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 Author Topic: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th]  (Read 468852 times)
fently
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Bleh!

 May 30, 2013, 08:39:42 PM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?
Since each share = 200MH/s, you may use a standard mining profitability calculator to estimate the profit for each share.
modify hash rate to 200
modify difficulty to the estimated difficulty for July
then deduct management cost and electricity cost

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but given the above quoted exchange, it needs to be said: you need to factor in risk. The project could still fail to deliver expected outcomes.
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Eric Muyser
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You can't kill math.

 May 31, 2013, 05:46:59 AM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?
Since each share = 200MH/s, you may use a standard mining profitability calculator to estimate the profit for each share.
modify hash rate to 200
modify difficulty to the estimated difficulty for July
then deduct management cost and electricity cost

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but given the above quoted exchange, it needs to be said: you need to factor in risk. The project could still fail to deliver expected outcomes.

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
furuknap
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 May 31, 2013, 03:08:28 PM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.

.b

Eric Muyser
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You can't kill math.

 May 31, 2013, 05:03:11 PM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.

.b

Right, that's what I mean. I think, meaning, it's my opinion, that the current price is sufficiently cheap enough for me to risk never seeing these Bitcoins again, taking in consideration the profit and dividends if they succeed. I have faith in bitfury. Not as much as friedcat though.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
Transisto
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 May 31, 2013, 05:14:37 PM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.
..............

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss. ..

Not a complete loss because the chip order is insured.

Code:
If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine
with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s (or 0.2GH/s per
raised 1USD). If the chips fail to achieve the expected power efficiency the manufacturer
will renegotiate the management deal with the hosting data center and compensate the
100TH-mine project for the losses. If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in
mining will occur. The manufacturer will undertake an effort to reimburse the investors
not only for the invested capital but also for the lost income up to the level of 10 USD per
invested 5 USD
kaerf
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 May 31, 2013, 06:02:26 PM

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

And this is something that we all need to keep adjusting in our calculations. I made some projections weeks (months?) ago about the potential earnings for 100TH. The projections have changed dramatically since BFL/Avalon have delayed and AM is not being aggressive with their rollout. My current projections are nearly double of what I initially calculated.

IF 100TH can meet their projected timelines, the price is still good (of course this all depends on what kind of ROI you want and how fast you want).

FWIW, I don't think projecting more than 24 months out makes any sense. IMO, the earnings curve quickly plateaus starting around 18 months from now.
MPOE-PR
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 June 01, 2013, 10:06:06 AM

Code:
If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine
with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s (or 0.2GH/s per
raised 1USD). If the chips fail to achieve the expected power efficiency the manufacturer
will renegotiate the management deal with the hosting data center and compensate the
100TH-mine project for the losses. If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in
mining will occur. The manufacturer will undertake an effort to reimburse the investors
not only for the invested capital but also for the lost income up to the level of 10 USD per
invested 5 USD

I don't know who in his right mind imagines such fantasy is worth the forum paper it's printed on. With what money will a manufacturer that blew its product compensate investors "not only for capital but also for "lost" income"? If it didn't need the capital to build the chip it wouldn't need the investors. If it spends the capital on building the chip it has nothing left over to compensate anyone. Look at bASIC (this guy's previous pseudo"investment"), look at BFL, look wherever you want. This "we invest and if things go well we make bank yet if things go badly we get everything back plus more" doesn't exist outside of Kramerica Industries.

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furuknap
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 June 02, 2013, 02:18:15 AM

Tytus,

According to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=221200.0, Metabank and Bitfury have started accepting orders for their miners. Is it safe to assume based on that post that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working?

.b

furuknap
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 June 02, 2013, 03:51:13 PM

Tytus,

According to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=221200.0, Metabank and Bitfury have started accepting orders for their miners. Is it safe to assume based on that post that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working?

.b

I can say that 99.9% of the chip will have no problems with power supply and shreds

I don't know enough about chip design to fully understand whether this is the test for failure that was pending until now, but this at least to me seems like good news. I know performance still needs to be tested.

Can someone fluent in Russian and English please read that post and see what is actually being said?

We're really eager for an official update from 100TH...

