Prediction Markets at Fairlay - Suggest your own and Bet on them

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Austrian presidential election - Who will win it?

Following Sunday, Austria will hold a presidential election, with a run off scheduled for 22 May if no candidate manages to win an absolute majority in the first vote. This election will be dominated by the issue of the migration crisis, while it is also a key test of the relative standing of each of the main parties. So, who are the favorites for the next President?

Currently, all the talk is mostly about three candidates. Alexander Van der Bellen, the former Green party leader, appears to be leading the polls and he is followed by Norbert Hofer. Third in the polls is the independent Irmgard Griss, while other candidates are not given such the big chances. 

So, it will be interesting to see who will replace Heinz Fischer, who served two terms in office. Both Griss and Van der Bellen are seen as liked and honest, while many think that Hofer shouldn’t be as popular as he is. Still, biggest chances to go to a run off are given to Van der Bellen and Hofer. Then anything can happen. Here is your market on this election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-presidential-election/.

Who is your favorite in this Austrian presidential election, and what other politic markets would you want to bet on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

When will Segregated Witness be activated? Before, or after July 15?

This year is bringing the explosion of innovation in the Bitcoin software, and few days ago things moved even more forwards as Bitcoin core developer Pieter Wuille completed a long-awaited (or not so long) upgrade to the bitcoin protocol. It is named Segregated Witness, or 'SegWit' for short.

How important this update is, show the comments that Segregated Witness might be the most significant improvement to the Bitcoin protocol ever. It is set to fix transaction malleability, offers an effective block size increase, enables development flexibility and so on. So, when it will be activated?

Well, three days ago, Wuille submitted a pull request that is proposal to merge SegWit into the Bitcoin Core's master branch. After this Review, it will be offered to the public through a new Bitcoin Core release. And then, it is only about miners (at least those representing 95% of hash power) to lock in this soft fork.

About two weeks after this locking, Segregated Witness is activated. And, this being trending topic in the Bitcoin community, you already have an idea when will this happen and now you also have an open market at Fairlay. Date set is July 15 and you only need to predict will the activation happen before or after it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/segregated-witness-to-be-activated-before-july-15/.

So, what is your opinion on this market, and what other Bitcoin related markets would you like to have created soon?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Can Doland Trump win over 50% of votes in all five Tuesday primaries?

Another kind of Super Tuesday is ahead of us as five primaries will be held tomorrow, with the huge chances that we will see Super Trump winning all five of them in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Even the fact that Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced that they had reached a deal on a strategy to deny Trump the Republican nomination will hardly stop his delegate count from increasing once again. But how superb will Trump be?

Some think that his recent anger will increse his support so much that he will win all five countries tomorrow with more than 50% of votes. It is hardly to happen, but this 'Super Win' deserves the market that you now have open at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/trump-to-go-over-50-in-all-five-tuesday-primaries/.

So, what is your opinion? Donald Trump did win New York with 60%, so can he use that momentum to go over 50% in all five countries holding their primaries tomorrow? He is a huge favorite in all of them, but how far can he truly reach?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will be the next U.N. Secretary-General? Irina Bokova, Helen Clark, Angela Merkel?

For the last year there was a lot of talk whether the next U.N. Secretary-General will be a woman and you already have an open market on that topic (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/) but it is time to get more specific and start talking about the name of the potential Ban Ki-Moon successor.

Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General. Thus, it is not surprise that the first favorite at the moment is Bulgarian Irina Bokova, currently Director-General of UNESCO.

Another big name recently added as a candidate, that is now the second favorite, is Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, is still not an official candidate but is one of the strongest potential one and thus she is ranked amongst the favorites as well.

First favorite amongst the male candidates is former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Guterres, while good chances are also given to Danilo Turk, former President of Slovenia. Still, there are rather big chances for a female to prevail so good chances are also given to potential candidates Kristalina Georgieva, and even Angela Merkel. Here is the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-u-n-secretary-general/.

So, there are plenty of candidates to place your bet on and all of them are currently with the great odds, and the next U.N. Secretary-General should be known by the end of the year. Who is your favorite?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Are Hillary and Trump on their ways to close Indiana primaries as well?

