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Author Topic: Prediction Markets at Fairlay - Suggest your own and Bet on them  (Read 8933 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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February 21, 2016, 02:00:05 PM
 #1

As we all have been living in the world of gambling for years, or even decades, gambling is also the part of our mindset so we rather often think about ordinary events as they are already created markets. So, as we are far away from 'I bet Barcelona will lose today', we move forwards to bets like 'I bet the UK will leave the EU', or 'I bet the Bitcoin will go over 700% by the end of the month'.

About most of those markets you think like they are already created but for those still only in your head, this topic is the right place to be. So here you can suggest different markets that you would like to bet on and there are good chances that you will soon enough find them at Fairlay.com. And you can suggest anything you want, from politics to music or movie awards, or even some specific Bitcoin markets.


If you need some ideas, you already have created market 'Will the UK vote to stay in the EU?' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-uk-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu/) that became trending topic yesterday as it was announced that EU Referendum will be held on Thursday 23 June. And, do you want to see some additional markets about this topic, like % for yes or will Scotland vote In and England Out?

US Presidential election is trending topic for months and will be until we get the new US President, so you already have markets differing from 'Who will win the 2016 Nevada Republican Caucus?' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-republican-caucus/) to 'Michael Bloomberg to run for a president' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/michael-bloomberg-to-run-for-a-president/).

And, as all these markets are placed in Bitcoins, and after all we are at the Bitcointalk, you would mostly like to suggest some markets regarding current trending topics of our community to be created. Maybe something like 'Will Bitcoin Classic be adopted by April 1, 2017?' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-classic-be-adopted-by-april-1-2017/) that you can already bet on at Fairlay.


Anyway, there are so many possible and interesting markets out there that you could place your bets on but they are still not created so you have all the freedom to suggest them and maybe earn some easy money after they are created. Or, sadly, lose the money after you are shown that you weren't right after all. But let's hope that will not happen. So, it is time for you to suggest your markets or bet on those already created.
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FairlayBTCPredictions
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February 22, 2016, 05:09:36 PM
 #2

Apple vs FBI – Will Apple be held in contempt before April 1?

Okay, you really had to try a lot in order to miss this ‘fight’ between Apple and FBI that’s been lasting for the last seven days. In fact, since last Tuesday when federal magistrate-judge ruled that Apple must help the FBI break into the locked iPhone 5C of the dead shooter from the San Bernardino shooting that killed 14 people, Syed Farook.

Apple was ordered to create a weaker version of its operating system for this one device, and help the FBI crack Farook's passcode. But Apple said no as its CEO Tim Cook explained that decision in a public letter to his customers:

‘The FBI may use different words to describe this tool, but make no mistake: Building a version of iOS that bypasses security in this way would undeniably create a backdoor. And while the government may argue that its use would be limited to this case, there is no way to guarantee such control.’

At this moment, Apple has until Friday, Feb. 26 to present its legal argument against this order and over time Apple could even take this all the way up the U.S. Supreme Court. But, in the end, if Apple refuses a court order it can be held in contempt of court. Or even its CEO Tim Cook could be held in contempt of court and possibly go to jail.

Still, all this seems rather unlikely at the moment but for those of you still believing that Apple or any of its executives could be held in contempt of court by a federal judge or a magistrate before April 1, you have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/apple-to-be-held-in-contempt-before-april-1/.


So, what is your opinion on this ‘Apple vs FBI’ topic, do you think that it will soon be finished or do you think that this could be a long fight with many of the potential markets to be created down the road? And are there any specific markets that you would like to see at the moment, with all this attention this topic is getting at the moment?
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February 23, 2016, 02:13:20 PM
 #3

Will Republicans have a brokered convention in 2016?

Donald Trump's first-place finish in South Carolina has revived an ongoing discussion about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention and that discussion is still alive prior to the Nevada Republican caucuses in which Trump is the clear front-runner. And though Trump’s results put some Republicans into a panic it could be too late for a a brokered convention.

However, Trump dismissed the notion of a brokered convention (“I think it’s unlikely. I think I’m doing better than that, and so far, you know, I’m really on my way.”), which would occur if no candidate has the required amount of delegates to secure the nomination. The Republicans would then take the battle to the convention floor to decide on a nominee in July.

