Beware of so-called "anonymous" coins (XMR, SDC, AEON and DASH)

[bbc.reporter]

If you believe that growth of any coin beside bitcoin can be called organic then you are a dreamer.

Bitcoin still does not have the "organic growth" we speak of. That is why it is currently impossible to do TA on BTC.

It's just that other currencies could be manipulated more easily. 

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis? The reason why some people use technical analysis is because they do not believe in fundamental analysis where "organic growth" is supposed to belong. In technical analysis the traders make money from the inefficiencies of the market and the irrationality of the newbies which is a lot in cryptocoins.

[DarkLurker]

There is currently just to much hype around these coins for me to feel comfortable investing much money in them.  These other "anonymous coins" like shadow has a broken coding system that doesn't even work.  The price of Monero as of right now is all just speculation.  Something frightening about Moreno is about how this coin does not scale.

There is no need to spread lies

[smoothie]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.   

As long as people continue being stupid and throwing their money at random stuff in the hopes they will magically get rich, manipulation, scams, and failed projects will continue to grow in number.

That's the point of the thread. We can't prevent them, but we can reduce them. Yes, you can say that there are a lot of "stupid" (I'd like to call them naive) people who would most likely "buy the news", but I don't think that's the main problem. Imho the main problem is people being greedy.

People being greedy is perhaps a problem, but a problem that doesn't have an absolute solution over the masses. Not sure what is the point of this thread once again as has been previously been asked.

People are responsible for their own actions. If they don't do their research into what they are investing into then that is no one's problem but theirs.

I don't believe that monero has branded itself as being an "anonymous" coin. At least not to my knowledge.

[dinofelis]

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?

My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis.   I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders.  That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter).  But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.

[smoothie]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

This statement is not clear to me ^

What do people need to be controlled from exactly?

I think the idea of putting the word "people" in the context with the word "controlled" in such a way implying they should have some sort of oversight does not ever mix. You warning people not to fall into the current hype is not a form of control. So I am confused what type of control you imply.

[smoothie]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

[ranlo]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

I side with him, but not because of anonymity. It's more because cryptos are still way before their time. People still have issues with things like PayPal, which is a LOT less complicated than trying to use a crypto wallet. Now you have to secure the wallet, keep it backed up, etc. It's a complicated process for 99% of the people out there. This will absolutely hinder adoption.

[smoothie]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

I side with him, but not because of anonymity. It's more because cryptos are still way before their time. People still have issues with things like PayPal, which is a LOT less complicated than trying to use a crypto wallet. Now you have to secure the wallet, keep it backed up, etc. It's a complicated process for 99% of the people out there. This will absolutely hinder adoption.

Agreed it is complicated.

And that will limit how many people utilize cryptos to the extent that some of us do here.

That part of adoption is years away. That's not the focus right now.

[bbc.reporter]

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?

My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis.   I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders.  That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter).  But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.

No my friend. Technical Analysis works because there are many clueless newbies out there trading. It make the market inefficient and irrational. That is why we see people dumping on the news because the they believe this is the right way to trade. When they see that the price keeps going up after they dump they panic once again and buy up in the market again propelling the market up. Emotions drive the market and that is what you want. You do not want your competitors to become emotionless Technical Analysis drones who will not budge and trade efficiently. That will make trading not as profitable.

[ranlo]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

I side with him, but not because of anonymity. It's more because cryptos are still way before their time. People still have issues with things like PayPal, which is a LOT less complicated than trying to use a crypto wallet. Now you have to secure the wallet, keep it backed up, etc. It's a complicated process for 99% of the people out there. This will absolutely hinder adoption.

Agreed it is complicated.

And that will limit how many people utilize cryptos to the extent that some of us do here.

That part of adoption is years away. That's not the focus right now.

On a purely anonymous PoV, I do think that it's an important thing. And those who are against it should realize that cash, which has been used for illegal things ever since it was created hundreds of years ago, is also anonymous. But governments haven't made cash illegal.

[dinofelis]

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?

My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis.   I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders.  That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter).  But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.

No my friend. Technical Analysis works because there are many clueless newbies out there trading.

Technical analysis is then just "doing the same as newbies, but 5 minutes earlier". 
I still stand by my "technical analysis" of technical analysis: it is a belief system, in the same way as a monetary token itself is a belief system: you believe the results of technical analysis because you believe that other traders believe it too.  So if TA tells you "price is going to go up", then you buy, because you believe (probably correctly) that other traders also doing THE SAME technical analysis see also "price is going to go up", and ALSO buy, which, holy miracle, makes the price actually go up as all of you buy.  In the same way, as TA tells you "price is going to fall", then you quickly sell, because you believe (probably correctly) that other traders doing the SAME TA will also see the message "price is going to fall" and hence are also going to sell, which, holy miracle, will make the price fall.

