Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.

Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?

[1714808382]

1714808382

[r0ach]

Nice try, but nobody is going to buy your Eth scamcoin in lieu of BTC.  Your post history is pages upon pages of claiming BTC will crash while Eth will go up.  You're either a paid shill or underwater Ethereum scam victim.

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

Fuck you and your scamcoins.

Read it and weep:

The Ethereum Paradox:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Nice try, but nobody is going to buy your Eth scamcoin in lieu of BTC.  Your post history is pages upon pages of claiming BTC will crash while Eth will go up.  You're either a paid shill or underwater Ethereum scam victim.

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

Fuck you and your scamcoins.

Read it and weep:

The Ethereum Paradox:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

Erhm.. you realize that people can actually check my post history and see that you're lying?

[marcus_of_augustus]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

You again. Why are you here?

How many unicorn horns have you got stuck through your pumpkinhead already? ...

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

You again. Why are you here?

How many unicorn horns have you got stuck through your pumpkinhead already? ...

Breaking the illusions of the corrupt is a good sport.

[r0ach]

Merv, do you read the bullshit you type?

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

That looks like it was written by a used car salesmen snorting cocaine while filling out an application to become a politician.  You and your pinky ring can get the fuck out.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Merv, do you read the bullshit you type?

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

That looks like it was written by a used car salesmen snorting cocaine while filling out an application to become a politician.  You and your pinky ring can get the fuck out.

Out of my 29 last posts you find this post, where I expressed my satisfaction in a calm and restrained manner, after multiplying my crypto wealth about +3x (at the time of the post). And you call me a coked up used car salesman in the context of this place, where people get uncontrollably euphoric after a 7% rise in bitcoin value?

[Gillette]

r0ach, your chicken began recovering 

[r0ach]

I've noticed the latest shill tactic is to constantly bump old topics that say stuff like "will the price of $300 hold" haha.

[r0ach]

I've noticed the latest shill tactic is to constantly bump old topics that say stuff like "will the price of $300 hold" haha.

That's not a shill tactic. That's an increase-my-post-count tactic by people getting paid to spam this site with ads.

I looked around trying to quantify areas of concentration of sig ad spammers and there seemed to be tons in the general section and altcoin section, but not many seemed to post in things like Adam's long ass thread.

[classicsucks]

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

Pumping market capitalization prior to a subsidy halving is a false economy that only benefits the recipients of the subsidy – think about it. A higher bitcoin price, during the next two months, will neither save any faltering mining operations, nor will it increase mining diversity after the weakest players leave the field. So, what is the rationale behind this mythical halving rally that’s got the market eagerly buying every other day? Pump the price of the current 25 BTC subsidy, and then have price sell-off when the subsidy has halved?

[Karartma1]

It took me almost 20 minutes to read this whole thread and I'm debt with everybody (mostly) who contributed here. I had very confused ideas about the halving while now I feel a bit more informed about what I will have to consider as a btc invested guy and btc tech lover.
More importantly I think I know better about ETH as well.

[r0ach]

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

God, these posts are hilarious to read.  This guy is talking like the charts of anything on the planet are interchangable and it doesn't matter if he's trading Bitcoin, corn, or uranium.  All markets have their own unique and somewhat predictable ways.  Anyone that deals with Bitcoin on a regular basis knows where the support hard floors are on this that have no chance of being breached.  He's a vampire and thought he was allowed to drink some blood because he conjured "a trend" that doesn't exist, which he believed would allow him to slide into some impossible number to hit.

He shorted and lost.  Now he's rage posting saying we should all stop buying Bitcoin because it might cause a miner somewhere in Timbuktu to profit.  That part of the argument was even dumber.  We aren't "pumping Bitcoin for miners".  Miners don't have an infinite number of coins to dump like it's a Lehman Brothers fire sale.  75% of Bitcoin has already been mined and inflation is going from 8% to 4% with halving.

These unsuccessful vampires really just need to fuck off and go find a real job besides wealth extraction.  But since they have no idea how to traverse this market at all, I'd prefer they stay so they can just donate money to us with failed trades.  I could go on for hours about this but I just don't feel like typing anymore because these people are fucking pathetic.

[classicsucks]

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

He shorted and lost.  Now he's rage posting saying we should all stop buying Bitcoin because it might cause a miner somewhere in Timbuktu to profit.  That part of the argument was even dumber.  We aren't "pumping Bitcoin for miners".  Miners don't have an infinite number of coins to dump like it's a Lehman Brothers fire sale.  75% of Bitcoin has already been mined and inflation is going from 8% to 4% with halving.

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

Even though miners are increasingly becoming big monied and increasingly capital intensive, they remain a fairly eclectic group in terms of individual mining, pool mining and business mining farms, yet, sure, they share several commonalities in terms of making investments towards both long and short term profits.  There may be some miners who cash out their bitcoins right away and on an ongoing basis in order to keep their business's profitable, short term and long term.  Also, there are some who hold some portion of their bitcoins based on speculation (which may or may not end up being correct). 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

To put too much emphasis on halvening is just screwy logic because some miners are going to be more efficient than others and they are going to incorporate some amount of speculation and diversification of investment in order to attempt to keep their business profitable, and some miners are going to miscalculate and have to either revamp or get out of the game.  Overall there are too many other factors (and some of them unknown or unknowable based on how seg wit and other developments will play out) that will likely cause demands on bitcoins and upward price pressures that will even allow relatively inefficient miners to stay in the bitcoin mining game longer than otherwise may be predicted, and miners are going to continue to reformulate various strategies in the space in order to attempt to increase their profits, whether that be creative pooling or other crypto space diversifications.

[r0ach]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

LOL, no it does not make sense.  The second you get to the sentence where he claims the price of Bitcoin is going to go to $300 for the halving, anyone with a brain can tell it's a complete bullshit post.  Only an idiot would short the halving (MatTheCat - not once, but twice and lost).  It's some jackass trader stuck in a short squeeze posting jibberish because he thinks people will listen to him.

[classicsucks]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

I think that we have had this conversation before and there is no reason to repeat it.

You suggest that miners have an incentive to keep prices high and therefore they are buying their own coins.  I believe that it does not make sense for them to buy their own coins, and you do, so we differ in our opinions, but nonetheless, you keep pushing this theory, incorporating it into your discussion points as a simplified explanation as if it is some kind of meaningful explanation for what's really going on.  I'll repeat that it just doesn't make sense to me, but we do not need to go on about it because you have made your points and I have made mine.

[classicsucks]

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

I think that we have had this conversation before and there is no reason to repeat it.

You suggest that miners have an incentive to keep prices high and therefore they are buying their own coins.  I believe that it does not make sense for them to buy their own coins, and you do, so we differ in our opinions, but nonetheless, you keep pushing this theory, incorporating it into your discussion points as a simplified explanation as if it is some kind of meaningful explanation for what's really going on.  I'll repeat that it just doesn't make sense to me, but we do not need to go on about it because you have made your points and I have made mine.

Funny, I don't recall posting in this thread to "have a conversation" with you, sir. I was posting some thoughts on this thread's topic, and you pasted in a tangetial reply of yours from another thread where I mentioned the possibility of miners buying their own coins, and you stated that this "didn't make sense to you". I'm not here to convince you of anything, but generally I advocate for critical thought and fact-gathering rather than simply acting on hunches...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks

Back on topic, I believe that other events are moving the bitcoin price more than the coming halving... This Craig Wright business is interesting, as is the collapse of the Classic attack vector, and the downfall of Gav-boy...

[r0ach]

How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...