So, Republicans having that rare brokered convention this year is still a possibility though this is unlikely if Trump continues to win states by such large margins. But, there is still time for change as a brokered convention will be more likely if Rubio manages to win important states like California, West Virginia and New York and it would suit him the most  due to his establishment status.

Another scenario leading to a possible brokered convention is Cruz winning in Texas on March 1 and Florida later on, and with Bush out of the race, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus saying on Brokered Convention: 'We're Prepared for Anything', maybe current odds at Fairlay for Republicans to have a brokered convention in 2016 could be a great bet:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-republicans-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2016-1/


So, what is your opinion on this topic, are the Republican party leaders finally taking Trump seriously and will they try to consolidate behind either Rubio or Cruz and thus go towards the brokered convention, or stand behind Trump before National Convention in July? Also, which other US Election markets would you like to see before the following primaries?
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February 25, 2016, 01:03:10 PM
 #4

Texas Republican primary – Will Cruz beat Trump?

Okay, we had primaries in early states and Trump in on a three-state win streak but it is time for a Super Tuesday. A lot of that will be decided on March 1 but in the end the main talk could be only about Texas. One hundred and fifty-five GOP delegates are at stake in this primary, more than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada combined.

But it is not only about the number of delegates in Texas, it is also about it being all or nothing for Ted Cruz as, after winning the Iowa caucuses, the senator has suffered three consecutive third place finishes. And now it is time for his home state of Texas where win is a must. Still, few days before Texas primary he is not such a huge favorite for a win.

Though Ted Cruz is around 6% above Trump on latest opinion pools, some of them see Cruz and Trump as even so a lot could be decided tonight on the Republican presidential debate in Houston. It’s the last meeting for candidates before the Super Tuesday primaries, while CNN returns yet again as the debate host. And Marco Rubio wants to fight as well.

So, tonight we could see a fight between Rubio and Cruz as it is time to decide who of them will go against Trump, while at the same time Trump could back up Rubio in this fight. All in all, it will surely be interesting in Texas, and you already have Fairlay market created with Cruz still having the biggest chances but this also means great odds on Trump:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-texas-republican-primary/.


What are your opinions on this Texas Republican primary, do you think Trump could win even here? Also, what do you think about other Super Tuesday primaries and which one of them would you like to place your bets on?
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February 26, 2016, 02:49:54 PM
 #5

Number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June to be over 240,000 – YES or NO?

After going down to only 160,000 Bitcoin transactions per day at the start of the year, number of transactions has started to grow in the last two months. In fact, in the last weeks it’s been average of 223,000 transactions per day.

So, would do you think will happen in the next few months? Could number of daily Bitcoin transactions easily go above 230,000 or even over 240,000 as there were 246,000 daily transactions yesterday? So, if we take those numbers from the start of the year, it is surely possible that numbers could go higher. But of course, some of you also think that number of those transactions has to stop growing soon with many of those block being already full.

Anyway, you now have an open market on Fairlay on whether the number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June will be over 240,000 so hurry to make your bets as you surely already have your opinion on this market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/number-of-bitcoin-transactions-per-day-in-the-first-week-of-june-to-be-over-240-000/.

And also, what are the other Bitcoin markets that you would like to bet on, with all the actual topics in this community?
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February 29, 2016, 01:37:54 PM
 #6

Super Tuesday in Minnesota – The end for Rubio and Sanders?

Super Tuesday, which is scheduled for tomorrow is the day when a dozen states (and one territory) will hold their nominating contests this year and it has a great importance as the huge number of 661 Republican delegates will be allocated, and also 865 delegates for Democrats. You already had created market for the Texas Republican primary as it is the home country of Ted Cruz so Trump could finally be defeated again, but if you still believe in Trump bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-texas-republican-primary/

Still, out of the Texas Trump will probably swipe all the other countries so he could become unstoppable. And because of this, Minnesota Republican Caucus became really important one. Northern states tend to feature more liberal Republican electorates, so that makes this a prime test of whether Marco Rubio can top Donald Trump across the map. If, Trump easily wins Minnesota as well, that could be it, but, on the other side, Rubio could start a comeback here.

