btc78
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Eloncoin.org - Mars, here we come!
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February 24, 2021, 10:01:40 AM |
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And the day has come the Closure of YOLOdice in this forum has decided Thanks you so much for these 4 years, it's been a great campaign. YOLOdice would not be the same without YOU! Special thanks to Moglie for running the campaign. And perhaps see you next time!!!
Cheers, Ethan
expecting next week that this thread will be close also , Is there any Farewell event from yolodice before the closure comes next month ? at least for the memory and gratitude for the Bitcointalk community ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) . https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254959.0and this investment test as well will be closed soon , Great Journey YOLO supporter see you next time .
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Stalker22
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February 24, 2021, 10:20:16 AM |
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I'm not blaming anyone here, I'm just saying that something didn't work well here. Which casino can operate with a 50% loss? <cut>
I was wondering the same thing at the time. According to all statistics, one player won massive amounts of LTC in just a few bets. There was a question whether there was an abuse of some kind of system bug or just extreme luck. Although Ethan put some security measures after that, we never got a clear answer what really happened.
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arwin100
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February 24, 2021, 11:18:46 AM |
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I'm not blaming anyone here, I'm just saying that something didn't work well here. Which casino can operate with a 50% loss? <cut>
I was wondering the same thing at the time. According to all statistics, one player won massive amounts of LTC in just a few bets. There was a question whether there was an abuse of some kind of system bug or just extreme luck. Although Ethan put some security measures after that, we never got a clear answer what really happened. Although they do a quite good exit but still they really need to answer those questions came from their investors so that they can clarify on what happen on that losses since it's really confusing to see those scenarios happening, but I'm quite confident that those are legitimate incident but let see the explanation made by ethan.
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Timetwister
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February 24, 2021, 12:26:25 PM |
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I don't think that you can blame the losses on Yolodice.
Unless there is substantiated evidence that Yolodice is tampering with the provably fair mechanism, which there is none, then the losses can simply be attributed to variance.
But the security problem is very interesting - how much did you lose, when was this, and what was the resolution that Yolodice gave you at the end? Did you get to speak directly to the admins about the issue or just a mod/support?
if you check the graph, 18-21 August there are some big wins which get more than 50% of LTC bankroll. As you can see, he has not recovered to this day. I'm not blaming anyone here, I'm just saying that something didn't work well here. Which casino can operate with a 50% loss?A big percentage if not all of those losses were suffered by investors, not necessarily by the casino.
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el kaka22
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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
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February 24, 2021, 12:41:22 PM |
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I believe only way that yolodice could ever be sold would be someone who is already huge in the crypto gambling world as it is could maybe take it with a lot of money, someone who has already successfully managed a casino before, and has the means to buy this one as well, creating both a good amount of purchase offer for ethan to consider it but also credible enough that everybody knows they will not be stealing people's money or something like that.
Only very few people I can think of like that who is not actively running a casino right now and that is either RHavar or Stunna, both managed to create world's biggest crypto casinos respectively for their time and both got out at the right time, both are very trusted, and both have the money for it. Yet I am %99 sure that they are not interested since just like Ethan they just wanted to get out.
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ethan_nx (OP)
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February 24, 2021, 01:35:37 PM |
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I can see that LTC loses raises a lot of controversy and I fully understand it. The first time (in Dec 2019) someone won most of the bankroll was when we (me and Scott) owned the bankroll, so someone won ~4k LTC in just a few days. This plus ~700 LTC in rakeback and referral bonuses. These were taken directly from our pockets. We then changed the max bet profit and changed the rules to make such wins less likely. We've also opened LTC to other investors, hoping for the stable (although probably less exciting) growth. LTC profits came back to 2019 levels, but to our despair a similar thing happened in Aug 2020.
Believe me, we became paranoid after the first win, but the second time this happened made us ultra-paranoid. We have been checking server logs, bet history, API requests, algorithms, number generators... everything we could. Although we found nothing, this was still disturbing for us, not to mention investors (you).
We've never made our LTC back, and if you had investments open in Aug 2020 you probably suffered a huge loss too. I can only say we did all we could to make sure it was a fair win and I believe it was. The probability was low, but it happened.
Other bankrolls did not suffer anything similar (fortunately), but are under-performing too. All BTC, ETH (which is not a public bankroll), LTC and DOGE's expected profit is higher than real profit, which is disturbing for us too. It looks like some players with really high budgets were playing YOLOdice and their budget allowed them to keep winning. When you have large budget you can will small for quite a long time, until you lose in a big way. But this (unfortunately for us, investors) did not happen.
I also realize that this discrepancy between the actual and expected profit could undermine our reputation and I don't feel well about it. That's also one of the reasons we are suspending YOLOdice, although I would be much, much happier if we could close when the profits were at ATH.
