[ANN][slock.it][Company] IoT meets blockchain - A TheDAO proposal

[bones261]

This community makes no sense. ICOs which only have a promise and song go to the moon, but an ICO that holds almost 12 million ETH in the till now has a market cap less than the assets it holds.

From an outside conventional view, it does make sense. Right now, The DAO is like a closed-end fund holding ETH. Unlike ETF's closed-end funds traditionally trade at a discount to their underlying holdings because there's no way for the shareholders to get their share of the underlying assets. This illiquidity isn't literally true of The DAO, but withdrawal means going through a two-Proposal two-step that's going to take well over a month. Given how volatile Ethers are, it should be no surprise (really) that The DAO trades with an "illiquidity discount." Three's only one way to arbitrage: withdrawing. Unlike the case with an ETF, there's no way to deposit ETH & get more DAO.

Right now, there's not enough excitement about The DAO's future investments to get everyone dreaming big dreams about it. There's no "blue sky." This lack of excitement is going to continue not only because it's raised a huge amount of funds but also because it's structured as a long-term investment fund - something like a venture-capital fund.

There's really only two way in which The DAO can become a ten-bagger:

1. It secures enough fees from successful fundings to be valued as a billion-dollar business, or:
2. Its ETH goes up ten times in value, and its investments are valued at cost.
[3: a mix of 1 & 2.]

So right now, if you want to trade it, it's best to view The DAO as a means to pick up ETH at a discount, provided you account for the illiquidity of withdrawal. It's a long-term investment, whose total roi would have to include the fun of participating in it.

Thank you for the well thought out reply. I now understand what I got myself into. I must admit, I invested in this as a speculation, not as a long term investment. I am not sure my paltry holdings of 2600 DAO is even going to be worth my time babysitting this investment. The only proposal I would even consider making a vote at the moment, is the one to hire someone to fix the DAO code. However, I would have preferred someone who actual can "fix" the code and spell out what they will do to accomplish that, make that proposal. So I will probably vote no.

[target]

Does anyone have the same issue?
When I "Watch" DAO tokens my Mist stops synchronising. When I "Unwatch" it it synchronises as normal again . Repeated it many times along with restarting and reinstalling the wallet.Can't move my tokens anywher and nobody from Etherium is bothered to fix this wallet issue.
How Etherium manages to mantain high profile not being able to provide essential functions
And how DAO is going to survive then?

The only solution that I was able to glean from the forum is to switch to myetherwallet.com. I haven't done it yet, since I seemed to fix the issue you are having now by upgrading from 0.7.3 to 0.7.4. This is still as buggy as hell. I can't just highlight my ether address in 0.7.4 and copy and paste. I have to select all, then copy and paste to notebook. Also, I sent some tokens from Poloniex to my wallet, and the wallet states "transaction not executed", but the tokens are showing up in my account, and etherscan.io states everything went through fine.
To be honest, I never got into ethereum until I got lured into this DAO be seeing it on Bittrex a couple of weeks ago. I found it intimidating and confusing. I'm still confused.

so myetherwallet has no known issues to which we can also send our DAOs there?
been meaning to send my DAOs to my hard drive yet i also don't want to experience any issues as i don't wanna work on my laptop much. i jsut wnat to turn it on and store my coins there and back to my PC.

[bitbitch]

i just still do not go along with the idea that great funding decisions are made by crowd consensus.

the contrarian thinker makes the big wins. The DAO seems fundamentally flawed. it is herding at its worst.

[Thereisnospoon]

i just still do not go along with the idea that great funding decisions are made by crowd consensus.

the contrarian thinker makes the big wins. The DAO seems fundamentally flawed. it is herding at its worst.