So, a day before Minesota Republican Caucus Donald Trump is till with great chances to win this country as well but solid chances are given to Marco Rubio also, while Ted Cruz will have to be pleased with possible win in Texas. There are a lot of primaries after the Super Tuesday but some of the important Republicans are already getting behind Trump so March 1 in Minnesota could mean a lot to Rubio. No matter who do you trust, bet on this Caucus at Fairlay now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-minnesota-republican-caucus/

When it comes to Democrats, Super Tuesday in Minnesota will be important as well. This state with a largely white population makes Minnesota exactly the kind of state Bernie Sanders is targeting in his campaign so he has some chances to win and show that he is still in contention. But, at the same time, this could also test the value of his endorsements, since Hillary Clinton has the backing of all the state's powerful Democrats, thus she is favorite to win:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-minnesota-democratic-caucus/

All in all, Super Tuesday will be really interesting as Trump and Clinton could go too far to be caught, or it could finally start to get more interesting, at least in one of the parties. In all of this Minnesota doesn’t have too many delegates but opinions of its population could show a lot. And, do you have any Super Tuesday markets that you would like to bet on, or do you already want to see odds on those primaries that are coming after Super Tuesday, from the next weekend on?
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March 01, 2016, 03:05:59 PM
 #7

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Who will be the winner this year?

With all those Super Tuesday markets being resolved today, it is time to get away from the politics a bit as you now have Eurovision markets at offer. It is two and a half months away as it will take place from May 10-14 in Stockholm, Sweden, following Sweden's victory at the 2015 contest. So, did you predict the winner right last year or is this your year to win?

It is important to note that this years contest will also be the first to implement a new voting system, with each country now awarding two sets of points: one from their professional jury and another from televoting. So, could this change a lot as forty-three countries will participate, including even Australia that returns after debuting as a guest in 2015.

At the moment Australia is among the favorites for the win, though not among the biggest ones that include Russia and Poland. Those are followed by the host Sweden and Latvia, and then by Australia. Among favorites for this year winner are also Germany and France but at Fairlay you also have ‘Other’ option to bet on, and it includes all the other countries:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

So, are you fan of Eurosong, and (with only few more countries having to confirm artists that will represent them), did you already find your favorites for this year or are you among those who think that voting is only a political thing? Even if that is the way you can find country to bet on, and you can also suggest other entertainment markets to be created.
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March 02, 2016, 01:55:00 PM
 #8

Obama's Next Supreme Court Nominee – Who will it be?

As Super Tuesday was unraveling, President Obama at the same time met with top Senate leaders at the White House to discuss Obama's nomination to fill a Supreme Court vacancy this year, after associate Justice Antonin Scalia was found dead on February 13. But, at it was expected, Senate Republicans said nothing has changed their determination not to give the nominee a hearing as they still think that this appointment should be made by the next president.

But, even after this, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Obama is moving forward with the process of vetting and nominating a Supreme Court justice. On Monday it was announced that President Obama has already tapped Brian Deese, his senior adviser on energy and environment issues, to oversee the upcoming Supreme Court nomination and there are talks that SCOTUS nomination could even come by the end of this week, or surely in the next following weeks.

So now you have created market about who will be Obama's next Supreme Court nominee and the biggest chances are given to judge Sri Srinivasan as he is a top contender if the President wants a so-called consensus nominee who could peel off enough GOP votes to get past a filibuster. He is followed by Loretta Lynch, former U.S. attorney in New York who has a strong record on civil-rights issues as U.S. attorney general.

There are already talks that Democrats might not want to risk burning Srinivasan on a political fight, so other opinions could also be great bets. One of them is Jacqueline Nguyen who was confirmed to the appellate court, 91-3, in May 2012, potentially making it difficult for Republicans to justify voting against her. Rather favorites are also Ketanji Brown Jackson and Jane Kelly who is, on the other side, one with the lack of a judicial record.

Again, with Senate Republicans not wanting to give nominee even a hearing, options ‘Other’ could be a great bet as it is highly unlikely that Senate will confirm Next Supreme Court Nominee so Obama could step away from the popular names. Anyway, you have plenty options to bet on Fairlay and take in mind that this market resolves to Barack Obama's next formal Supreme Court nominee, whether or not the nomination is successful. Place your bet now at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obamas-next-supreme-court-nominee/

And, as usual, you can also suggest you own markets about SOTUS nominations. So, would you maybe like to see market about the gender of the next nominee, or will Senate confirm next, or in fact any of the Obama’s SCOTUS nominees?
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March 03, 2016, 01:05:33 PM
 #9

Kansas caucuses – Country for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders to win?

