AM is increasing now. But it stop at 1PH. I know how PMB works. Thats why I'm continusly wroting "in some period of time".
AM example is good to see that price of the share has nothing to do with math. TAT.VIRTUALMINE gives more dividends that AM (same BTC invested) and it's cheap.
It just doesn't make any sense to compare a mining bond with guaranteed, but diminishing returns, to a company like AM.
Sure, AM's dividends might be lower for a few weeks, but they are holding back funds to invest in new technologies that should increase shareholder value over the longer term. So... it does have to do with math, it's just not a back of the napkin calculation you can do for a direct comparison to a bond.
Investing in ASIC, delivered to your door or hosted by someone else is mostly speculative right now: there are chances that this will be a large bubble burst in the end. As it's difficult to account for every ASIC sold it's near impossible to make a smart move based on projections (avoiding playing might be advisable at this point).
It's even more difficult than math: models with a fixed percentage increase of hashrate every 2016 blocks are mostly useless. They don't factor market saturation, risks of low hardware MTBF / government confiscations, risk of new player with huge pockets and speculative behavior (investing in huge amounts of private 28nm chips). Risk assesment is highly tricky in this environment.
The hashrate could continue on an exponential curve, hit a ceiling or even decrease if the largest hardware providers are hit by component failures (unlikely to the point of being nearly impossible though as there are enough vendors to reduce this risk).
Everything is possible, if most of the alternative sources of ASICs that have yet to prove themselves fall on their face (like bASIC did), existing customers/investors in mines could still get a nice ROI. But with huge delivery delays for many sources, large amount of hardware could be delivered even after the point where mining with ASIC is barely profitable, eliminating any possibility of positive ROI for most.
So take your best guess and sell/buy/keep your BTC for better days...
I've reduced my position on the 200TH mine (at 0.4 and 0.5 BTC I believed it was too risky to keep all of my shares) but I could afford it: I was an early adopter and have already reached break-even.
People who came on board at 0.2 or 0.3 don't have this luxury, they are either:
- all-in hoping for a slowdown in the current curve that would earn them quite a bit,
- believe the exponential increase is here to stay for at least 6+ months and prefer to limit their loss by selling now.
