diff thread Mar 3 to Mar 17? picks are closed.... prize = 0.1 btc

[alh]

It's also interesting that BTC price has been pretty much stuck in a narrow trading range (as I recall). No major swings, up or down. Unfortunately it's been stuck around $415, and not $450.

[Mikestang]

It can stay stuck at $415 for as long as it wants as far as I'm concerned, it was stuck at $215 for too long!

I am kind of excited for the halving to get here, I think it's going to kill off a lot of the big farms, we might just see home mining become viable again.  If not this halving then almost certainly the one following, unless btc price goes to the moon.

[notlist3d]

It can stay stuck at $415 for as long as it wants as far as I'm concerned, it was stuck at $215 for too long!

I am kind of excited for the halving to get here, I think it's going to kill off a lot of the big farms, we might just see home mining become viable again.  If not this halving then almost certainly the one following, unless btc price goes to the moon.

The problem is if they kill off the big farms, this means most hobby/home miners are gone.   And if that happens I see BTC going down in price, but I could be wrong.

The big farms I think will still be here for the most part though.  I think there are two paths most will follow.  1) They have so low of electricity they keep running and it makes no difference to them 2) With info structure already built they switch to next gen gear and are good for quite a while running it.

I would agree though I'm ready for having just to see what it does.

[RichBC]

It can stay stuck at $415 for as long as it wants as far as I'm concerned, it was stuck at $215 for too long!

I am kind of excited for the halving to get here, I think it's going to kill off a lot of the big farms, we might just see home mining become viable again.  If not this halving then almost certainly the one following, unless btc price goes to the moon.

The problem is if they kill off the big farms, this means most hobby/home miners are gone.   And if that happens I see BTC going down in price, but I could be wrong.

The big farms I think will still be here for the most part though.  I think there are two paths most will follow.  1) They have so low of electricity they keep running and it makes no difference to them 2) With info structure already built they switch to next gen gear and are good for quite a while running it.

I would agree though I'm ready for having just to see what it does.

Need to remember that we have just been through an unofficial, difficulty driven, halving. What we saw was some older miners being removed by Bitmain & BW plus I expect most other Farms. So a small pullback in difficulty but then back to business as usual. I think so long as the 14 / 16nm products are available in time we will see the same again.

Rich

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   167,402,752,877 (+5.67%)
Adjust time:   After 215 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,213,604,553 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.8 minutes
Updated:   17:5 (4.2 minutes ago)




-1.2 = philipma1957  If I hit I will roll it over
+0.0 = adaseb
+1.3 = VRobb
+2.3 = leowonderful
+2.7 = HerbPean
+3.1 = tertius993 ---- will donate back if he wins thanks!

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.4 = ingiltere
+5.0 = tlhIlwI
+5.1 = wlefever
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = alh
+5.5 = pusttiu
+5.6 = fr4nkthetank
+5.7 = wpt1wpt1
+5.8 = flikflak
+6.0 = radiumsoup
+6.4 = zebedee
+6.5 = mavericklm
+6.6 = indiemax
+6.7 = Amph
+6.8 = RichBC

+7.0 = ezeminer
+7.2 = edonkey
+7.5 = HagssFIN
+7.8 = Kexkey
+8.8 = lanfeusst
+9.0 = alfacro
+12.4 = psi
 


the group in bold is the closest.  with 215 blocks left


https://blockchain.info/


402985 (Main Chain)   2016-03-16 21:02:19

402847 (Main Chain)   2016-03-16 00:10:46


139 blocks  in the time for 127   so we will be near 158 for the day

[ingiltere]

Why is it going up again? It was going down for days, I thought my pick was very close but now it's back to +5.50 again. Miners played with my feelings.

[Mikestang]

Why is it going up again?

Well, here's a new Chinese pool I just stumbled upon and its already sporting 30+PH: http://www.1hash.com/

Pools like this is why diff is going up again.  I'm not sure who is behind 1hash, but I bet there are a couple other pools out there of decent size that not many of us in the west have heard of yet.

[notlist3d]

Why is it going up again? It was going down for days, I thought my pick was very close but now it's back to +5.50 again. Miners played with my feelings.

It's so hard to follow right now speculation is pretty crappy. We just don't have enough facts to know reasons.  Just like hitting negative... lots of people guessed there were rumors.  But nothing official.

Price is not horrible at 417.  Could be better but I wont be to sad with current price.

[mavericklm]

+5.08% at this moment and very slowly up
where is bitfurry?! bw?!