Super Tuesday is only two days behind us but it is already time for the new primaries and caucuses that will be held on Saturday, March 5, followed by two more on Sunday. Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska should be easy wins for both Trump and Hillary, so Kansas could be the state mostly talked about when the results come back on Saturday.

Recent polls in Kansas showed that Trump and Hillary are favorites for the win but more important were Super Tuesday results in Oklahoma that was won by Sanders and Cruz. Not only are Oklahoma and Kansas neighbors, their populations have a similar racial and socioeconomic makeup, a similar urban/rural split and a relatively similar electoral size.

So, after Sanders and Cruz won in Oklahoma, could this be repeated in Kansas? Sanders has done better in places where there are a lot of white voters and Kansas has a large white population. Kansas' population also has lower income than other countries Hillary won, so this will favor Sanders as well. If you think that will (not) be enough bet at Fairlay:

Kansas Democratic Caucus – https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kansas-democratic-caucus/.

It is a bit more complicated for the Republicans as both Marco Rubio and Trump were fewer than 10 points behind Cruz in Oklahoma, so small shifts in the electorate this week could change the outcome. Change could also be made by tonight’s Republican debate in Detrorit where Trump will once again be under big attack from both Rubio and Cruz.

Important thing in Cruz’s potential Kansas win could be that the 6 percent of Oklahoma voters who chose Ben Carson could move towards Cruz, another evangelical candidate, now that it's looking more and more as if Carson will be out of the race soon. But, we already now that nothing is sure this year, so you have also good odds on Trump and Rubio:

Kansas Republican Caucus – https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kansas-republican-caucus/.

What are you opinions on this, and would you like to see some other markets created for this weekend’s primaries? Or do you want to bet at markets that could seal the win for both Trump and Hillary, like those in Florida on March 15?
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March 05, 2016, 12:01:40 PM
 #10

Next London Mayor – Khan or Goldsmith?

Exactly two months before the 2016 election for London Mayor, Labour's Sadiq Khan is still the favorite to win the election for London mayor as he has been topping the polls since last summer so media in Britain and world are often asking the question does Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith stand a chance? As all the others candidates do not.

"While Khan has given the impression of covering every angle with know-how and energy, the Goldsmith campaign has, by comparison, looked lethargic and at times ill-judged," says Dave Hill in The Guardian. But, he adds, the outcome is still "hard to foresee with certainty". Because of this Khan is still not a huge favorite and Goldsmith could be a good bet.

"All is not lost for team Goldsmith," says Asa Bennett in the Daily Telegraph. He points out that "Posh Tory" jibes didn't stop David Cameron from winning two general elections, nor Johnson from winning the London mayoralty twice in a row. So, looks like everything is still open and you have two more months to bet at Fairlay on the next London Major:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-london-mayor/.

What are your opinions on the next London Major, and which other UK Politics markets would you like to be created?
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March 07, 2016, 02:27:37 PM
 #11

Hawaii and Idaho tomorrow – Will Trump lose both of them?

Donald Trump had a bad night on Saturday, losing Kansas and Maine to the doctrinaire Texan, Ted Cruz, and winning Louisiana and Kentucky only narrowly. But it is time for some even more important primaries and looks like Trump will prevail in both Michigan and Mississippi tomorrow but big question is will he at the same time lose Idaho and Hawaii?

After Marco Rubio won Puerto Rico last night, he is also the biggest favorite to win the Hawaii Caucus as there are opinions that he gained a bit of the momentum with that win and that he is part of the establishment that voters in Hawaii like. But, again, Puerto Rico's concerns are very different than Hawaii’s and there could be another ‘Trump factor’ here. Anyway, if you favor Trump, odds on his win here are better than in most countries so bet now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-hawaii-republican-caucus/.

Though, odds on Trump's win are even (though not by a much) bigger in Idaho where Ted Cruz is the first favorite and Marco Rubio almost without any chances, though some think that he could be a dark horse and a huge surprise as he already invested lot of time and resources in Idaho, and visited Idaho three times, more than any other candidate did.

Of course, Cruz is the main favorite after winning Maine and Kansas, as Idaho is also a religious conservative state with high population of Mormons. And in 2012 Romney easily won Idaho so his negative comments towards Trump could also mean a lot. Anyway, Idaho's primary will surely draw a lot of attention tomorrow and you can either favor Cruz or go for Trump or even huge surprise win by Rubio but you surely don't want to miss this market, so bet at Fairlay now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-idaho-republican-primary/.

