Does the next halving really matter that much?

[aranachristianjay]

I think the price of bitcoin will increase when the halving is come and it will go down when the halving is done and all people selling their bitcoin together.

You're correct with that, the rise on the price of the BTC is the people speculation that the halving will have an effect that cause an increase in the price of BTC, that speculation makes them buy more and more thinking that it will rise but their demands is the reason for the rise of BTC price. and for that reason after the halving happened and no visible effect had been seen in the price of BTC they will all be disappointed and sell their BTC thus bringing the price back to normal again or much more lower.

[aranachristianjay]

Last halving time: November 28, 2012 (Price: $12.1) Total 10M coins in circulation
After the halving, prices exploded more than 15 times in just 4 months.

Now: 15M coins in circulation

50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

So what you are trying to say is that BTC price will increase due to scarcity because of the upcoming halving?,

Well for me I can only say that the price for now will rise because of the people speculations that the halving might have an effect to BTC price due to scarcity of the said coin.

But it is just the speculations that makes people buy and buy more BTC thus making it's price higher and it is not the effect of the halving in the end, because even though 25 million of BTC had been in circulation in future there are no BTC that will loss from that circulation and it will continue to be trade even there is no mining anymore, let's keep in mind that even BTC are not consume or loss when use in market but it is only traded.

Good point about speculation. But still supply and demand is the king. And we all know supply is very limited to BTC. And when the scarcity phase enters (I think it will happen in next few years), prices on any currency, commodity starts to behave parabolic rise. But still I think military backed paper currency issuers won't allow this to happen. But I don't really know how will they do this? Any idea?

Actually I don't have the idea at the time regarding on their plan, but as what I observed if the 25 million had been in circulation the price will still be stable as long as the large bag holders out there didn't sell that much at lower price or higher price, when that time comes they have the control over the BTC prices.

And actually we can't compare BTC to commodities since commodities are used and loss thus making it's price higher when there is less to produced that can't match the supplies needed for the demands that we can say that it is the scarcity phase of the said commodities happened.

But i think bitcoin can be could also as comodity as you can see there men bitcoin is base on supply and demands just what like for comodity and the bigger the market with it the more its good and the more people hoard the more price higher just what like happen to products but in the case of bitcoin it is good, because we can earn more if price really high

Yes BTC and commodities have the same thing when it comes to trading but  commodities have a stocks or supply that had been monitored, like for instance an oil, if the oil stocks are low the price will go up because there we're a lot of demands for buy but there are a limited of sellers, which the sellers make the price high as it is in demand that is the said  scarcity of oil, but when it comes to BTC, it doesn't have a stock that are consumed or loss after trading, after trading it is still in the network running in the block chain, not compared to the products and commodities which are used and consumed.

[Mumbeeptind1963]

Okay, will the next halving really matter? All i see is people talking about it and waiting to happen, "the price will rise", "to the moon". But what will really happen after the halving?

Right now, there are about 15 million Bitcoins "alive". The Bitcoin cap is 21 millions. So it is true, the block reward will get sliced to half, but there will be only 6 million Bitcoins left to mine. And because of this, i dont think the price will rise by that much.

My predictions would be:
1. Everyone waiting for the price increase after halving
2. Price increase doesnt happen
3. PANIC
4. ...




So this is just my opinion. Please post yours in the replys. What do you expect after halving and why?

Many will think that bitcoin will rise but for me is it possible and there is a possible that the price will not rise. I only know is what if the newbie or other buyer of bitcoin didnt buy in that price? The only reason why it rise it is because many people want to buy it and the demand will cause of price increase . theres a possible that the price of it will down becasue many newbie will panic.

[AlgoSwan]

Yes BTC and commodities have the same thing when it comes to trading but  commodities have a stocks or supply that had been monitored, like for instance an oil, if the oil stocks are low the price will go up because there we're a lot of demands for buy but there are a limited of sellers, which the sellers make the price high as it is in demand that is the said  scarcity of oil, but when it comes to BTC, it doesn't have a stock that are consumed or loss after trading, after trading it is still in the network running in the block chain, not compared to the products and commodities which are used and consumed.

Totally agree on commodities and BTC on very different supply and demand dynamics. But still we may use supply and demand information for BTC to decide if its price is cheap or expensive. One important aspect of this supply side: it is limited to 21 million units. And we have a total population of more than 8 billion people. And we are talking about a currency can be used in almost every transactions this 8 billion (and it is increasing every second) people are using. So regardless of halving speculation on BTC prices, the price of BTC can go only upside just the above reason. Of course BTC has its own weakness such as there is no military support and we all know when military fails to support a currency this currency should easily fail (Hint: Iraq dinar, Kuwait dinar in 1992, etc.) and can be removed from the world scene.

