Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Martingalers lose their entire stash all the time on just-dice.com.   I'm not sure what the record is for losing 50/50 bets in a row, but it is something very high like 15+.

must be more

go in the casino and u have about 0.003% chance to lose 15 in a row and thats not a very small chance

[dreamspark]

Hello all, long time without posting here. Are the bears gone finally? Time for bulls to show up?

I'm feeling a little bullish...

Quite the opposite, some of our most hardened bulls have turned bearish at the strangest of time.

[aminorex]

Rpiella sounding statement, true none the less

rpietila statements are among the most reliable guides for the perplexed seeking to profit from btc prices.  they do require patience.

[jonoiv]

Care to explain the logic you used to lay those lines?

that really made me lol.

Edit.  It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.

It's only been above it only once for any sustained period,  after the Gox made the bankrupt statement.  the price rested on it before dropping under it again after the next "China Ban" news.  

As you will notice, it's there again but fails to get through it.  Im not saying it won't break it again,  but there is strong resistance on this line.

If it breaks this line, you will see a strong bullish surge.  like wise if it fails, then, there will be another sell off.   (small or big)

[EuroTrash]

Comparing 1D volume trends Huobi vs Stamp, it looks like this rally is, once more, Chinese led.

[Hypnoise]

Hello all, long time without posting here. Are the bears gone finally? Time for bulls to show up?

I'm feeling a little bullish...

sure, but the bull at the moment appears to be rather unhealthy thin

[nrd525]

The volume on stamp is tiny.  it's not big on btc-e.

Like it or not Huobi and Chinese exchanges are dictating the price movements.  There are plenty that don't want to sleep on BTC.  it's 21:37 in China as i write. As others have pointed out it's a national holiday.

I think there is about a 3 hour window before a bigger dump starts.  

Just my opinion...

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

[aminorex]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

[aminorex]

Descending bounds back to 26 Mar have now been broken (reset).

[octaft]

Rpiella sounding statement, true none the less

rpietila statements are among the most reliable guides for the perplexed seeking to profit from btc prices.  they do require patience.

I would recommend the perplexed not trade before I recommend they take advice from some random on the internet.

[billyjoeallen]

Volume is nonexistent.

[EuroTrash]

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

It likely is. That is why I look at how it is trending not what the absolute numbers are.

[jonoiv]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

[aminorex]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

[EuroTrash]

Volume is nonexistent.

The market makers are sleeping. It's middle of the night in their timezone...

[jonoiv]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

maybe you need some glasses!

[LMGTFY]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

maybe you need some glasses!

Me too, I guess There's one example of a diagonal, and the only repeated tests are on the support side - resistance is only tested once. What am I missing?

[igorr]

15.april coming soon

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/china-clamps-down-on-bitcoin/story-e6frg90f-1226871648275

[jonoiv]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

maybe you need some glasses!

Me too, I guess There's one example of a diagonal, and the only repeated tests are on the support side - resistance is only tested once. What am I missing?

It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

[aminorex]

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

Actually, I'm not asking for an example.  I'm asking for a rationale.  The article does not provide one.

You could construct a rationale from a collection of examples, using statistical reasoning.  I am not aware of this ever having been done successfully for the pattern which you are drawing upon.

A mere configuration of lines has no predictive value.  A configuration of lines which illustrates the potential for a rationale to be applicable in a given case does have predictive value.  It would be based on reality.  The certainty of it might even be measurable.