaign so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-democratic-primary/.

On the other side, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win New York as Ted Cruz and John Kasich will probably divide anti-Trump suppoter’s votes (last polls have Trump at 52%, Kasich at 21%, Cruz at 17%). Still, by losing Wisconsin, Donald Trump is getting stopped from securing his nomination and gets frustrated as they are going towards convention fight.

Nice victory for Ted Cruz in Wisconsin puts additional pressure on Trump in his home state primaries as he now wants to win big in New York, as just win is no good for him. All in all, Trump is still a huge favorite for winning New York but if you think he could lost support in the next two weeks, then you have great odds on both Kasich and Cruz. Bet now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-republican-primary/.

What are your opinions on the New York primaries, and what other primary markets would you like to have on offer?
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April 07, 2016, 11:44:20 AM
 #32

Will woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General?

At the start of December we already talked about the election for the next U.N. Secretary-General but these days it once again became the trending topic as Guardian announced that UN will hold Secretary-General job hustings for first time ever, so contenders will explain ideals and intentions to general assembly and hold public debates in New York and London.

These public debates will surely be interesting as for the UN’s first 70 year, the Secretary-General was chosen behind closed doors by the major powers on the security council, and only then presented to the general assembly for approval. Date of final election is still not confirmed, as current holder Ban Ki-moon prepares to step down at the end of this year.

So far eight candidates have declared their bids and the last one is Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and current Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. With her nomination, question of the next Secretary-General being a woman was once again opened as all the Secretary-Generals to date have been men.

A the moment there is a strong push to select a woman this timeand at the moment we have four of them among the official candidates. But, more candidates are about to bid, among which are the Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet, and in recent weeks there has been a growing buzz around the idea that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, could bid as well.

With some strong woman already declaring their bids, and some even stronger about to bid, it is not a surprise that Fairlay has market placed around 70% for the woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General. But, what is your opinion on this? You can use following public debates to form one, or bet right now, having great odds if you think men are in favor:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/.
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April 11, 2016, 12:10:54 PM
 #33

How many delegates will Trump win? More than 1,200? Less than 1,150?

These days, US Politics is mostly about the number of delegates so they really deserve its own market to which you can place predictions as we wait for the New York Primaries scheduled for the next Tuesday, April 19. Of course, when it comes to the number of delegates, it is mostly about those Donald Trump needs to seal the Republican nomination.

So, let's get straight to numbers. The magic number of delegates needed to seal the Republican nomination is 1,237. At the moment, Donald Trump has 743 of them (Ted Cruz is at 545), and we have 854 delegates remaining.

By FiveThirtyEight estimations, Trump is currently at 92% of target (you can use their great graphics for delegate targets: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), so with this, the first option in this market is that he will win 1,201 or more delegates and for it the most chances are given (around 43% at the moment).

Still, this market is far from decided as most people think that Trump won't seal the nomination after primaries, and that he could easily go under 1,200 delegates, staying in the range of 1,151 - 1200 that is second option in the market.

But, if Donald Trump starts to lose his momentum with the April primaries, he could even give up before the closing June primaries and with momentum shifting to Ted Cruz, Trump could finish these primaries with 1,150 or less delegates. That is the third option in this ' How many delegates will Trump win?' market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-many-delegates-will-trump-win/.

What is your opinion on this market? Are you sure in some of the options and do you think he will seal the nomination?
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April 12, 2016, 03:03:06 PM
 #34

Will Usain Bolt and Mo Farah win all the gold medals at Olympics’ 100m, 200m, 5000m, and 10000m events?

We are left with only 115 day till Olympics in Rio so it is time to start creating and betting on more Olympics markets. Since January, you had open market for a country that wins most gold medals in Rio (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals/), with USA Olympics team having the most chances.

But now it is time to add some individual markets and it is best to start with Usain Bolt and Mo Farah as they are often talked about as athletes that could once again be Olympic heroes of their states. So, can both of them win both gold medals in their favorite events or will someone manage to stop at least one, or even both of them, in August in Rio?

Usain Bolt, being the first man to hold both the 100m and 200m world records since fully automatic time measurements became mandatory in 1977, is regarded as the fastest person ever timed, so it will be a rather surprise if he doesn’t confirm his domination in Rio, as he won both 100m and 200m at both Beijing 2008 and London 2012 Olympics.

Usain Bolt to win the 100m and 200m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/usain-bolt-to-win-the-100m-and-200m-gold-medals/.

Mo Farah is less popular than Bolt but he is a superb distance runner, and he was a gold medalist in both 5000m and 10,000m at London 2012. Completing that double again at 2015 World Championships in Athletics, he became the second man in history to win long-distance doubles at successive Olympics and World Championships. It is time for Rio.

Mo Farah to win the 5000m and 10000m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mo-farah-to-win-the-5000m-and-10000m-gold-medals/.

