Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP.  Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Yeah, i'm just a fud spreading bear who wants Bitcoin to go down.

I kind of noticed that you have NOT been that subtle about it... but on the positive have NOT seen you get too viscous about your FUD..   and I suppose the closest that I have seen is your fairly incomprehensible announcement that you are going to put someone on ignore b/c you do NOT appreciate their logic or their failure to answer your inquiry.... .. a little irritating in its own entertaining way... I cannot really take you too serious and your bird dog does give me a vision in that respect.   

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Shorts decreasing in volume on BFX. Longs increasing.

Amazing.

Can you please post the link where BFX short and long volume can be seen?

[magicmexican]

1h macD on china going up, but i expect :

60% - very small mini-rally into the sideways/slow decline
25% - bulltrap into another sudden dump
15% - legit upward movement

[billyjoeallen]

Wisdom is perceived as pessimism by the overly optimistic. I think the risks are higher than you do, but I don't think they are probable. There's no possibility of another flash dip to $400 and quick recovery because we are already there and there is no volume. I am hoping a test of $400 on volume will spring a bear trap, but support may waver if it's seriously tested. If $400 holds, there will be likely be plenty of volatility range trading until the whales who are lurking in the depths give up their hope for cheaper coins and get on board.

Ignorance is not risk, but it prevents you from accurately pricing risk. The future is not only unknown but unknowable. You can be ignorant in this game and still make money if you know that you are ignorant and do what the smart people do. The problem is that it's difficult to tell who's smart until after the fact. 

I have no confidence anymore in my ability to day trade. My margin trade wiped out all my day trading profits for the year and I'm lucky to have not gotten wiped out completely. Fortunately all that money originally came from buying and holding long term, so that's what I'm going back to until I can afford more day trading "tuition". This is the best time to buy in the last four months. Coming from me, that may be a sell signal, what the hell do I know? Don't trade long term on a short term trend and don't trade short term on a long term trend. It cost me $6000 to discover that. I don't want anybody else to make the same mistake. The down trend will continue until all the weak hands are shaken out. Volume tells us that hasn't happened yet, but volume could be misleading.

I'm not bearish right now. I'm not bullish. I just don't fuckin know. I am humbled.

That must have been a serious position to be wiped out on margin? Were you not able to deposit more just to cover than position due the general likelihood that even if its not in the next few weeks we are going back up at some point?

It was my whole stack and it was getting chewed up in swap fees. I couldn't afford to hold it for weeks. In a tie, I would still lose. It was a rookie margin trading mistake. My first fuckin day on Bitfinex and I ran into a buzz saw. I managed to save the lion's share, but losing 6 grand hurts. Margin trading is a different animal. Three ways a smart man can lose money: Liquor, Ladies, and Leverage.

[ShroomsKit]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP.  Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Yeah, i'm just a fud spreading bear who wants Bitcoin to go down.

I kind of noticed that you have NOT been that subtle about it... but on the positive have NOT seen you get too viscous about your FUD..   and I suppose the closest that I have seen is your fairly incomprehensible announcement that you are going to put someone on ignore b/c you do NOT appreciate their logic or their failure to answer your inquiry.... .. a little irritating in its own entertaining way... I cannot really take you too serious and your bird dog does give me a vision in that respect.   

Why would i want to spread fud you idiot! I don't trade. I want Bitcoin to go one direction and that is up.
Welcome to my ignore list.

[mooncake]

This is so so exciting! I expect more fear before a rebound. C'mon, panic!

[bangersdad]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

[windjc]

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

Volume has been missing for weeks. That's the problem. No buyers. You have to have buyers and sellers for volume. Sellers are in attendance.

On that note, I predict we get another healthy bounce between $403-$409.  This will probably send us up again, squeezing a few shorts. I don't think we will get up past $475 (300 Daily EMA now acting like resistance). But where ever we bounce to, we will be coming back down a day or three after that to make a real attack on $400.

Once we go through $400, I expect we get another bounce before $380. Rinse and repeat.

Unless some real buyers show up, we will be going below that before the 15th, in my opinion.

Nice post, Windy

Everyone keeps dismissing me quoting the bid/sum ratio but this is the first port of call for me when inspecting the markets health.  At the moment its about 1:3.3.  Sure, it could change at any moment but the reality is the trend has been there for two months now.  Sellers outnumber buyers. 

Then there are the various EMAs.  I've found for diagnosing a 'chronic cough' the 200 EMA on the 15min chart works well, when we are below that things are bad.  Then the 4hr, 6hr, 1 day, 1 week.  Fuck it, check em all

Then there is sentiment. Then blockchain data.  It's a holistic process.  And even then I'd be loathe to make any predcition other than up/down.

But that process has shown me BTC has been very sick for some months now -- will it get better, perhaps, if I could see into the future I'd be a rich man.  I'm really surprised how some people dismiss data when it doesn't fit their argument.

Anyway, I know I used to rip you because you used to make endless predictions, but I notice you do a lot more qualification and "IMHO" now, perhaps the BTC-beast has humbled you.  It does as it pleases

I wonder how long it will take for some of the noobs here ("$520 in 6hours!") to STFU?

It took me a while to finally wrap my head around how I wanted to profit from bitcoin. I am busy doing a 1000 "real world" things including a career in the entertainment world, so I am been through some bouts of frustration regarding the market moves up and down. I think my perspective has matured and I am not in a position where I really care where the market goes, as long as there is volatility I am happy.

[Tyson95]

Possible isn't the same as probable.

Pessimism isn't wisdom.  If you think there's a reason to assign low probability, that would be helpful to articulate.

We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are.

