SpaceX and the prospects of Mars colonization.

[Trading]

I still think Musk is wrong about the possibilities of a real colonization of Mars, because of economic and health issues.

But he is making so much money (and is expected to make more with Starlink) that he might be able to pay for a small colonization out of his pocket (forget about thousands of people living there until there is a revolution on space propulsion and effective protection against radiation and low gravity consequences).

He would just have to pay for the voyage costs (forget about many people to pay 200,000 USD to go die on Mars or return after a hellish voyage of more than 2 years with serious health problems), pay for building a base there and pay people very high wages to work there for some time (forget about people living there permanently).

In any case, forget about making it an independent and reliable place in order to be able to be a second home for Humanity in this century in case something happens to Earth.

Of course, as I wrote, there will be small bases on Mars, with rotating people (paid very well), like in Antarctica, for scientific and political reasons.

[franky1]

Elon is not doing a colonisation project.

he is the taxi service for others
he is also providing the drills and solar panels

so to him it doesnt matter if the people managing the colonisation succeed or fail. they already bought the equipment

EG
in the wild west. when a township sells, wagons, tents. pickaxes to a group. where the group then go west to mine for gold.. the township dont care if the group find gold or survive the cold winters. as they already got paid. "next customer please"

[vaultman]

It is too early to think about such topics, Mars has not been properly studied to reflect on the topic of resettlement to another planet, there is no technology, there is nothing in essence that could serve as prerequisites for resettlement. Yes, and there is already an answer in the post itself - the radiation level is too high for life there, that is, again, technology and special equipment are needed to live there.

[Trading]

My point is that there won't be the need for any transport system on the scale he is planning, at least in his lifetime. He is planing for hundreds of Starships.

He is trying to create the American transcontinental railway in the XVII century.

That won't happen, even if he wastes all his fortune. Shore, he will have some clients for his transport system to the small bases on Mars created for scientific and political reasons and to keep people there rotating for health reasons.

And, no doubt, he is stubborn enough to create his own Mars base. But he will have to spend a fortune investigating how to make living there safer, with moving buildings to create artificial gravity and means to protect from radiation, with some support from NASA and the ESA.

And he will have to enter the Mars construction business, pay for the houses there, the transport and the wages for people to go live there.

Creating a safe Mars base will be challenge that will take decades to solve and will be so expensive that is an economical nightmare.

No private corporation will waste a cent on Mars until there is an economic reason. Some resource to be exploited or intensive tourism. And no one with money will want to go live in Mars for good until at least is real safe. There are some who will be ready to go, but those don't have a cent.

I have real admiration for Musk, but amazes me that someone with the level of access he has doesn't get the scientific information before even start talking about these plans without some very prudent reservations.

It's like his debunked plan to nuke Mars to create an atmosphere.

[tvbcof]

This space travel stuff which gets 'modern' people's juices really flowing always reminded me of one of my favorite songs from perhaps back in the 1940's or earlier...because there is nothing new under the sun.  In fact we are going backward; 50 years ago or so 'we' sent a man to the moon...so it is said..., now we cannot really even get a man into orbit very reliable any more.  I blame the 'new math'...and the vaccines.

...
Nellie put on her Sunday dress
Thought that it would look the best
Made out of an old feed sack
Cow feed wrote on the back

* Refrain

Nellie went to town one day
Riding on a load of hay
Sold a man a trip to Mars
Now she sits behind the bars

* Refrain

Three leg hog walking cross the lot
Making three tracks and just one dot
Nellie said who do you think I am
That hog's missing about one ham
...

https://youtu.be/8wQriqz4yaM?t=147

[Trading]

Space X is improving the state of affairs from the current stagnated one.

Musk just confirmed how conscientious he is of the current problems of global warming.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/08/elon-musk-pledges-100m-to-carbon-capture-contest

Every measure adopted won't solve the problem. The number of people in the planet is still growing and won't stop up to 9 or 10 billions. Emissions of carbon will keep increasing.

The only thing that can save us is carbon capture technology. Our current one is inefficient and its cost are too high.

[franky1]

again
he is not doing the mars colonisation.. he is the transporter

its like the housing industry. he is not the house construction company. he is the truck driver delivering the bricks
a truck driver does not care about who will buy/live in the houses. all they care about is how many bricks need to be delivered

elons role is to be the truck driver delivering materials for mars/asteroid mining.. and on the return delivery bring back rare minerals 100tonne at a time(billions of dollars worth)

it doesnt matter to elon if its humans or robots drilling for minerals. thats not in his business plan. he is just the delivery guy.

its other companies paying elon to get their equipment to mars/asteroids.
yes elon is also making large drills.. using earth transport R&D grants to make them under the purpose of making road/rail tunnels under californian land.. but later requisition and the lease them out for other companies to use

but again elon is just the equipment/delivery guy .. not the company
much like JCB are not gold miners. they just sell diggers to companies that do the mining

..
in the old wild west.. owning a gold mine was not guaranteed profit nor easy money nor safest investment.. however selling the horses, wagons and pickaxes was very lucrative/guaranteed profit

[BADecker]

again
he is not doing the mars colonisation.. he is the transporter

They won't even get there if they have been vaccinated with the various Covid vaccines.