DAO is attempting  to be the next level in society economics evolution what is hard to rap your mind around.
I don’t believe in a crowd wisdom but I know that in surviving game the species who organize themselves usually are  the winners.
Whole DAO idea is very futuristic-imagine, to whom government would send a bill or fine-they definitely are not going to be happy about that .But I also think they will not be able to stop block chain evolution.
   There can be a lot of possible theories and profit incentives for creating it .Some say it can be a scam but noticing what kind of  people  are within this  newly created space it can't be  just a “"simple" “ scam.  Even if it’s so –it’s a massive one and you can profit anyway .
However what I  like  most is that DAO brings  revolutionary challenge to society.   
For me it’s a big gamble and I invested in it just for this very reason-it can be a very big success or very big failure. 

[bitbitch]

i just still do not go along with the idea that great funding decisions are made by crowd consensus.

the contrarian thinker makes the big wins. The DAO seems fundamentally flawed. it is herding at its worst.

DAO is attempting  to be the next level in society economics evolution what is hard to rap your mind around.
I don’t believe in a crowd wisdom but I know that in surviving game the species who organize themselves usually are  the winners.
Whole DAO idea is very futuristic-imagine, to whom government would send a bill or fine-they definitely are not going to be happy about that .But I also think they will not be able to stop block chain evolution.
   There can be a lot of possible theories and profit incentives for creating it .Some say it can be a scam but noticing what kind of  people  are within this  newly created space it can't be  just a “"simple" “ scam.  Even if it’s so –it’s a massive one and you can profit anyway .
However what I  like  most is that DAO brings  revolutionary challenge to society.   
For me it’s a big gamble and I invested in it just for this very reason-it can be a very big success or very big failure. 

thanks. it's certainly a brave new world experiment. i'll be watching it closely...from the outside. i'm expecting lessons to be learned and the next generation of DAO project to get it right.

[Nxtblg]

it's certainly a brave new world experiment. i'll be watching it closely...from the outside. i'm expecting lessons to be learned and the next generation of DAO project to get it right.

A bet on a more-or-less motivated crowd...it's certainly one to watch. 'Twasn't all that long ago that the wisdom-of-crowds in its entirety was scoffed at. Who knows how far crowd-wisdom can be pushed?

I think one weak point will be found with The DAO specifically, in that it was open to all more-or-less motivated comers. That weakness will not be duplicated in a DAO that assembles a more focused crowd. What about (say) a shop that crowdfunds using a DAO whose equity is only adverted to its employees and regular customers? This kind of crowd is more focused. Think of the shops you shop at. If you had funds tied up in a DAO focused on the shop, for buying new investor and/or expanding, would you keep your eye peeled for (say) a new trend that would financially help "your" shop?

One story I remember from those old investment books I liked to read was about Wal-Mart. It was listed on the NASDAQ (I think on the OTC-BB) in the late 1970s when it was growing in the Arkansas area. Any business-astute customer had about three years to ask one simple question, "Is Wal-Mart a listed company?", and act on it by buying some Wal-mart stock: (s)he would have had about a 500-1 gainer a/o 2000.   

[TrueAnon]

i just still do not go along with the idea that great funding decisions are made by crowd consensus.

the contrarian thinker makes the big wins. The DAO seems fundamentally flawed. it is herding at its worst.

DAO is attempting  to be the next level in society economics evolution what is hard to rap your mind around.
I don’t believe in a crowd wisdom but I know that in surviving game the species who organize themselves usually are  the winners.
Whole DAO idea is very futuristic-imagine, to whom government would send a bill or fine-they definitely are not going to be happy about that .But I also think they will not be able to stop block chain evolution.
   There can be a lot of possible theories and profit incentives for creating it .Some say it can be a scam but noticing what kind of  people  are within this  newly created space it can't be  just a “"simple" “ scam.  Even if it’s so –it’s a massive one and you can profit anyway .
However what I  like  most is that DAO brings  revolutionary challenge to society.   
For me it’s a big gamble and I invested in it just for this very reason-it can be a very big success or very big failure. 

I find this to be the best breakdown thus far for this DAO project.  This is not your everyday same coin like most crap we see on markets.  Will take time to see where the developments end up with it, thusly where the price goes (who the heck knows)....different take on it.  Hopefully becomes success and not another dead crapcoin.  For now at least I'm more safe in something like WBB who has real development done and releases soon for all in public. - actual results which is nice.

[klee]

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDao/comments/4ljzic/can_the_split_dao_reward_token_mechanism_be/d3ociic

"Let me try to frame the problem now in an abstract fashion. I may be totally wrong in this analysis, but hope this produces a useful conversation for the DAO community:

"The measurement of 'investment done by a DAO' as the 'outflow of funds from the main DAO contract' might be bound to be fraught by troubles. If this is indeed what the DAO 1.0 framework does, then it will reflect itself in a wide range of attacks / community fights when DAOs split

Some examples:

    1) Not every investment is revenue generating; some are maintenance oriented:

    Examine the Slock IT security proposal and one realises that if the DAO accepts it, then it is not producing a 'return generating asset'. It is producing a 'maintenance cost' for the DAO. Hedge funds and VC firms have a distinction between 'maintenance costs' (cost to analyse investments, maintain funds, communicate with LPs etc. and 'actual investments that can produce returns' (for example an investment in Uber). Hedge funds and VC firms logically strive to minimise 'maintenance costs' and maximise 'actual investments that can produce returns'.

    The current method of DAO accounting lumps 'maintenance costs' and 'actual investments that can produce returns' into just one bucket i.e. 'investments'. This is fine as long as the DAO has never been split.

    If the DAO splits, the child DAO obviously will not want to treat the maintenance costs of the parent DAO as 'investments' made by the parent DAO. They will want their own reward tokens to be diluted only when the parent DAO makes 'actual investments that can produce returns'. After all, why should the child subsidise the the maintenance costs of the parent when it has split?

    I see no mechanism making this distinction between 'maintenance cost' and 'actual investments that can produce returns' in Framework 1.0.

    2) The firing and rehiring of contractors:

    The DAO framework explicitly encourages the firing and re-hiring of contractors incase quality of work produced is sub-par, ether volatility changes project economics etc.

    So, assume the DAO commits 1 million ether to a contract today. This is the first and only investment it has done. Reward tokens corresponding to these million ether are generated (106 * 1018). Now, the DAO splits and the childDAO must receive 40% of rewards from the contract and the parent 60%. The contractor spends 0.1 million ether and then is fired returning 0.9 mil ether back to the parentDAO. The parent then renegotiates the same contract for 0.1 million ether but with a different address controlled by the same contractor (maybe the price of ether has jumped 10x). How does the reward token managed account upgrade to reflect the new reality? Who gives it this new information?"

[Thereisnospoon]

i just still do not go along with the idea that great funding decisions are made by crowd consensus.

the contrarian thinker makes the big wins. The DAO seems fundamentally flawed. it is herding at its worst.

DAO is attempting  to be the next level in society economics evolution what is hard to rap your mind around.
I don’t believe in a crowd wisdom but I know that in surviving game the species who organize themselves usually are  the winners.
Whole DAO idea is very futuristic-imagine, to whom government would send a bill or fine-they definitely are not going to be happy about that .But I also think they will not be able to stop block chain evolution.
   There can be a lot of possible theories and profit incentives for creating it .Some say it can be a scam but noticing what kind of  people  are within this  newly created space it can't be  just a “"simple" “ scam.  Even if it’s so –it’s a massive one and you can profit anyway .
However what I  like  most is that DAO brings  revolutionary challenge to society.   
For me it’s a big gamble and I invested in it just for this very reason-it can be a very big success or very big failure. 

I find this to be the best breakdown thus far for this DAO project.  This is not your everyday same coin like most crap we see on markets.  Will take time to see where the developments end up with it, thusly where the price goes (who the heck knows)....different take on it.  Hopefully becomes success and not another dead crapcoin.  For now at least I'm more safe in something like WBB who has real development done and releases soon for all in public. - actual results which is nice.

In whole context the phrase "follow the money" brings a different light to me.

[margaret21555]

when will dao go to the moon？is it failed？the price is…

[bitbitch]

i await to be pleasantly surprised, but this experiment in crowd investing has so much potential to become a complete disaster - The DAO and 'only invest what you can afford to lose' were made for each other.

[Anduril_FotW]

Is the SlockIt voting already happening ? Anybody know where I can find info/ updates about this ?

[Thereisnospoon]

Is the SlockIt voting already happening ? Anybody know where I can find info/ updates about this ?

As far as I know it's  a main source.
https://forum.daohub.org/latest

[target]

i did bought few thinking i can earn quickly by dumping but never have i seen people keeping DAOs quite tight.
and so I also kept mine. if someday it will be huge, I probably would buy my lambo as well.

[bitbitch]

i'm awaiting the Lambocoin ICO announcement. it has to come 

[mtnsaa]

i await to be pleasantly surprised, but this experiment in crowd investing has so much potential to become a complete disaster - The DAO and 'only invest what you can afford to lose' were made for each other.

You really can't lose that much if you split, that is if you were a long term ETH holder. If you bought ETH specially to get into the DAO at these prices (even at 1-100 ratio) then there's a chance Ethereum goes back to $5 or even less in the next months but that's the only real risk.

I personally think that ETH price will have ups & downs but it will eventually hit the $20-25 range. Maybe even this year or early 2017.

[TrueAnon]

Maybe DAO can learn from WBB/1EX?
 

[bitbitch]

i await to be pleasantly surprised, but this experiment in crowd investing has so much potential to become a complete disaster - The DAO and 'only invest what you can afford to lose' were made for each other.

You really can't lose that much if you split, that is if you were a long term ETH holder. If you bought ETH specially to get into the DAO at these prices (even at 1-100 ratio) then there's a chance Ethereum goes back to $5 or even less in the next months but that's the only real risk.

I personally think that ETH price will have ups & downs but it will eventually hit the $20-25 range. Maybe even this year or early 2017.

how many ETH will there be this time next year? pushing 95 million?

[Nxtblg]

how many ETH will there be this time next year? pushing 95 million?

At present, it's 80.57 million. Mining emission's 5 per 17 seconds, from what I saw in a comment; I'm not sure how to account for uncle rewards.

https://etherscan.io/stats/supply

The initial release was on July 30th of last year. Assuming that mining started that same day, there've been ~8.2 million block rewards and ~0.44 million uncle rewards for a total of ~8.64 million additional ether over ten months. From what I've been able to dig up, PoS will begin "before November 1st 2017."

So...your question depends upon your timeframe. Using a very basic/choppy division of the above stats gives an increase of - roughly - less than 900,000 new ethers per month. I chop-rounded upwards to give you a prudent figure to work with. Using these choppy calcs, the supply should be somewhere near 95 million in about 16 or 17 months - which is the timeframe in which PoS is scheduled to start.

Best I can do.

[Its About Sharing]

how many ETH will there be this time next year? pushing 95 million?

At present, it's 80.57 million. Mining emission's 5 per 17 seconds, from what I saw in a comment; I'm not sure how to account for uncle rewards.

https://etherscan.io/stats/supply

The initial release was on July 30th of last year. Assuming that mining started that same day, there've been ~8.2 million block rewards and ~0.44 million uncle rewards for a total of ~8.64 million additional ether over ten months. From what I've been able to dig up, PoS will begin "before November 1st 2017."

So...your question depends upon your timeframe. Using a very basic/choppy division of the above stats gives an increase of - roughly - less than 900,000 new ethers per month. I chop-rounded upwards to give you a prudent figure to work with. Using these choppy calcs, the supply should be somewhere near 95 million in about 16 or 17 months - which is the timeframe in which PoS is scheduled to start.

Best I can do.

Interesting. And at the POS switch, they are going to greatly cut the emission down from 17 million a year to, I forget the number, is it 2 million a year or ?

Thanks in advance,
IAS