Beware of so-called "anonymous" coins (XMR, SDC, AEON and DASH)

[spartak_t]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  







Dash on the other hand is in decline (imho, it could not be called "price correction", because these dumps followed the Monero news).




I'm not sure who is going to "win" the "war" between anonymous digital currencies, but you should think twice before deciding to invest in some of them.
P.S. Personally I don't really care about any of these coins (i.e. if they succeed or FAIL).

Cheers,
Spartak

[1714182035]

1714182035

[kiklo]

It is Monero so it is not speculation that drives it , but Manipulation.  



 

[dadon]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  







Dash on the other hand is in decline (imho, it could not be called "price correction", because these dumps followed the Monero news).




I'm not sure who is going to "win" the "war" between anonymous digital currencies, but you should think twice before deciding to invest in some of them.
P.S. Personally I don't really care about any of these coins (i.e. if they succeed or FAIL).

Cheers,
Spartak

Thanks for YOUR concern, For OUR money..that's sweet

[spartak_t]

snip

Thanks for YOUR concern, For OUR money..that's sweet

And about what should I thank YOU for? For creating 5 threads about SDC in under an hour? Looks like it is making YOU smarter than me.

[ranlo]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.   

I'm lost as to what the point of this thread is. Anyone who buys in has either a) done their due diligence and already knows what they're getting into; or b) shouldn't be buying into it anyways and if it's not one of these coins that they lose with, it'll just be another. As long as people continue being stupid and throwing their money at random stuff in the hopes they will magically get rich, manipulation, scams, and failed projects will continue to grow in number.

[spartak_t]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.   

As long as people continue being stupid and throwing their money at random stuff in the hopes they will magically get rich, manipulation, scams, and failed projects will continue to grow in number.

That's the point of the thread. We can't prevent them, but we can reduce them. Yes, you can say that there are a lot of "stupid" (I'd like to call them naive) people who would most likely "buy the news", but I don't think that's the main problem. Imho the main problem is people being greedy.

[generalizethis]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  

As long as people continue being stupid and throwing their money at random stuff in the hopes they will magically get rich, manipulation, scams, and failed projects will continue to grow in number.

That's the point of the thread. We can't prevent them, but we can reduce them. Yes, you can say that there are a lot of "stupid" (I'd like to call them naive) people who would most likely "buy the news", but I don't think that's the main problem. Imho the main problem is people being greedy.

The main problem is people acting on ignorance--and that includes not buying too. Throwing a general fear blanket on all anonymous coins misses that some of them are based on good crypto--namely XMR and AEON, and that Evan's coin uses a terrible trust scheme and the SDC was broken by a Monero cryptographer. If the OP has something against privacy as a whole, he should admit it, so others can perform due diligence on his opinion. I do remember that you had some interesting opinions on privacy and a desire to remove it from the cc world IIRC.

[spartak_t]

The main problem is people acting on ignorance--and that includes not buying too.

Agreed. Can't argue with that. But you should also agree that we are currently on the "anonymous trains" wave and some people definitely will get burned.

If the OP has something against privacy as a whole, he should admit it, so others can perform due diligence on his opinion. I do remember that you had some interesting opinions on privacy and a desire to remove it from the cc world IIRC.

I've never said that I am against the privacy, but I do think it will not survive "the race". Monero currently has some success, but I'm still not sure if it is because the darknet markets, or it is just a speculation. Maybe it will find its usage (i.e. better adoption, which can justify the current price) in future, but imho it would not be that big as many people are expecting.

People should perform due diligence on these coins, not on me, because I am 101% sure that some of them will FAIL.

[generalizethis]

The main problem is people acting on ignorance--and that includes not buying too.

Agreed. Can't argue with that. But you should also agree that we are currently on the "anonymous trains" wave and some people definitely will get burned.

If the OP has something against privacy as a whole, he should admit it, so others can perform due diligence on his opinion. I do remember that you had some interesting opinions on privacy and a desire to remove it from the cc world IIRC.

I've never said that I am against the privacy, but I do think it will not survive "the race". Monero currently has some success, but I'm still not sure if it is because the darknet markets, or it is just a speculation. Maybe it will find its usage (i.e. better adoption, which can justify the current price) in future, but imho it would not be that big as many people are expecting.

People should perform due diligence on these coins, not on me, because I am 101% sure that some of them will FAIL.

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

[spartak_t]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

[DaveyJones]

The main problem is people acting on ignorance--and that includes not buying too.

Agreed. Can't argue with that. But you should also agree that we are currently on the "anonymous trains" wave and some people definitely will get burned.

If the OP has something against privacy as a whole, he should admit it, so others can perform due diligence on his opinion. I do remember that you had some interesting opinions on privacy and a desire to remove it from the cc world IIRC.

I've never said that I am against the privacy, but I do think it will not survive "the race". Monero currently has some success, but I'm still not sure if it is because the darknet markets, or it is just a speculation. Maybe it will find its usage (i.e. better adoption, which can justify the current price) in future, but imho it would not be that big as many people are expecting.

People should perform due diligence on these coins, not on me, because I am 101% sure that some of them will FAIL.

I wouldnt it call the anon race... we had that back in the days when Dash was Darkcoin. It is more some band-waggoning of the Monero Hype.

[generalizethis]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15319998#msg15319998 This was the statement I was talking about--you dodge around your statements, so the reader can attempt to figure out exactly where you stand for themselves.

[vlom]

can you please explain why you are writing "so-called "anonymous" coins"?

why aren't they anonymous?

concerning monero: yes i missed the train. because i just could not believe that this will be possible. the price is higher than ETH and Dash.

[bbc.reporter]

@spartak. I am interested in your speculation of when and at what price XMR will start to drop. I am holding some XMR now that I bought at 800k satoshis and this fast movement of price is making me a little scared to be honest. I happy that it has gone up real quick making my investment profitable but I do not know if I should sell now or sell later.

[spartak_t]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15319998#msg15319998 This was the statement I was talking about--you dodge around your statements, so the reader can attempt to figure out exactly where you stand for themselves.

I dodge around nothing! People are free to see the discussion beyond that single comment.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15320286#msg15320286

Tell me something else, but I demand for a simple answer. Do you think that humanity (at this point) is being controlled?

EDIT:

@spartak. I am interested in your speculation of when and at what price XMR will start to drop. I am holding some XMR now that I bought at 800k satoshis and this fast movement of price is making me a little scared to be honest. I happy that it has gone up real quick making my investment profitable but I do not know if I should sell now or sell later.

I have no speculation since I don't consider this as an organic growth, which means that Monero may drop to $1 or it can rise to $50.

[generalizethis]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15319998#msg15319998 This was the statement I was talking about--you dodge around your statements, so the reader can attempt to figure out exactly where you stand for themselves.

I dodge around nothing! People are free to see the discussion beyond that single comment.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15320286#msg15320286

Tell me something else, but I demand for a simple answer. Do you think that humanity (at this point) is being controlled?

I think people have always been manipulated and that they always will, so we need to develop tools to help them not be manacled too.

[spartak_t]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15319998#msg15319998 This was the statement I was talking about--you dodge around your statements, so the reader can attempt to figure out exactly where you stand for themselves.

I dodge around nothing! People are free to see the discussion beyond that single comment.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15320286#msg15320286

Tell me something else, but I demand for a simple answer. Do you think that humanity (at this point) is being controlled?

I think people have always been manipulated and that they always will, so we need to develop tools to help them not be manacled too.

Then you are dodging around reality and Monero, and this (realistic) comment makes you a communist. I rest my case.

[generalizethis]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15319998#msg15319998 This was the statement I was talking about--you dodge around your statements, so the reader can attempt to figure out exactly where you stand for themselves.

I dodge around nothing! People are free to see the discussion beyond that single comment.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1521860.msg15320286#msg15320286

Tell me something else, but I demand for a simple answer. Do you think that humanity (at this point) is being controlled?

I think people have always been manipulated and that they always will, so we need to develop tools to help them not be manacled too.

Then you are dodging around reality and Monero, and this (realistic) comment makes you a communist. I rest my case.

What? Was "I'm rubber, you're glue..." too obvious for you to use.

How does endorsing a tool to help you escape the watchful eye of the state, make anyone a communist? You seem confused. Commies want so much control that they can tell you where to work, and financial controls help them get (and maintain) that type of control.

[spartak_t]

People in general are sheeps and we must always comply with this. Cryptocurrencies are seeking for a better adoption, and in reality, this will not happen without some censorship. Here we can all have our own opinions, but that's what just they are - separate opinions. We do not represent entire countries or certain governments. See what I mean:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEhSk71gUCQ

Being realistic does not mean that you support censorship, manipulation or whatever... I once told you:

P.S. Believe me, I'm not arguing or attacking you. I can join you and we can both scream "POWER TO THE PEOPLE" on the streets, but the effect would be 0.

How many people you think we can gather? 100k? A million? 100 million? What happens with the rest 7+ billion? When we are talking about trillion/s of $ potential market you can forget about your privacy. It's that simple.

[generalizethis]

People in general are sheeps and we must always comply with this. Cryptocurrencies are seeking for a better adoption, and in reality, this will not happen without some censorship. Here we can all have our own opinions, but that's what just they are - separate opinions. We do not represent entire countries or certain governments. See what I mean:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEhSk71gUCQ

Being realistic does not mean that you support censorship, manipulation or whatever... I once told you:

P.S. Believe me, I'm not arguing or attacking you. I can join you and we can both scream "POWER TO THE PEOPLE" on the streets, but the effect would be 0.

How many people you think we can gather? 100k? A million? 100 million? What happens with the rest 7+ billion? When we are talking about trillion/s of $ potential market you can forget about your privacy. It's that simple.

Dude, the adoption problem is a strawman, "We can't get a majority of the people, therefore privacy is useless ." It's not that simple, as I told you before, there is an estimated trillion dollars+ in untaxed income, so yeah, Monero can help maintain that--unless you think it's a good idea for those who are smart enough to dumb themselves down and hand their money to the state for inspection--

[NorrisK]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

[Its About Sharing]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  

I'm not sure who is going to "win" the "war" between anonymous digital currencies, but you should think twice before deciding to invest in some of them.
P.S. Personally I don't really care about any of these coins (i.e. if they succeed or FAIL).

Cheers,
Spartak

This is a VERY YOUNG space and we know not where it is going. We don't even know what Bitcoin is going to amount to. But thus far, with all the economic problems (e.g. helicopter money, negative interest rates, governments attacking cash, etc.) it is clear Bitcoin has a role. If nothing else, wealth protection. But apparently so much more.

