SpaceX and the prospects of Mars colonization.

[Coinifyx]

There will never be a Mars colonization, you have no idea of how much Mars is distant from planet Earth

[Spendulus]

There will never be a Mars colonization, you have no idea of how much Mars is distant from planet Earth

That's just gonna make it a distant colony!

[exemplaar]

 
Science fiction writings:



Reality:

[BADecker]

Science fiction writings:



Reality:

All the time notbatman talks about the distortion and aberration that the atmosphere of earth does to camera pictures. But now you want to undermine his whole thing by essentially suggesting that the pictures are without distortion and aberration, and that the clear picture is CGI. You can't have it both ways. Either there is atmospheric aberration and distortion, or there isn't

As far as Wernher von Braun goes, he had a whole lot of knowledge about the space program that he was under oath and orders to not divulge. He knew all about the Orion Project - https://newatlas.com/orion-project-atom-bomb-spaceship/49454/ - which could get people to Mars in a few months rather than a couple of years... and do it in safety and comfort.

The fact is, we have enough equipment to assemble the Orion Project spaceship in orbit, and then boost it to high orbit (outside the Van Allen Belts), where the radiation it would produce would be pushed away from the earth by solar winds, when it finally blasted off.

In fact, this ship is powerful enough to move in on Mars from the outside (beyond the Mars Sun orbit), so that the radiation would head harmlessly out into the great voids of the Asteroid Belt. Even Mars would be protected.

I don't know that I agree with the Project, but we have the technology, and nearly the economy, to do it.

Elon Musk
exemplaar

[flametoken]

Well, you'd need the materials to build those cities with...

How about colonizing Antarctica? It'd be a whole lot easier than another planet, although it would still be very difficult.

You can get a lot of materials from the Venus itself. All you need to transport from the Earth it's the materials for the first sustainable factory. The rest will be sourced locally and transformed to whatever is needed.

About Antarctica, what would be the point? Maybe just as an exercise to train for Mars or Venus colonization. Because the thing here is that we need to become a multi-planetary specie and remove the single point of failure that Earth is right now. Humans can vanish from Earth for a dozen reasons and if we don't have a sustainable colony on another planet, the specie will disappear. And I think we should work to not let that happen.

[BADecker]

The problem with Venus is the heat. If the heat and the chemical reactions caused by it were not a factor, Venus might be almost as good as Mars. There are a host of other things that make Venus to be not as desirable as Mars for us fledgling space enthusiasts. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus.

We can easily protect from cold. All we need do is cover ourselves with more insulation. Our own body heat, and the heat from the heat engines we use, is enough to protect us from cold. But we don't have much in the line of simple protection from high heat. Mostly we use convection in one form or another to protect from heat when it is surrounding us. We can make heat from microwaves, but we don't really have an efficient "microwave refrigerator."

Mars is the better choice by far. Science would have to advance far to make Venus a viable option. And Mercury is way too close to the Sun to be any good.

God probably made Venus and Mars just to show us that He placed us in a position with a planet that is not too cold or too hot. The reason He would do this is to show us the love He has for us, and that we should be focusing on Him, and cleaning up Earth rather than trying to go somewhere that is way too difficult to live.

[Trading]

SpaceX new baptized Starship (former BFR) seems to be advancing even ahead of schedule:

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-big-falcon-rocket-spaceship-hopper-vehicle-launches-2018-12?op=1
"SpaceX is building a 'test hopper' Mars spaceship in Texas — and Elon Musk says it could launch by March"

[Spendulus]

SpaceX new baptized Starship (former BFR) seems to be advancing even ahead of schedule:

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-big-falcon-rocket-spaceship-hopper-vehicle-launches-2018-12?op=1
"SpaceX is building a 'test hopper' Mars spaceship in Texas — and Elon Musk says it could launch by March"

Bah.

I realized yesterday that it will be the Moon, not Mars, that is first colonized. The Moon is lacking in some elements which makes it harder, but it has massive solar energy power source.

The reason is quite simple. There is no viable business model for Mars; there is one for the Moon, and that would be 3 week vacations.