So, what are your opinions on the following primaries, and which other election markets would you like to see created?
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March 09, 2016, 09:27:25 AM
 #12

AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol – It is 1:0 but who will prevail in the end?

“#AlphaGo WINS!!!! We landed it on the moon. So proud of the team!! Respect to the amazing Lee Sedol too,“ twitted Demis Hassabis, Founder & CEO of DeepMind that had built AlphaGo, a system of networks capable of beating a champion Go player. In fact, this morning AlphaGo defeated legendary Go player Lee Sedol in the first of five historic matches being held in Seoul, South Korea.

“Where were you daddy when humans first surrendered to the machines,“ was another of the tweets as the first match between AlphaGo and Lee Sedol was followed all around the globe this morning (all the matches start at 04.30 AM CET time). But in the end, those cheering for humanity weren’t too lucky as Lee resigned after about three and a half hours, with 28 minutes and 28 seconds remaining on his clock.



AlphaGo won the first match and is a big favorite to win this match overall but it did make few mistakes, while Lee Sedol was just too nervous, so the best human player is still with chances to make a comeback. Thus, he is given solid chances to prevail in the second match that is on schedule tomorrow. It will surely be another big fight and you already have markets created for both total and the second match winner:

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in Match 2:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-match-2/.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match-1/.

Who do you support in this popular Go match between AI and humanity, and what are your opinions on the following matches? Also, are there some similar matches for which you would like to see markets being created?
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March 09, 2016, 03:04:57 PM
 #13

Florida and Ohio next Tuesday – Will Trump secure nomination by winning both of them?

Another Tuesday and another nice day for Donald Trump who yesterday won Mississippi, Michigan and even Hawaii, losing only Idaho in which Cruz prevailed. So, Trump enjoys Tuesdays and next one could be remembered as Tuesday when he became unstoppable. Super Tuesday was a big step towards nomination, yesterday he almost for sure got rid of Marco Rubio and it is he or Ted Cruz now.

Being unable to win even Hawaii in which he was favorite, Marco Rubio is with poor chances before his home primaries in Florida on March 15. Rubio put a lot in Florida campaign but, as he did almost nothing in countries prior to it, it is almost sure that Trump will win Florida as well and put a sad end to Rubio's campaign. Pools are also in favor of Trump but if you think Rubio could still make a surpirse find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-florida-republican-primary/

How dominant is Trump shows that on March 15 he could also defeat John Kasich in his home state of Ohio. Kasich’s chances for winning Ohio are also going down from day to day and his chances are already even with those of Trump’s. So, these important winner-take-all primaries in Ohio and Florida on March 15 could determine the fates of both Rubio and Kasich. And if you think that Trump will win Ohio as well you can find good odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-ohio-republican-primary/.

So, what is your opinion on Ohio and Florida and what other primaries markets would you like too see created?
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March 10, 2016, 12:36:50 PM
 #14

AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol – 2:0 for AI, can humanity make a comeback?

"Yesterday I was surprised but today it's more than that — I am speechless," said Lee Sedol in the post-game press conference, after he once again resigned, in the second of five Go matches that are these days played in Seoul against AlphaGo, the computer created by Google's DeepMind.

In the first match Sedol was nervous but today he almost made no mistake but AlphaGo was still too strong for him. So, after Lee earlier predicted he'd win 5-0 or 4-1 at worst, he now needs to come out on top in all three remaining games whereas AlphaGo could wrap up the series by Saturday when the next match is scheduled.


Lee this morning literally dropped his jaw for few seconds after the jaw-dropping move by Alpha Go

Fairlay continues to follow this interesting match though it is almost sure that AlphaGo will prevail in the end. But it is the question can Lee win at least one match and could he stop AphaGo in the next one, though today AlphaGo was confident in victory from the midway point of the game.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in Match 3:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-match-3/.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match-1/.

So, AplhaGo in a huge favorite to prevail overall but also a big favorite to win the third match of the series as well. But do you think a day rest will help Sedol to find a way to outmaneuver AlphaGo in the next match or is it all done for him?
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March 14, 2016, 11:50:19 AM
 #15

When will Ethereum switch to Proof-of-Stake? May 2017? November 2017? Before, or even later?