Well, now it seems that Bitcoin is not only traceable but that mixing services are being attacked (see Roger Ver's comments on that.) I don't see Bitcoin doing a hard fork anytime soon for anonymity. They/we are worrying about the block size fork/update. Just as TOR can save lives with information, perhaps Monero can also save lives financially. Looks like people are telling the government, essentially "We have nothing to hide, but nothing to share either" and until transparency goes where it belongs (follow the corruption at the top), we need to do our best to, dare I say, save ourselves.

I see Monero as a HUGE hedge against Bitcoin as it really does appear that States are watching (and dare I say influencing) Bitcoin. The last thing they want is something they can't easily control, monitor, etc. (And I would only expect them to infiltrate and manipulate Bitcoin for obvious reasons, namely it is their job and if you read those FBI docs, it is business as usual). These anonymous currencies are perhaps, the next step up in the game.

Dash's tech is just not tested and the node method of mixing is legally an attack vector. And don't get me started on the instamine.
I'm not sure on the others you mention but Monero is older tech, as well tested as any mid level Crypto in the arena.
Sure, lots of speculation going on, but Roger Ver stating Monero is going to $50-$100 - perhaps that really got the other Bitcoin whales involved. (odd timing) https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

I just don't think the Monero rise is a pump. If it is, man, it is larger money than we have seen outside of BTC. (For the record, I don't think ETH was a pump at all.)

Yeah, I'm in Monero and have followed it for years but the tech is real and the community, for the most part, is humble and tech savy...

[electronicash]

If you haven't buy monero yet, just don't try to as of now. Like the rest of the traders said, don't chase a trade or else get burn. It hasn't been stable yet. Wait till the price stays at 13$ for maybe a month and if it doesn't change, you can then decide to buy few to test.

[Febo]

BBR was  way higher as it is right now. I remember in 2014 was 1:8 paired with XMR whenever XMR moved up and down BBR followed.



@electronicash

XMR will always look to expensive.  It did at 0.005 and it did at 0.009 and it did at 0.014.  Or you maybe now think those were cheap prices?

[electronicash]

BBR was  way higher as it is right now. I remember in 2014 was 1:8 paired with XMR whenever XMR moved up and down BBR followed.



@electronicash

XMR will always look to expensive.  It did at 0.005 and it did at 0.009 and it did at 0.014.  Or you maybe now think those were cheap prices?

No doubt. But we'll see first if it stays that way after 3 months and that maybe the time I'd invest again. Been with XMR back when it was yet $.50 cash out when it reached $1.50 as it stays there for so long. If it drop til half of its price then that would be good and i might just expect this to happen. Once a whale dumps everyone who expects profit follows.

[Febo]

BBR was  way higher as it is right now. I remember in 2014 was 1:8 paired with XMR whenever XMR moved up and down BBR followed.



@electronicash

XMR will always look to expensive.  It did at 0.005 and it did at 0.009 and it did at 0.014.  Or you maybe now think those were cheap prices?

No doubt. But we'll see first if it stays that way after 3 months and that maybe the time I'd invest again. Been with XMR back when it was yet $.50 cash out when it reached $1.50 as it stays there for so long. If it drop til half of its price then that would be good and i might just expect this to happen. Once a whale dumps everyone who expects profit follows.

That was my point. 3 months?  Considering what i posted, "XMR always looks expensive" , where will be price of MXR in 3 months?

[generalizethis]

BBR was  way higher as it is right now. I remember in 2014 was 1:8 paired with XMR whenever XMR moved up and down BBR followed.



@electronicash

XMR will always look to expensive.  It did at 0.005 and it did at 0.009 and it did at 0.014.  Or you maybe now think those were cheap prices?

No doubt. But we'll see first if it stays that way after 3 months and that maybe the time I'd invest again. Been with XMR back when it was yet $.50 cash out when it reached $1.50 as it stays there for so long. If it drop til half of its price then that would be good and i might just expect this to happen. Once a whale dumps everyone who expects profit follows.

That was my point. 3 months?  Considering what i posted, "XMR always looks expensive" , where will be price of MXR in 3 months?

https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

[spartak_t]

This is a VERY YOUNG space and we know not where it is going.

No one with their right mind could argue with that. Fiat money needed like a thousand years to to prove their flaws. That is why I am creating such threads from time to time. People should think before they act. Its not like I'm cheerleading some coin or ask for their money.

[Its About Sharing]

This is a VERY YOUNG space and we know not where it is going.

No one with their right mind could argue with that. Fiat money needed like a thousand years to to prove their flaws. That is why I am creating such threads from time to time. People should think before they act. Its not like I'm cheerleading some coin or ask for their money.

Not sure that you took my post the right way - My post was meant to be more informative.
I don't think there are many fiat monies that lasted much past a hundred years. A few yeah, not many and it looks like we have a few about to go boom.

The title of your thread is "Beware..." and I'm sure most in this space know of the risks, but the biggest risk right now is the economy in general and not hedging ourselves.
I would for sure be risky of the newer alts as well as DASH, but Monero, by all accounts seems to be solid.
But if I was just getting into the game, I'd go to Bitcoin and only put 5%-%10 into alts. (And I would be real real careful security wise.)

Lastly, and I've said this elsewhere, I make no qualms about these Crypto's being our saviour. They are not, they are just a step in the right direction.

[shanem]

All these anon coins are going crazy lately but I don't think this is the top of the pump. My prediction for XMR is around $50 per coin.
It is such a long time since we have an altcoin that is worth 50 dollars excluding those coins with very little supply. XMR is the next LTC.

[spartak_t]

Not sure that you took my post the right way - My post was meant to be more informative. But if I was just getting into the game, I'd go to Bitcoin and only put 5%-%10 into alts.

That's the whole point. SDC's price (as we speak) increased with additional ~60%, while AEON lost ~12% of its value. Monero is continuing to break records and no one knows (if we not talk with conspiracy theories) when it would stop.  

[lsqgoddess]

Not only these 4 in your title. Remember boolberry, bytecoin are both cryptonite coins, especially bytecoin is the first cryptonite coin, and monero copied from bytecoin.

[DaveJones]

This is good for everyone over the long term.

People getting rich overnight will draw more and more people to crypto.  It's just the way it is.

[btcxyzzz]

Monero growth is more organic than speculative IMO, because it's being adopted by DNMs, recognizing that anonimity is one of the most important features of real money, if not the most important. These days Bitcoin hodlers and butthurts are now crying, they are learning their lesson hard: emotional attachment to any coin is bad. Me I started to leave Bitcoin the moment I saw this scaling debate is not going to end soon and well. Bitcoin is literally dying because powerful forces want it to be like that, but obviously they cannot stop the whole idea of real money, and Monero is more real than Bitcoin, that's a fact.

[spartak_t]

Monero growth is more organic than speculative IMO, because it's being adopted by DNMs, recognizing that anonimity is one of the most important features of real money, if not the most important. These days Bitcoin hodlers and butthurts are now crying, they are learning their lesson hard: emotional attachment to any coin is bad. Me I started to leave Bitcoin the moment I saw this scaling debate is not going to end soon and well. Bitcoin is literally dying because powerful forces want it to be like that, but obviously they cannot stop the whole idea of real money, and Monero is more real than Bitcoin, that's a fact.

Don't get too excited, because Monero is too young to be compared with Bitcoin. But let me ask you some questions:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?
Currently 99.7% of Monero volume is on Poloniex and Bittrex. What happens if the authorities tell them to halt all XMR tradings and delist the coin?

[iamrohitkgupta]

@spartak. I am interested in your speculation of when and at what price XMR will start to drop. I am holding some XMR now that I bought at 800k satoshis and this fast movement of price is making me a little scared to be honest. I happy that it has gone up real quick making my investment profitable but I do not know if I should sell now or sell later.

Use sell stop function to open a sell position when the price drops below a certain point say for eg. 2k satoshi, read this for more info: https://poloniex.com/support/stopLimitOrders/

[electronicash]

Monero growth is more organic than speculative IMO, because it's being adopted by DNMs, recognizing that anonimity is one of the most important features of real money, if not the most important. These days Bitcoin hodlers and butthurts are now crying, they are learning their lesson hard: emotional attachment to any coin is bad. Me I started to leave Bitcoin the moment I saw this scaling debate is not going to end soon and well. Bitcoin is literally dying because powerful forces want it to be like that, but obviously they cannot stop the whole idea of real money, and Monero is more real than Bitcoin, that's a fact.

Don't get too excited, because Monero is too young to be compared with Bitcoin. But let me ask you some questions:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?
Currently 99.7% of Monero volume is on Poloniex and Bittrex. What happens if the authorities tell them to halt all XMR tradings and delist the coin?

Oh no that's just make things worse. I believe they can do so.
Perhaps the rest of those who supports XMR will move to SDC as well after all they both have same features. Some people actually claim Shadowcoin is much better than Monero. Investing to both might just be a good idea as well.

[iamrohitkgupta]

Monero growth is more organic than speculative IMO, because it's being adopted by DNMs, recognizing that anonimity is one of the most important features of real money, if not the most important. These days Bitcoin hodlers and butthurts are now crying, they are learning their lesson hard: emotional attachment to any coin is bad. Me I started to leave Bitcoin the moment I saw this scaling debate is not going to end soon and well. Bitcoin is literally dying because powerful forces want it to be like that, but obviously they cannot stop the whole idea of real money, and Monero is more real than Bitcoin, that's a fact.

Don't get too excited, because Monero is too young to be compared with Bitcoin. But let me ask you some questions:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?
Currently 99.7% of Monero volume is on Poloniex and Bittrex. What happens if the authorities tell them to halt all XMR tradings and delist the coin?

I think I understand what you're trying to say. Investing in alt-coins has become similar to HYPE. The only reason people buy coins is to sell at a higher price. Most of the traders will never even own a wallet for such coins. While keeping in mind the benefits of speculation and trading we shouldn't forget that a commodity becomes useless if it has no/few end user.

[BiTZeD]

I partially agree with you, about SDC and AEON. They're totally manipulated. I think that people who bought them though about a "new Monero". But about XMR, even if I was totally anti-XMR, I came to conclusion that it might be the only valuable altcoin, due to its use for Darknet marketplaces.

[bbc.reporter]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

Are you saying that fungibility is overrated in cryptocoins? While I also think that anonymous coins will not replace bitcoin, they are an important part of the cryptosphere. They must be part of the foundation that makes it stand. If there was a decentralized exchange connecting XMR and BTC in between then this would be a perfect solution than using bitcoin tumblers. You can use XMR if you want anonymous transactions and use BTC as your "bank" at the same time. They can coexist. Who said there can only be one?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

War?  It's more like a bunch of boys who dress up as girls and claw at each other in the sandbox.  I don't think there is anything to be one.  It's like a battle of fanboys--no one else in the world cares enough about anonymity.  If you can pay with your debit card or through your phone for a coffee at Starbucks, people don't care about this confusing new technology.  Plain and simple.  Bitcoin itself has enough problems getting adopted by the unwashed masses, so how do you expect Dash and all the others to get a foothold?