True.  We do know how well capitalized several of them are, however.  It's very similar to the Internet in the 90s.  Stuff is all over the map.  That kind of diversity is messy, and healthy.  Some degree of confidence that the population will produce survivors is provided by large numbers.

We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.

Ignorance is not risk.  Structural vulnerability is a source of risk, though.  Macro is going to go to hell in a hand-basket.  QE can mask the underlying cancer with a high fever, but the patient is still terminal.  That implies both volatility and a strong upward path for BTC.

The regulatory front is pricing-benign (freedom-malignant), but also it can be routed around.  Uncertainties here are few.

I think you underestimate the strength of the fundamental trend, and the inexorable power of the price attractors.  It's like if there were no reason for BTC to go up, one would have to be invented, just to keep the universe from annihilating itself with a contradiction.

Is there a fair chance of a sustained price dip?  Yes.  Do I think it will happen?  Not beyond my ability to manage the mark-to-market risk by trading the volatility.

Wisdom is perceived as pessimism by the overly optimistic. I think the risks are higher than you do, but I don't think they are probable. There's no possibility of another flash dip to $400 and quick recovery because we are already there and there is no volume. I am hoping a test of $400 on volume will spring a bear trap, but support may waver if it's seriously tested. If $400 holds, there will be likely be plenty of volatility range trading until the whales who are lurking in the depths give up their hope for cheaper coins and get on board.

Ignorance is not risk, but it prevents you from accurately pricing risk. The future is not only unknown but unknowable. You can be ignorant in this game and still make money if you know that you are ignorant and do what the smart people do. The problem is that it's difficult to tell who's smart until after the fact. 

I have no confidence anymore in my ability to day trade. My margin trade wiped out all my day trading profits for the year and I'm lucky to have not gotten wiped out completely. Fortunately all that money originally came from buying and holding long term, so that's what I'm going back to until I can afford more day trading "tuition". This is the best time to buy in the last four months. Coming from me, that may be a sell signal, what the hell do I know? Don't trade long term on a short term trend and don't trade short term on a long term trend. It cost me $6000 to discover that. I don't want anybody else to make the same mistake. The down trend will continue until all the weak hands are shaken out. Volume tells us that hasn't happened yet, but volume could be misleading.

I'm not bearish right now. I'm not bullish. I just don't fuckin know. I am humbled.

Yeah I know the feeling, I've managed to lose 35 BTC between Gox and China news. Good luck on your future endeavors and hopefully you can recover your losses.

[N12]

It always feels like I read every one of ShroomKit's posts sometime before.

Sheep, idiots, panic-selling, ignore list.

[JayJuanGee]

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct?

2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400.

I was thinking 2100'ish too, but last time we had like tons more volume and tons more of a momentum. I would be surprised that just the Huobi announcement would be enough to get us there, but i am not ruling it out.

Also I think if Huobi hits 2100 then without a doubt we are going below $400, no questions asked.

2100 surely seems like a long way off... b/c we are currently at 2550 and it was down to a low of 2438 a couple of hours ago..

[JayJuanGee]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP.  Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Yeah, i'm just a fud spreading bear who wants Bitcoin to go down.

I kind of noticed that you have NOT been that subtle about it... but on the positive have NOT seen you get too viscous about your FUD..   and I suppose the closest that I have seen is your fairly incomprehensible announcement that you are going to put someone on ignore b/c you do NOT appreciate their logic or their failure to answer your inquiry.... .. a little irritating in its own entertaining way... I cannot really take you too serious and your bird dog does give me a vision in that respect.   

Why would i want to spread fud you idiot! I don't trade. I want Bitcoin to go one direction and that is up.
Welcome to my ignore list.

That comment is hilarious... when you think about it.... a dog-bird with a temper tantrum.     

[spooderman]

So I wake up and see this price?

My only comment:

[JayJuanGee]

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

so your not selling except when there may be some obvious downward action? what do you think the last couple of months have been?!  

hindsight is 20/20...   

Even though I can see you are missing my point, I will provide further explanation. 

I am NOT going to lock in losses, when the direction of the market is NOT clear to me and when my whole portfolio happens to be in the red.

I can already anticipate that you are going to want to do battle with this - b/c you seem to be assuming that the price direction was obvious.. which it was NOT.

[billyjoeallen]

Only two kind of buyers right now: people betting on a short squeeze and people buying and holding long term.  When we are this close to major support and the down trend is this strong, any spike is likely to get slammed back down. The trend won't reverse unless support is breached or defended with massive volume.

[JayJuanGee]

It always feels like I read every one of ShroomKit's posts sometime before.

Sheep, idiots, panic-selling, ignore list.

I have only seen ignore list about three times, and one of them was me, and each time it makes nearly no sense that he placed someone on an ignore list that had been attempting to be responsive to him.  Anyhow, to be quasi-positive about it, at least his posts are fairly short, so they are NOT too time consuming to get the gist of the FUD...

[spooderman]

I got bids placed all the way down to the 60s.

Never wanna miss an opportunity like those guys on btc-e had when it suddenly touched 100 a while back.

I'm going down with the ship!

[windjc]

Only two kind of buyers right now: people betting on a short squeeze and people buying and holding long term.  When we are this close to major support and the down trend is this strong, any spike is likely to get slammed back down. The trend won't reverse unless support is breached or defended with massive volume.

I agree, but actually there is a third buyer - shorts covering for profit. Short margin is steadily decreasing today, making a short squeeze less likely. For instance, I am short a bunch, about half of which were triggered in profit taking. The other half is sitting there well in the profit. It was take a rally of epic proportions to squeeze me right now.  In fact, if we rally for a day from here I will reload the boat when it starts losing momentum.

[magicmexican]

yawn another small bulltrap, this is getting old

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation