Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

There's just something off about this rally. I understood the rally after silk road closed.  I understood the rally after Gox closed. I don't understand balls to the wall in China when The PBoC has not reversed policy or no major exchange has closed. A market that suddenly changes direction without a retest of support and news that amounts to a loophole that may or may not be closed?

To use Alan Greenspan's term, it looks like "irrational exuberance".  Demand that appears this suddenly can disappear just as suddenly. Supply that can disappear suddenly can reappear suddenly.

Why such confusion? Did you really understand the decline from 600 to 340 in face of nothing but positive news and developments? To me, that was the irrational part. The exuberance starts when we cross the exponential trendline somewhere around 2000.

The market is too thinly traded to be trusted.

Nothing is real except the bitcoins you have in an address whose key is offline-generated by you.

[1714192018]

1714192018

[1714192018]

1714192018

[ShroomsKit]

I think there was a covert bear mission to jump onto a moving train and detach the engine. Now all the bitcoiners are unknowingly stuck in cars that are just drifting down the track. But they don't know because they're busy with champagne and disco lights.

Then they've done their job.  This market doesn't exist to make us money. We get paid to reduce volatility.

Did you recently take up TM?  I think I have identified your mantra.

Come on man. 1 rumour from China and we'll be back at 350 in no time.

[chessnut]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

told you guys this is not safe to trade, we will be going up on waves till the end of this month then the price will be somehow stable for some time (couple of weeks).

and good morning

The EW traders are making a killing right now. this is a traders safe haven. never a better time to trade than when the crowd turns.

[QuestionAuthority]

[seleme]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

told you guys this is not safe to trade, we will be going up on waves till the end of this month then the price will be somehow stable for some time (couple of weeks).

and good morning

Meh, I don't care really, easy come, easy gone, got caught at wrong foot, fair play.

I do hate though when I make bad timed decisions in 30 seconds or so, I've done at lest 3 such today that could cut at least half of my losses.

Alts saving me again, already pulled back 1 BTC profit from DGC rise.

[billyjoeallen]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

I don't think they were bad trades. Somebody with an enormous amount of fiat and coins made trades designed to crush small traders.  There are forces at work I don't understand and I'm not back in the market until I understand them.

It's not bad TA. My TA always sucked. I read a story about Doyle Brunsun folding a full house Aces over jacks because some betting was going on in the game he didn't understand. It turned out he made the right choice.

There seems to be massive insider trading. Not skimming. It seems like someone is trying to take it all, to corner the market. A market traded as thinly as Bitcoin (relative to market cap) is vulnerable.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ejinte]

There's just something off about this rally. I understood the rally after silk road closed.  I understood the rally after Gox closed. I don't understand balls to the wall in China when The PBoC has not reversed policy or no major exchange has closed. A market that suddenly changes direction without a retest of support and news that amounts to a loophole that may or may not be closed?

To use Alan Greenspan's term, it looks like "irrational exuberance".  Demand that appears this suddenly can disappear just as suddenly. Supply that can disappear suddenly can reappear suddenly.

Why such confusion? Did you really understand the decline from 600 to 340 in face of nothing but positive news and developments? To me, that was the irrational part. The exuberance starts when we cross the exponential trendline somewhere around 2000.

The market is too thinly traded to be trusted.

Nothing is real except the bitcoins you have in an address whose key is offline-generated by you.

rpietila  you've been into bitcoins for a long time, what are your thoughts on the mastercoin protocol?

[seleme]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

told you guys this is not safe to trade, we will be going up on waves till the end of this month then the price will be somehow stable for some time (couple of weeks).

and good morning

The EW traders are making a killing right now. this is a traders safe haven. never a better time to trade than when the crowd turns.

Bullshit. EW traders on TradingView are bearish last 10 hours at least and many of them caught with shorts around 500.

So called EW prophet DanV is spouting his usual waves bullshit all the time, just to rearrange when he misses it completely. He caught one good long trade prediction (Bitcoin failing to 500$) and makes 20 bad daily, yet people look at him like he is from other planet.

Fibs could make some money last few days but only real money really could be made by people who bought in 300s and 400s as this rise was just mental and buying waves were coming out of nowhere and when nobody expected them.