[DuckKeeper]

Well I'm pretty much sure that it's going to matter THAT much.
As you can see, the value has quite increased by $50 in over two days and it was quite a fuzz already. What more on the halving? This is going to be a fun ride.

I matters to some people and some people do not even care that much. People that want to buy coins again this is really important because they then can buy more coins for a cheaper price.

Some people cannot wait until the halving is happening because they want to buy some coins as soon as possible. So maybe for them it matters much because the price then gets cheaper. 

[pearl11]

Yes of course, when halving started bitcoin rises up, and we do not know when it will stop.. But there are consequences when halving is takes its place..  But we will see if halving has really big impact to bitcoin..

[SilverPunk]

Yes ,halving is a  big deal for the users of bitcoin some of them will buy this halving to hold and wait again for the next halving period .it also matters online popularity of bitcoins that more people will be interested and do bitcoins.

[Altynbekova]

Yes I think it matter because it will let people believe in it and also the fact is that it will attract a lot of people.
There will be a lot more publicity.

[socks435]

Well either the price is increase or not they are still panic to sell just like this price today many people right now are satisfied with this price thats why i think the price decreases because many people right now are panic to sell because of price increase ..

[GamingBro]

It's matter for many spheres of bitcoin workers, single miners are not so happy, traders and sellers are happy cause they can get extra money from selling right now.

[shane]

it is true, everyone is waiting for halving, then the price increases before halving, then why after halving the price increase? I think it will be a dump. and perhaps there will be panic also to sell when it

[amacar2]

I think the current pump in price is more due to the halving hype but this also involves some great buy support as mostly after halving bitcoin price can go up due to limited supply.

[Kprawn]

I do not agree with you... I see a slight increase in the price under normal conditions {no other external factors influencing the price} or a massive increase under extraordinary circumstances, if

somethings happens, with the halving {Major country excepts Bitcoin or huge capital flight out of Chine etc etc. } Then we will reach a price ceiling, where people will want to start selling, because

the price are just to attractive not to sell... or they might just doubled or tripled their initial investment... Once these people start selling, the supply will increase and the price will go down again. 

[Corenin]

it is true, everyone is waiting for halving, then the price increases before halving, then why after halving the price increase? I think it will be a dump. and perhaps there will be panic also to sell when it

Yes I think price will decrease after the halving, as many people will sell their coins at the time of halving when they see higher price and it may result in decline in price.

[ravens]

I expect the price to increase for a little bit because not that many bitcoins will not be able to be mined.

[aranachristianjay]

I expect the price to increase for a little bit because not that many bitcoins will not be able to be mined.

Yeah price increased but halving is not the actual reason of its increase, it is the speculation of the people that ting that BTC price will rise when halving comes thus making them buy for that thinking that causes the rise for now, and additionally you can add up to the rise the falling market of china, Halving is not yet happened and still on its way, so we might see the effect of it when it comes whether it will rise or fall but as what I think nothing will happen and buyers of BTC will be disappointed at the end.

[romero121]

it is true, everyone is waiting for halving, then the price increases before halving, then why after halving the price increase? I think it will be a dump. and perhaps there will be panic also to sell when it

Yes I think price will decrease after the halving, as many people will sell their coins at the time of halving when they see higher price and it may result in decline in price.

Even if there is not much of bitcoin selling too the price decreases gradually. This is just to give a perfect meaning for the term halving. On halving it touches peak and settles at a value little low or high.

[Junko]

I imagine that for anyone who mines bitcoin that the halving(s) matter very much.

[Superways]

Yeah, the halving matter for the good value of bitcoin, it is because of halving a large number of people adopted bitcoin and those people who do not have knowledge about bitcoin and after hearing about bitcoin and its halving they started to learn about bitcoin and adopted it.
And you said that with halving the price will increase, I will say that a few months ago the price was at about $370 and now it is around $550 , is not that an increased price? the same will be continued and the price will increase in this way and everyone will be benefited as they are benefited now.

[jaysabi]

Okay, will the next halving really matter? All i see is people talking about it and waiting to happen, "the price will rise", "to the moon". But what will really happen after the halving?

Right now, there are about 15 million Bitcoins "alive". The Bitcoin cap is 21 millions. So it is true, the block reward will get sliced to half, but there will be only 6 million Bitcoins left to mine. And because of this, i dont think the price will rise by that much.

My predictions would be:
1. Everyone waiting for the price increase after halving
2. Price increase doesnt happen
3. PANIC
4. ...




So this is just my opinion. Please post yours in the replys. What do you expect after halving and why?

The price is less related to how many bitcoins are "alive" but is directly related to how many bitcoins are being traded. The thesis on the pumpers is that miners sell their coins immediately to fund the cost of mining. If mining income is halved, that decreases the amount of coins newly coming on to the market to trade, and less supply leads to higher price. I'm not agreeing with that argument, I'm just stating it, as it's more nuanced than you allowed for.