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,607,907,362 (+4.53%)
Adjust time:   After 131 Blocks, About 21.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,211,944,772 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   9:0 (1.7 minutes ago)










-1.2 = philipma1957  If I hit I will roll it over
+0.0 = adaseb
+1.3 = VRobb
+2.3 = leowonderful
+2.7 = HerbPean
+3.1 = tertius993 ---- will donate back if he wins thanks!

+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.4 = ingiltere
+5.0 = tlhIlwI
+5.1 = wlefever
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = alh
+5.5 = pusttiu
+5.6 = fr4nkthetank
+5.7 = wpt1wpt1
+5.8 = flikflak
+6.0 = radiumsoup

+6.4 = zebedee
+6.5 = mavericklm
+6.6 = indiemax
+6.7 = Amph
+6.8 = RichBC
+7.0 = ezeminer
+7.2 = edonkey
+7.5 = HagssFIN
+7.8 = Kexkey
+8.8 = lanfeusst
+9.0 = alfacro
+12.4 = psi
 


the group in bold is the closest.  with 131 blocks left

[HagssFIN]

Exciting..

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,685,950,107 (+4.58%)
Adjust time:   After 122 Blocks, About 19.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,218,052,943 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
Updated:   16:0 (8.4 minutes ago

If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1218000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.4%
If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1220000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.58%

How I came up with this estimate:
Based on history, difficulty divided by the hash rate (GH/s) equals approx. 139,69838.. and it has been about this way through the difficulty history.

139,69838 * 1218000000 equals difficulty of 170152626840
139,69838 * 1220000000 equals difficulty of 170432023600

[philipma1957]

Exciting..

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,685,950,107 (+4.58%)
Adjust time:   After 122 Blocks, About 19.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,218,052,943 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
Updated:   16:0 (8.4 minutes ago

If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1218000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.4%
If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1220000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.58%

How I came up with this estimate:
Based on history, difficulty divided by the hash rate (GH/s) equals approx. 139,69838.. and it has been about this way through the difficulty history.

139,69838 * 1218000000 equals difficulty of 170152626840
139,69838 * 1220000000 equals difficulty of 170432023600

yeah but  that  1218ph  is not for the last 1850 blocks.  by the way it would be good for you if it where as your guess was  7.5 iirc



here is the best "real time"    lazy number


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   403094
Total BTC   15.327M
 
Difficulty   158427203767
Estimated   165490408235 in 106 blks
 
Network total   1103595.192 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.84 / 617 s



divide  16549 by 15842 = 1.044628  or  4.4628% jump with 106 blocks


the best 'real time' number is

2016/336 =  6  that is zero %






so I think block 401194  was the first block  this diff jump

401194 (Main Chain)   2016-03-05 00:31:41
403095 (Main Chain)   2016-03-17 16:17:52

so 1901 blocks in 304 hours 20 minutes should be 1826 = 4.11%     I am not sure and need to check this



I checked and got  this

401184 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 23:25:56
403096 (Main Chain)   2016-03-17 16:30:08


1912 blocks in  305 hours  should be  1830   

 so 1912/1830 = 4.48%   with 104 to go

[alh]

Is it just me, or does BTCQuote appear to be stuck at $413.36?

[philipma1957]

Is it just me, or does BTCQuote appear to be stuck at $413.36?

It would not be the first time it happened.

[HagssFIN]

Exciting..

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,685,950,107 (+4.58%)
Adjust time:   After 122 Blocks, About 19.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,218,052,943 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
Updated:   16:0 (8.4 minutes ago

If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1218000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.4%
If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1220000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.58%

How I came up with this estimate:
Based on history, difficulty divided by the hash rate (GH/s) equals approx. 139,69838.. and it has been about this way through the difficulty history.

139,69838 * 1218000000 equals difficulty of 170152626840
139,69838 * 1220000000 equals difficulty of 170432023600

yeah but  that  1218ph  is not for the last 1850 blocks.  by the way it would be good for you if it where as your guess was  7.5 iirc



here is the best "real time"    lazy number


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   403094
Total BTC   15.327M
 
Difficulty   158427203767
Estimated   165490408235 in 106 blks
 
Network total   1103595.192 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.84 / 617 s



divide  16549 by 15842 = 1.044628  or  4.4628% jump with 106 blocks


the best 'real time' number is

2016/336 =  6  that is zero %






so I think block 401194  was the first block  this diff jump

401194 (Main Chain)   2016-03-05 00:31:41
403095 (Main Chain)   2016-03-17 16:17:52

so 1901 blocks in 304 hours 20 minutes should be 1826 = 4.11%     I am not sure and need to check this



I checked and got  this

401184 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 23:25:56
403096 (Main Chain)   2016-03-17 16:30:08


1912 blocks in  305 hours  should be  1830  

 so 1912/1830 = 4.48%   with 104 to go

Oh, yeah. I didn't notice that it was an average of last 504 blocks.
So the hash rates shown in the history are always an average of 2016 blocks?

