This needs more precise numbers, dates, and times. On the unverified assumption that theymos (uid 35) has the oldest consistently active, still-active account, I have calculated based on him. In addition to the precise timestamp at or after which theymos may exceed 10k activity, I have also included that at which
theymos will become eligible to exceed one million activity: 24 November 4748 (a Wednesday) at 12:40:00 UTC. Rank: The Mega-Activity Club!(Dang. Now, theymos will make garbage posts whining about how slow it is to rank up.)
The following states the timestamps
at or after which theymos could instantly reach the stated activity level, if his post count exceeds his activity by not less than 14. On that condition, his activity would actually reach the stated level upon his next post at or after that time.
| 1046 | 2010-02-08 20:13:20 (Monday) | Start of activity period 1046 |
| 2010-02-09 12:49:38 (Tuesday) | theymos’ account registered: uid 35 forum birthday! |
| 2010-02-10 06:31:40 (Wednesday) | theymos’ first post |
| 1047 | 2010-02-22 20:20:00 (Monday) | Start of activity period 1047 |
| ... | ... | ... |
| 1254 | 2018-01-30 19:20:00 (Tuesday) | theymos became elgible to reach 2926 activity, his actual current activity, at start of activity period 1254 (1046 + 209 - 1). Calculated to confirm that he thus far has not missed nor underfilled any activity periods. |
| ... | ... | ... |
| 1760 | 2037-06-26 03:33:20 (Friday) | theymos may become eligible to reach 10010 activity at the start of activity period 1760 (1046+715-1). |
| ... | ... | ... |
| 72474 | 4748-11-24 12:40:00 (Wednesday) | theymos may become eligible to reach 1000006 activity at the start of activity period 72474 (1046 + 71429 - 1). |
Activity epochs are as calculated using a little C program I whipped up. All times are given in UTC.
I might have to rename the thread "Who will reach Merit of 10,000 ??" ;)
That’s setting the bar too low.
There are users such as theymos whose leadership status naturally draws (and deserves) floods of merit; theymos will probably reach 10k merit in a matter of months.
Even ignoring such special cases: In my experience, an excellent poster who can devote huge amounts of time to the forum should conservatively expect to average about 20–25 merits per day. That equates to 10k merits in 400–500 days. Unless I need to reduce the time I spend on the forum (as is quite possible), I will be disappointed in myself if I fail to surpass 10k merit before I reach Hero rank.
(It is for this reason I advocate
at least doubling or trebling the merit threshold to achieve Legendary rank. Even for people who can’t devote so much time to posting, to earn 1000 merit in a few years is far too easy to be considered “Legendary”.)
To match the spirit of the original question about 10k activity, it is necessary to kick it up an order of magnitude:
Who will be the first user to achieve 100k merit? Again excluding special cases such as theymos, estimating at the above-stated rate, and rounding very roughly, that should take about 11–14 years.
Bear in mind that theymos will reach his eighth forum-birthday next week, and there should be some other consistently active accounts of comparable age. With that perspective—or really, an
adult perspective, 11–14 years is not terribly long.
(I will be
horrifically disappointed if I fail to achieve one megamerit by the year 2155! —Well, actually not. But it’s a fun thought.)
