Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

Explanation

Looks like we're going up $10-20 (NOT a trend reversal)

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[chessnut]

This is reversal territory. I'd say 50% chance of breaking 400, no more. (today)

[GameStarter]

I guess huobi will stop for the day around 2250/2100
On Bitstamp i think 400 will hold today and we will have a nice bounce to 450/460 after that

[williamj2543]

TBH I really just think we should stop worrying about these short term things, and just hold your coins, relax, and its common knowledge that the price of bitcoin WILL rise, as the demand will only increase when all coins are mined

[GameStarter]

TBH I really just think we should stop worrying about these short term things, and just hold your coins, relax, and its common knowledge that the price of bitcoin WILL rise, as the demand will only increase when all coins are mined

Sure but it's always good to increase his stack of coin

[windjc]

This is reversal territory. I'd say 50% chance of breaking 400, no more. (today)

The problem chessnut - and this what took me until about a week or two ago to realize - is that there just is not enough fresh fiat coming into the markets to stop the bear market. As a result we are just slow and steadily melting right down through all the "buy" orders between here and $380. Its like watching lava hit the ocean. It falls into the ocean and then a plume of steam rises (takes us up to the nearest fib retracement level) and then another piece of lava carries us back down with it.

And its not showing more resistance, its showing less. After we reached 710, we literally have had almost no buy action. No one wants to buy. No one is buying. And traders who set buys at <$420, then can't make the market go up, they just create the steam we see rising up every once in a while.

Bitcoin may not be cheap again until $250 (or less). You need to really brace yourself for the possibility. Otherwise all you are going to catch short term is steam.

[windjc]

I guess huobi will stop for the day around 2250/2100
On Bitstamp i think 400 will hold today and we will have a nice bounce to 450/460 after that

I would LOVE for this to happen. If we hit $405 today all my shorts will close and I can short again at $460.

[virtualfaqs]

This is the first bubble I've observed up close and personal. I'm finding it a teensy bit eerie how closely it's following the script others have laid out...

What's particularly interesting is that many bubbles pop and go to zero. Bitcoin has survived several boom/bust cycles, never going to zero. Indeed each bubble high is higher than the previous, and each bubble low is higher than the previous. It appears, and the hope is, there may be a few more of these cycles before it enters a more solid state on price.

This time is unprecedented bad news though.

There's also unprecedented good news. Its legal status is clearer day by day, which makes it a way less risky investment. Plus the Atm's popping up everywhere, the rise of trustworthy exchanges, business (overstock, etc.) realization that Bitcoin might be profitable for them, etc.

The market seems overly pessimistic at the moment, and prefer to drag the dead dog that China has been since January, rather than rejoice of the many good news.

I wouldn't call it unprecedented good news. Legal status here is clearer, but not in China. Paying taxes on mining is a step backward. Everything else you named was good, but the bad news overshadows it.

That's because there's no official statement in China but there are new developments coming from each China exchange about payment processing. Until there is a statement, I expect to be new lows.

[billyjoeallen]

This is reversal territory. I'd say 50% chance of breaking 400, no more. (today)

The problem chessnut - and this what took me until about a week or two ago to realize - is that there just is not enough fresh fiat coming into the markets to stop the bear market. As a result we are just slow and steadily melting right down through all the "buy" orders between here and $380. Its like watching lava hit the ocean. It falls into the ocean and then a plume of steam rises (takes us up to the nearest fib retracement level) and then another piece of lava carries us back down with it.

And its not showing more resistance, its showing less. After we reached 710, we literally have had almost no buy action. No one wants to buy. No one is buying. And traders who set buys at <$420, then can't make the market go up, they just create the steam we see rising up every once in a while.

Bitcoin may not be cheap again until $250 (or less). You need to really brace yourself for the possibility. Otherwise all you are going to catch short term is steam.

I'm not as bearish as this, but close. Fresh fiat could come in at any time, but it's not likely. Until it does, every bounce is a selling opportunity. We don't know how low it's going to go, but I'm saving MY fresh fiat for AFTER a clear trend reversal. Whales are the only thing that can turn it around. Not even another Cyprus event could change things by itself. I would love to be wrong.

[pjviitas]

This is the first bubble I've observed up close and personal. I'm finding it a teensy bit eerie how closely it's following the script others have laid out...

What's particularly interesting is that many bubbles pop and go to zero. Bitcoin has survived several boom/bust cycles, never going to zero. Indeed each bubble high is higher than the previous, and each bubble low is higher than the previous. It appears, and the hope is, there may be a few more of these cycles before it enters a more solid state on price.

This time is unprecedented bad news though.

There's also unprecedented good news. Its legal status is clearer day by day, which makes it a way less risky investment. Plus the Atm's popping up everywhere, the rise of trustworthy exchanges, business (overstock, etc.) realization that Bitcoin might be profitable for them, etc.

The market seems overly pessimistic at the moment, and prefer to drag the dead dog that China has been since January, rather than rejoice of the many good news.

I wouldn't call it unprecedented good news. Legal status here is clearer, but not in China. Paying taxes on mining is a step backward. Everything else you named was good, but the bad news overshadows it.