[Artemis3]

I still think Musk is wrong about the possibilities of a real colonization of Mars, because of economic and health issues.

But he is making so much money (and is expected to make more with Starlink) that he might be able to pay for a small colonization out of his pocket (forget about thousands of people living there until there is a revolution on space propulsion and effective protection against radiation and low gravity consequences).

He would just have to pay for the voyage costs (forget about many people to pay 200,000 USD to go die on Mars or return after a hellish voyage of more than 2 years with serious health problems), pay for building a base there and pay people very high wages to work there for some time (forget about people living there permanently).

In any case, forget about making it an independent and reliable place in order to be able to be a second home for Humanity in this century in case something happens to Earth.

Of course, as I wrote, there will be small bases on Mars, with rotating people (paid very well), like in Antarctica, for scientific and political reasons.

The issues you mention were addressed long ago. Did you even watch any of the conferences?

Gravity will be near 1g, ship remains accelerating until middle point, then turns around and starts decelerating at near 1g.

In case of solar radiation burst, ship rear is temporarily aimed at the sun until the solar storm passes.

Both things were addressed long ago.


As for scale and demand, only time will tell. Of course its easier to colonize the poles or the under sea, and by all means those projects should carry on. But these kinds of projects do move humanity forwards. He by his own hand has drastically lowered the cost of access to space, this is no minor feat no other single or coalition of States had managed so far (ie. a single American private company is already above the whole European Space Agency with ALL their national resources together). What they are pulling in Boca Chica is just astounding, shame on all other countries unable to pull this before from their State agencies, the closest being Nasa, Russians, maybe the Chinese; but the rest should be in shame, especially ESA still mistaking up and down Kerbal Style...

SpaceX deserves respect, period.

[Trading]

There won't be fuel to accelerate/decelerate to create gravity.

What has been proposed are rotating starships. But that has not been adopted yet by SpaceX.

And there will remain the problem of the low (about 1/3) gravity on Mars, the radiation, the perchlorate on the martian soil, the need to import most of the goods, etc.

It's obvious that Space X and Musk deserves respect. My posts couldn't be clearer about it. He is going to Mars and there will be small bases there. Major achievement.

[Mauser]

There won't be fuel to accelerate/decelerate to create gravity.

What has been proposed are rotating starships. But that has not been adopted yet by SpaceX.

And there will remain the problem of the low (about 1/3) gravity on Mars, the radiation, the perchlorate on the martian soil, the need to import most of the goods, etc.

It's obvious that Space X and Musk deserves respect. My posts couldn't be clearer about it. He is going to Mars and there will be small bases there. Major achievement.

These might be big problems at first but I think that the human body can adapt to the new environment over time. It might take a few hundred tears but our body could get used to lower gravity. The only problem would be if Uhr people from Mars would like to come back to earth. So far it seems that the travel and living in a mars colony is going to be a one way travel. Better take out family with us. Or make a new family over there.

[Renampun]

...

These might be big problems at first but I think that the human body can adapt to the new environment over time. It might take a few hundred tears but our body could get used to lower gravity. The only problem would be if Uhr people from Mars would like to come back to earth. So far it seems that the travel and living in a mars colony is going to be a one way travel. Better take out family with us. Or make a new family over there.

our bodies have a wonderful ability to adapt to new environments...
see how they are the Bajo tribe who have lungs that are bigger than normal humans or the Aborigines who have 4 times better vision than normal humans or those who are able to survive in extreme polar temperatures, all this proves that humans can adapt their bodies to their surroundings. in the next 100 years, we will definitely have friends or relatives living on mars.

[Trading]

The contract with NASA for the Moon landing was a major win for SpaceX.

It's not just the money, NASA now realized what SpaceX is able to achieve and decided to jump decisively on board. Of course, they will join SpaceX on the voyage to Mars and will also inject some prudence and realism on SpaceX goals.

This will be a partnership that can last decades. NASA experience and expertise will be a useful match with Space X energy and ambition.

The first successful landing of Spaceship was something. But seeing its first orbital flight will be extraordinary. It will be a return to the glory of the sixties.

And everything thanks to an human being.

