[PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th]

[furuknap]

I guess what I don't understand (in general and not aimed at BFMINES which is actually one of the lower priced mining bonds), is how a lot of the mining bonds that offer no re-investment plans are going to "survive" long enough for bond owners to even make back the initial price in dividends vs. inevitable decline of the share value.

Well, I guess it is a question of whether you believe in the PPG theory (perpetual proportional growth). If you do, no mining investment will ever make back it's initial investment and Bitcoin mining is doomed. We'll also quickly run into some limitations of physics in a couple of years, but let's leave splitting silicon atoms out of the picture for now.

If, though, you believe that mining may rise on averge around 10-15% for eight to ten months and then flatten out, then mining investments make sense again.

Even better, if you believe that some providers may fail still (at the level of what BFL has already done) or if people realize that mining isn't as lucrative as they thought (BTC50 for a 13GHs AM blade, c'mon) then mining investments become lucrative (and people will come flocking back).

Any mining investment, whether contracts, companies, or hardware, will always be a bet against difficulty rising too far and too quickly. Even AM suffers from this; the investments required to keep their share of the network haven't been paid for and must come from future dividends. Too much difficulty rise and costs go up. effectively you're just outsourcing your reinvestment strategy to friedcat. He may be in a much better bargaining position than other any individual, though, and I'm guessing that's why people pay a premium on those shares.

.b

[furuknap]

I am aware it's not an 'ownership' stock, but I still can't shake the feeling that you purchased a 120Gh miner for BTC40 (likely less, I purchased mine including US shipping for 30) and have resold it to share holders for BTC400 and change (since the bond represents only 100 of 120 GHs/ after bonus dividend).

Just comes off as a little "pricey" (insert huge smiley face). Then again, I pretty much consider all mining bonds "scams" at this point. The market is ripe for suckers I guess.

I've responded to this multiple times; keep in mind that the cost to a manufacturer rarely is a measure of the price or value of the output.

My costs, though, are far above BTC40, and even direct costs to not include the risk I'm assuming on guaranteeing the output of the mine. In my calculations, I've afforded myself a risk premium of around 8% per year, and I've assumed that the mining will be running for three years. If it runs longer, great, I've earned more than 8% on the risk and investors gain more in return on their investments.

Here's a simple question if you believe this is so lucrative; seeing how abundant miners on pre-orders are these days, if it was so profitable to run a mining contract cheaper than I do, why aren't there a lot of other assets popping up at more competitive prices? In fact, if you think it's so profitable, why don't you sell your own miner as a mining contract for BTC300 or 200? You'd make a killing in the market, selling at half the price of both TAT.VM and me, and you'd be much more 'honorable' than us 'scammers'.

.b

[RHA]

Furuknap, stop trolling here. You wanted to speculate (buy lower and sell higher after good news about chips) on 100TH with no big success.
The shareholders (near all of them) bought the shares for dividends, not for speculation. What Tytus do with his shares is of no importance to shareholders, because it doesn't change the sum of the dividends.

Now you have no 100TH shares and we aren't interested in reading your opinions again and again. And keep for yourself the theory about BFMINES costs, risks etc.. We know how to count on and what to think about it.
Keep this thread clean.

[furuknap]

Furuknap, stop trolling here. You wanted to speculate (buy lower and sell higher after good news about chips) on 100TH with no big success.

Because you have no idea when I bought, when I sold, or what success I had, I'm going to put as much faith in the rest of your comments as I do in the above statement.

The shareholders (near all of them) bought the shares for dividends, not for speculation. What Tytus do with his shares is of no importance to shareholders, because it doesn't change the sum of the dividends.

I'm guessing that's why there's no trading going on.

BTW it does matter because if tytus decides what you can sell your shares for then he's essentially controlling your ability to get out if you need. He has written extensively about how 100th gives investors an opportunity to get out.

They still can, of course, as long as he approves. If you buy above what he thinks is reasonable, you're a sucker and he'll take away your money like he has three times now. Someone tried after the announcement about the latest delays, for example, to get out at above 0.3 a few days ago, but that wasn't allowed.

What rate do you think you'll be allowed to exit if there are even further delays? 0.25? 0.2? What if tytus needs more money to fund something? What if Dave's facilities need more power?

Investors who buy now risk being left with the bill; they pay a premium in advance (up to 30% if I recall the latest BIDs) so that tytus doesn't have to run any risk of exceeding the budget. If he does, he'll just get that money from those sucker investors who paid more than he approved.

I don't care about the prices; tytus can sell for a bitcent if that's his wish. In fact, it would be great because at those levels, I might actually consider the risk of further manipulation.

It is, however, vitally important how he acts in the market because this ultimately defines who takes the risk and who can just walk over to the virtual ATM and withdraw more money from investors.

Actions like these also ultimately affects the entire Bitcoin asset trade; when actions such as the ones tytus have done are just shrugged off, we'll never be able to attract serious investments because the people with serious investments will see actions like these as madness.

Now you have no 100TH shares and we aren't interested in reading your opinions again and again. And keep for yourself the theory about BFMINES costs, risks etc.. We know how to count on and what to think about it.
Keep this thread clean.

I do think someone asked explicitly about this. I guess they should have asked in the BFMines thread, but they did direct their comments directly at me, just like you are doing now.

I'd be happy to refrain from talking about BFMines in here, though, as long as there aren't any direct questions or comments about it. I strongly urge anyone to keep those comments and questions in the BFMines thread instead so the focus here can remain on 100th.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236310

.b

[gebir]

furuknap = mii6 ?? 

[RHA]

OK, to keep this thread clean, let's continue the dead horse bashing in furuknap's own thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236310

[gaba]

=> we will sell shares next week (at market price) to get funds for additional expenses. I have no idea how many but most likely not more than 5000 shares.

They just put the 5000 wall,oh no,only 1000.

Market price? Right now (on the market) you can buy the same board from 100TH-mine project for 1000EUR. August delivery. 16,6 BTC for 25GH.
With share price (0.3 BTC) hashing power from 100TH-mine project is not that attractive any more.

[gaba]

...and boom, big sales. Someone thinks the same way. New price  is 0.19

[gyverlb]

=> we will sell shares next week (at market price) to get funds for additional expenses. I have no idea how many but most likely not more than 5000 shares.

They just put the 5000 wall,oh no,only 1000.

Market price? Right now (on the market) you can buy the same board from 100TH-mine project for 1000EUR. August delivery. 16,6 BTC for 25GH.
With share price (0.3 BTC) hashing power from 100TH-mine project is not that attractive any more.

Actually you'll pay more than 20% VAT more which makes it ~20BTC for 25GH. An equivalent share price (for 200MH/s / share) would then be 0.16BTC.

You must consider the fact that the 100TH mine should be delivered before (they are the first bitfury clients) and should then have ~ one month head start (first to be delivered and no shipping delays to you).
Another advantage is that you won't have to operate any hardware and when you feel like selling it, you'll sell it on an exchange instead of using an escrow and shipping it wherever your buyer lives (hoping nothing happens to it or paying for insurance).
There should be more buyers for 200MH/s chunks than 25GH/s one: it should drive the price up too.

The actual value should still be in the 0.2 to 0.5 BTC range depending on many things. Too bad I don't have any Bitcoin to invest in this anymore: I maxed out my mining rigs and will actually have to sell hardware shortly because I can't use more power where I live and I expect an Avalon shortly.

I might invest in bitfury hardware, but I've been burned by bASIC cancellation and Avalon delays so I see ASICMINER and the 100TH mine has means of diversification. The only ones I never considered are BFL (talk about being burned...).

[grimholt]

We are having problems finding contractors able to produce and assemble PCBs for us. The best time we are getting for the completion of the process is 2013-07-25. We will try to get faster production schedule but current worse case scenario is deployment of the mine by the end of July.

It's been 10 days since this report now. Could we get an update soon? How is the hunt for contractors going?

[kaerf]

We are having problems finding contractors able to produce and assemble PCBs for us. The best time we are getting for the completion of the process is 2013-07-25. We will try to get faster production schedule but current worse case scenario is deployment of the mine by the end of July.

It's been 10 days since this report now. Could we get an update soon? How is the hunt for contractors going?

I can share some info I got via PM on the 5th. They've sent chips out to be assembled with PCB and hope to have them done in 20 days (from the 5th). After they get the boards, it will be very quick (maybe a day) to rack the hardware.


I believe the hardware 100TH is deploying is the same being sold by megabigpower and bitfurystrikesback, so you can see how simple it is to assemble those boards. One thing that I'd have a question about is if there is enough power at the data center. The original power estimates in the business plan say the mine will require ~25kW, but based on the H-Board hardware it looks like it will be more like 62.5-100 kW (big range...website states 400W per 400GH, but I think buzzdave stated 250-300W). The other thing to worry about is network capacity and the private pool setup. I know ASICMINER was slow to deploy due to network load...hopefully that problem has been anticipated.

[gebir]

When will the new report?

[RHA]

From the last report: "The best time we are getting for the completion of the process is 2013-07-25."
Let's wait patiently until this date. What else can we do?

[grimholt]

From the last report: "The best time we are getting for the completion of the process is 2013-07-25."
Let's wait patiently until this date. What else can we do?

We can't do much. tytus can, however, and it wouldn't require much effort. I don't expect a report very often as they are usually elaborate and/or meant for big news. A small update, however, could be anything from insight on the latest phone call with the contractor, an email conversation etc.

There are a lot of shareholders who have spent considerable amounts of money on this project, and it would be nice with an update a bit more often than every two weeks.

I do realize that tytus and the rest of his team are probably very busy right now, but at the very least I think the shareholders deserve to know whether the PCB's are on track to being completed within the 25th, or if we can expect further delays.

[TheSwede75]

Not answering serious questions on the forum while share price drops. I guess Tytus is from the 'Friedcat' school of promotion and marketing.

[zrn]

based on my knowledge : there will be about month of delay... ;(

[grimholt]

based on my knowledge : there will be about month of delay... ;(

Where is your knowledge derived from?

Also, are you talking about one month delay from the original plan (which we are already looking at, as the plan was to deploy the mine by July 1st) or one month of additional delay on top of the delay we are already experiencing?

[TheSwede75]

The lack of response isn't exactly reassuring. I am prob dumping my stock soon if nothing is communicated.

[furuknap]

I hate to say "I told you so," but...

I bought 100th somewhere between 0.10 and 0.12 because with the risks involved at the time, that was a good price. Now, all we know is that tytus needed to sell 'up to 5000 shares at market price' to pay for getting the mine up, and barely managed to sell 1200. That means either that the need wasn't actually there or that the need is still there and we'll see a massive dump at far lower prices shortly.

If 'at market price' meant 0.3 as seems to be the case, this means a need for BTC1500 or what was at the time $150.000 (roughly the same as today).

With BIDs at 0.2 and assuming the need is still the same, that means another ~6000 shares must be sold to cover the increased costs. There isn't anywhere near a BID side to support this, though, so now we're suddenly talking about a risk of default instead or that tytus needs to go outside the market to acquire funds through loans or other means of financing.

In either case, 100th is in dire straits, I'm sorry to say. They may gamble that their costs wont be collected until the mine operates and that they can pay for costs then or the founders may step in and upfront the costs themselves. Regardless, those costs must be paid by someone, and I fear that 'someone' will be the investors.

.b

PS: I'm still assuming that tytus is an honest person and that the increased cost won't simply 'go away' (which would indicate the need was never there and that the sale was done to line someone's pockets).

[Dexter770221]

Speculations, speculations, speculations....

Don't sell a skin on living bear...