[dinofelis]

To the OP: *if* the main usage/goal/... of a crypto currency is to be a better's token between gamblers (eh, sorry, "investors" and "speculators") trying to smart out each other and strip off (fiat) money from "the other gambler" in this big zero-sum game, then honestly, "anonymity", "smart contracts", and even the existence of a block chain and code doesn't matter.  All what crypto has become is nothing else but casino tokens.   Unfortunately, my impression is that this *is* what makes 95% of the price of crypto, bitcoin included.

So I wouldn't know what it means "to be adopted by the masses".  Does it mean that Joe is now also invited to play in that token casino ?  Is that what we call "adoption", and is the OP warning and suggesting that we should "protect" ordinary Joe from playing the household money in the crypto token casino, because "whales" are smarter casino players ?  Buying tokens to hope to see them rise, and dumping them on a greater fool ?  Is that "crypto adoption" ?

Does "adoption" mean that there is this big reservoir of ordinary Joes that are still unexploited as bigger fools to get ripped off by the "early adopters", the "miners", the "devs" and (mainly) the exchanges, which are the true outlets of value in this zero-sum machine ?

Ordinary Joe is not buying Euros and then dumping them for dollars or yen.  Some do, but that's a very small minority of people, and it is not the people that buy and sell fiat to hope to see it rise or fall that makes the "adoption of fiat".  Adoption of fiat doesn't come from the fact that people buy and sell fiat on FX exchanges.  It means that they use it, to earn it and spend it.  Not that they are gambling on it.

I would suggest to ordinary Joe (and in fact to just anybody) to stay out of this token casino.  It is ripping one another off, without ANY value creation (except for making the casino holders - the centralized exchanges - rich).

However, if by "adoption" one means USING crypto to do what one is doing now with more classical means: buying stuff, earning wages, doing business, transferring wealth, and yes, why not one day, signing agreements ("smart contracts"), NOT for the sake of crypto itself and speculation on its price, but to really use it, then yes, THAT is true adoption, and then, anonymity is an absolute MUST, because the open ledger of bitcoin is a *nightmare* for everybody looking for a minimum of privacy, or more, as a defensive weapon against the criminal syndicate that is the state.

By the time that people would use *bitcoin* to buy a coffee at Star Bucks (they never will en masse because bitcoin cannot handle that on chain), one should hope that there is something like monero or even dash or another anonymous coin where you can hide all the details of your earnings and spendings.  But we are VERY REMOTE from that day.  

In the mean time, the very, very tiny real adoption that crypto has, is probably there were there's a genuine need to hide from the prying eyes of the criminal syndicate which is the state, and where one wants to live freely and exchange freely: dark markets. Even if this only concerns a very small part of the market, there is at least a real use case for crypto.  It is the only genuine adoption of crypto I know of, apart from a few online services (which are MY only use of crypto).

The reality of a block chain, and the reality of the cryptographic aspects of hiding history, only matter if one uses crypto.  When it are betting tokens, the technicality of the coin has no importance: they are mainly abstract IOU on exchanges' websites.  And if one uses crypto, the actual price of a coin doesn't really matter too much  (it shouldn't change too much between earning and spending of course).

I would have preferred by far a small but real "adoption" USING crypto, even by a very small minority of people, with a modest market cap sustaining that real usage, rather than this big token casino that attracts institutional players, lawmakers and all that and kills the freedom of crypto even before it even took off.

If the "anon coin" rise is due to token casino stuff, it will attract lawmaker's troubles before it even got used for real, simply because their equivalent abstract betting IOU on centralized exchanges are hyped by gamblers.

[smoothie]

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

[dinofelis]

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

I would like to hope so, but I'm afraid that is not possible, if you look at Fisher's formula.  How long do you think that someone using it for payments is holding on its coins on average (between acquisition and usage in payment) ?  Do you think this is much longer than a month ?  If on average a coin is acquired and spend once a month, it means that a coin is, on average, bought and sold 12 times a year, which would mean that the total market cap of monero must be multiplied by 12 to know how much trade is actually done in monero.  That would be close to 2 billion dollars a year. 
In other words, to explain the current market cap of Monero, and assuming that on average a coin is held about 1 month between acquisition and spending, it would need to be buying a market of 2 billion dollars a year.  I would be surprised if that were true.  In as much as coins are acquired and spend quicker (say, you buy them on an exchange on Monday to spend them before Thursday), the total "business" done in Monero would climb to 15 billion dollars a year with the current market cap.  I wonder really whether that is true.

[spartak_t]

To the OP: *if* the main usage/goal/... of a crypto currency is to be a better's token between gamblers (eh, sorry, "investors" and "speculators") trying to smart out each other and strip off (fiat) money from "the other gambler" in this big zero-sum game, then honestly, "anonymity", "smart contracts", and even the existence of a block chain and code doesn't matter.  All what crypto has become is nothing else but casino tokens.   Unfortunately, my impression is that this *is* what makes 95% of the price of crypto, bitcoin included.

So I wouldn't know what it means "to be adopted by the masses".  Does it mean that Joe is now also invited to play in that token casino ?  Is that what we call "adoption", and is the OP warning and suggesting that we should "protect" ordinary Joe from playing the household money in the crypto token casino, because "whales" are smarter casino players ?  Buying tokens to hope to see them rise, and dumping them on a greater fool ?  Is that "crypto adoption" ?

Does "adoption" mean that there is this big reservoir of ordinary Joes that are still unexploited as bigger fools to get ripped off by the "early adopters", the "miners", the "devs" and (mainly) the exchanges, which are the true outlets of value in this zero-sum machine ?

Ordinary Joe is not buying Euros and then dumping them for dollars or yen.  Some do, but that's a very small minority of people, and it is not the people that buy and sell fiat to hope to see it rise or fall that makes the "adoption of fiat".  Adoption of fiat doesn't come from the fact that people buy and sell fiat on FX exchanges.  It means that they use it, to earn it and spend it.  Not that they are gambling on it.

I would suggest to ordinary Joe (and in fact to just anybody) to stay out of this token casino.  It is ripping one another off, without ANY value creation (except for making the casino holders - the centralized exchanges - rich).

However, if by "adoption" one means USING crypto to do what one is doing now with more classical means: buying stuff, earning wages, doing business, transferring wealth, and yes, why not one day, signing agreements ("smart contracts"), NOT for the sake of crypto itself and speculation on its price, but to really use it, then yes, THAT is true adoption, and then, anonymity is an absolute MUST, because the open ledger of bitcoin is a *nightmare* for everybody looking for a minimum of privacy, or more, as a defensive weapon against the criminal syndicate that is the state.

By the time that people would use *bitcoin* to buy a coffee at Star Bucks (they never will en masse because bitcoin cannot handle that on chain), one should hope that there is something like monero or even dash or another anonymous coin where you can hide all the details of your earnings and spendings.  But we are VERY REMOTE from that day.  

In the mean time, the very, very tiny real adoption that crypto has, is probably there were there's a genuine need to hide from the prying eyes of the criminal syndicate which is the state, and where one wants to live freely and exchange freely: dark markets. Even if this only concerns a very small part of the market, there is at least a real use case for crypto.  It is the only genuine adoption of crypto I know of, apart from a few online services (which are MY only use of crypto).

The reality of a block chain, and the reality of the cryptographic aspects of hiding history, only matter if one uses crypto.  When it are betting tokens, the technicality of the coin has no importance: they are mainly abstract IOU on exchanges' websites.  And if one uses crypto, the actual price of a coin doesn't really matter too much  (it shouldn't change too much between earning and spending of course).

I would have preferred by far a small but real "adoption" USING crypto, even by a very small minority of people, with a modest market cap sustaining that real usage, rather than this big token casino that attracts institutional players, lawmakers and all that and kills the freedom of crypto even before it even took off.

If the "anon coin" rise is due to token casino stuff, it will attract lawmaker's troubles before it even got used for real, simply because their equivalent abstract betting IOU on centralized exchanges are hyped by gamblers.

By adoption I always mean "average" Joe using it. Such pumps and dumps are not helping, because of the volatility. And why do you think that anonymity is a must? If the anon market becomes big enough, all the authorities need is to wave some badges and documents and screw it. They are not even obliged to say anything, except that is a matter of national security. How the americans ripped off Kim Dotcom for example? The guy even hasn't been in the USA.

We can reach certain privacy even with Bitcoin. There are a lot of people who has amounts of money for which even their closest friends are not aware of. How often do you tell to people how much you worth? You can even fool the banks if you use different accounts, so there is your privacy. History shows that a lot of smart people who knows how to protect themselves were caught. Why do you think yours/mine case would be different? Maybe in a later future part of the market could be anonymous, but currently its too tiny to begin such "wars". You don't go to a war with handful of people. And the situation can be compared with war, because once the authorities feels threatened, they are starting to use "techniques" which even Snowden could be scared to explain.

Bottom line. Currently we can somehow compare (though its not very accurate) cryptocurrencies with FX, but the average Joe does not trade. We should forgot for a moment about the gimmicks and focus on what really matters - to prove that Bitcoin (and others) are money, and that they can be used.

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

No, I'm not flawed, but looks like you are. I have asked a simple question:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?

Because 99.7% of the current (shown) volume (~$65Mn)of XMR is on Poloniex and Bittrex. Se we have few scenarios:

1. People are buying Monero, because they have seen its usage on the DN markets (i.e. they actually saw it was heavily used).
2. People are "buying the news" of DN acceptance.
3. Number 2 + speculation.

Which one is it? 

[iamrohitkgupta]

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?

Because 99.7% of the current (shown) volume (~$65Mn)of XMR is on Poloniex and Bittrex. Se we have few scenarios:

1. People are buying Monero, because they have seen its usage on the DN markets (i.e. they actually saw it was heavily used).
2. People are "buying the news" of DN acceptance.
3. Number 2 + speculation.

Which one is it?  

3
Darknet market isn't as big as we think (possibly due to lack of our knowledge and trust)
One thing to keep in mind is that, the users of most of the big exchanges like Poloniex, pump and dump manipulating markets for their own profit. And they don't trust in any other crypto except bitcoin.

[dinofelis]

By adoption I always mean "average" Joe using it. Such pumps and dumps are not helping, because of the volatility. And why do you think that anonymity is a must? If the anon market becomes big enough, all the authorities need is to wave some badges and documents and screw it. They are not even obliged to say anything, except that is a matter of national security. How the americans ripped off Kim Dotcom for example? The guy even hasn't been in the USA.

As anonymous as cash, because of course the aim for money is to be able to hide it from the state thieves syndicate, for two reasons: 1) not to have them steal it and 2) to be able to finance things they don't like ("illegal").