[Ciscopro2000]

I am not sure I want to live on Mars or any other planets.  But it would be cool to see the exploration of other planets.  I hope to see it happen in my lifetime. 

[stevenirons21]

It's unbelievable the fantasies some people have come to believe.

[BADecker]

People are quite weak. It is shown in the fact that they die, mostly before a mere 100 years.

Together people might be able to send a few of their kind to Mars. The ability to do this probably exists, if enough of them work together on it. But, they will still all die.

The trick to getting them to work together is to find something that they want, and wisely/shrewdly use it to leverage them into working together.

Musk knows this. That is why he is creating a variety of things that people want... so that he can get money from as many of the people as possible, for his Mars project. Why money? Because almost all people want money. How to get money from them? By making it look like he is paying them enough of the money that they want to keep them working for him.

This is a trickier job for Musk than many might think.

[Artemis3]

According to the plans published, there won't be any artificial gravity on BFR.

I clearly remember Elon Musk saying the BFR will be constantly accelerating to maintain gravity until the middle where it turns around start constant deceleration intended to keep gravity as well. The 0G would only last while orbiting and when turning around in mid route to switch from acceleration into deceleration.

I generally agree with most of the points, but I think small colonies are feasible, similar to the Antartica bases. If they build underground, the radiation and weather issues would probably be mitigated. I would guess if they happen to find some valuable mineral (ie. Gold) things would move on nicely (and the gold price would go down nicely as well...).

[Spendulus]

According to the plans published, there won't be any artificial gravity on BFR.

I clearly remember Elon Musk saying the BFR will be constantly accelerating to maintain gravity until the middle where it turns around start constant deceleration intended to keep gravity as well. The 0G would only last while orbiting and when turning around in mid route to switch from acceleration into deceleration.

I generally agree with most of the points, but I think small colonies are feasible, similar to the Antartica bases. If they build underground, the radiation and weather issues would probably be mitigated. I would guess if they happen to find some valuable mineral (ie. Gold) things would move on nicely (and the gold price would go down nicely as well...).

gold? the cost to move a pound just to the moon is about 3x the price of gold, to get something on a return trip would be far, far higher.

as for constant acceleration, that would require one of the several versions of ion propulsion, which would create a very, very slight gravity. not really noticeable. better to just consider as no gravity.

bfr is a launch vehicle, not a spacecraft. it could launch anything....

i stand by my former comment...

....it will be the Moon, not Mars, that is first colonized. The Moon is lacking in some elements which makes it harder, but it has massive solar energy power source. The reason it will be the moon is quite simple. There is no viable business model for Mars; there is one for the Moon, and that would be 3 week vacations.

[Artemis3]

According to the plans published, there won't be any artificial gravity on BFR.

I clearly remember Elon Musk saying the BFR will be constantly accelerating to maintain gravity until the middle where it turns around start constant deceleration intended to keep gravity as well. The 0G would only last while orbiting and when turning around in mid route to switch from acceleration into deceleration.

I generally agree with most of the points, but I think small colonies are feasible, similar to the Antartica bases. If they build underground, the radiation and weather issues would probably be mitigated. I would guess if they happen to find some valuable mineral (ie. Gold) things would move on nicely (and the gold price would go down nicely as well...).

gold? the cost to move a pound just to the moon is about 3x the price of gold, to get something on a return trip would be far, far higher.

as for constant acceleration, that would require one of the several versions of ion propulsion, which would create a very, very slight gravity. not really noticeable. better to just consider as no gravity.

bfr is a launch vehicle, not a spacecraft. it could launch anything....

i stand by my former comment...

....it will be the Moon, not Mars, that is first colonized. The Moon is lacking in some elements which makes it harder, but it has massive solar energy power source. The reason it will be the moon is quite simple. There is no viable business model for Mars; there is one for the Moon, and that would be 3 week vacations.

You are right, the ship itself has a fancier name, the BFR is just the (reusable) launch vehicle which was also renamed to something I forgot.
I believe SpaceX also has plans for the moon, and NASA is already thinking of playing in the asteroid field, something about towing one to the moon orbit, or was that also scrapped under Trump's administration?