[gizmoh]

I believe we've just hit the top.

There was a lot of struggle in that pump

I agree, this current pump has no follow through. Soon it'l retrace back to 500, afterwards  sub 460 to test some support.
This rally will end soon as it cannot be sustained by enough bids (less than $11 million bids) and has been fueled mainly by china and previous sellers who believes 340 as bottom and getting back in. To summarize, bitcoiners have short memory about the situation with pboc and is currently blinded by 'fear' of missing the fantomatic moon train.

[Phillis]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

it happens man, just evaluate the fall to 340 and the rise so that you learn from what was going on. Personally, I stepped out when it dropped to 440 for a loss due to the coming china news and I felt uncomfortable holding any more due to the uncertainty. I missed out on the rise from 340 to 400 because I was asleep at the time and I obviously could have profited more.

[seleme]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

I'm in the same club. I took my principal away long time ago, but still! Almost half of my gains in coins since December have been wiped.

I don't think they were bad trades. Somebody with an enormous amount of fiat and coins made trades designed to crush small traders.  There are forces at work I don't understand and I'm not back in the market until I understand them.

It's not bad TA. My TA always sucked. I read a story about Doyle Brunsun folding a full house Aces over jacks because some betting was going on in the game he didn't understand. It turned out he made the right choice.

There seems to be massive insider trading. Not skimming. It seems like someone is trying to take it all, to corner the market. A market traded as thinly as Bitcoin (relative to market cap) is vulnerable.

It's almost impossible to trade this. I got caught with shorts while I was sleeping and when price was 450 (my shorts in 480s at next Fibs retracement, it was almost safe trade at that point) and all trading I done after that was to try to save that trade. Made hundreds in the meantime in many small trades but failed to cover at some small loss on dip to 490$ as 460-470 look so certain by all TA and orderbooks, just for some mental buying to occur each few hours at China.

This is some big insider buying and trend reversal or someone wants to get out at higher point. They bought lot of coins so first looks more probable. Then again, I'm still not feeling comfortable with all this China shit, you never know when they'll hit from either side. They really have managed to cool me from Bitcoin. I hope they'll pump this shit to the moon soon so I could take some big money and take a nice rest.

[Adrian-x]

WTF...

Has anyone been watching the alt market it's going crazy. http://coinmarketcap.com/

Check out the "order by % change "

I'm not sure what to do?

[billyjoeallen]

There's just something off about this rally. I understood the rally after silk road closed.  I understood the rally after Gox closed. I don't understand balls to the wall in China when The PBoC has not reversed policy or no major exchange has closed. A market that suddenly changes direction without a retest of support and news that amounts to a loophole that may or may not be closed?

To use Alan Greenspan's term, it looks like "irrational exuberance".  Demand that appears this suddenly can disappear just as suddenly. Supply that can disappear suddenly can reappear suddenly.

Why such confusion? Did you really understand the decline from 600 to 340 in face of nothing but positive news and developments? To me, that was the irrational part. The exuberance starts when we cross the exponential trendline somewhere around 2000.

The market is too thinly traded to be trusted.

Nothing is real except the bitcoins you have in an address whose key is offline-generated by you.

You're damn right about that last part. The Confusion is China China China China, China China China oh, nevermind. Huh? The decline AND the snap back were irrational.

Why is everybody suddenly so sure a four month bear market is over? Yes prices dropped ridiculously low, but there are periods of consolidation between rallies. Even if you think the four year log trend is ongoing, those consolidation periods are part of that trend line.

[TERA]

[seleme]

I made so many bad decisions today it's not even funny. I can't fucking believe that I managed to lose some money on this drop to 340 and rise up instead of making a killing.

it happens man, just evaluate the fall to 340 and the rise so that you learn from what was going on. Personally, I stepped out when it dropped to 440 for a loss due to the coming china news and I felt uncomfortable holding any more due to the uncertainty. I missed out on the rise from 340 to 400 because I was asleep at the time and I obviously could have profited more.

