Is Satoshi Dead?

[benjamindees]

50 million dollars is a decent chunk of change for almost any software developer or economist.  It's the kind of stash that, even if you are in Bitcoin for the long haul, the temptation to cash out just 2% of it and buy a yacht or an island or something is just too great.  Not doing so means that you are either extremely wealthy already, or some kind of supervillain who intends to take over the world once Bitcoin is in more widespread use.  I don't think either description fits.  I'm thinking that, by now, there are only two options as to why this hasn't happened:

1) Satoshi's coins are lost

2) Satoshi's coins are in the hands of some kind of corporate entity

Either of these scenarios has implications for the future of Bitcoin.

[Piper67]

50 million dollars is a decent chunk of change for almost any software developer or economist.  It's the kind of stash that, even if you are in Bitcoin for the long haul, the temptation to cash out just 2% of it and buy a yacht or an island or something is just too great.  Not doing so means that you are either extremely wealthy already, or some kind of supervillain who intends to take over the world once Bitcoin is in more widespread use.  I don't think either description fits.  I'm thinking that, by now, there are only two options as to why this hasn't happened:

1) Satoshi's coins are lost

2) Satoshi's coins are in the hands of some kind of corporate entity

Either of these scenarios has implications for the future of Bitcoin.

You're assuming Satoshi was just one person... that's not necessarily the case.

[Lethn]

50 million dollars is a decent chunk of change for almost any software developer or economist.  It's the kind of stash that, even if you are in Bitcoin for the long haul, the temptation to cash out just 2% of it and buy a yacht or an island or something is just too great.  Not doing so means that you are either extremely wealthy already, or some kind of supervillain who intends to take over the world once Bitcoin is in more widespread use.  I don't think either description fits.  I'm thinking that, by now, there are only two options as to why this hasn't happened:

1) Satoshi's coins are lost

2) Satoshi's coins are in the hands of some kind of corporate entity

Either of these scenarios has implications for the future of Bitcoin.

You're assuming Satoshi was just one person human... that's not necessarily the case.

fixed that lol

Honestly, if whoever this Satoshi person was wanted to do anything nefarious or silly, why would they make it open source and available for everyone to look at? The logic some people use for this kind of thing doesn't make sense.

[SgtSpike]

50 million dollars is a decent chunk of change for almost any software developer or economist.  It's the kind of stash that, even if you are in Bitcoin for the long haul, the temptation to cash out just 2% of it and buy a yacht or an island or something is just too great.  Not doing so means that you are either extremely wealthy already, or some kind of supervillain who intends to take over the world once Bitcoin is in more widespread use.  I don't think either description fits.  I'm thinking that, by now, there are only two options as to why this hasn't happened:

1) Satoshi's coins are lost

2) Satoshi's coins are in the hands of some kind of corporate entity

Either of these scenarios has implications for the future of Bitcoin.

And how, exactly, do you know that Satoshi hasn't cached out 2% of his coins?

[xavier]

There is no way that those coins are lost. Someone smart enough to (1) create bitcoin and (2) leave the community to remain anonymous and just sit on the 5M (max) coins that they had created would definitely not loose such a huge number of coins.

Clearly 'Satoshi' is very much in touch with bitcoin and is tracking these forums regularly to work out a good time to release the coins and cash out. The problem for Satoshi is if they touch those coins, it's going to cause a huge amount of interest. Any cashing out would cause chaos. It doesnt matter if he only liquidated a small proportion - it would show in the blockchain that he/they is active and any action by itself that hinted a liquidation of such a large number of coins would be sure to cause a huge sell-off and problems for bitcoin, hence devaluing Satoshi's large holding. Maybe they should have thought about that problem when they designed the blockchain

The identity of Satoshi is no secret (a simply Google search and some reading will reveal the persons who are Satoshi - it has already been uncovered by a journalist) - and it is not just a single person.

[allthingsluxury]

I highly doubt that he would dump all of his coins on the market at once and crash the bitcoin market. I have faith that he understands economics 101.

[RodeoX]

Yeah, I'm fine. 

[wtfvanity]

There is no way that those coins are lost. Someone smart enough to (1) create bitcoin and (2) leave the community to remain anonymous and just sit on the 5M (max) coins that they had created would definitely not loose such a huge number of coins.

Absolutely. Satoshi has been quoted as saying that there is absolutely NO reason to ever destroy a private key or wallet even if they contain no balance. Those coins are not lost.