Besides, I still believe we could come with a model where both players and investors could be protected by a Provably Fair algorithm and not rely on site operators.
Cheers, Ethan
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ethan_nx (OP)
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February 24, 2021, 01:41:09 PM |
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I have changed the ways the BTC withdrawal fees and now we take the fee/kb from https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-tx . I was about to say they got much lower now, but the values got high again. Right now the instant withdrawal fee is high again at 0.001680 BTC and batch is at 0.00084000 BTC as the mempool becomes full again :-( Cheers, Ethan
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Findingnemo
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February 24, 2021, 05:49:22 PM |
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I have changed the ways the BTC withdrawal fees and now we take the fee/kb from https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-tx . I was about to say they got much lower now, but the values got high again. Right now the instant withdrawal fee is high again at 0.001680 BTC and batch is at 0.00084000 BTC as the mempool becomes full again :-( Cheers, Ethan Still the amount look too high because the highest possible fee required for one input and one output transaction is going to be less weigh than 1kvbyte so why better to process them in bytes to reduce the fees a lot more further.
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coolcoinz
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February 24, 2021, 07:34:23 PM |
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I have changed the ways the BTC withdrawal fees and now we take the fee/kb from https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-tx . I was about to say they got much lower now, but the values got high again. Right now the instant withdrawal fee is high again at 0.001680 BTC and batch is at 0.00084000 BTC as the mempool becomes full again :-( Cheers, Ethan You could set the fee as fixed 100sat/b. This would maybe take 6 hours to confirm, which whouldn't be a problem. With fees of around $30 you're overpaying, even with the current status of the mempool. That said, wish I had that LTC high roller in my referrals ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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BayAreaCoins
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February 24, 2021, 10:43:17 PM Last edit: February 24, 2021, 10:53:48 PM by BayAreaCoins Merited by DarkStar_ (10) |
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I have changed the ways the BTC withdrawal fees and now we take the fee/kb from https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-tx . I was about to say they got much lower now, but the values got high again. Right now the instant withdrawal fee is high again at 0.001680 BTC and batch is at 0.00084000 BTC as the mempool becomes full again :-( Cheers, Ethan All of those estimators are T-R-A-S-H. For the exact reasons as you outlined in a previous post (using historical data rather than real time). I've had Xploited (CLAM creator) create an API call you can use to estimate your stuff. It's the same estimates that we use for our exchange and our swap tool. Basically, This estimates the cost to go .75 MB deep in the chain at the time of the request. Each block usually takes 1mb off the chain, so it's isn't very aggressive and transactions can take some time to confirm. Being not aggressive kind of helps not contribute to unnecessary blockchain bloat. I think you'll be shocked at the price difference and the speed these estimates confirm! https://freebitcoins.com/xchange/api/v1/btcfee ({"satsPerVbyte":"102"} at the time of this post) Hopefully this helps y'all and your users! If you don't know what VBytes are... message me and I'll connect you with Xploited. <3
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DarkStar_
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Basically, This estimates the cost to go .75 MB deep in the chain at the time of the request. Each block usually takes 1mb off the chain, so it's isn't very aggressive and transactions can take some time to confirm. Being not aggressive kind of helps not contribute to unnecessary blockchain bloat. I think you'll be shocked at the price difference and the speed these estimates confirm! https://freebitcoins.com/xchange/api/v1/btcfee ({"satsPerVbyte":"102"} at the time of this post) I really like the idea behind it; it's pretty much what I've been doing manually looking at Johoe's mempool stats. However, for some reason, it seems to be returning 10 satsPerVByte right now, despite there being 45+ MB of transactions greater than paying greater than 10 sat/byte.
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taking a break - expect delayed responses
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BayAreaCoins
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February 24, 2021, 11:16:35 PM Last edit: February 24, 2021, 11:27:15 PM by BayAreaCoins |
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Basically, This estimates the cost to go .75 MB deep in the chain at the time of the request. Each block usually takes 1mb off the chain, so it's isn't very aggressive and transactions can take some time to confirm. Being not aggressive kind of helps not contribute to unnecessary blockchain bloat. I think you'll be shocked at the price difference and the speed these estimates confirm! https://freebitcoins.com/xchange/api/v1/btcfee ({"satsPerVbyte":"102"} at the time of this post) I really like the idea behind it; it's pretty much what I've been doing manually looking at Johoe's mempool stats. However, for some reason, it seems to be returning 10 satsPerVByte right now, despite there being 45+ MB of transactions greater than paying greater than 10 sat/byte. That's exactly what I did as well. The same website too! ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Good eye, something broke, Xploited is fixing the API call right now... because your right, 10 looks hella low atm. I forgot to mention, we have it set to a minimum of 10, even if the network is lower. I've just seen the network blowup in the low numbers too fast... 10 seems to be a decent number. I'll post when she's fixed... it should just be a minute.
