Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon?

[Mjbmonetarymetals]

Anyone for Tea?

[Crypt_Current]

my chart analysis spreadsheet tells me that at current hashrate, and news that TV star Bob Saget is soon investing in a large amount of coins; BTC is undervalued by at least $15.

Saget is one of my favorite comedians -- I met him twice!  Do you have a link / source for this rumor?

[Gatekeeper]

I think the cup and handle will be true here. There will be pressure at $30 and again at the old high. I feel like we will "reach up" to break the old high by a tiny amount, mainly from the excitement of being able to achieve it, before falling back to the $25 range after a sell off, $20 at worst but then things will settle and we will climb back up and be much stronger in breaking the $30/$32 barriers. Once we clear $32 i really think that it will become the new bottom and a key indicator as to how things are going. I wouldn't be surprised to see us settle in the $35-$40 range within a couple of months with a strong barrier at $32 and $30

[matthewh3]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

The gradient is not as steep on the second curve so if it is correlation we haven't even properly started the bubble yet but I agree with the above post correlation and causation are different things.

[mccorvic]

Posting in another "bad bear with a bad chart" thread.

[chmod755]

Sorry to inform you, that I'm just going to buy some more bitcoins in case there's a major correction so your trading strategy might fail. Thank you for your understanding and good luck with this.

[BlackBison]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times. 

Agreed. See my post here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144586.msg1534317#msg1534317

[ninjaboon]

Excellent summary and I agree totally. I foresee some Bitcoin related startups coming online in 2013 for Asia side and once that happens, the BTC price will even hit USD 100 and beyond.

I'm a long-term bull. I started buying in 2011 and have continued to buy throughout, including this month.
Bitcoin has made great strides in the last year and a half, including:

1) More security (hashrate), and about to get 10x+ more secure due to ASIC deployment.
2) Far more professionalism in the ecosystem in general, and in 3rd party services in particular.
3) Development and understanding of best-practices with respect to how to handle bitcoin, in terms of online wallets, offline wallets, cold storage, etc.
4) Far more merchant adoption (just ask BitPay).
5) Traditional venture capital is now dipping their feet in the water.
6) More professionals and technologists from other industries are now focusing on bitcoin. Observe the bitcoin2013 speaker/panalist list.
7) Services such as SatoshiDice show a use-case that isn't possible without bitcoin, and gambling looks set to become bitcoin's first high-volume general use-case.
8.) Bitcoin acceptance announcements from top sites including Wordpress.com, Reddit.com, and Mega
9) More startups and serious entrepreneurs investing their time, energy, and creativity into bitcoin.
10) Huge improvement in the quality of the mainstream media attention given to bitcoin.
11) Another 18 months of successfully processing transactions without any fundamental protocol failure.

[SaintFlow]

your argument is invalid because it postulates common sense which is neither common nor does sense apply on the internet

[cypherdoc]

my chart analysis spreadsheet tells me that at current hashrate, and news that TV star Bob Saget is soon investing in a large amount of coins; BTC is undervalued by at least $15.

Saget is one of my favorite comedians -- I met him twice!  Do you have a link / source for this rumor?

Yeah I'd like to hear more about this too.

Speaking of celebrities investing in Bitcoin.   Remember the Good Wife episode?   I'd bet 10:1 that Cramer started dabbling in Bitcoin way back then.

As goofy as he can be,  he's not stupid.   His appearance alone was a big bull signal to me at the time.

[humanitee]

Copying this from the wall thread, it belongs here.

THEN: Fast, from less than $5 to the all time high in a month. Whimsical, silly times.



NOW: Slow (comparatively), from around $10 to the current price in 4 months. Solid, like my dick. Green metropolis w/ consistently higher volume.


Hence, your argument == invalid.

[DoomDumas]

Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

Eh, IIRC, you ask with a "please", this sounds to me like you're buying, and dont want to buy too high, so you try to influence some to sell, so you'll be able to buy under 30 $


- Busted

[mccorvic]

Hence, your argument == invalid.

But humanitee! He's a bear with a chart! How could he possibly be wrong! A chart, I say, a CHART!

[RodeoX]

my arbitrary number is better than yours. 

[Vandroiy]

One thing is certain -- without there being plenty of convenient and secure methods to "go short" bitcoin, the longer the exchange rate goes up at this pace the sharper the selloff when one comes.   The total valuation (which some refer to using the misnomer "market cap") of $300+ million exceeds by a wide margin the amount actually needed to support the level of BTC transactions that are seen on the blockchain today.  

I think this point is important. A mega rally on top of a mega rally is unstable. The higher it goes at such speeds, the less stable it is.

On top of that, there are newcomer speculators who jump on high prices with the reasoning "it's going up!!!!". Those add to instability, 'cause they'll need no more reason than "it's going down!!!!" to dump their coins in any situation.



@humanitee:

Comparing to the earlier Bitcoin spike is no decent argument because our current rise is still fast even for a bubble. The 2011 one was an example for a bubble at once-in-a-lifetime speed. Our current rise is not slow and quite a typical speed for bubble danger.

Now I'm not saying I know the future, but using this graph comparison as an argument for stability is wrong.

[RodeoX]

... On top of that, there are newcomer speculators who jump on high prices with the reasoning "it's going up!!!!". Those add to instability, 'cause they'll need no more reason than "it's going down!!!!" to dump their coins in any situation.
...

Fingers crossed! I would love to see a panic sell off. Of course when the price goes back up the forum will be full of broke crybabies.

[DoomDumas]

I wont wait any sort of correction to buy.  I've 500$ that will be availlable within 24h, and I'll buy at market price asap.

Did I mentioned I beleive in BTC @ 100 by the end of 2013 ?

[mccorvic]

... On top of that, there are newcomer speculators who jump on high prices with the reasoning "it's going up!!!!". Those add to instability, 'cause they'll need no more reason than "it's going down!!!!" to dump their coins in any situation.
...

Fingers crossed! I would love to see a panic sell off. Of course when the price goes back up the forum will be full of broke crybabies.

It's already full of broke crybabies. We just call them bears :p

[Risse]

"History repeats itself" or how did that famous saying go...

Anyways, I think you are right, the price has to come down at some point. It's just a gut feeling though, who really knows what happens.

[MEGAMERICAN]

We might see a slight dip or two at the 30 and/or 32 mark because of the pressure of people who bought at those prices but I don't foresee a huge dip because the amount of people who bought at that level is probably quite small. We saw a dip to the $22 level last week when we neared $27 which is the kind of dip we may see coming up.

I just used it as a good buying opportunity and am hoping for another one in the upcoming days/week(s).