So in theory, if all of you traders were to have the same pseudo-random number generator with the same seed that would indicate in a random way (but the same way because same seed) "price is going up" or "price is going down", then this WILL indeed be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Now, concerning newbies that DO NOT have this seed, they will never KNOW when there will be a concerted "buy" or "sell" motive, and so they will, half of the time, buy when TA tells you to sell, and sell, when TA tells you to buy.  Because these newbies are excluded from the knowledge of TA, they will LOSE BIG, while a majority of whale traders following the same TA (or the same PRNG with the same seed) will always act in unison and reap in the noise of the newbies.  The newbies are also those "stabilizing" the price somewhat before the concerted actions of the TA traders and hence giving time to the TA traders to execute their selling (to newbies) and their buying (from newbies).

THIS is why TA works: because it is the concerted correlation message between "old boys of the market" pumping money out of newbies who have not this correlation signal.

[dinofelis]

On a purely anonymous PoV, I do think that it's an important thing. And those who are against it should realize that cash, which has been used for illegal things ever since it was created hundreds of years ago, is also anonymous. But governments haven't made cash illegal.

They are in the process of doing so.  For instance, in France it is forbidden to buy anything above 3000 Euro with cash, and they are going to restrict that to 1000 Euro in the future.

[smoothie]

To the OP: *if* the main usage/goal/... of a crypto currency is to be a better's token between gamblers (eh, sorry, "investors" and "speculators") trying to smart out each other and strip off (fiat) money from "the other gambler" in this big zero-sum game, then honestly, "anonymity", "smart contracts", and even the existence of a block chain and code doesn't matter.  All what crypto has become is nothing else but casino tokens.   Unfortunately, my impression is that this *is* what makes 95% of the price of crypto, bitcoin included.

So I wouldn't know what it means "to be adopted by the masses".  Does it mean that Joe is now also invited to play in that token casino ?  Is that what we call "adoption", and is the OP warning and suggesting that we should "protect" ordinary Joe from playing the household money in the crypto token casino, because "whales" are smarter casino players ?  Buying tokens to hope to see them rise, and dumping them on a greater fool ?  Is that "crypto adoption" ?

Does "adoption" mean that there is this big reservoir of ordinary Joes that are still unexploited as bigger fools to get ripped off by the "early adopters", the "miners", the "devs" and (mainly) the exchanges, which are the true outlets of value in this zero-sum machine ?

Ordinary Joe is not buying Euros and then dumping them for dollars or yen.  Some do, but that's a very small minority of people, and it is not the people that buy and sell fiat to hope to see it rise or fall that makes the "adoption of fiat".  Adoption of fiat doesn't come from the fact that people buy and sell fiat on FX exchanges.  It means that they use it, to earn it and spend it.  Not that they are gambling on it.

I would suggest to ordinary Joe (and in fact to just anybody) to stay out of this token casino.  It is ripping one another off, without ANY value creation (except for making the casino holders - the centralized exchanges - rich).

However, if by "adoption" one means USING crypto to do what one is doing now with more classical means: buying stuff, earning wages, doing business, transferring wealth, and yes, why not one day, signing agreements ("smart contracts"), NOT for the sake of crypto itself and speculation on its price, but to really use it, then yes, THAT is true adoption, and then, anonymity is an absolute MUST, because the open ledger of bitcoin is a *nightmare* for everybody looking for a minimum of privacy, or more, as a defensive weapon against the criminal syndicate that is the state.

By the time that people would use *bitcoin* to buy a coffee at Star Bucks (they never will en masse because bitcoin cannot handle that on chain), one should hope that there is something like monero or even dash or another anonymous coin where you can hide all the details of your earnings and spendings.  But we are VERY REMOTE from that day.  

In the mean time, the very, very tiny real adoption that crypto has, is probably there were there's a genuine need to hide from the prying eyes of the criminal syndicate which is the state, and where one wants to live freely and exchange freely: dark markets. Even if this only concerns a very small part of the market, there is at least a real use case for crypto.  It is the only genuine adoption of crypto I know of, apart from a few online services (which are MY only use of crypto).

The reality of a block chain, and the reality of the cryptographic aspects of hiding history, only matter if one uses crypto.  When it are betting tokens, the technicality of the coin has no importance: they are mainly abstract IOU on exchanges' websites.  And if one uses crypto, the actual price of a coin doesn't really matter too much  (it shouldn't change too much between earning and spending of course).

I would have preferred by far a small but real "adoption" USING crypto, even by a very small minority of people, with a modest market cap sustaining that real usage, rather than this big token casino that attracts institutional players, lawmakers and all that and kills the freedom of crypto even before it even took off.

If the "anon coin" rise is due to token casino stuff, it will attract lawmaker's troubles before it even got used for real, simply because their equivalent abstract betting IOU on centralized exchanges are hyped by gamblers.

By adoption I always mean "average" Joe using it. Such pumps and dumps are not helping, because of the volatility. And why do you think that anonymity is a must? If the anon market becomes big enough, all the authorities need is to wave some badges and documents and screw it. They are not even obliged to say anything, except that is a matter of national security. How the americans ripped off Kim Dotcom for example? The guy even hasn't been in the USA.