I know mate, I had worse days but many more better, it's part of the game. In a week or two I'll forget it, specially if some good things happen. As much as I missed on dozens of coins at 300s, I hope they won't stop at this and will bring this baby to the moon, those 4000$ I lost in last few days would be well forgotten then

The strange thing is that I am used to trade alts vs btc and I never felt anything when I would lose few btcs who were worth even more dollars. Guess that's that psychological view of only few of something, feels more bitter when it's 4000 of something even if it is the same amount on the end.

[gizmoh]

We are at the mercy of chinese traders. They get the news firsthand and sets the Trend, some bots that follows CNY movements eats part of the cake.
That is why pricing has been unpredictable for westerners. And I am totally uncomfortable with that. Until Huobi/okcoin gets shut down by PBOC or move out of china, I'm keeping my Fiat out of this gamble.

[seleme]

WTF...

Has anyone been watching the alt market it's going crazy. http://coinmarketcap.com/

Check out the "order by % change "

I'm not sure what to do?

All bloody alts on btc-e exploded except XPM where I am loaded. Some sucker blocked it whole day with 40 BTC wall.

[TERA]

The alts are Chinese manipulated even more than Bitcoin, so I don't want to touch them just in case China disappears again. The reason I still trade Bitcoin under these circumstances is because I actually I have a bullish view about its future,  but I can't say the same about the current altcoins. Also, I have to hold coins on an altcoin exchange in order to trade them, compounding risk.

[ErisDiscordia]

You said yourself we are all China's bitch. Here's something that just popped into my head:

Whacky conspiracy theory:

Price is being manipulated by the PBoC to accumulate a large position for the purpose of adding it to it's gold and foreign currency reserves. The ultimate goal is to make the renminbi a major world currency, possibly the world's reserve currency.

evidence for said whacky theory:

1. stochastics are funny.

2. Public airing of pro-bitcoin feature on public television followed by outright hostile words and policy, followed by...uncertainty"

evidence against said whacky theory:

1. That's the beauty of conspiracy theories. The lack of evidence merely shows you how deep it goes!

discuss.

I have written about this theory before:

The covert US/China Bitcoin race

Premise: The governments of the US, China and possibly others are currently actively engaged in a race to secure the biggest possible amount of Bitcoins for themselves. This is the result of the realization on their part, that cryptographic digital decentralized ledgers are what will replace the current monetary system, which is quite clearly nearing its expiration date. At this moment in time, the governments are trying to figure out a way how to tilt this recent development in their favor, by devising schemes to tax and regulate existing ledgers, or create their own, government-backed ledgers. But because the public sentiment of distrust against established institutions is large and growing, the scenario that the governments will be forced to participate in Bitcoin is plausible and worth hedging against. Thus the race to secure the biggest amount of the current dominant crypto-ledger pie for themselves.

Timeline:
October 2013 - FBI shuts down Silk road and captures its operator, known as Dread Pirate Roberts. This has been planned for months and delayed until Roberts getting fake IDs with obvious intent to travel outside of the country forces their hand. The main objective has never been the shutdown of Silk Road (even though that is a nice side benefit by itself). The objective was to acquire a large stash of Bitcoin without driving up the price and alerting everyone to what was happening. In one swoop, they capture one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin and thanks to their months long surveillance, they manage to get their hands on about 150 000BTC. This in turn forces the hand of the Chinese government, which starts to accumulate coins instantly after the news of the DPR seizure is out, running up the price. The race is officially on.

November 2013 The US, after securing its initial position of Bitcoin, holds a series of senate hearings, with very positive rhetoric, with even Ben Bernanke chiming in to give praise to the idea of digital currencies. This is an attempt, to force the anticipated exponential growth curve of Bitcoin, encouraging hoarding and thus pricing out the Chinese out of the market. Chinese interests respond by trying to crash the Bitoin market while the hearings are underway, but they don't succeed in starting a panic.

December 2013 Even though the Chinese have been buying in huge amounts, they decide they can't risk further immediate price rises. They try to crash the market again, this time successfully, by a combination of an ambiguous official statement and a concurrent huge sell-off.

would be nice if you graced my thread about conspiracies with your thoughts. It's been gathering dust, even though it's such a fun topic and this is the speculation forum!