.b

Xtc
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;u

 June 02, 2013, 06:37:54 PM

Quote
that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working
No, chips are not yet delivered

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183368.msg2349211#msg2349211
Quote
статус когда нам доставят микросхемы думаю узнаю завтра-послезавтра, надеюсь на неделе получим.
At this week
furuknap
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 June 03, 2013, 04:01:59 AM

Quote
that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working
No, chips are not yet delivered

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183368.msg2349211#msg2349211
Quote
статус когда нам доставят микросхемы думаю узнаю завтра-послезавтра, надеюсь на неделе получим.
At this week

Ah, thanks!

In other news, 100TH was listed as the second most desired Bitcoin asset last week on Reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinStocks/wiki/rbs3

.b

kaerf
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 June 03, 2013, 04:09:09 AM

Quote
that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working
No, chips are not yet delivered

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183368.msg2349211#msg2349211
Quote
статус когда нам доставят микросхемы думаю узнаю завтра-послезавтра, надеюсь на неделе получим.
At this week

Ah, thanks!

In other news, 100TH was listed as the second most desired Bitcoin asset last week on Reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinStocks/wiki/rbs3

.b

interesting survey, but pretty small sample size. 100th is 2nd with 2 votes :p. The other interesting fact is that none of the people surveyed said they owned 100th.

slightboyme
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 June 03, 2013, 11:05:07 PM

I may have missed this but what is the relationship between this project and the Metabank 120G pre order that is going on right now? Are we talking about the same timeline or this is going to be online sooner? I am deciding which one I should invest.

Thanks
furuknap
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 June 03, 2013, 11:06:48 PM

I may have missed this but what is the relationship between this project and the Metabank 120G pre order that is going on right now? Are we talking about the same timeline or this is going to be online sooner? I am deciding which one I should invest.

100TH is a mine
Metabank is a miner

What a difference an r makes :-)

Both use Bitfury's ASICs, though.

.b

gebir
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To be or to have

 June 03, 2013, 11:17:55 PM

100th will be the first.

100TH - July
Metabank miner - August-October (?)
slightboyme
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 June 03, 2013, 11:47:27 PM

I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?

Thanks
kaerf
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 June 04, 2013, 01:44:20 AM

I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?

Thanks

I'm not sure when metabank will get their chips, but they are getting them from tytus et al.

If metabank gets the chips at the same time (or very soon after) as 100th, then I guess it could be a race to see who is able to assemble their hardware faster. I don't know how Metabank will package their ASICS, but 100th doesn't need to put things into a pretty box, so this could potentially give 100th a slight edge.
/speculation

Metabank definitely offers a good price, but 100th offers ( a little bit of ) liquidity.
Eric Muyser
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You can't kill math.

 June 04, 2013, 02:21:24 AM

I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?

Thanks

I'm not sure when metabank will get their chips, but they are getting them from tytus et al.

If metabank gets the chips at the same time (or very soon after) as 100th, then I guess it could be a race to see who is able to assemble their hardware faster. I don't know how Metabank will package their ASICS, but 100th doesn't need to put things into a pretty box, so this could potentially give 100th a slight edge.
/speculation

Metabank definitely offers a good price, but 100th offers ( a little bit of ) liquidity.

I missed how this all began but I always assumed Bitfury made a deal with the 100TH guys to create chip for them, 100TH manufactures 100TH in their Taiwan factory for themselves, then for Metabank to sell on behalf of Bitfury. Kind of like you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.

@EricMuyser | EricMuyser.com | OTC - "Defeat is a state of mind; no one is ever defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality" - Bruce Lee
gebir
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To be or to have

 June 04, 2013, 02:55:48 PM

Code:
Chip packaging delay
The packaging facility will ship the chips on 2013-06-10. We have 2 weeks delay :-(
Created on 2013-06-04 15:44:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-04 15:45:33 by koji;

furuknap
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 June 04, 2013, 03:27:12 PM

Code:
Chip packaging delay
The packaging facility will ship the chips on 2013-06-10. We have 2 weeks delay :-(
Created on 2013-06-04 15:44:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-04 15:45:33 by koji;

Ouch... What does this mean for the Bitbet thing from Bitfury? Is it even possible that the bet can still be Yes? From what I read, only the public demo must be announced two weeks in advance, but a private confirmation can come at any time, so perhaps there is still hope for Yes-betters?

.b

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