Anyway space has multiple commercial benefits, and they have already done what nobody else did before: reuse stages, to lower launch costs. SpaceX can probably remain afloat while the master goal of going to Mars (and back) becomes reality, tho Elon Musk himself refuses to go, he sent his car for lulz...

[Spendulus]

....

Anyway space has multiple commercial benefits, and they have already done what nobody else did before: reuse stages, to lower launch costs. SpaceX can probably remain afloat while the master goal of going to Mars (and back) becomes reality, tho Elon Musk himself refuses to go, he sent his car for lulz...

Master goal? I don't care what Musk has as goals.

Just happened to comment that there was no business model for small groups or colonies on Mars; that's unchanged and cannot change.

Therefore, there will be no colonies on Mars. I could be wrong, just show the business model that would support the travel and colony costs for humans. But I don't see it for Mars.

[Spendulus]

Well, you'd need the materials to build those cities with...

How about colonizing Antarctica? It'd be a whole lot easier than another planet, although it would still be very difficult.

You can get a lot of materials from the Venus itself. All you need to transport from the Earth it's the materials for the first sustainable factory. The rest will be sourced locally and transformed to whatever is needed.

About Antarctica, what would be the point? Maybe just as an exercise to train for Mars or Venus colonization. Because the thing here is that we need to become a multi-planetary specie and remove the single point of failure that Earth is right now. Humans can vanish from Earth for a dozen reasons and if we don't have a sustainable colony on another planet, the specie will disappear. And I think we should work to not let that happen.

Venus? no, you can't get materials. IIRC, the surface temperatures were around 900F, so no going down there. Some speculation exists about living in airborne vehicles, like Zeppelins or such, in the upper Venusian atmosphere.

Antarctica would be useful to test self sufficient biospheres, which we have never achieved. Thus it's totally correct to say we DON'T KNOW HOW to build a colony off earth.

[Artemis3]

Just happened to comment that there was no business model for small groups or colonies on Mars; that's unchanged and cannot change.

Well, he wants the company doing the business of moving cargo and passengers to and from Mars. Perhaps an expanded version of what he is doing now to the ISS, and probably the moon and other places will add up as well (Lagrange point stations?). The basis of: Provide the means, and the customers will come. Similar to the west conquest by the train in America.

And it might happen that some governments could fund the colonies, just like they do today to Antarctica and the ISS.

[Spendulus]

Just happened to comment that there was no business model for small groups or colonies on Mars; that's unchanged and cannot change.

Well, he wants the company doing the business of moving cargo and passengers to and from Mars. Perhaps ....

Lot of hype, no business model for Mars.

By the way, something that should be obvious but apparently is not. Going to Mars is eight months in a SPACECRAFT, and that's one way. Musk is not building spacecraft. He is building launch rockets...

The spacecraft that could possibly do Mars is variants of the Constellation / Orion NASA project.

[BADecker]

There are such incredible amounts of funds that go for projects in science and the military, without anybody being able to pinpoint exactly how they are used, that we might have had bases on Mars long ago, using this... https://newatlas.com/orion-project-atom-bomb-spaceship/49454/.

[Artemis3]

Just happened to comment that there was no business model for small groups or colonies on Mars; that's unchanged and cannot change.

Well, he wants the company doing the business of moving cargo and passengers to and from Mars. Perhaps ....

Lot of hype, no business model for Mars.

By the way, something that should be obvious but apparently is not. Going to Mars is eight months in a SPACECRAFT, and that's one way. Musk is not building spacecraft. He is building launch rockets...

The spacecraft that could possibly do Mars is variants of the Constellation / Orion NASA project.

You are wrong. There is a spacecraft planned, its what goes on top of the bfr "Super Heavy"... Called "Starship":



In this CGI picture the launch vehicle "Super Heavy" is returning back to earth while the spacecraft "Starship" goes to an earth orbit to refuel with a similar shaped (but fuel only) vessel; to then carry on with its mission carrying people and cargo.

Here is the official site of their plans: https://www.spacex.com/mars
And here are more details of the spacecraft: http://spaceflight101.com/spx/its-spaceship/