Another Tuesday, and another set of big wins for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, as both Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are almost out of the race for their party nomination. And after five primaries held yesterday, following Tuesday will have only one, set in Indiana. Both parties will hold their primaries as Trump and Hillary continue their domination.

How serious Donald Trump is about winning Indiana shows the fact that he has already begun opening his wallet for the air war, spending more than $900,000 on TV and radio ads. So, Indiana is getting serious, as some think that it now the place where Trump can’t win the nomination but it’s where he can lose it. So, can Ted Cruz harm him at least there?

Cruz is hoping for a replay of Wisconsin, another Midwestern state where a united GOP front helped him defeat Trump on April 5, but Trump is still the one leading three most recent Indiana public polls. Winner of Indiana will likely emerge with at least 45 of the 57 delegates, thus May 3 is another important date, so place your own prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-republican-primary/.

Indiana Democratic Primary is not as important as Republican, but Hillary surely wants to confirm her nomination. Last night she lost only in the Rhode Island, and winning four other states she completely moved momentum on her side. How big that momentum is shows the fact that she is already moved her focus from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump.

So, can Bernie use that to win Indiana? Well, probably not, though he has bigger chances than he had in New York and four states he lost last night. It is mostly because Indiana has a large white population that could favor him, and that is why people think he can defeat Hillary here. But can he really do it, or will Hillary easily close another state? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on the Indiana primaries, and what other of primaries scheduled for May would you like to bet on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will win Eurovision semi-finals?

Eurovision Song Contest is already one of the most popular markets on Fairlay (you have odds for outright winner at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/), so it is time to offer you markets on both Semi Final winners as those semis are scheduled for May 10, and May 12, with final evening on May 15.

Besides France, Russia is the biggest favorite for the win in the end, so it is not a surprise that it is also by far the biggest favorite to win the first Semi Final in which Sergey Lazarev participates. Amongst other favorites are Malta and Armenia, so if you think that any of these two, or any other country could make a surprise, find great odds on them at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Second Semi Final will be much more interesting as there is no big favorite for the win, and almost all counties could close it. Still, the first two favorites are Australia and Ukraine, but Latvia and Bulgaria could also get plenty of votes. It is same with Serbia, or in fact any other country. Thus, you have great odds if you guess right the Semi Final 2 winner: 

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

What is your opinion on Eurovision 2016, who is your favorite, and would you like to have some additional markets?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Donald Trump win 1,237 delegates?
 
There are but few more talked about numbers than it is the magic number of 1,237. There are talks that it could happen even if it is lower, but this is currently the number of delegates Donald Trump needs to win if he wants to secure his nomination as the Republican Presidential Candidate, prior to the GOP National Convention. So, will he reach it?

Few weeks ago (by FiveThirtyEight estimations at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/) he was 92% of target, but with good results in the recent primaries, he is now 97% of target, and following primaries should go in his favor. Currently, he is at 994 delegates won, so only 243 delegates short of his nomination.

Some still think that he will not reach it, and current talk that Hillary would easily defeat him in November is not going in his favor, as well as coalition between Ted Cruz and John Kasich in order to stop him from reaching 1,237 delegates. But, for months nothing is going in Trump's favor and he is still going towards nomination. Will he prevail? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-donald-trump-win-1-237-delegates/.

This market will be open till Indiana primaries following Tuesday, on which you can bet at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/. And, are there more similar markets that you would like to place your predictions on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Austrian presidential election, second round run-off: Can Alexander Van der Bellen stop Norbert Hofer?

A week ago presidential election was held in Austria, but no candidate received a majority of the vote so a second round run-off is scheduled for May 22. Second round will be really interesting as we are left with Norbert Hofer, the first round winner of the Freedom Party of Austria, and Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Austrian Greens contesting as an independent, placed second in the first round.

Norbert Hofer got surprisingly huge 36% after the first round, leaving Van der Bellen at 21%, but he is still far from winning position, as recent poll gives them 50%-50% chances. Norbert Hofer has already threatened to dissolve parliament before 2018 elections, so Austria is braced for political turmoil with fears that victory for a rightwing populist and gun-carrying candidate could trigger snap elections.