So, what are your opinions on their gold medals chase and which other Olympics markets would you like to see created?
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April 13, 2016, 05:21:50 PM
 #35

What will be the Bitcoin Price 30 days after the Block Halving?

We are left with 89 days till The Block Halving (in mid July, the amount of new bitcoins awarded to bitcoin miners will drop from 3,600 BTC per day to 1,800 BTC per day, and with that, the annual increase in the bitcoin money supply will drop from 9.17% to 4.09%), so its effect on the bitcoin price is these days the trending topic in the bitcoin community.

There are plenty of opinions regarding this effect. Most are sure that the price will increase: they differ from those who think that it will happen in the following weeks, to those who think it will happen only weeks or even months after the halving is done. There are also those who think halving is already influencing the price and it would be lower without it.

On the other side, there are some who think that increase in price won’t happen, if fact, they are even sure that it will go down, and some think that other factors will influence the price more than halving alone. Anyway, all these opinions show that it is hard to predict right how will the Bitcoin price change in the following months, and months after halving.

As most of you have own opinions on this matter, you now have on offer open prediction market at Fairlay, so you can earn additional bitcoins if you guess right the price of Bitcoin 30 days after the halving, but also show your opinion. You have four options on offer. From $400 or less, to $400,01 - $450; and $450,01 - $500, and one being $500,01 or higher:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/.

So, what is your opinion on the Bitcoin price (a month) after the halving? In which range will it be in that moment?
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April 14, 2016, 01:17:35 PM
 #36

Who will win the French presidential election? Alain Juppe? Nicolas Sarkozy? Marine Le Pen?

Couple of months ago, Politico had a great article about the 2017 French presidential election campaign titled ''Art of comeback in French politics: First, write a book'' in which it is noted that the next years' campaign is starting as a grand book tour. And, interestingly, it is easy to compare this 'book tour' with the chances they are given in a year from now.

At the moment, the first favorite at the French presidential election (scheduled to be held in April and May 2017) is Alain Juppe, Mayor of Bordeaux and former Prime Minister, who is given around 40% to become the President. At the same time, he has written two books since the summer of 2014, and intends to publish two more by the end of this year.

So, with this in mind, it is not a surprise that the second favorite is former president Nicolas Sarkozy, whose book ''France for Life'' has been at the top of France’s best-seller lists. Okay, let’s get serious a bit as the current president and the third favorite to win (re-)election is Francois Hollande who is all but a great writer, though he did write as well.



But the current President has also lost the political capital built up after the Paris attacks, while National Fronte leader Marine Le Pen is also taking time to regroup so she is not given huge chances at the moment. It is similar with the current Prime Minister Manuel Valls, with only 10% of chances, still more than anyone out of these five candidates.

French people surely like to read so it will be interesting to see how many books in the following 12 months will those most important candidates publish, and how will that influence their campaign and election results. But, till then, don’t miss the chance to use the great odds Fairlay offers on any of these writers, ups, candidates at the French election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.

What is your opinion on this Presidential election, and what other European politics markets you want to see created?
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April 16, 2016, 10:20:05 AM
 #37

Who will be Palme d'Or Winner at the following Cannes 2016 Film Festival?

The initial lineup for the 69th French film festival has been announced yesterday, including 20 films screening in competition. This year’s Cannes is scheduled to be held from 11 to 22 May 2016, with the winners being announced on the last day. So, till then you will have an open market on Fairlay for the Palme d'Or Winner:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/palme-dor-winner-1/.

First favorite at the moment is movie ‘Sieranevada’ by Romanian film director and screenwriter Cristi Puiu who earlier both  won and was nominated for ‘Un Certain Regard Award’ in Cannes. But still, he is far from a huge favorite as this year’s competition selection in one of the strongest in recent years.



Puiu is followed by ‘Julieta’, Pedro Almodovar’s latest drama that’s already been released to positive reviews in Spain. New Jim Jamursh’s low-key drama ‘Paterson’ is also ranked high, as well as the movie ‘I, Daniel Blake’ by Ken Loach who previously won the Palme d’Or for ‘The Wind That Shakes the Barley’.

Xavier Dolan’s latest film, ‘Juste la fin du monde’ will premiere in competition, as well as Jeff Nichols’ drama ‘Loving’ about an interracial marriage in 50s America. Those two movies, together with Cristian Mungiu’s movie ‘Bacalaureat’, are currently among the first seven favorites for this year’s Palme d'Or Winner.

Some of your favorite directors, or actors, are probably in competition as well, and if they are not included amongst the top contenders you can use the great odds on the option ‘Other’ that covers all the other movies. Anyway, it is less than a month till one of the most popular Film Festivals so you have enough time to predict your favorite.
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April 18, 2016, 08:20:45 PM
 #38

Who will die and who will survive the Season 6 of Game of Thrones?

