Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

stress levels are high, markets are wild, just another day in bitcoin land

good show!

A HELL of a lot better than that sideways stuff.  Volatility is a hell of a drug.

Tell that to us who got raped on btc-e yesterday 

[BTCtrader71]

bfx USD swaps are now at $18.7 million, down from, what -- $29 million a few days ago? (maybe longer ago than that, I don't remember). So that means that over $10 million worth of long positions got liquidated, which means something like 20,000 or 25,000 coins got sold in the process. Someone tell me if my back-of-the-envelope calculation is correct ...

wed 13th august longs were $30.05m, so yes about $11.3m have been closed/liquidated, if we say $500 average then easily 22k coins have been sold. Also, shorts have gone from 4k to 6k.

So perhaps we could time the bottom if we can guess when the bfx longs will be through doing what they gotta do?

EDIT: This is assuming that the closing out of the bfx longs is the major driver for the recent downturn from 600 to 460.

[Newbie1022]

stress levels are high, markets are wild, just another day in bitcoin land

good show!

A HELL of a lot better than that sideways stuff.  Volatility is a hell of a drug.

Tell that to us who got raped on btc-e yesterday 

Oh, if you traded there then you really can't drop out now... you'd be giving up a 6% premium in price if you closed your position. Stay put and make it back on the ride up.

[Davyd05]

you know its a busy day when people are quoting trolls

However I just beat myself up for not having flash crash money on exchange.. Sadly broken record sounding as I repeat this all the time. However I was just to iffy on holding cash on an exchange for a long period of time despite having full confidence in CaVirtEx

that happens everyday around here 

true, I guess in a way everyday is busy her Except for sideways days its a bit quieter.

[Newbie1022]

shorts jumped up to 6,724 an increase of over 500 since last bfxdata update, maybe someone is going to attack the hidden wall? or bfxdata is slow to update and it's a short from earlier

This happened right after the peak the other day. Predicting a memorable blood bath at this point.

[windjc]

How miserable is the board? Haven't been here the last day or two.

Just curious. Is everyone prepared for the possibility of retesting 420, 340 and 260? Is everyone ready to test <$260?

Not saying its going to happen, I'm just saying you might want to PREPARE yourself mentally and emotionally with that reality. You might want to have a gut check NOW instead of waiting until one of those scenarios plays out.

A few months ago when we recovered off the lows at 340 there was a lot of optimism around - things were just playing out like normal. Currently, some people STILL think its playing out like "normal" that we won't go below 420 or 340 or lower. Just can't happen.  Well that MIGHT be true. But what if its not??? ---> are you ready for that possibility??

If I was you, I'd have that conversation with myself soon. Because within the next month, its a possibility.

[BTCtrader71]

shorts jumped up to 6,724 an increase of over 500 since last bfxdata update, maybe someone is going to attack the hidden wall? or bfxdata is slow to update and it's a short from earlier

This happened right after the peak the other day. Predicting a memorable blood bath at this point.

How frequently does it get updated?

[Newbie1022]

shorts jumped up to 6,724 an increase of over 500 since last bfxdata update, maybe someone is going to attack the hidden wall? or bfxdata is slow to update and it's a short from earlier

This happened right after the peak the other day. Predicting a memorable blood bath at this point.

How frequently does it get updated?

It says it updates in real time, but I find that questionable.

[JorgeStolfi]

The price may recover, perhaps even in a few days.  What will be hard to recover is the credibility of bitcoin, and of bitcoin "experts".

No one saw this dip coming, no one could tell where it would end.  No one can tell whether it will stop at 460$, keep falling, or reverse.

No on can explain why it happened.  No one can tell for sure even where it was made in China or in the West.

So how could people tell whether and when the price will rise again, and by how much?

The "exponential trend" and the "periodic bubble theory" now seem rather far-fetched. 

Fund salesmen will have a hard time convincing people to invest.   How could an analyst honestly recommend it to his clients?

Or maybe not, there will always be suckers who will belive a good sales pitch and buy without researching... 

[empowering]

How miserable is the board? Haven't been here the last day or two.

Just curious. Is everyone prepared for the possibility of retesting 420, 340 and 260? Is everyone ready to test <$260?

Not saying its going to happen, I'm just saying you might want to PREPARE yourself mentally and emotionally with that reality. You might want to have a gut check NOW instead of waiting until one of those scenarios plays out.

A few months ago when we recovered off the lows at 340 there was a lot of optimism around - things were just playing out like normal. Currently, some people STILL think its playing out like "normal" that we won't go below 420 or 340 or lower. Just can't happen.  Well that MIGHT be true. But what if its not??? ---> are you ready for that possibility??

If I was you, I'd have that conversation with myself soon. Because within the next month, its a possibility.

Well I bet that cheered everyone up 

[mjk79]

Of all the exchanges which would be the best or most preferred to trade on? Or do people just have accounts on all of them?