We can reach certain privacy even with Bitcoin. There are a lot of people who has amounts of money for which even their closest friends are not aware of. How often do you tell to people how much you worth? You can even fool the banks if you use different accounts, so there is your privacy. History shows that a lot of smart people who knows how to protect themselves were caught. Why do you think yours/mine case would be different? Maybe in a later future part of the market could be anonymous, but currently its too tiny to begin such "wars". You don't go to a war with handful of people. And the situation can be compared with war, because once the authorities feels threatened, they are starting to use "techniques" which even Snowden could be scared to explain.

Bottom line. Currently we can somehow compare (though its not very accurate) cryptocurrencies with FX, but the average Joe does not trade. We should forgot for a moment about the gimmicks and focus on what really matters - to prove that Bitcoin (and others) are money, and that they can be used.

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

No, I'm not flawed, but looks like you are. I have asked a simple question:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?

Because 99.7% of the current (shown) volume (~$65Mn)of XMR is on Poloniex and Bittrex. Se we have few scenarios:

1. People are buying Monero, because they have seen its usage on the DN markets (i.e. they actually saw it was heavily used).
2. People are "buying the news" of DN acceptance.
3. Number 2 + speculation.

Which one is it?  

You obviously have a difficult time admitting you are wrong.

Purely = 100%

The fact that people are accepting it for payment makes it not 100%.

The fact that I accept it for my physical coins also shows that it isn't used only for purely 100% speculation.

Sorry buddy you are wrong.

[spartak_t]

@smoothie

Quoting me 101 times would not prove you're the right one here. I'm not attacking your beloved Monero.

About the TA,

A true TA is impossible to be made on Bitcoin, because the market is too volatile. You need to research some specific patterns, which does not apply on Bitcoin. BTC for instance have some average price (seen on Coinmarketcap for example) , but it has big price difference on different exchanges. See what I mean:

BTC-E           BTC/USD      $602.10   
Bitfinex   BTC/USD      $607.70   
BitMEX   BTC/USD      $600.50   
OkCoin Intl.   BTC/USD      $604.28   
Bitstamp   BTC/USD      $599.62   

This would never happen with EURO/USD or USD/GOLD, or whatever. The market needs to be bigger.

[btcxyzzz]

Don't get too excited, because Monero is too young to be compared with Bitcoin. But let me ask you some questions:

Younger and better. Contrary to Bitcoin, Monero solved fungibility, scalability and centralization problems.

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?
Currently 99.7% of Monero volume is on Poloniex and Bittrex. What happens if the authorities tell them to halt all XMR tradings and delist the coin?

Then there wouldn't be a place to sell your portion, so the price stays the same . Imagine the effect in media: state is openly admitting Monero is the problem because they can't control it, it's fascism in praxis. Won't go easy with that, idea of anonymous money is there to live.

[spartak_t]

Monero solved centralization problems.

idea of anonymous money is there to live.

And it will, but not to a degree which many of you Monero lovers are dreaming of.

[smoothie]

@smoothie

Quoting me 101 times would not prove you're the right one here. I'm not attacking your beloved Monero.

Just because you say something, doesn't make it true. You have yet to refute my previous post.

But that's okay, you aren't the first to do such a thing.  

Also I never accused you of "attacking" monero. Please stop with attempting to construct a deflective strawman argument there to divert attention away from your clearly flawed statement.

[spartak_t]

I did said something and it was proved to be true. I created a thread, which should serve like "trading point of view" and we all saw what happened.

But I can tell you what are your attempts. I mentioned Monero in the thread and all of the sudden some of you become so defensive. It always happens when you say something about Monero or DASH. You all scream "power to the people", but you are all hiding, because of your "privacy". Step up and do something with your name, then we can have a discussion.

[generalizethis]

I did said something and it was proved to be true. I created a thread, which should serve like "trading point of view" and we all saw what happened.

But I can tell you what are your attempts. I mentioned Monero in the thread and all of the sudden some of you become so defensive. It always happens when you say something about Monero or DASH. You all scream "power to the people", but you are all hiding, because of your "privacy". Step up and do something with your name, then we can have a discussion.

Actually, ideas should have merit, and being helped up or held down by a name, goes to the old world system.

[smoothie]

I did said something and it was proved to be true. I created a thread, which should serve like "trading point of view" and we all saw what happened.

But I can tell you what are your attempts. I mentioned Monero in the thread and all of the sudden some of you become so defensive. It always happens when you say something about Monero or DASH. You all scream "power to the people", but you are all hiding, because of your "privacy". Step up and do something with your name, then we can have a discussion.

You have still not refuted my response.

Once again just because you "said" something doesn't make it true. Creating a thread doesn't automatically make your claim infallible.

Pointing out a fallacy in your statements (that you are unable to acknowledge) is not being defensive. It is actually calling you out on your claims and asking for this "proof" you claim to have made which you have yet to either link me to that refutes my response or you repeat it here.

The more you deflect the more it appears you have an agenda. I actually wanted to know if you could refute my statement which you then decided not to quote in your response....conveniently.

Once again, projecting a mind-set on myself or others by presuming what we are thinking (i.e. "getting defensive") makes you look very foolish. You can just ask me what my motivations are and I will tell them to you, but you have yet to do that either.