Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

hindsight is 20/20...   

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation. 

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

[windjc]

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

I think this is consolidation around 2500. I think we may rest here for a while. Party could be over for today?

[TeeBone]

Been short since the 900's, i just shorted the remainder of my exchange stack. This bitch is goin down, gonna get real ugly if 400 is breached which i think happens in the next week or so. Say hello to the first bitcoin suicides.

[chessnut]

ya know what they say about wedges......

[JayJuanGee]

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

It is like a rewind... to take another hit at the attempt to go down bit.

[JayJuanGee]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

hindsight is 20/20...   

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation. 

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point.  I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours.  I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction.  I'm feeling o.k. either way.

[fonzie]

BillieJean are you really about to start to spam the forum now with your clever bearish thoughts and that
you have seen this downtrend from a mile ago? Really?

[tazcatlicoatlus]

So I wake up and see this price?

My only comment:

o my god thank you for this hahaha

[TeeBone]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

hindsight is 20/20...  

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.  

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point.  I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours.  I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction.  I'm feeling o.k. either way.

That 'dont get left behind' meme is seriously played out, guy. It worked for a while, only suckers buy into that nowadays.

[Pruden]

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).

24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

MtGox days with volume above 150k are few: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Thus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.

Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.

[JayJuanGee]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

hindsight is 20/20...   

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation. 

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

JayJuanGee is still in denial thinking we are gonna get a whale taking us to the moon again....we should see a change of the guard soon in the forum...where alot of the "to the moon brigade" go and nurse their wounds..

YOU appear to be in argument mode.  I am NOT in denial.. I just have a strategy, which I believe that I already explained, and my strategy does NOT have to do with any whale, exactly, but instead a lack of confidence that selling is the right strategy, at this point.  I am sure that there are various others following similar strategies as me.. Personal situations vary based on risk tolerance and the extent to which they may be diversified and budget and when they got in.. etc etc.. I am happy with my strategy in BTC and my overall investment strategy in life... I am NOT putting all my eggs in BTC, if that is what, in part, you seem to have within your assumption(s) about my investment situation. 

So, tell me a little bit about your investment strategy and your financial position and when you got into BTC in order that I can know a bit more regarding your situation and your stake in the BTC arena.

[JayJuanGee]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

hindsight is 20/20...  

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation.  

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

How is the direction not clear to you? There is only one chart showing an uptrend now and that's the four year log chart. The odds of a whale hitting "market buy" at this time is infinitesimal unless he wants to see a short squeeze for shits and giggles and wants to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Whale limit orders near $400 are the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

I'm NOT selling at this point.  I will buy again at $410 and $400... and I will wait to buy if I am sure that it is going down.

We come to varying conclusions about what to do, and mine seems to be different than yours.  I hope you do NOT get left behind if we take off in the upward direction, rather than the downward direction.  I'm feeling o.k. either way.

That 'dont get left behind' meme is seriously played out, guy. It worked for a whle, only suckers buy into that nowadays.

I'm NOT trying to persuade anyone.  I participate in this thread in order to gain insight about my own strategies and to attempt to plan accordingly what would be the best plan forward for me, based on the current market situation and the various probabilities in light of my own holdings, risk aversion and diversification.

Did you want to explain more about your strategy and about your stake in the BTC arena in order that I can get a sense of your reasons for suggesting that I do something other than what I am doing?

[JayJuanGee]

Cute.

[BitDollars]

Dark days but exciting to see which way she swings in next week or so.

[dreamspark]

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).

24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

MtGox days with volume above 150k are few: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Thus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.

Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.

Another thing is to look at the volume in $ terms.

Some of those days with gox with 150k of volume is when the price was like $50 or less. For the same $ amount at todays rate we would only need 19k btc volume...

[mooncake]

Yes.... Fear.... 

[solex]

What does Wallzilla at $400 do if it moves up from here and doesn't come back!??!

[600watt]

Cute.

the driver should capitulate as long he is safe. no messing around with this rodent...


http://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fi1.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FbReP5Wt9a-Y%2Fhqdefault.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DbReP5Wt9a-Y&h=360&w=480&tbnid=EeQUiTdJSyx4CM%3A&zoom=1&docid=C2qzaH2ooDlkkM&ei=0yw9U-yWK8v_ygO0koCADw&tbm=isch&client=opera&iact=rc&dur=292&page=1&start=0&ndsp=30&ved=0CJwBEK0DMBQ

[Davyd05]

OKCoin pause prepaid card, bank transfer prepaid cards are not affected
Dear OKCoin users:
As the third-party payment card dealer just received notification mechanism to suspend payment channel, OKCoin will be at 0:00 on April 3 before stopping prepaid card, bank transfer recharge card unaffected yuan withdrawals are not affected, to give us apologize for the inconvenience.

From google webpage translation for OKCOIN saw a reddit post didnt trust the link so I went searching on my own...more and more it looks like just these third party guys are going to be squeezed out of the chain.

[Pruden]

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

I think you're reading volume the wrong way: The exchange market is very fragmented now, you need to add up the 3 largest for a proxy to what MtGox used to be for its whole history until about a year ago (90% market share).

24-hour volume is 120k in Bitstamp+Bitfinex+BTC-e: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

MtGox days with volume above 150k are few: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-08-01zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Thus volume these days is actually quite large. Last thursday it was 160k by my count.

Therefore, this is the bottom. No one thinks the China blockade is a rumour anymore. Downside is exhausted.

Another thing is to look at the volume in $ terms.

Some of those days with gox with 150k of volume is when the price was like $50 or less. For the same $ amount at todays rate we would only need 19k btc volume...

That's incorrect: Volume in merchandise is a stable reference, unlike currency volume, which would need to grow with price to maintain liquidity relative to market cap.