So the theory stands the same, but I got the hash rate numbers wrong.

[HerbPean]

i say 4-20 !!!

[philipma1957]

Exciting..

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,685,950,107 (+4.58%)
Adjust time:   After 122 Blocks, About 19.6 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,218,052,943 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
Updated:   16:0 (8.4 minutes ago

If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1218000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.4%
If the hash rate at the moment of difficulty change is ~1220000000 GH/s, difficulty rises approx. +7.58%

How I came up with this estimate:
Based on history, difficulty divided by the hash rate (GH/s) equals approx. 139,69838.. and it has been about this way through the difficulty history.

139,69838 * 1218000000 equals difficulty of 170152626840
139,69838 * 1220000000 equals difficulty of 170432023600

yeah but  that  1218ph  is not for the last 1850 blocks.  by the way it would be good for you if it where as your guess was  7.5 iirc



here is the best "real time"    lazy number


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   403094
Total BTC   15.327M
 
Difficulty   158427203767
Estimated   165490408235 in 106 blks
 
Network total   1103595.192 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.84 / 617 s



divide  16549 by 15842 = 1.044628  or  4.4628% jump with 106 blocks


the best 'real time' number is

2016/336 =  6  that is zero %






so I think block 401194  was the first block  this diff jump

401194 (Main Chain)   2016-03-05 00:31:41
403095 (Main Chain)   2016-03-17 16:17:52

so 1901 blocks in 304 hours 20 minutes should be 1826 = 4.11%     I am not sure and need to check this



I checked and got  this

401184 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 23:25:56
403096 (Main Chain)   2016-03-17 16:30:08


1912 blocks in  305 hours  should be  1830  

 so 1912/1830 = 4.48%   with 104 to go

Oh, yeah. I didn't notice that it was an average of last 504 blocks.
So the hash rates shown in the history are always an average of 2016 blocks?

So the theory stands the same, but I got the hash rate numbers wrong.

yeah this set of numbers below  are the full 2016 block for each adjustment.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   

go to bottom of the page


Difficulty History

Date                            Difficulty         Change      Hash Rate
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s


© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   165,198,333,679 (+4.27%)
Adjust time:   After 83 Blocks, About 13.4 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,187,425,646 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.2 minutes
Updated:   16:30 (2.7 minutes ago)








-1.2 = philipma1957  If I hit I will roll it over
+0.0 = adaseb
+1.3 = VRobb
+2.3 = leowonderful
+2.7 = HerbPean


+3.1 = tertius993 ---- will donate back if he wins thanks!
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.4 = ingiltere
+5.0 = tlhIlwI
+5.1 = wlefever
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = alh
+5.5 = pusttiu
+5.6 = fr4nkthetank

+5.7 = wpt1wpt1
+5.8 = flikflak
+6.0 = radiumsoup
+6.4 = zebedee
+6.5 = mavericklm
+6.6 = indiemax
+6.7 = Amph
+6.8 = RichBC
+7.0 = ezeminer
+7.2 = edonkey
+7.5 = HagssFIN
+7.8 = Kexkey
+8.8 = lanfeusst
+9.0 = alfacro
+12.4 = psi
 


the group in bold is the closest.  with 83 blocks left

If we drop just a little bit to 3.9 we end up have 40 days of 1% growth.

On feb 19 we were diff of 163.5
on mar 4  we were diff of 158.4
on march 17 we would be a diff of 164.6  that would last to march 30 or so


so from feb 19 to march 30    we would be   163.5 + 158.4 + 164.6 =

162.1 average for a 40 day time period.

If I had said on feb 19  we would average 162.1 diff from until march 30  most everyone would say you are fucking nuts.

[notlist3d]

Well if we end up with less then 5 I cant complaign to much.  I'm pretty happy with that compared to some other changes.  Also price is up just a tad at 418.  So guess not to bad.

Part of me is ready to see next gen gear hit.... and other half if wanting to ride current gen as long as I can.   I think next gen we will see another huge jump after production.

[RichBC]

So about 20 Blocks to go and and it looks like it will be between +4.3% & +4.4%...

Rich