Pi day (today, March 14), we get Homestead on mainnet, which is the second major version release of the Ethereum platform, that includes several protocol changes and a networking change which gives its users the ability to do further network upgrades. So, it is another big step for Ethereum after the Ethereum Frontier network launched on July 30 last year and developers began writing smart contracts and decentralized apps to deploy on the live Ethereum network.

After that, next phase in the Ethereum launch process should be Metropolis (that will open gates to the masses) and then really important Serenity phase. It is the last phase and has one key principle - to switch the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake - essentially reducing the power consumption of the Ethereum network. Protocol used for this is called Casper 'the friendly ghost’ because it is an adaptation of some of the principles of the GHOST (Greedy Heaviest-Observed Sub-Tree) protocol for proof-of-work consensus to proof-of-stake.



Anyway, if you want to read and learn more about Serenity and Casper, then check the Ethereum Blog so you can react better to the following markets regarding Ethereum’s change from Proof-of-Stake to Proof-of-Work. At the moment, it is certain that this change will happen but the date is still unknown. There were talks that it could be this summer but Proof-of-State phase probably won’t be completed before 2017. For those of you who believe it will be soon enough, there is market that Ethereum will switch to it before before May 1, and the second date is November 1 next year.

You can find both of your markets here:

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before May 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-may-1-2017/

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before November 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-november-1-2017/

So, what is your opinion on this change to Proof-of-Stake, and do you think it will be made soon? Also, which other Ethereum related markets would you like to see created in the future?
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March 15, 2016, 01:27:02 PM
 #16

March Madness – Who will win the NCAA Basketball Championship?

Okay, it is March 15 and it is finally time for the March Madness when we all start to follow NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament. So, find and print your full bracket and enjoy next three weeks following college basketball. At Fairlay you can already find markets for all the opening games and you will be able to find the great odds as well till the final game scheduled for April 4: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/basketball/ncaa/match/.

But, as many of us don't follow college basketball from game to game, we like to place bets on the final winner and follow them from round to round, hopefully to the final. And of course, you can choose from the 68 teams involved. This year the first favorite for the title is team of Kansas Jayhawks which is the NCAA tournament's first overall seed after a 30-4 season and a Big 12 championship win, with offense that has averaged over 80 points per game this season.

Kansas is followed by North Carolina Tar Heels that is No.1 seed in East Region, and then we have Michigan State Spartans which won the Big Ten championship on Sunday before the selection show, so are team in a good form. Virginia Cavaliers and Kentucky Wildcats complete Top 6 favorites per odds but you probably have your own favorite, and considering all the potential surprises, to bet on ‘Other’ would also be a smart option, with great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ncaa-basketball-championship-2016-winner/.

All in all, March Madness starts tonight, so who is your favorite and have you already printed your full bracket?
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March 16, 2016, 11:17:19 AM
 #17

Next for the Republicans – Arizona and Utah on March 22, who will win them?

Another interesting Tuesday is behind us and it looks like everyone can be pleased but Marco Rubio who easily lost to Trump his home state of Florida and because of that decided to get out of the race. With 99 delegates won in Florida, Trump improved his lead ahead of Ted Cruz who was mostly second in countries that held primaries yesterday.

But, at the same time, a big question was opened as Trump lost Ohio to John Kasich who, by prevailing in his home state, probably stopped Trump from gaining Republican nomination before the party's convention in Cleveland. Still, there is enough delegates to be awarded and next Tuesday, March 22, it is time for Arizona primaries and Utah caucuses.

“There is great anger. Believe me, there is great anger,” Donald Trump said last night and because of this he is a huge favorite in Arizona which has a lot of angry and disaffected voters. Cruz's chances improved a bit last night as Rubio got out of the race so his votes should go to Cruz now, so if you think it could be enough for a win bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-arizona-republican-primary/.

At the same time, all the demographic analysis show that Utah is horrible state for Trump and Cruz should easily prevail in this one, especially after Rubio is out of the race. So, there is chance that Utah could be another country in which Trump's nomination is stopped but if you think that angry Trump could prevail even here, Fairlay offers you great odds:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-utah-republican-caucus/.

So, what is your opinion on the following primaries, and which other markets would you like to see created soon?
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March 16, 2016, 06:41:20 PM
 #18

Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination – Who will prevail, Senate or Obama?

