Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

Lol. Going to plan? Your first image support line was breached dude.

what? I just drew that chart.... I put the line under the close not the wick.....

I specified, read it, I said wave IV will turn around within 510 -480 you have my word.

[1714811012]

1714811012

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.

Since 2008 *everyone* has been devaluing their currency.   But its not competitive devaluation, it's co-operative devaluation, an open conspiracy of central banks.  By co-ordination they avoid excessive relative slippage, which avoids most of the political problems with inflating away debt -- the rest are solved by simply funneling money to the principal debtors.  The ECB, because of its nominal mandate, has a really hard time monetizing debt on its own, but it can accomplish this through the back door by coordinated easing.  I don't know what is the quid pro quo they are giving to the U.S., but I'm sure the tab will come due sooner or later.  This kinda, sorta works as long as all the majors are co-operating.  It has been brutal for emerging markets, and it may fall apart if one of the majors defects badly, but it does kick the can another lap down the road.

[solex]

I got my bid orders on 432

maybe it's a bit low??

Aa an EW analyst, 432 is in the range of wave one. if you ask me we will probably never see 431 again. but dont take my word for it. you need to have a breakout plan if you cant wait for your own targets.

432 is a bet on the resumption of the downtrend or a really bad news flash crash. 442 is a better bet and just may get hit leaving the uptrend in play, but only if 476 is roundly thrashed first with a sustained period of trading.

[windjc]

Lol. Going to plan? Your first image support line was breached dude.

what? I just drew that chart.... I put the line under the close not the wick.....

I specified, read it, I said wave IV will turn around within 510 -480 you have my word.

Your first chart showed pennant supports lines above $500.

I don't care that you said you thought it could go as low as $480. That's not what your chart shows.

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

[chessnut]

Lol. Going to plan? Your first image support line was breached dude.

what? I just drew that chart.... I put the line under the close not the wick.....

I specified, read it, I said wave IV will turn around within 510 -480 you have my word.

Your first chart showed pennant supports lines above $500.

I don't care that you said you thought it could go as low as $480. That's not what your chart shows.

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

My chart showed two alternate situations, a wedge, or an ABC pattern. if the wedge was broken, I said it would floor above 480. It says on the chart! read it!

Just watch as your bear flag munts its self......

[Davyd05]

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

maybe you most of all.

[windjc]

Lol. Going to plan? Your first image support line was breached dude.

what? I just drew that chart.... I put the line under the close not the wick.....

I specified, read it, I said wave IV will turn around within 510 -480 you have my word.

Frankly, your new found infatuation with EW is a bit over the top. You are acting like it is the holy grail - a common newbie mistake by new EW analysts.

You are completely ignoring factors like volume. You are also ignoring the fact that we are still in a down trend. Breaking a trendline for 2 days on 1 exchange only, is not a new market condition.

I'm pretty sure we are NOT going to be at your target of 580 anytime in the next few days.  However, 440 is actually a possibility. All it needs is a few more bank account closures to put it over the edge.

I still thing a retracement down to at least 2980 is going to happen before anything much else does.

[Davyd05]

My chart showed two alternate situations, a wedge, or an ABC pattern. if the wedge was broken, I said it would floor above 480. It says on the chart! read it!

don't even bother with people, you nailed the call on dropping back in to the 480 range and bouncing. They want to be ignorant, or search for a reason to bicker, just hand em the ignore and keep up the nice EW analysis

[windjc]

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

maybe you most of all.

Interesting. What is it you think I want to see. I called the top around 530 and missed it by 10. I called a retracement to 480 and missed it by 6.

Houbi bounced weakly off of this last leg down. Now it is edging up again on very very very low volume, just like it does almost every day when it is in a up trend. In the next 3-7 hours, larger money will trade on Houbi just like it did the last 4 days. And that larger money will decide if this bear flag turns into a rocket ship or into another leg down.

[BitAddict]

Rinse and repeat 

[windjc]

So far this is playing out EXACTLY like 24 hours ago. 3200 then back below 3000.

[chessnut]

My chart showed two alternate situations, a wedge, or an ABC pattern. if the wedge was broken, I said it would floor above 480. It says on the chart! read it!

don't even bother with people, you nailed the call on dropping back in to the 480 range and bouncing. They want to be ignorant, or search for a reason to bicker, just hand em the ignore and keep up the nice EW analysis

... Cheers Davy. Im on a roll. Ive been wrong before, and I will be wrong again, but so few people can see the validity of what Im doing. makin money and thats good enough for me. Cheers.

[JayJuanGee]

Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down. (Still HODLING since $390)

The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side.  Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?

You are so right about the importance of volume but I am just not sure that MtGox is a valid benchmark anymore. Peter's theory that they lost most of their coins in the 2011 hack would imply that a lot of their 2012/2013 orderbook depth was, shall we say, "inflated".