But, partly because of claims that he protects himself in the uncertain times of the refugee crisis by carrying a Glock gun, Norbert Hofer scored overwhelming victories in all of Austria’s states apart from Vienna. So, can Van der Bellen, an outsider candidate who ran for office without the official endorsement of the Green party and has criticized the Austrian government’s cap on asylum seekers, stop Hofer from becoming the next President?

In Van der Bellen’s favor goes the fact that the established parties will do their best to stop a rightwing populist from coming to power, but even with that it is hard to make any prognosis. And momentum is with Norbert Hofer whose party will try to frame the following election around the refugees question. Anyway, it will be the first time since 1945 that the president has not come from the two centrist parties, and you can predict at Fairlay who will it be:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-election-next-president/.

Fairlay market is even at the moment, but what is your opinion on this election? And what are similar markets considering politics that you would like to place your predictions on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?

Craig  Steven Wright reveals himself as Satoshi Nakamoto! This was worldwide top story this morning, this time announced by BBC, GQ, and The Economist. But, is he really? The Economist followed well with the note ‘Mr Wright could well be Mr Nakamoto, but nagging questions remain’.  Wright tried to present some proofs but they don’t look strong at all, so will he follow them with the stronger ones, and confirm that he is indeed Satoshi Nakomoto?

“We have again asked Mr Wright to provide additional information so we can independently verify that he is in possession of the cryptographic keys that would prove that he is Mr Nakamoto. We have requested that he provide a corrected version of his initial proof. And we have asked him to use private keys he supposedly has in his possession to sign the first paragraph of our first article, including the date, which would be even better proof of his identity,” was written later today on The Economist, as Craig Wright’s claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto came under fire.

So, can Mr Wright prove that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Mr Nakamoto should have? “If someone were to successfully sign with the Satoshi PGP key, it would not prove that he is Satoshi,” said Jerry Brito, the executive director of Coin Center. But, it would certainly be the first step and, as this is trending topic in Bitcoin community, you now have an open market on Fairlay ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-has-satoshi-nakamotos-private-pgp-key/.


Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?

Other evidence that Craig Steven Wright is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto could be proving that he is the miner of early blocks. In his today’ blog post Wright said that he does indeed control the key for block 9 and gave a step-by-step explanation of how this can be proven. He has also demonstrated this verification in person to The Economist - both for block 9, and block 1, though such demonstrations can be stage-managed.

The Economist writer says that “as far as we can tell he indeed seems to be in possession of the keys, at least for block 9”. Problem is that Wright doesn’t want to make public the proof for block 1, arguing that block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly linked to Nakamoto. But, if he wants to prove that he is the real Satoshi, he will need to do this as well, so here is another Fairlay market – ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-is-the-miner-of-block-1/.

What is your opinion on this Craig Steven Wright topic? Do you think that he is a smart fraud, or he can really provide some of the proof? But even if he provides some of them, will that be enough to prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto? Many questions are currently open, plenty of people want to close them as soon as possible, so hurry up to place your predictions at Fairlay, and suggest your own markets considering this, or any other relevant topic.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Gary Lineker keep his word and present Match of the Day in his underwear?

Last night Leicester City defied 5000-1 odds to become Premier League champion and thus one of the most beautiful sport stories ever got its perfect ending. Plenty of their fans made huge money by using these incredible odds, but it is now time for their most popular fan to keep his words:



Former England football captain Gary Lineker, who has been presenting BBC TV’s principal football programme Match of the Day since 1999, made the pledge that he will do the first MOTD of the next season in just his undies, if his former and local club makes the most unlikely of championship wins. Leicester did it, so it is time for him to keep his word.

In March Lineker confirmed he will remain true to his word and appear before millions of television viewers in his underwear. Now you have an open market at Fairlay will he, on August 13, indeed present MOTD in his underwear, but note that it is resolved as No if he wears it over his trousers:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gary-lineker-to-present-motd-in-his-underwear/.


Is Jose Mourinho going to coach Zlatan Ibrahimovic in Manchester United next season?

As football season is getting towards its end, there is plenty of transfer talk, and it is not only about players but also about managers. With Jose Mourinho being free since December, his next club is one of the trending topics in football community. From the biggest world clubs, to some national teams, to even Leeds United’s boss asking him to show how big he is by training club that doesn’t have world's top players.