[franky1]

im surprised..
in 1927 was the first proof of concept fight over an ocean
12 years later was the first commercial flight
twelve years. just 12 years

in 1961 was first proof of concept space orbit
in 1969 was first moon landing
eight years, just 8 years

in 2010 was first commercial proof of space orbit
in 2020 was first commercial USE(dock with ISS)
in 2024 will be the first commercial use to the moon
fourteen years, yep 14 years

it took people 60 years ago only 8 years to go from first flight to orbit.. to landing on moon
EIGHT YEARS

yet it is going to be 14 years to get from first commercial orbit(2010) to the moon(2024)

things have slowed down a bit
i know i know people are going to say the government in the 1960's pushed for it faster as a 'space race' and paid whatever the price.

but you would think just technology and knowledge improvements over the 60 years could've cut a expensive 8 year deadline decades ago into a 4 or even 2 year projection now

[tvbcof]

...
but you would think just technology and knowledge improvements over the 60 years could've cut a expensive 8 year deadline decades ago into a 4 or even 2 year projection now

_You_ would think something like this.  Here's a news flash: technology doesn't change the laws of physics, and engineers (technical, financial, etc) put their pants on the same way everyone else does at the end of the day.  Technically it is 'rocket science', but it's still science and engineering.

The quickest way to the moon/Mars/whatever is a neural lace, a set of VR goggles, some software, and some drugs.  Maybe a dash of special 'vaccines' too.  Most of you niggers will realize your dream of walking on Mars with all of your like-minded friends in exactly this manner I'm guessing.  Especially if you fall into some cult like Musk's...or I should say, don't get out of it in time.

[franky1]

...
but you would think just technology and knowledge improvements over the 60 years could've cut a expensive 8 year deadline decades ago into a 4 or even 2 year projection now

_You_ would think something like this.  Here's a news flash: technology doesn't change the laws of physics, and engineers (technical, financial, etc) put their pants on the same way everyone else does at the end of the day.  Technically it is 'rocket science', but it's still science and engineering.

if you like a pants analogy.
firstly im concerned you think people only put their pants on.. at the end of the day
it made me chuckle

then you are stuck in the 1960's training pants. where pants are new and your still asking your mom how to put them on.

but as you grow up you learn how to wear them. and u learn all the bum wiggles and leg jiggling to get them on in super fast speeds. oh and you learn to do the zipper up without getting your precious parts caught in the zipper

eventually what was a parent teaching a kid how to put pants on in the 60's taking a few minutes to complete the task. becomes something done without thought in 20 seconds.. in the morning

if you want to argue that you believe it takes the same time to put your pants on as the time taken when you were a toddler.. well thats your problem.

now a real comparison
in the 1960's it used to take car manufacturers days to put cars together by hand..
now machines can put parts together in hours

..
yes technology does move forward. but its a shame you have to admit your stuck in 1960's tech mindset

[Mauser]

...
but you would think just technology and knowledge improvements over the 60 years could've cut a expensive 8 year deadline decades ago into a 4 or even 2 year projection now

_You_ would think something like this.  Here's a news flash: technology doesn't change the laws of physics, and engineers (technical, financial, etc) put their pants on the same way everyone else does at the end of the day.  Technically it is 'rocket science', but it's still science and engineering.

The quickest way to the moon/Mars/whatever is a neural lace, a set of VR goggles, some software, and some drugs.  Maybe a dash of special 'vaccines' too.  Most of you niggers will realize your dream of walking on Mars with all of your like-minded friends in exactly this manner I'm guessing.  Especially if you fall into some cult like Musk's...or I should say, don't get out of it in time.

While this might be enough for 99% of the population, there is the 1% who want more. Being the first man on Mars will make you immortal. Even if it will be a one way trip without the possibility of return there will be thousands of applications to be the pilot. And if we have ways to live on Mars permanently it wouldn't be such a bad deal. The first colony on Mars will be very adventures.

[Trading]

The main problem is that as Science and technology progress, problems get deeper and more complex. Each move forward takes more resources and time.

The times when a single genius could make fast and decisive discoveries are mainly over. Now, it's the time of many scientists working together for years and spending millions to make a discovery.

It's the time of stagnating fields of knowledge, where decisive developments take many decades. Think about certain diseases (Parkinson, Alzheimer, Cancer...).

Some are saying that we will reach a level of development where further progress will be increasingly difficult and that unless we allocate much more resources (human, material, financial) we will stagnate.

AI can change this. As one of the problems is our limited brain resources.

[franky1]

My point is that there won't be the need for any transport system on the scale he is planning, at least in his lifetime. He is planing for hundreds of Starships.

the public advert is "go to mars for science and exploration"
                             "bore holes under cities for trains"
                             "use AI driving for cars"
                             "use AI tracking for space debris of satelites"
                             "use AI+ spectrophotoscopy for medical scans"

the capitalist pamphlet is actually
R&D consumer projects. have consumers pay
then use the results to:
mine asteroids(boring), self track 'payload' vehicles(AI) to grab and transport spacerock(starship)
separate it into raremetals(AI+spectrophotometry)
deliver it back to earth
sell on the commodities market by then 200tonne

[songchunlai]

We need a lot of robot to do this.