Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon?

[Merralea]

Anyone for Tea?
[[images]]

We have a winner.

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[Fuzzy]

We went from $31 to $2 before, another crash like that could happen again, it could be even more drastic.. Will it? I don't know, but pretending that 50% is the floor is foolish.

If you think there aren't 10 times more people waiting for cheap coins than there was last time it crashed, then you're gonna miss one hell of a ride.

[chmod755]

• "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ~George Santayana

• "Those who rely on the past will never escape it" ~Barbara Feldon

• "Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment."~Buddha

[Fuzzy]

• "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ~George Santayana

• "Those who rely on the past will never escape it" ~Barbara Feldon

• "Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment."~Buddha

• "He who smelt it, dealt it."~Little Timmy

[BitCoinsLOL]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

Do you know why it colapsed the 1st time? Can you be basing your theory on that chart alone with no other due dilligence? I hope not son.

[adamstgBit]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

Do you know why it colapsed the 1st time? Can you be basing your theory on that chart alone with no other due dilligence? I hope not son.

do you?

if you say hacks you'd be wrong...

the hacks and BS happened AFTER the crash.

[Spekulatius]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

Do you know why it colapsed the 1st time? Can you be basing your theory on that chart alone with no other due dilligence? I hope not son.

do you?

if you say hacks you'd be wrong...

the hacks and BS happened AFTER the crash.

+1

Idk how many times people will repeat that myth over and over. Just look at the charts people!

[Luno]

Bitcoin has to stay at 32+ for a while, going around a second time to $5-10 will be fatal in public and business perception.

[Bemtje]

You guys and your predictions...... Anything can happen in the world of Bitcoin.

Example: Someone could have insider information, by a shit ton of BTC's, then the next thing you know Wal-Mart releases a PR stating they accept Bitcoin.

[Third Way]

You guys and your predictions...... Anything can happen in the world of Bitcoin.

Example: Someone could have insider information, by a shit ton of BTC's, then the next thing you know Wal-Mart releases a PR stating they accept Bitcoin.

>insider information
Of what? There is no need for insider info on when the next blocks will be mined. We know the difficulty.

[Dabs]

Insider information on big companies that may decide to accept bitcoin.

Actually, it's just a matter of time before Walmart, Amazon, and many other online stores will accept bitcoins as payment. They will most likely get it through one of many bitcoin payment processors so they can get their fiat equivalent currencies in their bank accounts.

Also, it's quite clear that the value of bitcoins will continue to increase in the long term. There may be ups and downs, but it will generally go up all the time until at least a few decades from now.

[Peter Lambert]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.

Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

The last time the price shot up so fast, about Jun '12, the price leveled out for 6 months. Is that what you are trying to say? The price is going to go up until it stops going up, and then it will remain steady until it starts going up again!

[Melbustus]

Do you know why it colapsed the 1st time? Can you be basing your theory on that chart alone with no other due dilligence? I hope not son.

do you?

if you say hacks you'd be wrong...

the hacks and BS happened AFTER the crash.

+1

Idk how many times people will repeat that myth over and over. Just look at the charts people!

Arg - do not imply that the 6month fall from $32 to $2 had nothing to do with hacks and scams. Yes, the fall from $32 to $17 was before the Gox hack. From $17 to $2 was because of an immature and unprofessional ecosystem from which we have made great strides away in the last 18months.

[Luno]

So what's the point of even creating a thread like this?
I mean, the way I see it, there are two outcomes.

a) You're right, and no one really cares much, but I guess you can claim some sort of fame for calling the hand in advance.
b) You're wrong and you end up looking like a troll/bear/ass (add any negative adjective)

So, I see the rewards not being as great and I see the potential of being made fun of....

IMHO

Thats why you wanna hold both BTC and $$ right  now, so you can jump it like any good transsexual in a strange bar.

[Comodore]

if your entire analysis is based on "look what happened last time"...

I did say ".. or very soon."

• "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ~George Santayana
• Plus other factors, like Irrational Exuberance in the community*

*Some of which is very fun and I have participated in.

Why do you think our expectations are irrational? I have rational expectations of bitcoin that really has fundaments to go UP. We are too small market and current demand drives it higher naturaly.

[Richy_T]

Any second, any second... Wait for it... any second... here we... any... any... just about nnnnn.... any second... keep watching... keep watching... Here we ggggg.... any moment, right about right nnnn... it's right on the edge... here it cccc... don't look away... one little... just one... any second... It... is... going... to... happen... five... four... three... two... one and a half... one and a quarter... one and three sixteenths... here it... here it... nearly...

[justusranvier]

Any second, any second... Wait for it... any second... here we... any... any... just about nnnnn.... any second... keep watching... keep watching... Here we ggggg.... any moment, right about right nnnn... it's right on the edge... here it cccc... don't look away... one little... just one... any second... It... is... going... to... happen... five... four... three... two... one and a half... one and a quarter... one and three sixteenths... here it... here it... nearly...

Just need someone to buy up those last 8000 BTC:

[Richy_T]

Any second, any second... Wait for it... any second... here we... any... any... just about nnnnn.... any second... keep watching... keep watching... Here we ggggg.... any moment, right about right nnnn... it's right on the edge... here it cccc... don't look away... one little... just one... any second... It... is... going... to... happen... five... four... three... two... one and a half... one and a quarter... one and three sixteenths... here it... here it... nearly...

Just need someone to buy up those last 8000 BTC:

*Checks bank account* Not this day, methinks.

It was more a poke at the suggestion the rally would be over soon. Though it also works well non-ironically for $30

[adamstgBit]

Just need someone to buy up those last 8000 BTC:

their will be 8000 more at 31

haven't you noticed this whole rally has been buy out one more wall and its going to explode UP, one more wall , one more wall , one more wall ,one more wall.

[molecular]

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times.

Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical.

there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1):

• the jump to $2
• the jump to $4
• the jump to $9

So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to.

I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though.