Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

We need a really big whale or a whole a pod of medium whales. We can't bootstrap a turnaround taking each other's money. Even a Cyprus event would need a catalyst.

It's an axiom that unless something changes, the situation won't change. If $400 support isn't tested on higher volume, there will likely be no trend reversal for months. We'll go sideways. If $400 doesn't hold, we'll plummet until hidden support is found somewhere in the depths. This is gut check time.

What happened July last year, when price went from 65 to 90? What had changed then?
I reckon the only things that had changed were expectations, from "it will go down" to "it will go up". It was enough.

The equivalent of $65 to $90 would be from $400 to only $553 and then five months of mostly trickle-up sideways action before the next rally. That's a realistic possibility, but I'm not certain if it's probable. 

[Jeezy911]

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

after 490 I sold 5 times. Of course it is crazy selling on lower price then you buy, but in such down trend it make sense as your next buy still better.

selling lower than bought. I never understood this concept. I call it losing money.

[BBmodBB]

Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

here i am! i'd love to support the cause, however i've found that the bitcoin community is at least as greedy&scammy as the Wall street bandits~ maybe even worse!!! =O *how many BTC you still got?lolll

[Dr. LY]

If we break $400, we're poo'd.

But if China news is not as bad as feared, and/or news comes out and $400 holds...I'd feel good about chances to reverse the trend.

[billyjoeallen]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

i want to support the cause, however i've found that this community is at least as greedy as the Wall street bandits~ maybe even worse!!! =O *how many you still got?lolll

There's nothing wrong with being greedy. There's something very wrong with stacking the deck and playing a rigged game like Wall Street does. Bitcoin is as free market as it gets. The risks and opportunities are much greater. No Bernanke put. No high frequency front-running. No government bail-outs.

Wall street is full of suckers and sharks. Bitcoin is full of minnows and whales. Degenerate gamblers are found everywhere.

[ShroomsKit]

If we break $400, we're poo'd.

But if China news is not as bad as feared, and/or news comes out and $400 holds...I'd feel good about chances to reverse the trend.

So basically people are panic selling because of a rumour of an event that may take the price down which results in the price going down and when it goes below a certain point the panic sellers will panic sell because the price went down too much. And what do you do when the price goes down a lot? You make sure it goes down even more.
Sounds like a smart group of people.

[Dr. LY]

Explanation

That wall makes me feel a little better.

[BBmodBB]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

i want to support the cause, however i've found that this community is at least as greedy as the Wall street bandits~ maybe even worse!!! =O *how many you still got?lolll

There's nothing wrong with being greedy. There's something very wrong with stacking the deck and playing a rigged game like Wall Street does. Bitcoin is as free market as it gets. The risks and opportunities are much greater. No Bernanke put. No high frequency front-running. No government bail-outs.

Wall street is full of suckers and sharks. Bitcoin is full of minnows and whales. Degenerate gamblers are found everywhere.

four legs good two legs baaaaad >>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5110BLvXd0

;-)

[billyjoeallen]

Cheer up guys Bitcoin still has a lot of gas left in the tank. No way these big time BTC startups don't at least punch back.

Yeah, and people still have guts to call this to be possible 2011 with such difference in fundamentals. I could cry reading that, really.

Possible isn't the same as probable. We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are. We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.

[JorgeStolfi]

This article (dated today) seems to doubt whether the PBoC bank blockade is real:
http://www.techweb.com.cn/internet/2014-04-03/2024364.shtml
However the Google translation is extra garbled
"Bitcoin central bank ban the actual situation is questionable transactions chaos spawned free services [...]"
and I cannot tell whether the reporter knows more than we do, or less.

[octaft]

Some of you people are talking as if you are shocked that it didn't go straight to 20k. You had to realize this was a bubble, it's happened so many times. Those of you who didn't sell on the way up got greedy, and are getting burned for it. Now you face a tough choice: wait it out and hope that this isn't a complete deflation back to $10 or $50 or whatever, or take the profit you have remaining. If you bought at $1000, why in holy hell would you do that? You could have at least waited for a correction -- the first one went down to about $400 (EDIT: okay technically the 2nd one, 1st down to $700, even still the point remains), and even if you didn't catch the bottom, you could have been buying all the way down and gotten in for an average of about $700. Buying that high shows a complete lack of patience. Suck it up that you missed that particular ride, and wait for the pullback.