If you *don't* need/want to hide from state thieves, and if you *don't* want to do things that are against the wishes of the criminal syndicate that is the state and which is called "the law", then I don't see ANY utility of crypto.  Normal state-controlled banks and things like VISA are perfect for that.  Why would you go through the hassle of using crypto if you can do it with state-fiat and state-controlled banks ?

So adoption means when average Joe is fed up with his criminal syndicate and wants to gain his freedom again, and therefore you need anonymity.  Not much more than with cash.   Cash is good enough, but it is being outlawed.  You cannot buy a car or a house with cash any more.  You are even looked up weirdly if you try to buy an i-phone with cash.

Good old cash was anonymous enough, but it being outlawed, one needs something that can replace it for all those usages of cash where you don't want to do it with credit cards and bank accounts: THAT's the (only) user space of crypto.  THAT's where you can have adoption.  And that's about it.

To buy a perfectly legal and super-taxed coffee at Star Bucks, with your legally earned and super-taxed salary, and paying super-taxed VAT on it, there's no point in using crypto.  Use your VISA or your electronic cash wallet from your bank.  It is more private than using bitcoin.  It is safer.  It is less hassle.  And it will turn out to be just as cheap.

The only use of crypto is when the state syndicate and you are in disagreement over what you are allowed to do.  But then you better have some anonymity.

We can reach certain privacy even with Bitcoin. There are a lot of people who has amounts of money for which even their closest friends are not aware of.

That is because banks do provide privacy (as long as that privacy is allowed for by the state).  If you use bitcoin, if ever you pay some coins to one of your friends, if they want to, they do a chain analysis and will find out for themselves how much you own.  And if they cannot do that now, there will be tools on the market to do so 10 years from now.  They can't do that with your bank accounts (unless they have state power).

Bottom line. Currently we can somehow compare (though its not very accurate) cryptocurrencies with FX, but the average Joe does not trade. We should forgot for a moment about the gimmicks and focus on what really matters - to prove that Bitcoin (and others) are money, and that they can be used.

In order for people to use bitcoin as money, it has to bring them something that they can't have with the financial system they have now.   I don't see what bitcoin is bringing to the average Joe, if it weren't some form of "protection from the state".  If you are all in with the state, and are a "law abiding citizen" (you know, the kind of people that watch the neighbours and call the police if they suspect their neighbours might do something, oh god, against the law), then what use do you have with bitcoin, that you can't have with VISA and your bank ?

Why have all the hassle with bitcoin ?  The only thing one can think of, is speculation (my kids will have coins worth $10 000 when I die - I hope they will declare them and pay their due taxes to our beloved state).  I have never seen anything where you can use bitcoin, and where you can't use VISA, if it is perfectly "legal".

So the only real usage apart from speculation and greater fool theory, is when there is some friction with legality.  And then, bitcoin is outright dangerous, and you need anonymity.

[spartak_t]

snip

Bitcoin (as it is now) is superior to fiat money, because it cannot be "printed" as they are. No need to make deep analyses, because there are lots of materials, which explains why fiat money are flawed. I guess you know what the banks are doing with your money while they are on "deposit"? They are "using it" (on paper) to fund loans and such. Your $1 becomes $10 to them and they are happy with that. It is one of the reasons to look at you as "a freak" if you decide to pay in cash.

Use simplicity, it is the main "weapon" to make people like the average Joe understand what is Bitcoin. And you are using the Greater fool theory in number of your comments. Do you know that it applies to banks as well? The housing bubble is just one of the examples.

[dinofelis]

Bitcoin (as it is now) is superior to fiat money, because it cannot be "printed" as they are. No need to make deep analyses, because there are lots of materials, which explains why fiat money are flawed.

Fiat money is not "flawed".  Fiat money is an IOU-based payment system.  IOU can be created at will.   What you mean is that fiat money is not a sound money system.  But bitcoin is not either.  Bitcoin is being printed (mined).  Yes, I know, one day it will stop.  But for the moment, bitcoin is inflationary, just as fiat is.

I think that what you mean, is that the problem with fiat is that there is seigniorage, while in bitcoin, seigniorage is burned in PoW.   I agree with that.  Bitcoin is a fairer system than fiat, where there is seigniorage when loans are made.

Creating loans in the fiat system is the equivalent of mining bitcoin, in as far as this is comparable.

However, the fiat "theft" by seigniorage is ridiculously small as compared to state theft through taxes.  Hell, people are worried about 'deflation'.   We're talking about percent-per-year level theft, while taxes are about HALF of production.

So what good is worrying about percent-level theft when, by abiding to law, you have to hand over half of your production any ways ?

It is not because of "inflation" that average Joe is going to use bitcoin (and for the moment, bitcoin still is inflationary, probably still more so than fiat).

I guess you know what the banks are doing with your money while they are on "deposit"? They are "using it" (on paper) to fund loans and such. Your $1 becomes $10 to them and they are happy with that. It is one of the reasons to look at you as "a freak" if you decide to pay in cash.

It is in fact much more funny than that.   Cash is FED money.  Bank accounts are bank money.  These are DIFFERENT TOKENS.  Banks can make you think that their tokens are "FED money" only because they promise you to exchange them willingly on a 1-1 ratio, but they only have very limited reserves to do so.

Within their reserves, they CREATE as many bank tokens (IOU) as they want - and there's nothing wrong with that, because that is what fiat money IS: an IOU system.  Everyone could in principle make promises, and give them out as money, except that most people are willing to use those of banks, and not those of Jack, exactly because in the end, banks promise to exchange them for "real" FED cash in a 1-1 ratio, and *most people believe those banks*.

Use simplicity, it is the main "weapon" to make people like the average Joe understand what is Bitcoin. And you are using the Greater fool theory in number of your comments. Do you know that it applies to banks as well? The housing bubble is just one of the examples.

I'm not making any publicity for the fiat system.  I'm fully aware of how it functions.  But my point is rather the following: the differential advantage for average Joe to use bitcoin over fiat, *while remaining a law-abiding citizen* are essentially zilch apart from speculation.

Because "being a law abiding citizen with bitcoin" is exposing you to about the same troubles that you would undergo with simple fiat, without the ease of use.   The taxes on "law abiding citizen's bitcoins" are going to eat more of your value than the difference in inflation between fiat and bitcoin for the moment.  The volatility of bitcoin is way, way, way more dangerous than the inflation of fiat.

Also, don't believe that, if the state/bank system is in trouble, like in Cyprus, they will ALLOW law-abiding bitcoin holders to escape any haircut.  It would be too easy.  If there's a haircut on bank accounts (like in Cyprus), and bitcoin is "mainstream", believe me that they will consider bitcoin as "bank accounts" and REQUIRE their law abiding bitcoin holder citizens to hand over the same haircut in bitcoin to the state.

Again: if you want to be law-abiding Joe Average, you have no use for crypto.  And if you don't want to remain law-abiding, you need anonymity to a certain degree in crypto.

[Snorek]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  

If you believe that growth of any coin beside bitcoin can be called organic then you are a dreamer. Every Coin beside BTC was created with one in mind - to be pumped.
Only bitcoin had nearly ideal initial distribution. Now people actually - expect that every new coin will be valuable while backed by empty promises and hopes...

[spartak_t]

If you believe that growth of any coin beside bitcoin can be called organic then you are a dreamer.

Bitcoin still does not have the "organic growth" we speak of. That is why it is currently impossible to do TA on BTC.

It's just that other currencies could be manipulated more easily. 

[dinofelis]

Only bitcoin had nearly ideal initial distribution.

You call 10% of the final stash in the hands of the inventor, "nearly ideal initial distribution" ?

Bitcoin is just as much pumped as all the rest, people are mainly trading it as betting token (sorry, "investing" in it), not to use it to buy a pair of shoes with.  

[bbc.reporter]

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

I do not think the growth will be purely from speculation in the long term but you have to admit the price rise is indeed too fast. That movement is mostly from the traders and speculators buying and selling. If there is actual vendors accepting XMR now, will the volume be in the millions right away? Maybe it will but I would like to see that if it was possible to see it in a block explorer.

For me the merchants in the darknet have not reached transactions in the millions yet per day because XMR is fairly new. In a year I will not be surprised if it is.

[spartak_t]

Anyway, here's what I meant:



This is what happens when you are following the hype. It is a screenshot from a FB "virtual friend" who is "crying" on his timeline now. LBC is not mentioned in the thread, but can be included in the current hyped projects as well. What happened with others since I started the thread? Monero is down by ~20%, SDC passed $2.01, but it is now $1.27 and AEON lost 30% of its value.

Organic growth my ass.

P.S. Don't tell me it is a "price correction", please...  

[iamrohitkgupta]

Anyway, here's what I meant:

https://i.imgur.com/c8Ip5Oj.jpg

This is what happens when you are following the hype. It is a screenshot from a FB "virtual friend" who is "crying" on his timeline now. LBC is not mentioned in the thread, but can be included in the current hyped projects as well. What happened with others since I started the thread? Monero is down by ~20%, SDC passed $2.01, but it is now $1.27 and AEON lost 30% of its value.

Organic growth my ass.

P.S. Don't tell me it is a "price correction", please...  

This is exactly what I too wanted to point out.
On 31st August, I noticed a pattern in XMR pump and dump but no one seems to have noticed my post. Here it is:

I've noticed a pattern in Pump and Dump trend of XMR for 2 days.
Apart from regular short/long trading, prices start going down at about 3:00-3:30 and trend continues till 11:00-13:00 when it reaches minimum ~0.0126-ish and starts rising again.. Rise takes a while as lot of cheap coins are in circulation for quite some time but by 19:00-21:00 it reaches 0.014-ish. (all time ref. - IST[GMT+5.5])
My speculations may not apply correctly for future trades. This is based on my 2 days of trading experience.
If my speculations are correct price should drop to 0.014 or below within 8(+/-1) hours from now.
This is not a trading advice please study the market carefully before investing.

It didn't drop that night because it was already September 1st although price dropped to 0.0148.
This pattern is a proof of pump and dump in itself.

[Snorek]

If you believe that growth of any coin beside bitcoin can be called organic then you are a dreamer.

Bitcoin still does not have the "organic growth" we speak of. That is why it is currently impossible to do TA on BTC.

It's just that other currencies could be manipulated more easily. 

At this moment basically every open cryptocurrency can be manipulated, pumped & dumped, nothing is immune to speculation anymore.
When money is at stake it is nothing strange.

You call 10% of the final stash in the hands of the inventor, "nearly ideal initial distribution" ?

Bitcoin is just as much pumped as all the rest, people are mainly trading it as betting token (sorry, "investing" in it), not to use it to buy a pair of shoes with. 

Satoshi's stash is a side effect. We have no idea if it will ever be a problem.

