Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Guinpen]

I don't get what's happening. There was a brief spike yesterday around midnight (Europe), then it fell back down during the day, and it's up to 460 again at the moment. All while the Chinese are supposedly either sleeping or on holiday.

Does the collective wisdom of this thread (not being sarcastic here) predict another fall to ~440 in the next 24 hours, or are we slowly chooing to the moon already?

[LMGTFY]

It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

OK, but... this graph extends to September, and I'm still not seeing the resistance being tested after the initial (post-dip) test: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/DJ/2006/9/linewchart.html. (My interest in this is that I've always assumed diagonal support lines were "special cases" and assumptions are always worth reassessing - so an example showing that diagonals behave like horizontals would be a good start for my reassessment).

[virtualfaqs]

Martingalers lose their entire stash all the time on just-dice.com.   I'm not sure what the record is for losing 50/50 bets in a row, but it is something very high like 15+.

must be more

go in the casino and u have about 0.003% chance to lose 15 in a row and thats not a very small chance

Is there a betting limit there?

[jonoiv]

It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

OK, but... this graph extends to September, and I'm still not seeing the resistance being tested after the initial (post-dip) test: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/DJ/2006/9/linewchart.html. (My interest in this is that I've always assumed diagonal support lines were "special cases" and assumptions are always worth reassessing - so an example showing that diagonals behave like horizontals would be a good start for my reassessment).

I'm not really arguing the case that much that the resistance line will become a support line.  Just saying there have been examples in the past.  I'm happy to buy if we break this line strongly.  

But that resistance line that has been there since December, it's still valid.  And all exchanges are pushing against it now.

As the trend is slowly downwards the longer it touches it without breaking through the more, chance there is for a further sell off.  Why would someone watch their coins slowly devalue?  And the MACD will also be a factor the longer we sit on this line without breaking it.  

[aminorex]

Why would someone watch their coins slowly devalue?

Because they understand that the future expected value of their coins is higher than the present exchange value.

The implication that holders of coins have no drawdown tolerance seems counterfactual.  If I had no drawdown tolerance, I would never buy any bitcoin in the first place.  I would, therefore, have no bitcoins to sell.

Unlike the stock market, it is not possible to short bitcoin naked.

[TERA]

Look at this chart and tell me how many times a single move on huobi jumps up more than 25%.

[jonoiv]

Why would someone watch their coins slowly devalue?

Because they understand that the future expected value of their coins is higher than the present exchange value.

The implication that holders of coins have no drawdown tolerance seems counterfactual.  If I had no drawdown tolerance, I would never buy any bitcoin in the first place.  I would, therefore, have no bitcoins to sell.

Unlike the stock market, it is not possible to short bitcoin naked.

Yes but they could sell off now, knowing the price is dropping at a minimum of 2 CNY per hour.  On Huobi with no fees, that's a no brainer.

[billyjoeallen]

Everyone is expecting a big move up or down. I think it's just as likely that we'll go largely sideways for a painful amount of time. That would be the worst possible scenario for me personally so of course i think it'll prolly happen.

[molecular]

Everyone is expecting a big move up or down. I think it's just as likely that we'll go largely sideways for a painful amount of time. That would be the worst possible scenario for me personally so of course i think it'll prolly happen.

market moving in direction of most pain? quite possible.

[fonzie]

Thanks for building up buy walls on BItstamp. It´s harvesting time now. Time to bring the dollars in.

[EuroTrash]

The four small red candles in Huobi's 15m chart are the likely cause that made someone surrender 500+ coins on Stamp... Huobi seems to be able to lead even while sleeping.

[jonoiv]

Why would someone watch their coins slowly devalue?

Because they understand that the future expected value of their coins is higher than the present exchange value.

The implication that holders of coins have no drawdown tolerance seems counterfactual.  If I had no drawdown tolerance, I would never buy any bitcoin in the first place.  I would, therefore, have no bitcoins to sell.

Unlike the stock market, it is not possible to short bitcoin naked.

Im not saying there is not a chance to make it through.  At the moment i'm betting we don't,  when the Chinese wake up in a few hours, we'll know.  

One thing I think will happen is the volume will be around 25k BTC in the hour between 1-2 am UTC.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

In November/December, before the PBoC decrees, he had 50-100 kBTC/day, almost the same daily volume in BTC that Huobi has now (and maybe more, if counted in USD or CNY).  Was he faking it then?

[igorr]

Now is the holidays is in China.

[mmitech]

people, it is about time to stop trusting huobi moves and book order, remember last time when someone dumped Litecoin all the way to 1 RMB ?  this is what is called phantom orders; you can see them on the book order but once you initiate a market sell order you get fucked, it is just then when you find out that you were selling to a very thin bookoreder.

also note that all trades are exaggerated, many trades happen at once, I've never seen only one trade getting executed, it has to always few trades at once, even at the slowest days when there is no volume in other exchanges at all, Huobi somehow have the biggest volume.


and BTW, the 0% fee trick is just a cover, and it is not just Huobi, also OKcoin, FXBTC, the only Chinese exchange that I would trust is BTCChina, their volume seems realistic,

[fonzie]

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

In November/December, before the PBoC decrees, he had 50-100 kBTC/day, almost the same daily volume in BTC that Huobi has now (and maybe more, if counted in USD or CNY).  Was he faking it then?

Please stop making sense.
People in here already stated that Bobby Lee is one of the most creditable person in Bitcoinworld(now that Mark K. is temporarly not available)

[mmitech]

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

In November/December, before the PBoC decrees, he had 50-100 kBTC/day, almost the same daily volume in BTC that Huobi has now (and maybe more, if counted in USD or CNY).  Was he faking it then?

Bitstamp had about the same volume, forget about December/November.... because at that rally all exchanges had huge volume even the new small ones.

[fonzie]

people, it is about time to stop trusting huobi moves and book order, remember last time when someone dumped Litecoin all the way to 1 RMB ?  this is what is called phantom orders; you can see them on the book order but once you initiate a market sell order you get fucked, it is just then when you find out that you were selling to a very thin bookoreder.

also note that all trades are exaggerated, many trades happen at once, I've never seen only one trade getting executed, it has to always few trades at once, even at the slowest days when there is no volume in other exchanges at all, Huobi somehow have the biggest volume.


and BTW, the 0% fee trick is just a cover, and it is not just Huobi, also OKcoin, FXBTC, the only Chinese exchange that I would trust is BTCChina, their volume seems realistic,

At first i thought that the big orders 300+BTC have been used for traditional pump and dump moves. But as you noted i have quite often noticed that when a sudden market order gets executed they do not get touched and magically dissapear. That´s way worse than the classical build a buy wall -> drive the price up(or the other way round).

[Tyson95]

I'm expecting a big rally after the game of thrones season premier.

[jonoiv]

Now is the holidays is in China.

Ohh yep.. I forgot about that.

scratch what i said about 25K / hour volumes when china wakes up on Huobi