But, after months of talks, it looks like Jose Mourinho will once again be in the English Premier League as he is close to making a deal with Manchester United, and there are talks that it could be confirmed even this week. But, Paris Saint-Germain wants him as its manager as well, as plenty of clubs do, so now you can make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jose-mourinhos-next-club/.



And, if he comes to Manhcester United, will he be followed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic  who in March joked that he will stay at Paris Saint-Germain if his statue replaces the Eiffel Tower. So, his chances to stay in France are small, but where will he go next? Manchester United is indeed his first option, but plenty of English Premier League clubs are as well.

Arsenal and Chelsea are not big surprises, but it is a bit of surprise that West Ham want him in its team. If he doesn't go to England, there are even chances that he could leave Europe for some big money in China or in one of the MSL teams. Anyway, there are chances that he and Jose Mourinho will be in Manchester United next season, but you have great odds if you guess right Zlatan's next club, weather it is United or any other:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/zlatan-ibrahimovics-next-club/.

What is your opinion on these markets, and what other Football Specials would you like to have created at Fairlay?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Ted Cruz is out, so will John Kasich drop out before June?

Last night it was officially confirmed: There will be no “Stop Trump” candidate, not after his 15-plus-point win in Indiana.

Donald Trump won Indiana Primary with 53.3%, Ted Cruz dropped out of presidential race after losing Indiana with 36.6%, and the last man standing against Trump is John Kasich who won 7.6% last night. So, if Cruz dropped out of race, why is Kasich, who won in total only 153 delegates, staying in it?

“Tonight’s results are not going to alter Gov. Kasich’s campaign plans,” read the memo from Kasich chief strategist John Weaver. “Our strategy has been and continues to be one that involves winning the nomination at an open convention.”



Since last night it is clear that Trump will win nomination before open convention, so Kasich can give up as well. Will he?

He has only won one contest, his home state of Ohio, and is currently in fourth place in the delegate race. Even Marco Rubio, who left the race in March, still has more delegates than Kasich. Still, it looks like he doesn’t want to give up before Trump wins 1,237 delegates. Many say he is delusional.

And Trump is now 190 delegates short, with four primaries more in May. Thus the question is, will John Kasich drop out before June and ending primaries, or he will stay till the end? Here is Fairlay market for you to place your prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-john-kasich-drop-out-before-june-1/.

What is your opinion on John Kasich, is he really delusional? And what other Presidential markets you want to bet on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

With both Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race after losing Indiana Primary, it is sure that Donald Trump will be Republican Candidate for the President. So, now it is time to reopen question of his Vice Presidential Candidate.

If someone is unpredictable then it is Donald Trump, so at the moment all the different names are in contest. Especially with the fact that Trump's inner circle remains devoid of establishment types, so we quickly get into a situation where the people talking don't know much and the people who do know aren't talking. But, few names are talked about.

"I think Chris Christie is fantastic," Trump said recently. And no one has risked more with his support for Trump than Christie, who has been roundly mocked and dismissed by the GOP establishment for the decision, and two of them look like a good match. But the problem could be that Christie doesn't add a ton to the Trump ticket. Does Trump care?

But if Trump wanted to add a ton to his ticket, Joni Ernst would be a great option. She has been critical of Trump's comments about women but she is a gifted communicator and someone who might help sell Trump to the Midwestern voters he badly needs if he wants to be competitive with Clinton. So, could she be the perfect choice?

And we also have people who recently raced against him, like John Kasich who gave up just last night and who was on rather friendly terms with Trump throughout the race. Or Marco Rubio who could help Trump with outreach to establishment Republicans and help Trump to avoid an electoral disaster in the Hispanic community.

And there are few more popular names like Newt Gingrich or Susana Martinez, or even Ben Carson and Jeff Sessions. Anyway, all is far from certain so any option on your Vice Presidential Candidate offers great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate/.

So, who is your favorite for the Republican Candidate for Vice President, and do you want some similar markets created?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Is Bernie Sanders about to win West Virginia Democratic primary? Or can Hillary prevail?