Inflated only b/c the vast majority of users did NOT know that the BTC was NOT there...  Probably, the fact that the BTC was NOT there was only known by a few in management.  Accordingly, the behavior of the users would have been the same as if the BTC was there the user's behavior at GOX was mostly affected by Gox restrictions that were placed upon their withdrawals which likely inspired quite a bit less of less confidence in GOX... but the ones that stayed on GOX continued to engage in trading that would have been more or less normal within that concept of believing that the coins were the real deal..

[JayJuanGee]

Whys is no one mentioning the obvious bear flag on Houbi. Its literally waving at us.

My prediction for today: Houbi goes up to 3200 and everyone on this forum shouts "MOON MF!!!!!".

Then it drops back down to 2980.

I'm feeling pretty good about this one.

Since you are feeling pretty good about it, we can quote you... he he he ..

I am NOT selling.. HODL for me.. but I may buy if the later part of your prediction comes true (otherwise I am kind of bought out at this price range)

[Davyd05]

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

maybe you most of all.

Interesting. What is it you think I want to see. I called the top around 530 and missed it by 10. I called a retracement to 480 and missed it by 6.

Houbi bounced weakly off of this last leg down. Now it is edging up again on very very very low volume, just like it does almost every day when it is in a up trend. In the next 3-7 hours, larger money will trade on Houbi just like it did the last 4 days. And that larger money will decide if this bear flag turns into a rocket ship or into another leg down.

I called the bottom on the last drop, I don't think that gives me the right to tell the next person calling a bottom he's bonkers...as far as I can tell you're displeased that he predicts a bounce off of 480?

[Davyd05]

My chart showed two alternate situations, a wedge, or an ABC pattern. if the wedge was broken, I said it would floor above 480. It says on the chart! read it!

don't even bother with people, you nailed the call on dropping back in to the 480 range and bouncing. They want to be ignorant, or search for a reason to bicker, just hand em the ignore and keep up the nice EW analysis

... Cheers Davy. Im on a roll. Ive been wrong before, and I will be wrong again, but so few people can see the validity of what Im doing. makin money and thats good enough for me. Cheers.

Cheers, don't get me wrong people can't debate with you and debate your calls.. but when it' shifts to an attempt to bicker it loses the positive side to sharing new ideas.

[JayJuanGee]

I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.

Since 2008 *everyone* has been devaluing their currency.   But its not competitive devaluation, it's co-operative devaluation, an open conspiracy of central banks.  By co-ordination they avoid excessive relative slippage, which avoids most of the political problems with inflating away debt -- the rest are solved by simply funneling money to the principal debtors.  The ECB, because of its nominal mandate, has a really hard time monetizing debt on its own, but it can accomplish this through the back door by coordinated easing.  I don't know what is the quid pro quo they are giving to the U.S., but I'm sure the tab will come due sooner or later.  This kinda, sorta works as long as all the majors are co-operating.  It has been brutal for emerging markets, and it may fall apart if one of the majors defects badly, but it does kick the can another lap down the road.

Yeah.. I never thought about it like that... the reason no one of these big countries get in trouble is that they are doing this together.. and the people of each and all of  the countries are screwed and the small countries are screwed even more.  So even if we can buy a bitcoin for $10K, the $10K is not going to be worth too much (if they are doubling the supply of $$ every several years).  This all seems to justify that BTC may go up even higher and faster.... I sure hope so b/c floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting.. even though it is better than floating at $420 or $350, which was the case last week.

[windjc]

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

maybe you most of all.

Interesting. What is it you think I want to see. I called the top around 530 and missed it by 10. I called a retracement to 480 and missed it by 6.

Houbi bounced weakly off of this last leg down. Now it is edging up again on very very very low volume, just like it does almost every day when it is in a up trend. In the next 3-7 hours, larger money will trade on Houbi just like it did the last 4 days. And that larger money will decide if this bear flag turns into a rocket ship or into another leg down.

I called the bottom on the last drop, I don't think that gives me the right to tell the next person calling a bottom he's bonkers...as far as I can tell you're displeased that he predicts a bounce off of 480?

My humblest apologies to Chessnut and to you.

I just got a little annoyed because he posts rudimentary EW analysis without consideration of other factors. And the best EW analysts on this forum who charge for their services, would be the first to tell you thats suicide.

You can't ignore volume. You can't ignore divergences. You can just look at market sentiment or ignore long terms trends just because your pattern says their should be a wave 4.

EW is a guideline. And the reason it gets criticized is because a lot of newbie EW traders are always redrawing their lines because they don't take in the entire picture.

I'm not saying he is wrong about us going up. I am saying he will be wrong a lot in the future using only EW.

[chessnut]

windjc,   all better.

but im just gonna say that EW doesn't work all on its own, I am taking into consideration a lot to do with fundamentals and sentiment behind the scene.

EDIT, just realised you already said that pretty much