Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)

[ingrownpocket]

• Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

[giszmo]

• Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead

[phatsphere]

10 is not bad. whoever wins, I propose to donate something to this marvelous forum :-)

[onealfa]

19.97 $/btc -dwn

[Realpra]

Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on October 27, 2012, 05:21:40 PM
Would you like to bet BTC10 with me? I wager BTC10 that the price will not be equal to or above USD 15 on the stroke of February 1 2013 at 00:00 UTC. If the price is below USD 15 at that point, you pay me BTC10. If the price is equal to or above USD 15, I pay you BTC10. Sound good?

Quote from: Realpra on October 27, 2012, 04:10:02 PM
That's a bit much, lets say 1 BTC and it's a deal - I'm not a (very) betting man;)

Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on October 27, 2012, 01:11:26 PM
Yes, still a deal. BTC1 it is then.

Bad copy paste job I know.. anyway do I get points for getting it so close 3 months in advance?

Here is another quote of mine from Nov 4:
"In this case total price increase factoring in market anticipation is: 20/12.5 = 1.6."*
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122197.msg1315679#msg1315679

The interesting thing here is that market anticipation had pretty much 0 effect.

EDIT: * as in ~11$*1.6=17.6

[deepceleron]

THE CONTEST
IS CLOSED!!!derp!

The exact last trade can be determined from mtgox directly using the API.

MtGox trade numbers are determined by epoch time + 6 digits. Per rules:

1359676800xxxxxx = Feb 01 2013 00:00:00 GMT (final trade up to this time is winning price)
1359676801000000 = Feb 01 2013 00:00:01 GMT (this trade number or higher (after) don't count)

for looking up trades, you use the starting trade number:
(example, now) Trades since Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:40:00 GMT
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359571200000000

For finding the last trade (won't show data until after date):

Trades since Thu, 31 Jan 2013 23:59:00 GMT (61 seconds of trades, to end of contest)
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359676740000000

Trades since Fri, 01 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT (only one second of valid trades to end of contest)
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359676800000000

Try enough numbers and you should get the last qualifying trade and the first "too late" trade in one data reply.

[fimp]

deepceleron, as per the rules, bitcoincharts.com will be used to determine the last trade - not MtGox API.

[fimp]

Distribution of final 287 guesses before the deadline

[dooglus]

According to Mr. Moody, the price was $19.70001

[fimp]

According to Mr. Moody, the price was $19.70001

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

[dooglus]

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

Good point, well made.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

• Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead

To be fair, I did not meet the deadline, and my submission was not based on any calculations. I had every intent to make the deadline, but got sidetracked and missed the UTC conversion.

I'm pretty sure I won't be off by more than BTC1 though.

[ingrownpocket]

We got a jet to the moon. Hope it doesn't blow up half way.

[bitcats]

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

  In some places it is

[FreeMoney]

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

  In some places it is

Where?

[bitcats]

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

  In some places it is

Where?

wait an hour, i'll tell you..

[Korbman]

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

 In some places it is

Where?

Christmas Islands...Australia...New Zealand.

Anywhere over there really.

[bitcats]

I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today

[Korbman]

I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today

99% off topic: I'm assuming American Samoa in the Pacific? I've wanted to vacation there at some point..I imagine it's quite nice 

1% on topic: Did we ever establish a time zone for determining a winning price?

[ingrownpocket]

I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today

99% off topic: I'm assuming American Samoa in the Pacific? I've wanted to vacation there at some point..I imagine it's quite nice  

1% on topic: Did we ever establish a time zone for determining a winning price?

• Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.