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RHavar
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February 24, 2021, 11:56:28 PM |
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I've spent a lot of time on it, and honestly bitcoin core's algorithm is actually quite good. There's little things you can do to improve it, but it's probably not worth it. Often it looks stupidly high, but let's say you are using the default conservative estimate, (a 95% confidence?) -- it implicitly takes into consideration occurrences like "What if there's no blocks for the next 30 minutes, and everyone is out bidding each other". If that doesn't happen, your fee will indeed be stupidly high. But otherwise, it would've ended up stuck ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) If you want to save money on fees, there's a few good things you can do (both are annoying and a bit of a PITA though): 1) Batching 2) Low-Ball the fee (target a long-range with economical) and keep bumpfee it until it ends up confirmed 3) Cap the (initial) fee rate you're paying, so you're never too early in the mempool. If you're doing 2) you can bump it later as required, but you don't want to ever really be one of the highest fee rate transactions if you can avoid it
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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BayAreaCoins
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February 25, 2021, 12:15:54 AM Last edit: February 25, 2021, 12:32:07 AM by BayAreaCoins |
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I've spent a lot of time on it, and honestly bitcoin core's algorithm is actually quite good.
Bitcoin Core's estimator is trash. Even "economical" is WAY overpriced from my experience "these days" (2017 and after). They have no incentive to have their system pricing stuff fairly and all the incentive to overprice the hell out of it! (Profit for miners + no one bitching at developers because they didn't get confirmations, lol because you're going to get confirmations using Bitcoin Cores estimator!!!!!! I speculate that the Bitcoin Miners are purposely gaming the Bitcoin Core estimator too.) I explain it like this... None of us know the future, but we do know the present and the past. Think of the Bitcoin network like a 6 lane highway that does get busy. Friday = traffic jams and Sunday = Pretty easy driving. Bitcoin Core tries to get you to drive on Sunday as if it's Friday's traffic! That's fucking r-e-t-a-r-d-e-d!!!!!!!!! Anyone who has ever driven a car knows that you drive with your eyes in real-time... sure you don't know the future, but you just do your best in the present.
I also agree with RHavar's 1, 2, & 3. RBF is a pain in the ass too, but it's a good fucking feature! FB's cap our Bitcoin withdraw fees both ways with a min and a max. (10vsat min and 0.0003 BTC max) The API I posted will reflect that 10vsat min... there won't be a max, so you may need to add some logic if you want a max.) [We are still working on a permanent fix for that API thing, I'll post when she's complete... it shouldn't be long]
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RHavar
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February 25, 2021, 02:20:46 AM |
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Bitcoin Core's estimator is trash. Even "economical" is WAY overpriced from my experience "these days" (2017 and after).
I'm sure you already know about it, but you can use `estimaterawfee` and pick your own threshold. If you pick a low threshold (e.g. 0.5 ) you will get pretty reasonable fee rates, but you got to be prepared to feebump because they will be getting stuck Bitcoin Core tries to get you to drive on Sunday as if it's Friday's traffic! That's fucking r-e-t-a-r-d-e-d!!!!!!!!!
You're definitely right that that there is different transaction volume on weekends/weekdays and ideally the model would take that into account. I however don't think there's huge gains to be had, while if rewriting bitcoin core's coinselection results in huge gains. Easily save 50% on transaction costs, if not more. -- I think the fundamental problem is everyone wants to just "fire & forget" their bitcoin transaction. The only real way to do this, is using stupidly high fees. And if everyone is doing this, it gets a bit stupid. I never had the chance to do it, but I always wanted to make a service where you create N transactions each with a progressively higher nlocktime and fee for a payment. And the service waits until the nlocktime and broadcasts the new transaction. So effectively, say I wanted to pay you -- I'd could create 3 transaction: * Pay BayAreaCoins with 10 sat/vbyte now * Pay BayAreaCoins with 20 sat/vbyte with a nlocktime of in 3 hours * Pay BayAreaCoins with 50 sat/vbyte with a nlocktime of in 5 hours * Pay BayAreaCoins with 70 sat/vbyte with a nlocktime of in 10 hours ... And then I could go offline, and know that eventually you'll get paid
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Check out gamblingsitefinder.com for a decent list/rankings of crypto casinos. Note: I have no affiliation or interest in it, and don't even agree with all the rankings ... but it's the only uncorrupted review site I'm aware of.