As for "initial distribution" I am talking about fact that bitcoin initially was worthless. And you basically could earn thousands of BTC in the early years.
But people noticed its value and potential and it become valuable - that is ideal initial distribution, when dirt become gold on its own.

Unfortunately now BTC is being used as money making tool for whales and speculators. And it is not something that can be stopped.

[spartak_t]

Unfortunately now BTC is being used as money making tool for whales and speculators. And it is not something that can be stopped.

Of course it can be stopped. If the market becomes bigger, then the true whales may show up. And by saying whales, I mean people like Warren Buffett. They can easily corner the market to consolidate their positions and allow steady growth.

EDIT: Or turn Bitcoin into something like USDT is at the moment.

[dinofelis]

Satoshi's stash is a side effect. We have no idea if it will ever be a problem.

The problem is exactly the "we have no idea".

As for "initial distribution" I am talking about fact that bitcoin initially was worthless. And you basically could earn thousands of BTC in the early years.
But people noticed its value and potential and it become valuable - that is ideal initial distribution, when dirt become gold on its own.

Not really.  I agree that it is better than a limited oligarchy reaping in all the seigniorage, but in fact, the "sound money" part of bitcoin is exactly also the problem of another type of seigniorage: the increase in value which makes early adopters extremely rich in return for no production.  It is another form of seigniorage: the value upramping of a monetary asset.

Usually seigniorage has a more limited meaning, namely the gain you have when you create monetary tokens.  Ideally, a monetary system is nothing else but tokens that STORE value ; that is, they are a tool to translate value in time.  They should ideally allow you to obtain them against production/delivery of goods and services, and you can trade them against price-equivalent goods and services in the future.  The sound money doctrine comes from the idea that if someone can CREATE new tokens, he obtains "value for nothing" and that value is obtained by an inflationary tax on all previous token holders.  This is why the sound money doctrine says that the "amount of monetary tokens should be a constant".

Great.  But this makes the implicit assumption that the tokens came from "minus infinity": that we are already in "steady state", that the tokens already HAVE their monetary value, and that this has been going on since so long that we don't have to worry about how this value came into existence.  In fact, the sound money theory applies perfectly to GOLD, which has been valuable historically.  Of course, the sound money doctrine accepts that the price of a money token changes: it changes for two reasons:
1) the economy changes (expands: a token can buy more ; decreases: a token can buy less)
2) the market of offer and demand for "store of value".  At certain periods, people want to store more value (and tokens can buy more), at other periods, people want to use stored value (and tokens can buy less).

But on average, in the long run, the idea is that tokens can buy a given portion of the whole economic production.

This is in a nutshell, the "sound money doctrine".  It tells you that one shouldn't allow for "token creation seigniorage", because that is fundamentally unfair.

However, when creating a new monetary system, you face 2 problems:
1) you have to create the tokens in any case
2) these tokens have to "ramp up" in value.

BOTH of these aspects are a form of seigniorage (although usually one only uses this term for the first).  BOTH are seen as problematic, because you "get value for nothing".  You will be able to obtain goods and services, without having produced goods and services. 

Now, bitcoin has achieved the feat of having solved the seigniorage unfairness of coin creation by PoW: the miner essentially has to BURN the value of his coin creation providing "useless" PoW, which serves to secure the chain (a "public service").  So in fact, COIN CREATION in bitcoin is inflationary, but FAIR.

But what remains is value appreciation, which is fundamentally UNFAIR.  There is no reason why simply holding a token for which you didn't have to deliver much or any value in the form of goods and services, would allow you to buy HUGE amounts of goods and services afterwards.  The "risk taking" is not to be compared to genuine investment.  With a genuine investment, you invest in the *production* of new goods and services.  That production can work out or can fail.  If it works out, you've CONTRIBUTED to economic growth, and your risk taking and the fact that it worked out is the reward for having contributed to *economic growth*.  But "holding initially worthless tokens" doesn't contribute in any way to "economic growth".  There is no risk taking in the sense of trying to improve economic growth (spending on capital, and losing it if no growth, and winning if growth).

So "having your initial bitcoin stash appreciate value" is another form of unfair seigniorage, which is in fact exacerbated by the "sound money doctrine".   Ideally, given that the unfairness of coin creation seigniorage is solved with PoW, there should be MUCH MORE inflationary depreciation in order to avoid the coin price to rise much.  It should of course rise somewhat, but ideally, the coin emission should compensate essentially for the market cap increase, so that the individual coin value remains more or less constant.  THAT would result in *ideal distribution*.  Nobody would get rich because of early adopter.  Nobody would "keep coins" and hodl, because a stash of coins wouldn't appreciate much.
So ideally, the emission curve should follow the market cap.  I know that technically that's impossible, but the way many coins are programmed, is THE OPPOSITE, which is exactly what makes all this speculation happen.
Coins should emit FEW coins in the beginning, and more and more when they 'catch on' and get used in the market (as CURRENCY), in such a way that the individual coin price should remain constant and relatively low.

Unfortunately now BTC is being used as money making tool for whales and speculators. And it is not something that can be stopped.

This is a consequence of a bad application of the sound money doctrine which cannot apply to a "new" monetary asset, and whose theory didn't take into account that one could destroy creation seigniorage.  It exacerbates "value appreciation seigniorage" which turns the coin into a speculator's item, and not into a currency.

Sound money doctrine is good for a historical thing like gold.  It is not applicable to new monetary systems.  This is a fundamental error in bitcoin, and in most cryptocurrencies. 
Tail emission softens but doesn't solve the problem.  The main problem is that the largest emission happens BEFORE value appreciation, implying a huge potential for "value appreciation seigniorage", which is what drives most coin speculators, and makes that the coin will have difficulties becoming a currency.  It implies for instance the huge (speculative) volatility which is a problem for currency adoption.

[BitLinkInvestments]

There is currently just to much hype around these coins for me to feel comfortable investing much money in them.  These other "anonymous coins" like shadow has a broken coding system that doesn't even work.  The price of Monero as of right now is all just speculation.  Something frightening about Moreno is about how this coin does not scale.

[reb0rn21]

You just need to look at Monero block decline, see that GPU vs CPU is tied battle, first they promoted scam dash as anon coin now Monero, as it being primary CPU mined, like 90% is in hold of botnet mafia which rule the dark market, its not strange that thay gona pump something they hold
They invested zero $$ in mining it, so you can say its coin used for illegal stuff and the way its produces is also for main parties by using bot net viruses and stolen resources

I would never buy and hold this kind if CRAP, dev should fork it make it GPU or invent CPU con which could not be mined by assholes owning botnets

Say no to thieves say no to Monero!

[bbc.reporter]

If you believe that growth of any coin beside bitcoin can be called organic then you are a dreamer.

Bitcoin still does not have the "organic growth" we speak of. That is why it is currently impossible to do TA on BTC.

It's just that other currencies could be manipulated more easily. 

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis? The reason why some people use technical analysis is because they do not believe in fundamental analysis where "organic growth" is supposed to belong. In technical analysis the traders make money from the inefficiencies of the market and the irrationality of the newbies which is a lot in cryptocoins.

[DarkLurker]

There is currently just to much hype around these coins for me to feel comfortable investing much money in them.  These other "anonymous coins" like shadow has a broken coding system that doesn't even work.  The price of Monero as of right now is all just speculation.  Something frightening about Moreno is about how this coin does not scale.

There is no need to spread lies

[smoothie]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.   

As long as people continue being stupid and throwing their money at random stuff in the hopes they will magically get rich, manipulation, scams, and failed projects will continue to grow in number.

That's the point of the thread. We can't prevent them, but we can reduce them. Yes, you can say that there are a lot of "stupid" (I'd like to call them naive) people who would most likely "buy the news", but I don't think that's the main problem. Imho the main problem is people being greedy.

People being greedy is perhaps a problem, but a problem that doesn't have an absolute solution over the masses. Not sure what is the point of this thread once again as has been previously been asked.

People are responsible for their own actions. If they don't do their research into what they are investing into then that is no one's problem but theirs.

I don't believe that monero has branded itself as being an "anonymous" coin. At least not to my knowledge.

[dinofelis]

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?

My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis.   I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders.  That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter).  But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.

[smoothie]

So you never said anything pertaining to people needing oversight to protect them from their bad behavior? I have the day off tomorrow, so if I have to look it up, I'll look it up....

No need to dig around. I did said something like "people (at some point) needs to/must be controlled" and I stand fully behind my statement. That doesn't mean I am against privacy, it means that I am trying to be realistic here.

EDIT: P.S. My statement doesn't mean I am against "anonymous coins". I just want to warn people not to fall in the current hype.

This statement is not clear to me ^

What do people need to be controlled from exactly?

I think the idea of putting the word "people" in the context with the word "controlled" in such a way implying they should have some sort of oversight does not ever mix. You warning people not to fall into the current hype is not a form of control. So I am confused what type of control you imply.

[smoothie]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

[ranlo]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

I side with him, but not because of anonymity. It's more because cryptos are still way before their time. People still have issues with things like PayPal, which is a LOT less complicated than trying to use a crypto wallet. Now you have to secure the wallet, keep it backed up, etc. It's a complicated process for 99% of the people out there. This will absolutely hinder adoption.

[smoothie]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

I side with him, but not because of anonymity. It's more because cryptos are still way before their time. People still have issues with things like PayPal, which is a LOT less complicated than trying to use a crypto wallet. Now you have to secure the wallet, keep it backed up, etc. It's a complicated process for 99% of the people out there. This will absolutely hinder adoption.

Agreed it is complicated.

And that will limit how many people utilize cryptos to the extent that some of us do here.

That part of adoption is years away. That's not the focus right now.

[bbc.reporter]

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?

My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis.   I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders.  That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter).  But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.

No my friend. Technical Analysis works because there are many clueless newbies out there trading. It make the market inefficient and irrational. That is why we see people dumping on the news because the they believe this is the right way to trade. When they see that the price keeps going up after they dump they panic once again and buy up in the market again propelling the market up. Emotions drive the market and that is what you want. You do not want your competitors to become emotionless Technical Analysis drones who will not budge and trade efficiently. That will make trading not as profitable.

[ranlo]

It is clear that these prices are not sustainable and are a major bubble and manipulation by big holders. The reason it can take of the way it does is mainly because what people have seen happen to many other coins recently after the volume increases.

The people are just jumping on board of the train and will jump off the second it looks like it will start to decline again.

I still think these "anonymous" coins are pure marketing trick and will never gain mainstream adoptation purely because they are anonymous.

I suppose usage of cash on the black market is a marketing trick?

Black markets exist whether we like them (or support them) or not.

Hype does exist at times and fear does exist....not disputing that. But to say that something will never be utilized to its full potential is to say for example as some have said "The internet will never amount to anything" OR "No one will want to have a personal computer in their homes".