After few weeks of discussion and analysis, President Barack Obama today finally nominated Chief Judge Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court, so now all is set for Obama’s fierce confirmation fight with Senate Republicans. Even with this being election year, this Supreme Court nomination will be widely discussed in the following months.

Garland currently serves as the top judge on the D.C. Circuit, and he's widely admired by Democrats and Republicans but that doesn’t change a lot. At least for now, as Republicans have been clear in prior weeks that they will block Obama's pick, regardless of qualifications, and that was today once again confirmed by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Republicans want the next president to be elected, before they even consider the hearing of the next SCOTUS nominee. So, the long battle between Obama and Senate is in front of us, while today Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, quickly backed up Senate Republicans saying they shouldn't give Barack Obama's pick a hearing.



So, Obama will need to convince at least 14 Republican senators to join Democrats to break an inevitable filibuster and at least five Republican senators to vote with Democrats for confirmation - but first somehow convince McConnell to back off from his absolutist position against even giving the nominee a hearing (for the first time since 1875).

All in all, nothing will be decided too soon and this will be a long battle as The White House is hoping to create some movement by this summer, but many expect that this battle will go all the way through November, with Democrats threatening to turn it into a major political issue before the elections so could Republicans give up before it hurts them?

Anyway, this will not only be a trending topic in the following days but also in the following months, so you already have an open market at Fairlay. Will Senate confirm Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination is the question, so be quick to place your bet because odds could easily go against your opinion. Find the SCOTUS odds right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-senate-confirm-merrick-garlands-scotus-nomination/.

What is your opinion on this SCOTUS nomination, and what other political markets would you like to see?
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March 17, 2016, 12:50:41 PM
 #19

Can Sanders stay in the race? It is time for Arizona, Idaho and Utah to decide.

After losing all five states two days ago, Sanders is confident better days are ahead of him, and our prediction markets confirm that as he is favorite in both Idaho and Utah, next caucuses scheduled for March 22. But next Tuesday surely won't change a lot as most delegates are given in Arizona primary, also on March 22, that is in favor of Hillary Clinton.

But, can Sanders make a surprise in Arizona? He has invested more than $1.5 million in ads in this country but at the same time Arizona is in terms of demographics and geography somewhat similar to Nevada where Clinton won in February, 53% to 47%. Still, if you think Sanders can make a surprise by winning Arizona, find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-arizona-democratic-primary/.

Utah is similar to Arizona, but in the opposite ways as Clinton tries to make a surprise by winning it before current favorite Sanders. Some think current momentum will help Hillary to prevail but Sanders still has more support and caucuses go in his favor as well. But Utah it is far from decided, so odds are solid on either side of the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-utah-democratic-caucus/.

As for Idaho, it should be the most one-sided country next Tuesday as Sanders is a big favorite to win it. He will be in Idaho Falls tomorrow morning for his "A Future To Believe In" rally, and though people think Hillary has a momentum, Sanders should prevail easily here. You don't agree? Then find great odds on Hillary's win and bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-idaho-democratic-caucus/.

What is your opinion on the following Democratic primaries, or do you think those of Republicans are easier to predict?
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March 21, 2016, 12:16:11 PM
 #20

House Of Cards – To be the Next President

SPOILER ALERT: There could be few spoilers for those of you who still haven't watched Season 4.

Okay, we thought that Season 4 will be the last season of the ‘House Of Cards’ series but in the meantime it’s been renewed for Season 5 and we also didn’t get the new President in Season 4. We did get similar campaign that we have in the real life but final election is left for the next season, with addition of the hugely popular candidate Will Conway.

Still, after watching Season 4, some are even scared with the things Frank Underwood and his wife Clare will do for Frank to become the next President. So, in the markets you now how at Fairlay, Frank Underwood is by far the biggest favorite for the next President. If you think Frank will be spectacular winner in the next election, place your bets here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/house-of-cards-to-be-the-next-president/.

Of course, you have even better odds if you think Frank will not be the next president. Second favorite is the new and very popular character Will Conway who leads in all the pools and at the moment only he can stop Frank. But you have great odds on ‘Other’ option as well, if you think Clare Underwood, Heather Dunbar on someone else could surprise.

So, what is your opinion? Will it all be about Frank or that Reddit theory ‘The deck is now complete after 4 seasons of 13 episodes; so the fifth will be about how the metaphoric house of cards come tumbling down.’ could be true after all?
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