We are only one week away from Game of Thrones Season 6 premiere, and as everyone is talking about it, with lot of ‘Ifs’, it is time to offer you set of Game of Thrones markets. It is all about Valar morghulis, so you have eight markets on eight different characters, and you only need to predict right which of them will survive Season 6. Or die in it.

And for the first time, those deaths will be surprise for everyone as season five caught up with the books and began to introduce plot developments from beyond the five published novels. So, books can’t help you. Or, can they? And what is with teasers and trailers? Well, in a scary way they showed that everyone is in danger, even Tyrion and Daenerys.

Could even Cersei Lannister be in danger, or the worst things are behind her? Well, chances that she will die are small but she could surely influence some of the deaths. But, who will she go after? Probably after The High Sparrow whose chances to stay alive are not great, but also after the other queen, Margaery Tyrell. Wait, not the beautiful one.

The High Sparrow to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-high-sparrow-to-die-in-season-6-1/
Cersei Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/cersei-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/


Still, Natalie Dormer (who plays Margaery Tyrell) said that "Cersei is the least of Margaery's problems" in Season 6, so she is surely in huge problems and thus one of the favorites to die. At the same time, Jaime Lannister is one of those who should survive the following season but he already had enough problems to deserve market on his death.

Margaery Tyrell to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/margaery-tyrell-to-die-in-season-6/
Jaime Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jaime-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/


But Jamie’s life has been a joyful experience if we compare it to that of Theon Greyjoy. Is he finally free? Probably yes but he is still amongst those with higher chances to die in the following season. It is the same with his ‘best friend’ Ramsay Bolton who could do some nasty things after he finds out that both Reek and Sansa have left him.

Theon Greyjoy to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/theon-greyjoy-to-die-in-season-6/
Ramsay Bolton to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ramsay-bolton-to-die-in-season-6/


As she is probably the only person who can bring John Snow back, Melisandre could have important role in Season 6. But could playing with fire and dark side cost her life? Well, she is far away from the safe ones. And, sadly for him, it is almost sure that Jorah Mormont won’t survive the following season. Or could he make a surprise by staying alive?

Melisandre to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/melisandre-to-die-in-season-6/
Jorah Mormont to die Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jorah-mormont-to-die-in-season-6/


What is your opinion on all the possible deaths in the following season? Who will survive and who will die? And, would you like to have the same market created for some other characters, or do you want to have some other Game of Thrones markets? We are only one week away from Season 6, so place your predictions and enjoy it. Valar morghulis!
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April 19, 2016, 02:42:02 PM
 #39

Who will be 2016 TIME Person of the Year Winner? Hillary, Trump, Migrants, Soldiers?

“Europe’s most powerful leader is a refugee from a time and place where her power would have been unimaginable,“ wrote TIME magazine in December last year when explaining why Angela Merkel was their Person of the Year for 2015. Could we this year have the same sentence with World instead of Europe and Hillary Clinton instead of Angela Merkel?

In the year with US Presidential Election, the new US President could easily be TIME's Person of the Year. And Hillary Clinton is going towards that at the moment, and thus she is by far the first favorite in this market. She is followed with Donald Trump as a second favorite, and Ted Cruz as fifth, as they are both still in race for the next US President.

Person of the Year is an annual issue of the United States news magazine Time that features and profiles a person, group, idea or object that "for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year". Because of this, group could once again be Person of the Year and both Migrants and Soldiers are amongst popular candidates.

Still, it is only April, so plenty of things could happen till December, thus option 'Other' could also be a good choice as we could have some winners out of the first five in our market. Maybe Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, or Pope Francis. Anyway, there are plenty of candidates, and odds (on all but Hillary Clinton) are superb so make your prediction at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/time-person-of-the-year-winner/.

Who is your favorite this year, and what other similar markets would you like to see created? And don't forget, you can put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.
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April 20, 2016, 06:56:23 PM
 #40

Who will win the Rhode Island Democratic primary?

After both of them easily won New York primaries yesterday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump once again regained all the control in their parties, while stopping Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz. As Hillary’s nomination is almost confirmed, Trump is once again looking like a strong candidate. And all the following primaries are about to confirm that as well.

In fact, it is almost certain that Trump and Hillary will win all primaries held by both parties in five countries next Tuesday. Only primary that is even is Democratic one in the Rhode Island and thus you have an open market on it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-rhode-island-democratic-primary/.

Recent, but still rather rare, pools showed that the Rhode Island race between Hillary and Sanders is really tight. So, most people are certain that this is the only country that Sanders could win next Tuesday but others are not so sure that his voters didn’t give up already. And Hillary is going to campaign there on Saturday, after the great New York win.

Still, Rhode Island is white and middle class that suits Sanders, and it is semi closed primary which will benefit Sanders as well. All in all, it could be rather even primary and that means good odds on any of the sides that you chose to bet on.
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