[Newbie1022]

The price may recover, perhaps even in a few days.  What will be hard to recover is the credibility of bitcoin, and of bitcoin "experts".

No one saw this dip coming, no one could tell where it would end.  No one can tell whether it will stop at 460$, keep falling, or reverse.

No on can explain why it happened.  No one can tell for sure even where it was made in China or in the West.

So how could people tell whether and when the price will rise again, and by how much?

The "exponential trend" and the "periodic bubble theory" now seem rather far-fetched. 

Fund salesmen will have a hard time convincing people to invest.   How could an analyst honestly recommend it to his clients?

Or maybe not, there will always be suckers who will belive a good sales pitch and buy without researching... 

This is why I think it has to drop more... to a bottom that is beyond question. BUT, I can't trade this market right now. This is sheer insanity. Nobody knows what the hell is going to happen and everyone is frozen.

[empowering]

Of all the exchanges which would be the best or most preferred to trade on? Or do people just have accounts on all of them?

MtGox is good.... 

[Sandia]

shorts jumped up to 6,724 an increase of over 500 since last bfxdata update, maybe someone is going to attack the hidden wall? or bfxdata is slow to update and it's a short from earlier

This happened right after the peak the other day. Predicting a memorable blood bath at this point.

What is the logic behind that?  Serious question.

My guess is that the price will fall slowly, since he has already eaten 3500 (3k? 4k?) market asks, decreasing sell pressure.  (He may have cut my chances of getting my 380-430 bids filled.)  Note that the upside will still have to eat the same number of coins, since the limit asks look to be the same.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

lol noobs.
I am an professional cryptotrader and i just went all in. ejoy being left behind y'allz!

Well, I can promise you one thing - we haven't hit a bottom. There is a total lack of volume. Like none. At all.

Nothing about this looks like a reversal. Sure we could go up from here - to maybe the 490s best case scenario. But we sure as hell haven't capitulated. Maybe if we get up some real steam we could. But this is currently the lamest bounce in the history of bitcoin.

[wpalczynski]

lmao @ fishpants

lol noobs.
I am an professional cryptotrader and i just went all in. ejoy being left behind y'allz!

[empowering]

The price may recover, perhaps even in a few days.  What will be hard to recover is the credibility of bitcoin, and of bitcoin "experts".

No one saw this dip coming, no one could tell where it would end.  No one can tell whether it will stop at 460$, keep falling, or reverse.

No on can explain why it happened.  No one can tell for sure even where it was made in China or in the West.

So how could people tell whether and when the price will rise again, and by how much?

The "exponential trend" and the "periodic bubble theory" now seem rather far-fetched.  

Fund salesmen will have a hard time convincing people to invest.   How could an analyst honestly recommend it to his clients?

Or maybe not, there will always be suckers who will belive a good sales pitch and buy without researching...  

Hang on a minute... this is Bitcoin we are talking about?  the same one as usual right? volatility is not exactly rare... infact I thought it was more than expected by all?  ancd the market goes both ways right? I am pretty sure that it goes up down sideways, up down sideways , etc it has done it as long as I have looked... with BTC even more so...
I just do not get the surprise....  

I will surprise you somemore.. the market is going to continue to be volatile and go up down sideways on a regular basis... we have not seen nothing yet... and it will continue until of course there is far more liquidity through the exchanges... it was never surprising that we could go down, it was more surprising we stayed sideways for so long, and down before an up was ALWAYS on the cards, when the volatility kicks in, which is needed to jump up the price, then it swings wildly both ways, it is also possible for a down swing followed by another down swing... no shit... and guess what.. after that the price will continue to move... we will get an upswing thrown in somewhere along the line too... markets... they move, BTC especially, everyone here knows this by now right?
 
If you still believe in BTC long term.. this is nothing but either entertainment or opportunity.

Set my alarms for $435 - going for a long nap.

 

[adamstgBit]

lol noobs.
I am an professional cryptotrader and i just went all in. ejoy being left behind y'allz!

Well, I can promise you one thing - we haven't hit a bottom. There is a total lack of volume. Like none. At all.

Nothing about this looks like a reversal. Sure we could go up from here - to maybe the 490s best case scenario. But we sure as hell haven't capitulated. Maybe if we get up some real steam we could. But this is currently the lamest bounce in the history of bitcoin.

you little FUDster you  

[windjc]

lol noobs.
I am an professional cryptotrader and i just went all in. ejoy being left behind y'allz!

Well, I can promise you one thing - we haven't hit a bottom. There is a total lack of volume. Like none. At all.

Nothing about this looks like a reversal. Sure we could go up from here - to maybe the 490s best case scenario. But we sure as hell haven't capitulated. Maybe if we get up some real steam we could. But this is currently the lamest bounce in the history of bitcoin.

you little FUDster you  

People need to understand that this isn't the bottom. Maybe buyers will come in at 440 and that'll be the bottom.

But there is no bottom here. This is just sellers taking a breath.