SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal

[Aqui]

need 520 000$ by day for absorbe just the new bitcoin at this price ^^
+ the seller ^^

[1713555864]

1713555864

[SlipperySlope]

21 days after the April 10 peak



The last 24 hours have witnessed relentless selling pressure. After the failure to buy through resistance at $146, the bitcoin price has dropped to $128 while making two attempts to sell through support at $127.  A third attempt is underway as of this writing.

Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I continue to expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs.

[master-P]

Still seems to be a lot of selling pressure. Looking at the orders, every time the price climbs up a little, a a few big sells take place causing the price to lose the ground it just made. I noticed a lot of people saying that if the price breaks $120, there could be a sharp downward trend caused by panic sellers.

[rpietila]

It is possible. However I see $200 by month's end a near certainty.

[SlipperySlope]

Alert - Perhaps the first, and largest, capitulation is at hand



The technical support at $120 is relatively strong, both as a numerical point for building bid walls and as a historically stable price point. Consequently, I believe the first and greatest capitulation of this bubble will occur as the price drops below this support. To the degree that this bubble follows the pattern set by the June 2011 bubble, expect this capitulation to be the largest, and to go deeper than most expect.

This expected capitulation is not the bottom.

[rpietila]

I don't believe the mid-term bear is over, before we visit $95 in the following max 48 hours. Buy as much <100 as you can.

(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)

[SlipperySlope]

Buy as much <100 as you can.

Agreed, but patience I believe will be rewarded.

[SlipperySlope]

And for comparison with the recent drop from $145 is this analogous chart from August 2011. Note that the price dropped over 50% from the failed attempt at a resistance point, and then proceeded to recover nearly all the losses.

[SlipperySlope]

I recently decided to go through some of the posts from the 2011 bubble, so here is some of what I found. Feel free to read the threads to get a better understanding of what people were thinking.

June 11, 2011
"Heads up! Market Bottom? You can buy now for under $22/BTC..."
"...this is a high reward / somewhat low risk time to buy"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=14914.0
I needn't tell you what happened next, but this was where we dropped below $13 and stabilized around $20, dropping to around $17 by the time MtGox got hacked.

July 18, 2011
"There are no rallies. There are no crashes.  There is just a slow, steady slide."
"I dont think its gonna go down to 7"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=29900.0
It stayed stable at $14, but...

August 03, 2011
"I think we could nick $6 short-term, but looking at $8 in the mid-term"
"I can't help but feel we haven't seen the bottom yet"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34053.0
Both statements were right-on.

August 15, 2011
"...a reversed Head & Shoulders bottom formation has developed"
"...a target price of around 13,5 USD/BTC can be expected"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37296.0
After bouncing between $11 and $12 dollars the next few days, we dropped to around $8.

September 07, 2011
"We have seen the bottom. $6.12 will be the starting point for a long road upward."
"We will never see $6.12 again."
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42094.0
A few days latter, the price dropped to just over $4 and stabilized between $5-$6 for about a month before dropping further.

September 09, 2011
"It is following the trend perfectly, now is the time to get in"
"If it drops below $4 today ... will you shut up?"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42495.0
"Bitcoin is over. If you're not out, get out."
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=42514.0
Stabilized between $5-$6 for about a month before dropping further.

October 22, 2011
"buy, buy, buy!!11111"
"The $3 wall: the gift that keeps on giving."
"We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch."
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49389.0
We broke above $3 and later dropped back to $2. But, if you bought at this time, you were golden.

Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed this. I encourage more of you to go back and check the old threads out!

@Maged

This recollection is so awesome! I am quoting here for comparison vis-a-vis the current trader sentiment.

[Rampion]

I don't believe the mid-term bear is over, before we visit $95 in the following max 48 hours. Buy as much <100 as you can.

(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)

didn't you just say we weren't going to see $115 ever again?

$115 never again, takers?

[SlipperySlope]

I don't believe the mid-term bear is over, before we visit $95 in the following max 48 hours. Buy as much <100 as you can.

(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)

didn't you just say we weren't going to see $115 ever again?

$115 never again, takers?

Rpietila revealed in another post that because he manages bitcoin investments on behalf of clients, one should not take what he says publicly for what he takes to heart.

[SlipperySlope]

Tickets Purchased for the Bagholder's Ball.



There is now a mighty mass of bitcoins purchased since April 1 above current levels and yet unsold. Back in August 2011, the first and greatest capitulation of that bubble had two legs, dropping over three days. I believe the situation permits a breather at ~115 for a day, then another deep plunge - to the extent that a single carefully selected instance from 2011 serves to model all such bitcoin bubbles.

[Frozenlock]

Are you posting the same thing in multiple threads? 

[bitcon]

the people dumb enough to sell at these prices are the people who are going to be kicking themselves a few months down the road.

[SlipperySlope]

Are you posting the same thing in multiple threads? 

I will stop cross posting now that you have mentioned it. And I am sorry that it wasted your time.

[Frozenlock]

Thank you very much, I appreciate it.

[SlipperySlope]

The corresponding capitulation in bitcoin bubble 1 had two equally sized downward legs over a three day period. If this one goes into three days then I expect it also will have a second leg down - which is indicated as a likely completion of the illustrated triangle pattern.

[RationalSpeculator]

Are you posting the same thing in multiple threads?  

I will stop cross posting now that you have mentioned it. And I am sorry that it wasted your time.

I like you taking responsibility and able to correct yourself

I enjoy very much your analyses. Thank you so much

[rpietila]

I don't believe the mid-term bear is over, before we visit $95 in the following max 48 hours. Buy as much <100 as you can.

(If we don't do it in that timeframe, I would go shopping again)

didn't you just say we weren't going to see $115 ever again?

$115 never again, takers?

Rpietila revealed in another post that because he manages bitcoin investments on behalf of clients, one should not take what he says publicly for what he takes to heart.

I have managed to increase my family wealth by 41% APR, over the course of 10 years. Of course that is not perfect, but I can't recall many who have done as well. Except now in bitcoin, you just went all in and never sold. But can you introduce me a to a person who actually has done it. There are not so many of them.

First 6 years of my investment career I was making a constant loss. (It's not included in the 10 years that I made a profit )
I think if you likewise have started daytrading or whatever after 2008, chances are that you also make loss even until now, since it takes time to actually understand markets.

Reading my short term projections (even if you do 24/7 like I do) only gives you about 52-55% hit rate. It is high enough to (who did the math in the first paragraph?) increase your wealth by a factor of 30 in ten years, but low enough to not do it in ten months, weeks, days, or hours, which many seem to want to put in my mouth.

If you want to make 30x your initial investment, buy bitcoins, and do not trade or sell them. I believe by October 31st, this year, you have it. This is my actual advice. It takes 10 sockpuppets created in March/April 2013, to try to derail the forum into believing something else.

If you want, I can still write you puts for $115 and I only ask BTC0.25 premium (expire 30JUN2013). If it goes below $90, you gain, if it stays $90-$115, you may recoup partly if you bail out, if it goes to $115 and stays there, you only lose the premium of 25%.

But this is a put option, not a fiat bet. In order to profit, you must sell me the bitcoins. Hint: nobody has ever taken my puts even though they are reasonably priced. The pros know that they just lose bitcoins to me cheaply if they take them and exercise them (and pay me for the privilege). The noobs can easily list 10 words in this single post on mine, which they don't understand, and therefore call herpderp.

[bixcoin]

Well, I'd get those puts. I think they are reasonable priced now. Still interested?