After win in Indiana this Tuesday, Bernie Sanders is positive he can win West Virginia Democratic primary following Tuesday. He is a rather big favorite, but can Hillary prevail as recent polls show that she is not without chances, as many think?

Metro News West Virginia Poll announced today that in the Democratic presidential race, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters backed Sanders, 43 percent said they supported Hillary Clinton, and 11 percent were not sure.

As it was all year, Sanders’ strength is among people between the ages of 18 and 34, and he hopes there will be a high turnout with young voters. But his other strength is Donald Trump who tweeted today: ‘Crooked Hillary has ZERO leadership ability. As Bernie Sanders says, she has bad judgment. Constantly playing the women's card - it is sad!’

So, it looks like Trump can help Bernie win West Virginia. At the same time, the fact that West Virginia holds semi-open primaries goes in Hillary’s favor. Anyway, Bernie is the favorite but those who think Hillary could prevail, despite being attacked by Donald Trump, have great odds on her win at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-west-virginia-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on this primary, and what other US Presidential Election markets would you like to see created?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who did Negan kill in the season finale of The Walking Dead?

A month ago the AMC drama ‘The Walking Dead’ finally introduced Jeffrey Dean Morgan as the comic series' dastardly villain Negan, setting the stage for an all-out war to come in season seven. But the season six finale didn’t answer the biggest burning question on everyone's minds:

Who dies?

As expected, comics villain Negan made his debut in the closing scene of the 90-minute season finale when he lined up the survivors and, with his baseball bat covered in barbed wire, took a swing at one of them. However, the series cuts to black and the audio reveals only the brutal and savage sounds as Negan beats an unseen member of the group to death.

Who did Negan kill?

By failing to identify whom Negan whacks, the zombie drama is able to keep fans guessing when it comes to which of the beloved characters (Rick, Michonne, Glenn, Daryl, Rosita, Carl, Maggie, Aaron, Eugene, Abraham or Sasha) has met their maker. In the comics Negan killed Glenn and many think that this character had same fate in TV Series.

Did Negan kill Glenn?

Season seven premiere, scheduled for October 9 this year, will show us who was at the end of that bat. Many think that it could be Rosita, others are sure that it is Abraham, there are articles opened with 'Poor Eugene' but nothing is certain. If you watch this TV Series, you certainly have your opinion and now you also have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-did-negan-kill/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? Mariano Rajoy, Pedro Sanchez or someone else?

The 2015 Spanish general election was held on December 20, but no party secured a majority in this election, which had resulted in the most fragmented parliament since 1977. After months of negotiations, the four parties with the most seats were unable to reach an agreement and form a coalition government, leading to a fresh election in this year.

This was the first time in Spanish recent history that an election was triggered as a result of failure in the government formation process, and many hope this will change with the 2016 Spanish general election that will be held on June 26.

Still, is anything about to change? The latest poll of polls data from Electograph shows only minor changes compared to the results of the last general election on December 20, 2015. No party is currently forecast to be close to an overall majority, of 176 out of 350 seats in Congress, which history suggests requires at least 44% of the vote.

The order of the parties remains the same: PP, PSOE, Podemos, Ciudadanos and United Left. Thus Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative People’s party, is still given the biggest chances to be the next Spanish prime minister.

Second option is Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez, while none of other names is too popular at the moment, though following general election could change that. Will someone else prevail, or can Mariano Rajoy, who has been almost entirely absent from the recent political drama in Spain, prevail once again? Predict at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/.
 
What is your opinion on recent political drama in Spain, and what other politics markets would you like to have created?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

It’s Eurovision time! Who will win this year? Russia, France, someone else?

Okay, it is still four days till the Grand Final scheduled for May 14, but tonight’s Semi Final 1 will be interesting as well. We will see Russia who is by far the biggest favorite to be the final winner on Saturday, but also to win tonight. Armenia, which is also one of the big favorites, is scheduled for tonight as well as 16 other nations.

You have an hour more to predict your Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 1 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Semi Final 2 is scheduled for Thursday and that night most of the focus will be on Ukraine which chances improved a lot in the last few days, so Ukraine is the first favorite to win the Semi Final 2 as well. But we will also see Australia that is a rather popular bet, while Latvia, Bulgaria, Serbia and plenty other nations want a surprise win.

