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Author Topic: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)  (Read 15211 times)
averwind
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January 24, 2013, 05:24:51 PM
 #201

$19.21
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Luceo
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Per aspera ad astra!


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January 24, 2013, 05:29:40 PM
 #202

$17.79

vssa
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January 24, 2013, 05:38:00 PM
 #203

12.2

(Ҝ) Карбованець Karbowanec (Krbcoin) + Cryptonote = Anonymous  |  I endorse Monero  |  Donate BTC: 1444y5HpV7UDKxYeDuB7MjEABgvhWWWd9B KRB: Kdev1L9V5ow3cdKNqDpLcFFxZCqu5W2GE9xMKewsB2pUXWxcXvJaUWHcSrHuZw91eYfQFzRtGfTemRe SSMN4kE445i6Etb3
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January 24, 2013, 07:28:30 PM
 #204

$17.75

dserrano5
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January 24, 2013, 07:35:10 PM
 #205

You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

I see nothing in the first post that prevents a guess like e.g. $19.19191919, therefore making a collision highly improbable. Or am I missing something?

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January 24, 2013, 07:40:18 PM
 #206

17.7$

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Raize
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January 24, 2013, 07:44:54 PM
 #207

33.50

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January 24, 2013, 08:12:49 PM
 #208

14.81  Cheesy
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January 24, 2013, 09:33:48 PM
 #209

You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

I see nothing in the first post that prevents a guess like e.g. $19.19191919, therefore making a collision highly improbable. Or am I missing something?
That's true. But rounder numbers have a higher probability of being the actual last price, because human traders tend to use rounder numbers.

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January 24, 2013, 10:20:51 PM
 #210

19.69 bucks
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January 25, 2013, 01:44:43 AM
 #211

In before somebody else: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

My guess will be the exact number obtained when all the guesses (minus all guesses that are more than doubled the current price--$18.3790 USD or half of same) are totaled, divided by the number of guesses tallied, and rounded to the nearest satoshi.

To be clear, no guesses over 36.758 or under 9.1895 will be considered for the calculation.

If the resulting number proves to be the winning entry, the prize pool will be donated to the I-can't-believe-I-created-this-stupid-Pirate-bet fund, namely Matthew, to disperse how he sees fit.

This is a serious entry, and I desire fimp to accept it as it is. I will PM the link to this post since, with this unique guess/entry I will be breaking one of the rules:

Quote
Step 1: Fill out this form with your guess.

All he'll have to do is quote this post, and somebody quote him doing such, and my guess will be validated.

At the very least, we'll learn how close wisdom-of-the-crowd will work in this case.

I, nor any one of my other accounts, will be submitting another guess.

~Bruno K~

EDIT: PM sent.
You'll have to submit a regular guess like everybody else, but that doesn't stop you from using your desired strategy.

All guesses are available in an easy-to-handle format here.

Shortly before the guessing deadline Jan 30, 00:00:01 AM UTC you can do the calculation and submit a guess the normal way.

Fair enough. I can submit a weighted average a couple hours before closing.

Thanks, fimp, for your consideration.

~Bruno K~
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January 25, 2013, 04:33:27 AM
 #212

$15.87

1AXBRFK5a8dP7z8T3gb3hvUjm2F6KYFmgS
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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January 25, 2013, 05:29:16 AM
 #213

BITCOIN NORDIC charges 9% on top of the exchange price for bitcoins.

That IMO is waaaay over priced.


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TheDarKnight
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January 25, 2013, 09:02:50 AM
 #214

It's a bit early doors but lest I forget later, I'll have my pot-shot right now  Embarrassed
I\ll say 15.4 USD! Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

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January 25, 2013, 09:33:34 AM
 #215

$15

fimp
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January 25, 2013, 10:25:53 AM
 #216

Distribution of first 209 guesses


bushstar
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January 25, 2013, 12:42:57 PM
 #217

$11.50
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January 25, 2013, 01:20:29 PM
 #218

$16.95
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You can't be Serious?!?


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January 26, 2013, 03:35:54 PM
 #219

$17.90 USD
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January 26, 2013, 04:04:21 PM
 #220

16.85

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