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Author Topic: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)  (Read 15229 times)
fimp
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January 23, 2013, 03:01:06 PM
 #161

1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?
Yeah, but it's specified on the form.

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January 23, 2013, 03:35:38 PM
 #162

18.5
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January 23, 2013, 03:45:01 PM
 #163

1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?
Yeah, but it's specified on the form.
Right. That's where I decided, not to troll like Richy_T Wink

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January 23, 2013, 03:56:47 PM
 #164

$14.95 /BTC


 ██▄                ██        ▄███████▄        ██                  ██      ▄█████████▄ 
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January 23, 2013, 04:04:42 PM
 #165

17.67

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
jarsumarsu
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January 23, 2013, 04:08:29 PM
 #166

23.23
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January 23, 2013, 04:24:21 PM
 #167

16.75
dirtycat
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January 23, 2013, 04:28:15 PM
 #168

$9.76 a coin.

poop!
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January 23, 2013, 04:31:29 PM
 #169

Hey, this is a nice, simple, well organized contest Smiley  My prediction is 16.06

 Grin

(I had to change it, someone had already guesses 16.05)
Chief Satangkai
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January 23, 2013, 05:40:37 PM
 #170

16.28
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January 23, 2013, 06:22:28 PM
 #171

$18.14

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January 23, 2013, 07:46:07 PM
 #172

1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?
Yeah, but it's specified on the form.

Ah, bait & switch :p No doubt you'll put one of those evil cookies in our web browsers while we're there too.

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axus
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January 23, 2013, 08:48:28 PM
 #173

$16.05

Oops.  I have to change my guess.   Hold on!  It would be nice if the form rejected entries that have already been made Smiley
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January 23, 2013, 08:51:56 PM
 #174

$31.5

PM me if you are ready to actually start seasteading.
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January 23, 2013, 10:10:42 PM
 #175

19.11

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January 23, 2013, 10:28:27 PM
 #176

I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)

If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.

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January 23, 2013, 10:29:35 PM
 #177

19.4562
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January 24, 2013, 12:53:52 AM
 #178

I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)

If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.

It's actually an interesting game as is imo. There is some incentive to pick early since your guess will help keep people out of the range you think is most likely.

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January 24, 2013, 02:16:23 AM
 #179

$21.44
constitution
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January 24, 2013, 02:51:17 AM
 #180

21.84$

Great Idea!
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