As for the people on the other side, saying this is the end of bitcoin or bitcoin being a failure or a scam, cut that shit out. Bitcoin does not need to be worth anywhere near 4-5 figures to be a success. The technology itself is amazing whether bitcoin is worth $10 or $10,000.

[Bagatell]

This article (dated today) seems to doubt whether the PBoC bank blockade is real:
http://www.techweb.com.cn/internet/2014-04-03/2024364.shtml
However the Google translation is extra garbled
"Bitcoin central bank ban the actual situation is questionable transactions chaos spawned free services [...]"
and I cannot tell whether the reporter knows more than we do, or less.

So no new fears, but the usual uncertainty and doubt? Thanks. 

[KFR]

[ShroomsKit]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

[JayJuanGee]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

I think that you are correct that currently the exchanges have a disproportionate affect on price; however, I doubt that means that we are fucked.... even a bit... though short-term there seems to be too much manipulation on the exchanges, I am of the sense that solutions are going to develop including some of the decentralized exchange ideas that are already under development... like mastercoin and color coin and nxt..

[aminorex]

Interesting.  Quite off-the cuff distribution estimates.  Maybe getting a wisdom-of-crowds view would help.  Problem is, I mostly agree.

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Fair order of magnitude estimates there, no comment.

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Too high, unless you include flash spikes in this category.  Too many buyers.   Too few coins.  For flash spikes, you really need to put time-bounds on this, because without any time bounds, it seems like it should be more like 60-70%.  The 40% number can then be dialed-in by adjusting the time boundaries of the estimation period.  I'd say 2 years, minimum, to get to 40% probability.

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Rather than make artificial whale/non-whale distinctions, let's assume Zipf distributed bid and ask sizes, Poisson queuing, as is almost certain to actually occur.
If this is the remainder case, then it's just 100% less the items above.

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Let's push it out to two years, in the manner of the historical bear market in BTC.  I'd give this >90% in that case.  But I would assign very different causes.  Namely, ETPs.  Even if there are no U.S. ETPs, there will be in at least one of Hong Kong, UK, Singapore, Frankfurt -- all markets which are accessible to U.S. investors via U.S. based brokers -- with >95% likelihood.  After that, 10k is a cakewalk.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

Agreed on zero.  Not sure movements need leaders, however.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

If you are buy-n-hold, given that you don't time your entry, then you want it to get as ugly as you can withstand, and no more ugly than you can withstand.  That means you successfully maximized return subject to your drawdown tolerance.  The only way to avoid such stress is to dial down risk by strategy change or diverification, as e.g. timing entries and exits.
 

[ElectricMucus]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

Yes the $400 wall is likely to be tested to see if it's fake, real or there's hidden support we can't see. This would be a huge opportunity for a billionaire to accumulate a large position without slippage, but there may not be one or he's lurking in the depths. Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months.  90% probability we'll drop to at least $401 at least once before trend reversal. 50% chance we'll hit $400 and 50% chance we'll go lower.

[aminorex]

Possible isn't the same as probable.

Pessimism isn't wisdom.  If you think there's a reason to assign low probability, that would be helpful to articulate.

We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are.

True.  We do know how well capitalized several of them are, however.  It's very similar to the Internet in the 90s.  Stuff is all over the map.  That kind of diversity is messy, and healthy.  Some degree of confidence that the population will produce survivors is provided by large numbers.

We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.

Ignorance is not risk.  Structural vulnerability is a source of risk, though.  Macro is going to go to hell in a hand-basket.  QE can mask the underlying cancer with a high fever, but the patient is still terminal.  That implies both volatility and a strong upward path for BTC.

The regulatory front is pricing-benign (freedom-malignant), but also it can be routed around.  Uncertainties here are few.

I think you underestimate the strength of the fundamental trend, and the inexorable power of the price attractors.  It's like if there were no reason for BTC to go up, one would have to be invented, just to keep the universe from annihilating itself with a contradiction.

Is there a fair chance of a sustained price dip?  Yes.  Do I think it will happen?  Not beyond my ability to manage the mark-to-market risk by trading the volatility.