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BayAreaCoins
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February 25, 2021, 02:59:53 AM |
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I'm sure you already know about it, but you can use `estimaterawfee` and pick your own threshold. If you pick a low threshold (e.g. 0.5 ) you will get pretty reasonable fee rates, but you got to be prepared to feebump because they will be getting stuck
I've never heard of estimaterawfee... it's not in the "help" text when I type it on the Console! lol *sigh* (or maybe I'm blind?) We messed around with estimatesmartfee for a while.
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BayAreaCoins
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February 25, 2021, 05:36:28 AM Last edit: February 25, 2021, 06:11:17 AM by BayAreaCoins |
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Basically, This estimates the cost to go .75 MB deep in the chain at the time of the request. Each block usually takes 1mb off the chain, so it's isn't very aggressive and transactions can take some time to confirm. Being not aggressive kind of helps not contribute to unnecessary blockchain bloat. I think you'll be shocked at the price difference and the speed these estimates confirm! https://freebitcoins.com/xchange/api/v1/btcfee ({"satsPerVbyte":"102"} at the time of this post) I really like the idea behind it; it's pretty much what I've been doing manually looking at Johoe's mempool stats. However, for some reason, it seems to be returning 10 satsPerVByte right now, despite there being 45+ MB of transactions greater than paying greater than 10 sat/byte. That's exactly what I did as well. The same website too! ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Good eye, something broke, Xploited is fixing the API call right now... because your right, 10 looks hella low atm. I forgot to mention, we have it set to a minimum of 10, even if the network is lower. I've just seen the network blowup in the low numbers too fast... 10 seems to be a decent number. I'll post when she's fixed... it should just be a minute. Fixed. Our mempool is still growing... the larger it is, the more accurate it will be. We had to move some stuff around and change a little logic & a new server, but she's looking better. It's aiming for around 0.5MB to 0.75MB deep & she updates every minute. This website is really decent too: https://fee.cryp.ee/#/btcThanks for pointing that out Darkstar. Good luck Ethan.
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rdbase
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February 25, 2021, 09:43:58 AM |
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I have to admin that what you are saying is highly inspiring to me. The decision about suspending is final, so that did not change my mind, but damn, [/b]YOU GUYS ARE GREAT[/b].
I am getting tons of emails from "potential buyers" about YOLOdice, and let's make it clear: our intention is NOT to sell it. Especially not for 1 BTC, as offered by one of such "buyers".
As you noted earlier, there is a matter of reputation - the new owner would basically have to start building his reputation from ground, and there is a pretty long way from that to accepting investments.
On the other hand I strongly believe that what makes YOLOdice reputable is 1. people that run it, 2. people that support it, 3. people that use it. There is a huge value in the package (1+2+3), not necessarily in the separate pieces.
Suspending YOLOdice is not THE end. It's the end of something, but come on - there are less and less people who want to deposit coins if transaction fees are over $10, and coins themselves are increasing in value even if you don't gamble them.
I respect Dooglus for closing JD and switching from BTC to CLAM - it was a sort of solution to keep the game rolling, but detach the value of the tokens from BTC.
YOLOdice might actually come back in the future (that's why I am reluctant to sell it), but in a different form.
Cheers, Ethan
PS. If you really want to buy YOLOdice, please spare me some nerves and don't offer 1 BTC for it :-)
Just received this news via the update a couple of days ago. And it is a tragic turn of events to decide to suspend play on your site as it had been around for a long time. One of the first dice sites from what I remember as I was never a primedice fan to begin with and your site was lightning fast at everything including the bets which was the important part of any gambling site. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) But as others have mentioned already, it was a decision you had to make and as with everything else in life: Nothing truly last forever. And it is probably the best for you and the site that you take a break for now. Hope you do recover and come back one day, so really knows. But all the best to you and your loyal players from Yolodice. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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Bitinity
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February 25, 2021, 11:19:17 AM |
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It is sad to say good bye to Yolodice. Although I'm not really active playing here since few years back but at least I have a great experience at Yolodice especially when it comes to contest as I won good amount from the past contest. I hope ethan will come back with new bigger project in the future.
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janggernaut
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February 25, 2021, 12:30:07 PM |
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IMO, if you said reluctant to sell Yolodice to other people, it would be great if you never give a little hope for them to tell them pm/email you their offer since you will decline it. Or atleast tell them how much mininum amount you want to accept so they won't spam your email with their offers (if you changed your mind and would sell Yolodice)
Here's my thinking: YOLOdice is not for sale. Definitely not to a random unknown buyer. I can image a few scenarios in which I would consider selling YOLOdice, but I don't think it would be an easy process. As you can imagine, it's not just about the money. Glad to hear you won't sell Yolodice to stranger or random user. Yolodice has gain their reputation from scratch, you shouldn't sell for any price IMO. Hopefully you and yolodice will comeback on gambling industry later, ethan.
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