A privacy-centric currency does not need to gain mainstream support and acceptance to be successful in its purpose.

I side with him, but not because of anonymity. It's more because cryptos are still way before their time. People still have issues with things like PayPal, which is a LOT less complicated than trying to use a crypto wallet. Now you have to secure the wallet, keep it backed up, etc. It's a complicated process for 99% of the people out there. This will absolutely hinder adoption.

Agreed it is complicated.

And that will limit how many people utilize cryptos to the extent that some of us do here.

That part of adoption is years away. That's not the focus right now.

On a purely anonymous PoV, I do think that it's an important thing. And those who are against it should realize that cash, which has been used for illegal things ever since it was created hundreds of years ago, is also anonymous. But governments haven't made cash illegal.

[dinofelis]

I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?

My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis.   I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders.  That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter).  But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.

No my friend. Technical Analysis works because there are many clueless newbies out there trading.

Technical analysis is then just "doing the same as newbies, but 5 minutes earlier". 
I still stand by my "technical analysis" of technical analysis: it is a belief system, in the same way as a monetary token itself is a belief system: you believe the results of technical analysis because you believe that other traders believe it too.  So if TA tells you "price is going to go up", then you buy, because you believe (probably correctly) that other traders also doing THE SAME technical analysis see also "price is going to go up", and ALSO buy, which, holy miracle, makes the price actually go up as all of you buy.  In the same way, as TA tells you "price is going to fall", then you quickly sell, because you believe (probably correctly) that other traders doing the SAME TA will also see the message "price is going to fall" and hence are also going to sell, which, holy miracle, will make the price fall.

So in theory, if all of you traders were to have the same pseudo-random number generator with the same seed that would indicate in a random way (but the same way because same seed) "price is going up" or "price is going down", then this WILL indeed be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Now, concerning newbies that DO NOT have this seed, they will never KNOW when there will be a concerted "buy" or "sell" motive, and so they will, half of the time, buy when TA tells you to sell, and sell, when TA tells you to buy.  Because these newbies are excluded from the knowledge of TA, they will LOSE BIG, while a majority of whale traders following the same TA (or the same PRNG with the same seed) will always act in unison and reap in the noise of the newbies.  The newbies are also those "stabilizing" the price somewhat before the concerted actions of the TA traders and hence giving time to the TA traders to execute their selling (to newbies) and their buying (from newbies).

THIS is why TA works: because it is the concerted correlation message between "old boys of the market" pumping money out of newbies who have not this correlation signal.

[dinofelis]

On a purely anonymous PoV, I do think that it's an important thing. And those who are against it should realize that cash, which has been used for illegal things ever since it was created hundreds of years ago, is also anonymous. But governments haven't made cash illegal.

They are in the process of doing so.  For instance, in France it is forbidden to buy anything above 3000 Euro with cash, and they are going to restrict that to 1000 Euro in the future.

[smoothie]

To the OP: *if* the main usage/goal/... of a crypto currency is to be a better's token between gamblers (eh, sorry, "investors" and "speculators") trying to smart out each other and strip off (fiat) money from "the other gambler" in this big zero-sum game, then honestly, "anonymity", "smart contracts", and even the existence of a block chain and code doesn't matter.  All what crypto has become is nothing else but casino tokens.   Unfortunately, my impression is that this *is* what makes 95% of the price of crypto, bitcoin included.

So I wouldn't know what it means "to be adopted by the masses".  Does it mean that Joe is now also invited to play in that token casino ?  Is that what we call "adoption", and is the OP warning and suggesting that we should "protect" ordinary Joe from playing the household money in the crypto token casino, because "whales" are smarter casino players ?  Buying tokens to hope to see them rise, and dumping them on a greater fool ?  Is that "crypto adoption" ?

Does "adoption" mean that there is this big reservoir of ordinary Joes that are still unexploited as bigger fools to get ripped off by the "early adopters", the "miners", the "devs" and (mainly) the exchanges, which are the true outlets of value in this zero-sum machine ?

Ordinary Joe is not buying Euros and then dumping them for dollars or yen.  Some do, but that's a very small minority of people, and it is not the people that buy and sell fiat to hope to see it rise or fall that makes the "adoption of fiat".  Adoption of fiat doesn't come from the fact that people buy and sell fiat on FX exchanges.  It means that they use it, to earn it and spend it.  Not that they are gambling on it.

I would suggest to ordinary Joe (and in fact to just anybody) to stay out of this token casino.  It is ripping one another off, without ANY value creation (except for making the casino holders - the centralized exchanges - rich).

However, if by "adoption" one means USING crypto to do what one is doing now with more classical means: buying stuff, earning wages, doing business, transferring wealth, and yes, why not one day, signing agreements ("smart contracts"), NOT for the sake of crypto itself and speculation on its price, but to really use it, then yes, THAT is true adoption, and then, anonymity is an absolute MUST, because the open ledger of bitcoin is a *nightmare* for everybody looking for a minimum of privacy, or more, as a defensive weapon against the criminal syndicate that is the state.

By the time that people would use *bitcoin* to buy a coffee at Star Bucks (they never will en masse because bitcoin cannot handle that on chain), one should hope that there is something like monero or even dash or another anonymous coin where you can hide all the details of your earnings and spendings.  But we are VERY REMOTE from that day.  

In the mean time, the very, very tiny real adoption that crypto has, is probably there were there's a genuine need to hide from the prying eyes of the criminal syndicate which is the state, and where one wants to live freely and exchange freely: dark markets. Even if this only concerns a very small part of the market, there is at least a real use case for crypto.  It is the only genuine adoption of crypto I know of, apart from a few online services (which are MY only use of crypto).

The reality of a block chain, and the reality of the cryptographic aspects of hiding history, only matter if one uses crypto.  When it are betting tokens, the technicality of the coin has no importance: they are mainly abstract IOU on exchanges' websites.  And if one uses crypto, the actual price of a coin doesn't really matter too much  (it shouldn't change too much between earning and spending of course).

I would have preferred by far a small but real "adoption" USING crypto, even by a very small minority of people, with a modest market cap sustaining that real usage, rather than this big token casino that attracts institutional players, lawmakers and all that and kills the freedom of crypto even before it even took off.

If the "anon coin" rise is due to token casino stuff, it will attract lawmaker's troubles before it even got used for real, simply because their equivalent abstract betting IOU on centralized exchanges are hyped by gamblers.

By adoption I always mean "average" Joe using it. Such pumps and dumps are not helping, because of the volatility. And why do you think that anonymity is a must? If the anon market becomes big enough, all the authorities need is to wave some badges and documents and screw it. They are not even obliged to say anything, except that is a matter of national security. How the americans ripped off Kim Dotcom for example? The guy even hasn't been in the USA.

We can reach certain privacy even with Bitcoin. There are a lot of people who has amounts of money for which even their closest friends are not aware of. How often do you tell to people how much you worth? You can even fool the banks if you use different accounts, so there is your privacy. History shows that a lot of smart people who knows how to protect themselves were caught. Why do you think yours/mine case would be different? Maybe in a later future part of the market could be anonymous, but currently its too tiny to begin such "wars". You don't go to a war with handful of people. And the situation can be compared with war, because once the authorities feels threatened, they are starting to use "techniques" which even Snowden could be scared to explain.

Bottom line. Currently we can somehow compare (though its not very accurate) cryptocurrencies with FX, but the average Joe does not trade. We should forgot for a moment about the gimmicks and focus on what really matters - to prove that Bitcoin (and others) are money, and that they can be used.

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

No, I'm not flawed, but looks like you are. I have asked a simple question:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?

Because 99.7% of the current (shown) volume (~$65Mn)of XMR is on Poloniex and Bittrex. Se we have few scenarios:

1. People are buying Monero, because they have seen its usage on the DN markets (i.e. they actually saw it was heavily used).
2. People are "buying the news" of DN acceptance.
3. Number 2 + speculation.

Which one is it?  

You obviously have a difficult time admitting you are wrong.

Purely = 100%

The fact that people are accepting it for payment makes it not 100%.

The fact that I accept it for my physical coins also shows that it isn't used only for purely 100% speculation.

Sorry buddy you are wrong.

[spartak_t]

@smoothie

Quoting me 101 times would not prove you're the right one here. I'm not attacking your beloved Monero.

About the TA,

A true TA is impossible to be made on Bitcoin, because the market is too volatile. You need to research some specific patterns, which does not apply on Bitcoin. BTC for instance have some average price (seen on Coinmarketcap for example) , but it has big price difference on different exchanges. See what I mean:

BTC-E           BTC/USD      $602.10   
Bitfinex   BTC/USD      $607.70   
BitMEX   BTC/USD      $600.50   
OkCoin Intl.   BTC/USD      $604.28   
Bitstamp   BTC/USD      $599.62   

This would never happen with EURO/USD or USD/GOLD, or whatever. The market needs to be bigger.

[btcxyzzz]

Don't get too excited, because Monero is too young to be compared with Bitcoin. But let me ask you some questions:

Younger and better. Contrary to Bitcoin, Monero solved fungibility, scalability and centralization problems.

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?
Currently 99.7% of Monero volume is on Poloniex and Bittrex. What happens if the authorities tell them to halt all XMR tradings and delist the coin?

Then there wouldn't be a place to sell your portion, so the price stays the same . Imagine the effect in media: state is openly admitting Monero is the problem because they can't control it, it's fascism in praxis. Won't go easy with that, idea of anonymous money is there to live.

[spartak_t]

Monero solved centralization problems.

idea of anonymous money is there to live.

And it will, but not to a degree which many of you Monero lovers are dreaming of.

[smoothie]

@smoothie

Quoting me 101 times would not prove you're the right one here. I'm not attacking your beloved Monero.

Just because you say something, doesn't make it true. You have yet to refute my previous post.

But that's okay, you aren't the first to do such a thing.  

Also I never accused you of "attacking" monero. Please stop with attempting to construct a deflective strawman argument there to divert attention away from your clearly flawed statement.

[spartak_t]

I did said something and it was proved to be true. I created a thread, which should serve like "trading point of view" and we all saw what happened.

But I can tell you what are your attempts. I mentioned Monero in the thread and all of the sudden some of you become so defensive. It always happens when you say something about Monero or DASH. You all scream "power to the people", but you are all hiding, because of your "privacy". Step up and do something with your name, then we can have a discussion.

[generalizethis]

I did said something and it was proved to be true. I created a thread, which should serve like "trading point of view" and we all saw what happened.

But I can tell you what are your attempts. I mentioned Monero in the thread and all of the sudden some of you become so defensive. It always happens when you say something about Monero or DASH. You all scream "power to the people", but you are all hiding, because of your "privacy". Step up and do something with your name, then we can have a discussion.