No need to hurry, you have two days more to predict Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 2 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

So, you have two evenings to hear all the songs and choose your favorite for the Grand Final scheduled for Saturday, and besides Russia and Ukraine, Sweden and France are also given rather big chances for the final win. They are already in the final, but you should hurry if you want to bet on them as odds could change after the semis.

You have four days more to predict the final Winner of Eurovision Song Contest 2016, but hurry up:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

Who is your favorite? And don’t forget that you can suggest some additional markets for the final evening as well.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Can Sanders make another surprise by defeating Hillary in Kentucky?

‘She's on a course to win the Democratic nomination, but still piling up losses,’ was one of the comments about last night’s West Virginia Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders won it with 51% to Hillary’s 36%, though it doesn’t matter a lot in delegate tracker that Hillary leads with 2,239 to 1,469 (with 2,383 delegates needed for nomination).

But, these results do matter to Hillary as she is already starting her campaign against Donald Trump, so the next Tuesday will be important as well. It is time for closed primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. Sanders is favorite in Oregon but it will be especially interesting to see can he defeat Hillary in Kentucky as well.

Few months ago, Kentucky primaries looked like a sure win for Clinton but suddenly she had to start investing in Kentucky television advertisements, as she is with almost weekly results highlighting her relative weaknesses with white men and young voters. And Kentucky is a closed primary where only Democrats can compete.

As for Sanders, he has been the leading candidate for campaign donations coming from Kentucky for three straight months, according to an analysis performed by the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting. So, can this mean that he is about to win Kentucky as well? He is not without chances so make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kentucky-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on Kentucky Democratic primary, and what other primary markets do you want to see created?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Oregon Democratic primary bring another win for ‘out of chances’ Bernie Sanders?

As Politico's David Wade writes, we already know Sanders isn’t going to win the Democratic Party’s nomination; Hillary Clinton has amassed more than 92 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination, and she’ll easily pick up the rest. So right now, Sanders’ campaign is the walking dead: a zombie.

Sanders needs to think long and hard about the big cost of criticizing the now-prohibitive Democratic front-runner. He didn’t set out to become Trump’s best ghostwriter for the general election, but that is the role continued attacks on Clinton risk earning him. Without math or momentum on his side, isn’t it better for Sanders to finish the campaign as a happy warrior and build a long-term movement for campaign finance reform?



He could help Hillary Clinton win big and sweep in a Democratic majority in the Senate. He could become a powerful committee chairman. He could return to the next Senate as one of its most influential players. And for an Independent socialist from Vermont who started this campaign as an asterisk, that’s a political revolution in itself.

He could. But Bernie is not doing that and he is going towards another win in Oregon next Tuesday, with Kentucky primaries being held the same day. Oregon polls are not great and do not show much but many think that recent momentum is not enough for Sanders to close and that Hillary has good chances as well. Fairlay market does not show that so if you think that Hillary has at least even chances you have great odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-oregon-democratic-primary/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

As always, you can suggest your own Fairlay markets at this topic, but it's now also possible to create any market instantly without approval at https://www.fairlay.com/user/event/new.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will finish last, and what will 1-2 order be in Eurovison Grand Final?

After two Semi Finals, Grand Final of Eurovision Song Contest 2016 is scheduled for tomorrow at 21.00 CET. Russia is still the favorite for the win, while Australia, Ukraine, Sweden, and France are give good chances as well:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

You have probably placed your market on the Eurovision winner, but sometimes people are interested in losers as well. So, who will finish last? That race is far more interesting and we are without the real favorite for the last place.

Both Germany and United Kingdom could finish last as big nations are often among the last ones, but currently it is Georgia with the biggest chances to finish at the bottom. Hurry up to place your prediction on the biggest loser at:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - To Finish Last:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-to-finish-last/.

Voting system is always interesting to follow and when the votes are given it is not only about the leader but also about the runner up. So, in order to make the Grand Final more interesting you can now also predict 1-2 finish:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: 1-2 Forecast:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-1-2-forecast/.

So, most think that Russia will be followed by Australia, or Ukraine, or even France. But, what is your opinion? Can someone else be Eurovision winner against all the odds on Russia? Who is your favorite for the Grand Final?