That's because there's no official statement in China but there are new developments coming from each China exchange about payment processing. Until there is a statement, I expect to be new lows.

Well put.

Even though Bitcoin is becoming more legitimate...in many ways it's not how anyone imagined it.

[ShroomsKit]

TBH I really just think we should stop worrying about these short term things, and just hold your coins, relax, and its common knowledge that the price of bitcoin WILL rise, as the demand will only increase when all coins are mined

Huh? No it's not common knowledge. As much as i want it to rise there is no guarantee whatsoever that it will rise.

[seleme]

I have a feeling we might see XPM vs USD pair on BTC-e soon. As much as it went too low, this is just not time to pump it and it's third pump in 2 days. And it just got rid of 32 BTC ask wall.

Oh boy, that would be wonderful, I have 45k of it.

[windjc]

This is reversal territory. I'd say 50% chance of breaking 400, no more. (today)

The problem chessnut - and this what took me until about a week or two ago to realize - is that there just is not enough fresh fiat coming into the markets to stop the bear market. As a result we are just slow and steadily melting right down through all the "buy" orders between here and $380. Its like watching lava hit the ocean. It falls into the ocean and then a plume of steam rises (takes us up to the nearest fib retracement level) and then another piece of lava carries us back down with it.

And its not showing more resistance, its showing less. After we reached 710, we literally have had almost no buy action. No one wants to buy. No one is buying. And traders who set buys at <$420, then can't make the market go up, they just create the steam we see rising up every once in a while.

Bitcoin may not be cheap again until $250 (or less). You need to really brace yourself for the possibility. Otherwise all you are going to catch short term is steam.

I'm not as bearish as this, but close. Fresh fiat could come in at any time, but it's not likely. Until it does, every bounce is a selling opportunity. We don't know how low it's going to go, but I'm saving MY fresh fiat for AFTER a clear trend reversal. Whales are the only thing that can turn it around. Not even another Cyprus event could change things by itself. I would love to be wrong.

Speaking of Cyprus, NEO and BEE are the perfect example of the chasm we face from going from amatuer hour (Gox) to legitimate bitcoin business (Circle?).  Those guys at Neo had a great idea, all kinds of motivation and smarts, a great marketing strategy, yet they couldn't even comprehend the need to be well capitalized. I.D.I.O.T.S. More amatuer hour.

We are just going to have to be patient until the men can come and take bitcoin from the boys.

[lynn_402]

There's also unprecedented good news. Its legal status is clearer day by day, which makes it a way less risky investment. Plus the Atm's popping up everywhere, the rise of trustworthy exchanges, business (overstock, etc.) realization that Bitcoin might be profitable for them, etc.

The market seems overly pessimistic at the moment, and prefer to drag the dead dog that China has been since January, rather than rejoice of the many good news.

I wouldn't call it unprecedented good news. Legal status here is clearer, but not in China. Paying taxes on mining is a step backward. Everything else you named was good, but the bad news overshadows it.

That's because there's no official statement in China but there are new developments coming from each China exchange about payment processing. Until there is a statement, I expect to be new lows.

But China is just one country. 200 other countries have potential to be interested in Bitcoin. Plus, even in China there will always be a black market for it even if the exchanges becoming illegal.

I agree that China bought use where we are now, but we don't need them anymore. There's enough interest in the U.S. alone to sustain a price well over 1000$ in just a few months (investors need to wait for the market to stabilize)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

The problem chessnut - and this what took me until about a week or two ago to realize - is that there just is not enough fresh fiat coming into the markets to stop the bear market. As a result we are just slow and steadily melting right down through all the "buy" orders between here and $380. Its like watching lava hit the ocean. It falls into the ocean and then a plume of steam rises (takes us up to the nearest fib retracement level) and then another piece of lava carries us back down with it.

And its not showing more resistance, its showing less. After we reached 710, we literally have had almost no buy action. No one wants to buy. No one is buying. And traders who set buys at <$420, then can't make the market go up, they just create the steam we see rising up every once in a while.

Bitcoin may not be cheap again until $250 (or less). You need to really brace yourself for the possibility. Otherwise all you are going to catch short term is steam.

Sounds like a TraderTimm daily report?

Probably. He's one of several reports I follow. Not an intentional rip off though.

[chessnut]

Probably. He's one of several reports I follow. Not an intentional rip off though.

Im not a rip off at all. My portfolio has grown 10% this year off swings and 1000% from holding.

a lot of binary people tend to misunderstand my points, and don't value strategy at all.

[solex]

I think they knew they needed to be well capitalised, it was unfortunate there capital was stored on We-Funder and Gox.  Again, we see the secondary impacts of the initial failures.

And now LMB will have further impacts down stream. 
The only hope for Neo now is that someone like BitPay comes in and takes it over, which would further centralize BTC and is another nail in the 'libertarian' coffin.

So, wasn't Neo a form of bitcoin bank. You would think they could have held their own capital rather than leave it in the hands of others, and gox, what were they thinking?!

[seleme]

Nice bounce on Huobi.

[GameStarter]

600 coin only at 400 on Stamp.
edit: stamp order book seems different compare to widsom