Actually, ideas should have merit, and being helped up or held down by a name, goes to the old world system.

[smoothie]

I did said something and it was proved to be true. I created a thread, which should serve like "trading point of view" and we all saw what happened.

But I can tell you what are your attempts. I mentioned Monero in the thread and all of the sudden some of you become so defensive. It always happens when you say something about Monero or DASH. You all scream "power to the people", but you are all hiding, because of your "privacy". Step up and do something with your name, then we can have a discussion.

You have still not refuted my response.

Once again just because you "said" something doesn't make it true. Creating a thread doesn't automatically make your claim infallible.

Pointing out a fallacy in your statements (that you are unable to acknowledge) is not being defensive. It is actually calling you out on your claims and asking for this "proof" you claim to have made which you have yet to either link me to that refutes my response or you repeat it here.

The more you deflect the more it appears you have an agenda. I actually wanted to know if you could refute my statement which you then decided not to quote in your response....conveniently.

Once again, projecting a mind-set on myself or others by presuming what we are thinking (i.e. "getting defensive") makes you look very foolish. You can just ask me what my motivations are and I will tell them to you, but you have yet to do that either.

 

[spartak_t]

@smoothie

Discussing with you is a waste of time so you can just accept that my IQ is equal to a room temperature, /thread and continue to cheerleading Monero elsewhere.

[smoothie]

Since you chose to run away from the issue and not even quote my original response, your's, and my clarified response refuting your claims...here it is...

To remind you what you said:

One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation.

What I said:

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

To be even more clear of my point refuting your original claim in the OP:

Op is flawed saying that monero's price growth is purely speculation.

At least some of the price rise is due to actual vendors accepting it for payment.

No, I'm not flawed, but looks like you are. I have asked a simple question:

What is the XMR volume on the DarkNet markets?

Because 99.7% of the current (shown) volume (~$65Mn)of XMR is on Poloniex and Bittrex. Se we have few scenarios:

1. People are buying Monero, because they have seen its usage on the DN markets (i.e. they actually saw it was heavily used).
2. People are "buying the news" of DN acceptance.
3. Number 2 + speculation.

Which one is it?  

You obviously have a difficult time admitting you are wrong.

Purely = 100%

The fact that people are accepting it for payment makes it not 100% speculative (added for emphasis).

The fact that I accept it for my physical coins also shows that it isn't used only for purely 100% speculation.

Sorry buddy you are wrong.

By dismissing my response as "getting defensive" and claiming you've proved your claim (with no actual proof I'm aware of that refutes my response to your claim) it would appear that you are getting defensive.

I have not "chearlead" for monero in a while.

Yeah I sell physical coins but I wouldn't consider my input on monero as of late as "cheerleading". But once again you are deflecting with suppositions of what I am and am not doing without actually having the decency to ask me if what I am doing is what you think I am doing (i.e. giving me the respect to speak for myself without attempting to put words in my mouth).

[bbc.reporter]

@smoothie

Quoting me 101 times would not prove you're the right one here. I'm not attacking your beloved Monero.

About the TA,

A true TA is impossible to be made on Bitcoin, because the market is too volatile. You need to research some specific patterns, which does not apply on Bitcoin. BTC for instance have some average price (seen on Coinmarketcap for example) , but it has big price difference on different exchanges. See what I mean:

BTC-E           BTC/USD      $602.10   
Bitfinex   BTC/USD      $607.70   
BitMEX   BTC/USD      $600.50   
OkCoin Intl.   BTC/USD      $604.28   
Bitstamp   BTC/USD      $599.62   

This would never happen with EURO/USD or USD/GOLD, or whatever. The market needs to be bigger.

I think you are mistaken again. Is it not the job of the trader who uses technical analysis to include volatility in his strategy? Or is your statement all based only on your own experience? Because there are many traders out there who are making money with the present volatility while using technical analysis.

@smoothie. Do you have the numbers and statistics available on how much XMR is accepted in the darknet? For me the rise is more because of XMR speculation because maybe the buying and selling of items with XMR is not that big yet. I could be wrong but I would like to see the numbers and the data to be sure.

[generalizethis]

@smoothie

Quoting me 101 times would not prove you're the right one here. I'm not attacking your beloved Monero.

About the TA,

A true TA is impossible to be made on Bitcoin, because the market is too volatile. You need to research some specific patterns, which does not apply on Bitcoin. BTC for instance have some average price (seen on Coinmarketcap for example) , but it has big price difference on different exchanges. See what I mean:

BTC-E           BTC/USD      $602.10   
Bitfinex   BTC/USD      $607.70   
BitMEX   BTC/USD      $600.50   
OkCoin Intl.   BTC/USD      $604.28   
Bitstamp   BTC/USD      $599.62   

This would never happen with EURO/USD or USD/GOLD, or whatever. The market needs to be bigger.

I think you are mistaken again. Is it not the job of the trader who uses technical analysis to include volatility in his strategy? Or is your statement all based only on your own experience? Because there are many traders out there who are making money with the present volatility while using technical analysis.

@smoothie. Do you have the numbers and statistics available on how much XMR is accepted in the darknet? For me the rise is more because of XMR speculation because maybe the buying and selling of items with XMR is not that big yet. I could be wrong but I would like to see the numbers and the data to be sure.

What I'm watching is the daily BTC % of total CC transactions--it's small (0.1 a day) but it is a fight. The Dash sucking out was more pronounced, but some still blindly put their faith in mixers--my guess are dealers and vendors win and the XMR starts to circulate at wider and wider dispersal rates.

[spartak_t]

I think you are mistaken again. Is it not the job of the trader who uses technical analysis to include volatility in his strategy?

Like I said, BTC market is too volatile and very often it does not follow certain patterns, which are important "tools" to use while making TA.

[bbc.reporter]

I think you are mistaken again. Is it not the job of the trader who uses technical analysis to include volatility in his strategy?

Like I said, BTC market is too volatile and very often it does not follow certain patterns, which are important "tools" to use while making TA.

Is there such a thing as "too volatile" in trading? What are you saying that no trader can use technical analysis no matter how good they are because "it does not work" and also because there is not enough "organic growth"? Well there is a LOT of volatility in penny stocks and there is NO organic growth in them, they are traded for speculative value, so why are there profitable day traders trading them for a living?

[spartak_t]

Comparing penny stocks market with Bitcoin is like comparing Apple/Samsung with a local phone shop. And it is not a good example since TA on penny stocks has its pros and cons.

[bbc.reporter]

Comparing penny stocks market with Bitcoin is like comparing Apple/Samsung with a local phone shop. And it is not a good example since TA on penny stocks has its pros and cons.

What are you talking about? Trading is trading, there's the price, the volume and the movement of the market. This is not rocket science and it all can be analyzed using technical analysis. Some traders even trade across all stocks, commodities and forex. Do not tell me these are all the same to you. Also may I point out those 3 have different ranges of volatility it is up to the trader to adjust if he really is good at trading.

[spartak_t]

Look buddy, I have broker certificate "A" from Sofia Commodity exchange since 2003, so I know a thing or two about trading. But this is not the subject of the thread.

P.S. Anyway, you can make some research and you'll see that I'm right.

[bbc.reporter]

Look buddy, I have broker certificate "A" from Sofia Commodity exchange since 2003, so I know a thing or two about trading. But this is not the subject of the thread.

P.S. Anyway, you can make some research and you'll see that I'm right.

Then you must suck as a trader if you have that certificate and still think that way. Most professional day traders would love to trade this kind of volatility like the altcoin market has. I suspect some of them might be trading in the cryptosphere now.

Also if you are a broker it does not mean you are a good trader. It just means you have a license to take orders from your clients and bosses in the commodity market.

[spartak_t]

And what is that I am thinking? That not a single "professional" trader can perform a true TA on Bitcoin or altcoins? And this makes me a lousy trader? Come on, be serious.

[bbc.reporter]

And what is that I am thinking? That not a single "professional" trader can perform a true TA on Bitcoin or altcoins? And this makes me a lousy trader? Come on, be serious.

I know, you already made your point. But it does not mean you are right. Having a brokers license does not make you an authority in the matter. I find it also funny that a guy with a brokers license started "fail coin" and expect to be taken seriously.

[spartak_t]

1. I am right and you will understand that if you at least try to do some research.
2. Do you think that the FailArmy YouTube channel for example could be taken seriously?



They only have 11.4 million subscribers and over 3.1 billion views. Not to mention Jukin media (which owns FailArmy) with over 40 million subscribers and 14 billion views on YouTube alone.

You are not the first one mocking with FAIL and this serves you no good. We are nice people, we don't deserve such attitude, and if you think about it a bit more, then you'll realize that FAIL has a better potential than probably 90% of the alts.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Use "anonymous" coins to invest and make money not to buy hookers and blow with. 

[Vlad2Vlad]

And what is that I am thinking? That not a single "professional" trader can perform a true TA on Bitcoin or altcoins? And this makes me a lousy trader? Come on, be serious.

TA is pointless especially when you have manipulation. 

[spartak_t]

TA is pointless especially when you have manipulation. 

No shit?

[dinofelis]

Is there such a thing as "too volatile" in trading? What are you saying that no trader can use technical analysis no matter how good they are because "it does not work" and also because there is not enough "organic growth"? Well there is a LOT of volatility in penny stocks and there is NO organic growth in them, they are traded for speculative value, so why are there profitable day traders trading them for a living?

Technical analysis is rationally BS, but it is a self-fulfilling prophecy if enough people trading the stuff follow it.  So technical analysis "works", but only if enough of your peers think that it works and use it (and if at the same time, there is still enough uncorrelated noise from "newbies" to take profits from).  There must be some optimal mix of traders using TA, and newbies not using TA, for TA to "work" (that is, bring profit to the one using it).  If you are using the "wrong" TA (that is, a small minority in a certain asset trading club), then you are a "newbie" in that circle, because you will just be to-be-ripped-off noise on top of a correlated movement.

You can very easily simulate this in toy models.

[bbc.reporter]

1. I am right and you will understand that if you at least try to do some research.
2. Do you think that the FailArmy YouTube channel for example could be taken seriously?



They only have 11.4 million subscribers and over 3.1 billion views. Not to mention Jukin media (which owns FailArmy) with over 40 million subscribers and 14 billion views on YouTube alone.

You are not the first one mocking with FAIL and this serves you no good. We are nice people, we don't deserve such attitude, and if you think about it a bit more, then you'll realize that FAIL has a better potential than probably 90% of the alts.

I rest my case.

I will not argue with you anymore and we have both made our points clear. I am happy with that. Let us just agree to disagree and be on our way.

[Vlad2Vlad]

TA is pointless especially when you have manipulation. 

No shit?

No shit.  lol.