Honestly, if whoever this Satoshi person was wanted to do anything nefarious or silly, why would they make it open source and available for everyone to look at? The logic some people use for this kind of thing doesn't make sense.

Open source? There are lots of open source projects. That really has nothing to do with anything. His coins are there regardless if it is open source or closed. Open source allowed Satoshi to disappear, and take along his coins. Sure, it's only $250 Million USD now. What will it be in a couple of years? If Satoshi was already financially secure... why not way a few years before grabbing some change? He didn't cash out last time it was over $30. What makes this time any different?

It's easy to get an idea of how many coins he had at the beginning. Who's to say that he doesn't have other coins that he accumulated besides those that were mined if he needed money?

[knightmb]

I didn't know this topic still came up, are people still looking for him? He is not dead, but he does like his privacy. 

[xisnotx]

Out of the two options given, the second one seems more probable.
Why wouldn't he do so?

If I were him, I'd cash out right now and crash the market.

I guess that's why I'm not him. I would have cashed out at dollar parity.

[drawingthesun]

I didn't know this topic still came up, are people still looking for him? He is not dead, but he does like his privacy. 

Are you still working on Timekoin?

[knightmb]

Back in 2009 when Satoshi still did personal e-mails to members, it was pretty easy with a tracking pixel to pinpoint where he was at the time even though he used a foreign e-mail server. His Mac was using a plain vanilla e-mail client that would load the pixels from the same place for every message he read from me, so if the search is where was he at the time years ago, I can shed some light on that.

The question though is he dead, well he might be or he might not be? If he wanted the world to know, it was be easy enough for me to verify since he has the only private e-mail address that we exchanged messages with, so he could just send a "hey I am still alive" message.

My guess is that he is either still involved, just under a different name to avoid fans from overwhelming him or just has changed his lifestyle completely and left the world of digital currency behind. Also, he might be dead, in which case it is sad that no one will ever know unless family steps forward.

[bg002h]

There only like 5 million bucks on MtGox.

[Nick]

Where do you guys get the idea that Satoshi owns so and so many bitcoins? I always thought that the often quoted number of "one million Bitcoins" seems off, but now you're pulling "5 million" out of your asses. What the hell!

Stop spreading FUD!

[mintymark]

Dont forget if you have just invented probably the most significant thing since the internet, you are hardly going to destroy youu legacy by "Crashing" bitcoin even if you could.

And if he wanted to I am sure he could earn more money than you or I could imagine by quietly whispering, yeah and Bitcoin was one of my earlier projects...

You think he would need ever to withdraw those Bitcoins? I doubt it.  

Dead? Possible, of course, but super intelligent people have a habit of surviving, and I'd put him in this class.

You just wait until he releases the next thing he's working on. I doubt he has been Idle.

[TraderTimm]

Satoshi is a time-traveler who came from a dystopian future where centrally-managed currencies have caused economic havok and chaos. Strapping himself in his machine, he pushed a button and popped up on the outskirts of a major city. Making his way to the nearest hackspace, he began his coding odyssey.

When the whitepaper was complete, along with the code for the first client running along on his personal network, he sent the results out into the greater internet for it to germinate into the vibrant movement that it is today.

Looking down at his monitor, he only had a few seconds to consider what he had accomplished, before his upstream timeline was wiped out by the tsunami of change that bitcoin will be.

A well worn coin dropped to the floor from thin air, rolling to rest in the cracks of the dingy linoleum. The world had been saved, but would never know the man that started it all.

The inscription - "Strength in Numbers"...

[kangasbros]

Honestly, if whoever this Satoshi person was wanted to do anything nefarious or silly, why would they make it open source and available for everyone to look at? The logic some people use for this kind of thing doesn't make sense.

Do you honestly think that bitcoin would have gained traction while being closed source?

[Elwar]

The actual Satoshi has not yet even been born. And the time machine inventor is just a glimmer in his mother's eye.

[BTC Books]

I fall in the camp that believes Satoshi is still alive, and is a regular on the forum:  or at least one of the group collectively known as Satoshi, if he's more than one person.

Given his history, his UID would have to be the most unlikely person anyone could conceive of.

My vote goes to Atlas.

[Piper67]

The actual Satoshi has not yet even been born. And the time machine inventor is just a glimmer in his mother's eye.

What do we want? TIME TRAVEL!
When do we want it? IT'S IRRELEVANT!