Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon?

[Richy_T]

I've said it before and I will say it again.

If the price is to rise, who the fuck is buying?

I do believe bitcoin can rise $1k+ but that will NEVER happen when buyers are dependant on exchanges like mtgox.

The explosion begins once aunt jane can buy it with her credit card and bitcoin addresses are as simple as jane@coinbank.btc

No reason it couldn't...

$ dig rich.blahblahblah.com txt

; <<>> DiG 9.4.1 <<>> rich.blahblahblah.com txt
;; global options:  printcmd
;; Got answer:
;; ->>HEADER<<- opcode: QUERY, status: NOERROR, id: 25563
;; flags: qr rd ra; QUERY: 1, ANSWER: 1, AUTHORITY: 5, ADDITIONAL: 17

;; QUESTION SECTION:
;rich.blahblahblah.com.               IN      TXT

;; ANSWER SECTION:
rich.blahblahblah.com.        1800    IN      TXT     "13qnEgPTxJW6mm88dLpnHXZyryN5EXBciq"

Though I think firstbits has a lot of mileage. Perhaps a combination of the two.

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[stereotype]

I've said it before and I will say it again.

If the price is to rise, who the fuck is buying?

I do believe bitcoin can rise $1k+ but that will NEVER happen when buyers are dependant on exchanges like mtgox.

The explosion begins once aunt jane can buy it with her credit card and bitcoin addresses are as simple as jane@coinbank.btc

You are so bang on the money with that last sentence.

[afbitcoins]

The explosion begins once aunt jane can buy it with her credit card and bitcoin addresses are as simple as jane@coinbank.btc

I think there'll be several explosions on the way up before that point, each one orders of magnitude bigger than the last. This one might be fuelled by smart investors who are just starting to see the potential.

[Peter Lambert]

The explosion begins once aunt jane can buy it with her credit card and bitcoin addresses are as simple as jane@coinbank.btc

I seem to remember one of the webwallets I used in the past had a feature where you could send btc to an email address, if that email address did not already have an account with this service then they would send an email to the email with directions on how to open an account and claim the btc sent.

To answer OP: Yes, I think the rally has ended and we are at the plateau stage again. See how the price spiked up about march 7th, and we have been consolidating ever since.

[jwzguy]

I do believe bitcoin can rise $1k+ but that will NEVER happen when buyers are dependant on exchanges like mtgox.

The explosion begins once aunt jane can buy it with her credit card and bitcoin addresses are as simple as jane@coinbank.btc

We're already basically there with Coinbase.

[rpietila]

Yes, and with Silvervault you can also buy BTC directly by just depositing your trading bank account, no ordering process necessary. (In beta for partners only at this stage)

https://www.silverbank.net

[molecular]

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times.

Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical.

there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1):

• the jump to $2
• the jump to $4
• the jump to $9

So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to.

I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though.

This is quite interesting to recall.

[zeroday]

Just note that every significant "crash" in the past has been triggered by major exchange failure.
Now, to achieve similar results you would need to have all the exchanges down/hacked at the same moment.

[molecular]

Just note that every significant "crash" in the past has been triggered by major exchange failure.
Now, to achieve similar results you would need to have all the exchanges down/hacked at the same moment.

I disagree the 2011 crash was caused by exchange failure. It's debatable, but the mtgox hack and week-long shutdown was well after the top was reached.

[Tirapon]

Great thread to dig up. Its always amusing to read posts calling the top, even below the $50 low of the crash.

[zeroday]

By the way, all the previous "crashes" now can be interpreted as huge long lasting bear traps.
Only bears were affected, not hoarders.

[Tirapon]

Yeah I was pretty confident it would end up looking that way. Nice to be proven right. 

[rpietila]

Just note that every significant "crash" in the past has been triggered by major exchange failure.
Now, to achieve similar results you would need to have all the exchanges down/hacked at the same moment.

I disagree the 2011 crash was caused by exchange failure. It's debatable, but the mtgox hack and week-long shutdown was well after the top was reached.

I think that neither was the "first crash of 2013". It was a bubble, it deserved to pop. It popped. Here we are. Soon we have a bubble. Then it will pop. Etc. etc. Circumstances have their role but they do not change the fundamentals nor the technicals.

[jjaquarius]

Just need someone to buy up those last 8000 BTC:

their will be 8000 more at 31

haven't you noticed this whole rally has been buy out one more wall and its going to explode UP, one more wall , one more wall , one more wall ,one more wall.

Thing is: I don't want it to explode. And it's not exploding.... a good thing.

I am from Mastercoin Foundation.
One of our board members mentioned that we would love to have your participation as part of our Smart Contracts Advisory Board.
 
We are building a consortium of crypto-finance firms to ensure that Bitcoin entrepreneurs benefit from a distributed system of trading firms for issuing smart tokens on Bitcoin.  We believe that will be a BIG revenue opportunity for trading firms like CCCC
The role of this advisory board is to provide an opportunity for Bitcoin industry members to influence the direction of the Master Protocol.
 
Perhaps we can have a chat about whether this is something you can participate in?
 
Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.
Thanks
Judith

[porcupine87]

if your entire analysis is based on "look what happened last time" then i think it's you that has no common sense.

that is 90% of all analysis here.

[feverpitch]

I also a bitcoin holder and I’m aware of its instability but I’ll take the risks. The price can rise and fall without any backgrounds and playing could be very tricky and unsafe business.

[gabmen]

Just note that every significant "crash" in the past has been triggered by major exchange failure.
Now, to achieve similar results you would need to have all the exchanges down/hacked at the same moment.

I disagree the 2011 crash was caused by exchange failure. It's debatable, but the mtgox hack and week-long shutdown was well after the top was reached.

I think that neither was the "first crash of 2013". It was a bubble, it deserved to pop. It popped. Here we are. Soon we have a bubble. Then it will pop. Etc. etc. Circumstances have their role but they do not change the fundamentals nor the technicals.

Well the recent "crashes" weren't because of any major exchange failure though. Several fuds along with the natural correction did us in there. And of course this rally would have its own correction that's for sure so i don't think there's any big deal with it. It's going to come.back up anyways

[sakokinak]

As a holder of BTC, I am expecting that the cryptocurrency will be swinging. Down and up - up and down: it will be the picture of the market these days.