Many traders here don't get it somehow. 

[spartak_t]

I rest my case. 

I rest my case long time ago. 2 more guys implied on why you just can't perform TA on altcoins. And even Bitcoin (that's just my opinion).

[TrueAnon]

Yes I agree with OP.  But suckers/sheep will buy to high and baghold all from whales and their bots playing hte hype and facade of such anon coins.  Even I am fan but tactics are bad.  As usual polo has insiders on this too.

[spartak_t]

So what happened about a month later?

1. Monero dump started somewhere at the time I created this thread (September 3th). Later it has some ups and downs, but basically we can see a downtrend ever since:



2. ShadowCash is so far the only "winner". It had several pumps and dumps since the beginning of this month and its price reached a peak of over 316k satoshi (~$2). But there is a downtrend as well (no, it is not "price correction", zoom the graphs on exchanges and you'll see).



3. Aeon. Well, can't say anything specific about this one... the numbers are saying all.

[glerant]

Yes I agree with OP.  But suckers/sheep will buy to high and baghold all from whales and their bots playing hte hype and facade of such anon coins.  Even I am fan but tactics are bad.  As usual polo has insiders on this too.

Be that as it may - there is no doubting the uptick in XMR transactions that are leading to these types of speculations and pumps.

[Tanglemymind]

Look buddy, I have broker certificate "A" from Sofia Commodity exchange since 2003, so I know a thing or two about trading. But this is not the subject of the thread.

P.S. Anyway, you can make some research and you'll see that I'm right.

Haha, that was a waste of money. 13 years of trading experience yet you spend all day posting on lcb...a ok ! I see your trading experience didn't work well for you,haha.

Move on child, let the adults handle this wild west industry.

...13 years experience, thanks for the Friday laughs!

[spartak_t]

Look buddy, I have broker certificate "A" from Sofia Commodity exchange since 2003, so I know a thing or two about trading. But this is not the subject of the thread.

P.S. Anyway, you can make some research and you'll see that I'm right.

Haha, that was a waste of money. 13 years of trading experience yet you spend all day posting on lcb...a ok ! I see your trading experience didn't work well for you,haha.

Move on child, let the adults handle this wild west industry.

...13 years experience, thanks for the Friday laughs!

Oh, yet another smart ass with his sock puppet account. It would be a waste of time to answer you, but get this. If you are willing to put a 1 BTC bet, then I can show my certificate and prove that I am indeed a certified broker from the Sofia Commodity exchange. I've never said that I am the bitcointalk's Warren Buffet, did I? No more answers for you (unless you are ready to bet that 1 BTC).

[Shiroslullaby]

You think that the downward trend will continue with Monero?
I was hoping for it to at least maintain current value due to the fact some of the darknet markets started accepting it...

Has anyone heard news about ShadowCash being accepted at any site?
Darknet vendors are obviously going to be attracted to a coin that can help them remain anonymous.
If Monero fails I suspect people will move to some other anonymous coin.

[qwizzie]

So what happened about a month later?

1. Monero dump started somewhere at the time I created this thread (September 3th). Later it has some ups and downs, but basically we can see a downtrend ever since:



2. ShadowCash is so far the only "winner". It had several pumps and dumps since the beginning of this month and its price reached a peak of over 316k satoshi (~$2). But there is a downtrend as well (no, it is not "price correction", zoom the graphs on exchanges and you'll see).



3. Aeon. Well, can't say anything specific about this one... the numbers are saying all.

are you not forgetting one coin ?

[spartak_t]

You think that the downward trend will continue with Monero?

Not sure what to think. The growth was not natural so...

are you not forgetting one coin ?

If you mean Dash, then no. I started the thread mainly because of the unnatural growth of 3 coins (XMR, SDC and Aeon). I mentioned Dash, because it was in downtrend and showed the graph for reference.

[bigfryguy]

didnt take a genius to see that XMR was in a speculation bubble..  people manipulating that rise and now fall are making a fortune......  Id expect at least one more small and short pump before they return to dropping the price and accumulating.   

anonymous coin lol....  Id bet almost every monero holder has a polo account with a record of every transaction they ever did held by the exchange..

[Tanglemymind]

Look buddy, I have broker certificate "A" from Sofia Commodity exchange since 2003, so I know a thing or two about trading. But this is not the subject of the thread.

P.S. Anyway, you can make some research and you'll see that I'm right.

Haha, that was a waste of money. 13 years of trading experience yet you spend all day posting on lcb...a ok ! I see your trading experience didn't work well for you,haha.

Move on child, let the adults handle this wild west industry.

...13 years experience, thanks for the Friday laughs!

Oh, yet another smart ass with his sock puppet account. It would be a waste of time to answer you, but get this. If you are willing to put a 1 BTC bet, then I can show my certificate and prove that I am indeed a certified broker from the Sofia Commodity exchange. I've never said that I am the bitcointalk's Warren Buffet, did I? No more answers for you (unless you are ready to bet that 1 BTC).

Just 1 btc? How are you going to afford that?
Are you sure you not confusing your comic book certificate?

Get lost loser.

[gkv9]

I don't think that it is manipulation, but it was sure that when things will get sold against Monero, it will see a dump for sure...
But you cannot decline the fact that XMR is more secure against Bitcoins, because it has that inbuilt mixer for which you need to pay in case you need complete anonymity for bitcoins and so it also possesses the potential to rise back again, even more than where it used to be...

[spartak_t]

I don't think that it is manipulation, but it was sure that when things will get sold against Monero, it will see a dump for sure...
But you cannot decline the fact that XMR is more secure against Bitcoins, because it has that inbuilt mixer for which you need to pay in case you need complete anonymity for bitcoins and so it also possesses the potential to rise back again, even more than where it used to be...

Of course it is manipulation, that was already proved by the market (XMR is down by like 40% since the creation of the thread). This is one of the main problems, which cryptocurrencies have. Some of us (me included) are trying to prove that cryptocurrencies are money, but you can't explain that to the average Joe, when we have such volatile market. When he invest his 5$ into Monero (or Bitcoin if you wish) and one week later he sees that he has $2.5 in his account, then you already lost him as a potential user.

Yes, many people are making money in that way, but this is not doing any good for the masses. If some of you are fine by that, I'm not, but everyone is entitled to his opinion...

[dinofelis]

I don't think that it is manipulation, but it was sure that when things will get sold against Monero, it will see a dump for sure...
But you cannot decline the fact that XMR is more secure against Bitcoins, because it has that inbuilt mixer for which you need to pay in case you need complete anonymity for bitcoins and so it also possesses the potential to rise back again, even more than where it used to be...

Of course it is manipulation, that was already proved by the market (XMR is down by like 40% since the creation of the thread). This is one of the main problems, which cryptocurrencies have. Some of us (me included) are trying to prove that cryptocurrencies are money, but you can't explain that to the average Joe, when we have such volatile market. When he invest his 5$ into Monero (or Bitcoin if you wish) and one week later he sees that he has $2.5 in his account, then you already lost him as a potential user.

Yes, many people are making money in that way, but this is not doing any good for the masses. If some of you are fine by that, I'm not, but everyone is entitled to his opinion...

I wouldn't call it necessarily "manipulation".   This is the behaviour of pure "greater fool" speculation: buying at price X with the hope of finding an imbecile who will buy at price 2X (because he thinks he'll find an ever greater imbecile that will buy at 4X who thinks he'll find ...).  When the belief in 2X stagnates, obviously demand plummets, and the price with it.

But, as you say, this is the big sadness I'm also having about crypto: instead of having a market cap mainly sustained by usage (by the demand to *use* the bloody thing), we have market caps that are mainly sustained by "greater fool" demand.  That is always extremely volatile.  In fact, that demand cannot exist with a stable price and a stable price expectation: there is no hope for a greater fool, and there is no fear (nor of uncertainty and doubt, nor of missing out).  While a stable price is needed for usage.

Of course, when usage increases, price would rise too, that follows from Fisher's formula.  But it would be a solid price increase, sustained by more demand for its *usage*, and hence essentially independent of the beliefs of future price variation (which would be more of an unavoidable nuisance of increased popularity than anything else).

[vigZ]

No cryptocurrency is ready for the mainstream, not for years. No one is arguing that. This petty discussion about price and speculation is worthless. This is the 90s of the internet. Your grandmother is not going to use bitcoin nor is her children. Since this thread is about anonymous coins like Monero then let's start here. From a usability standpoint Monero is the only crypto that is actually private and fungible so that puts it fucking light-years ahead of most cryptocurrencies. The pitfall of Monero currently is no GUI, but I honestly don't really care about GUIs. Monero will have a GUI done soon and likely before the RingCT hardfork in January. Money is going to be made along the way, I don't hear anyone complaining about how Bitcoin literally went from $20 to $1200 and back down to nearly $100 all over the course of two years. I simply don't care about that. Shift your focus to the end goal of these cryptocurrencies and work toward that goal, everything else is worthless.

[DarkStar1O9]

People can trade in or invest in whatever they want you just have to responsible and also learn more if don't know how to balance capital. Look at how well 1cr did this month and that coin used to be under 30k sats over the summer. Many coins still have much further to go.

[HeroCat]

As far as I know only Monero is really anonymous, therefore it price go up. So if you buy Monero now, probably after few months Monero price will be much higher. 

[dranster]

DUMP ever anon coin XMR SDC NAV(USELESS SHIT) AEON and others, or CRY later!!!

ZCASH is coming up soon and will replace everything

[chaoscoinz]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  







Dash on the other hand is in decline (imho, it could not be called "price correction", because these dumps followed the Monero news).




I'm not sure who is going to "win" the "war" between anonymous digital currencies, but you should think twice before deciding to invest in some of them.
P.S. Personally I don't really care about any of these coins (i.e. if they succeed or FAIL).

Cheers,
Spartak

Darksilk will be on the market in the weeks to come, but that seems like a coin that will require patience and long term support, I guess it's still too early to speculate. We should strive to keep this thread alive. People always flock to the latest trend, the problem lie's within identifying the pattern, organic v.s hype.

[vigZ]

DUMP ever anon coin XMR SDC NAV(USELESS SHIT) AEON and others, or CRY later!!!

ZCASH is coming up soon and will replace everything

Why would anyone dump for a coin that is controlled by a corporation and is not even private by default?

[adhitthana]

Monero broke number of records (price, trade volume), but it looks like many people believe that SDC and AEON will follow its trend. One can argue if the XMR growth can be called "organic", but my personal opinion is that this is a pure speculation. Both ShadowCash and Aeon have never reached such prices and volume (you can check their history) and I think that investing in them at this point could be called dangerous.  

That proved to be sound advice. I think that we have not seen the last of these coins though. Personally ona risk reward basis I like Aeon ATM...
But as you say it's mostly speculation.