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Author Topic: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)  (Read 15206 times)
themaskedone
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January 30, 2013, 08:37:40 AM
 #301

17.02
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uuidman
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January 30, 2013, 09:23:00 AM
 #302

$19.71
Carlos L.
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January 30, 2013, 09:26:42 AM
 #303

  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.
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January 30, 2013, 09:51:39 AM
 #304

  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead Wink

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January 30, 2013, 09:56:03 AM
 #305

10 is not bad. whoever wins, I propose to donate something to this marvelous forum :-)
onealfa
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January 30, 2013, 06:15:02 PM
 #306

19.97 $/btc -dwn

Realpra
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January 30, 2013, 06:39:32 PM
 #307

Quote
Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on October 27, 2012, 05:21:40 PM
Would you like to bet BTC10 with me? I wager BTC10 that the price will not be equal to or above USD 15 on the stroke of February 1 2013 at 00:00 UTC. If the price is below USD 15 at that point, you pay me BTC10. If the price is equal to or above USD 15, I pay you BTC10. Sound good?
Quote
Quote from: Realpra on October 27, 2012, 04:10:02 PM
That's a bit much, lets say 1 BTC and it's a deal - I'm not a (very) betting man;)
Quote
Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on October 27, 2012, 01:11:26 PM
Yes, still a deal. BTC1 it is then.
Bad copy paste job I know.. anyway do I get points for getting it so close 3 months in advance?

Here is another quote of mine from Nov 4:
"In this case total price increase factoring in market anticipation is: 20/12.5 = 1.6."*
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122197.msg1315679#msg1315679

The interesting thing here is that market anticipation had pretty much 0 effect.

EDIT: * as in ~11$*1.6=17.6

Cheap and sexy Bitcoin card/hardware wallet, buy here:
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deepceleron
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January 30, 2013, 06:46:37 PM
 #308

THE CONTEST
IS CLOSED!!!
derp!

The exact last trade can be determined from mtgox directly using the API.

MtGox trade numbers are determined by epoch time + 6 digits. Per rules:

1359676800xxxxxx = Feb 01 2013 00:00:00 GMT (final trade up to this time is winning price)
1359676801000000 = Feb 01 2013 00:00:01 GMT (this trade number or higher (after) don't count)

for looking up trades, you use the starting trade number:
(example, now) Trades since Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:40:00 GMT
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359571200000000

For finding the last trade (won't show data until after date):

Trades since Thu, 31 Jan 2013 23:59:00 GMT (61 seconds of trades, to end of contest)
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359676740000000

Trades since Fri, 01 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT (only one second of valid trades to end of contest)
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359676800000000

Try enough numbers and you should get the last qualifying trade and the first "too late" trade in one data reply.
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January 30, 2013, 11:01:43 PM
 #309

deepceleron, as per the rules, bitcoincharts.com will be used to determine the last trade - not MtGox API.

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January 30, 2013, 11:16:54 PM
 #310

Distribution of final 287 guesses before the deadline


dooglus
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January 31, 2013, 12:01:48 AM
 #311

According to Mr. Moody, the price was $19.70001


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fimp
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January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
 #312

According to Mr. Moody, the price was $19.70001


Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

dooglus
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January 31, 2013, 12:30:46 AM
 #313

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

Good point, well made.

Just-Dice                 ██             
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Phinnaeus Gage
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January 31, 2013, 05:58:21 AM
 #314

  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead Wink

To be fair, I did not meet the deadline, and my submission was not based on any calculations. I had every intent to make the deadline, but got sidetracked and missed the UTC conversion.

I'm pretty sure I won't be off by more than BTC1 though.
Carlos L.
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January 31, 2013, 09:14:35 AM
 #315

We got a jet to the moon. Hope it doesn't blow up half way.
bitcats
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January 31, 2013, 09:36:29 AM
 #316

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.
  In some places it is Wink

"Unser Problem ist nicht ziviler Ungehorsam, unser Problem ist ziviler Gehorsam."  - Howard Zinn
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January 31, 2013, 09:48:16 AM
 #317

Well it's not Feb 1 yet.
  In some places it is Wink

Where?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
bitcats
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January 31, 2013, 09:53:56 AM
 #318

wait an hour, i'll tell you..

"Unser Problem ist nicht ziviler Ungehorsam, unser Problem ist ziviler Gehorsam."  - Howard Zinn
Korbman
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January 31, 2013, 03:01:36 PM
 #319


Christmas Islands...Australia...New Zealand.

Anywhere over there really.

bitcats
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January 31, 2013, 03:23:24 PM
 #320

I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today Cool

"Unser Problem ist nicht ziviler Ungehorsam, unser Problem ist ziviler Gehorsam."  - Howard Zinn
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