Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCtrader71]

btc-e has been rising over the past 3 hours, from 430 to 445, closing the gap between it and everyone else. Not sure what's going on there but a return to some normalcy sure would be nice ...

[falllling]

btc-e has been rising over the past 3 hours, from 430 to 445, closing the gap between it and everyone else. Not sure what's going on there but a return to some normalcy sure would be nice ...

i can tell you what is going to happen, a huge drop to $350

[Newbie1022]

Not a rally.

[Chuckee]

Chinese sending their coins to exchange to dump into this small rebound. Get ready for huge dump! cut your loose before it's too late!

[JorgeStolfi]

The price may recover, perhaps even in a few days.  What will be hard to recover is the credibility of bitcoin, and of bitcoin "experts".

No one saw this dip coming, no one could tell where it would end.  No one can tell whether it will stop at 460$, keep falling, or reverse.

No on can explain why it happened.  No one can tell for sure even where it was made in China or in the West.

So how could people tell whether and when the price will rise again, and by how much?

The "exponential trend" and the "periodic bubble theory" now seem rather far-fetched.  
[ ... ]

Hang on a minute... this is Bitcoin we are talking about?  the same one as usual right? volatility is not exactly rare... infact I thought it was more than expected by all?  ancd the market goes both ways right? I am pretty sure that it goes up down sideways, up down sideways , etc it has done it as long as I have looked... with BTC even more so...
I just do not get the surprise....  [ ... ]

Seems I was not clear. 

Sure there has always been volatility, and large drops before, but until two months ago it was "expected volatility" that fitted the grand model: namely, average 1000% growth every year, through a series of bubbles more or less regularly spaced in time.   The drop after the November peak was eevn seen as a good thing because it was seen as a repeat of the drop after the April 2013 peak, and thus confirmed that pattern.  And the rise from May/20 to Jun/10 and the following plateau recalled what happened  from July through the end of September last year.

But this drop does not fit that pattern any more.  It is not the panic drop from ~125$ to ~85 on Oct/02, that was quicly reversed.   Analists were expecting the next bubble a month ago, but instead got a week of almost steady drop that brought the price down to the same level as the bottom of the "2014 Silk-Road-Like Dip".   So, what is the grand model now?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BTCtrader71]

Chinese sending their coins to exchange to dump into this small rebound. Get ready for huge dump! cut your loose before it's too late!

Are you aware that "cut your loose" is not a recognized expression in the English language?

[INSTANTpr]

$450!~BTCULL STAMPEDE!!!

[romneymoney]

Chinese sending their coins to exchange to dump into this small rebound. Get ready for huge dump! cut your loose before it's too late!

Are you aware that "cut your loose" is not a recognized expression in the English language?

He made the same mistake in his sig too. 

HEY EVERYBODY READ MY POSTS, I'M ILLITERATE AND STUPID!!

[blaaaaacksuit]

Chinese sending their coins to exchange to dump into this small rebound. Get ready for huge dump! cut your loose before it's too late!

Are you aware that "cut your loose" is not a recognized expression in the English language?

He made the same mistake in his sig too. 

HEY EVERYBODY READ MY POSTS, I'M ILLITERATE AND STUPID!!

I haven't been to any of the other boards today but I bet these shill trolls are coming out of the woodwork.

[inca]

Just read the last ten pages or so. Sentiment at rock bottom. Trolls doing their thing.

Bottom must be near. Still less than 30 bucks from a 5xx handle.

[JayJuanGee]

Keep selling everyone I'm redoing my kitchen.

MAKES NO sense.... 

[BTCtrader71]

So, what is the grand model now?

One of the widely recognized (I think) elements of the "grand model" is that the timing of the fluctuations above and below the log trendline are not actually expected to be predictable. The log trendline has an explanation that makes sense; but I've never seen anyone offer a theory to explain why bubbles ought to be spaced apart at regular intervals. So if they're not spaced out at regular intervals, there's no reason to abandon the rest of the model.


EDIT: Don't think I said that very well. What I meant was that the timing of the bubbles is not an essential part of anybody's grand model afaik.

[JayJuanGee]

Seems like the worst is yet to come.    

@JorgeStolfi could you please post that chart with your calculations that show that without China we would probably be around something around 70-100$

WHAT?    China's banning bitcoin, again?   

[romneymoney]

Seems I was not clear. 

Sure there has always been volatility, and large drops before, but until two months ago it was "expected volatility" that fitted the grand model: namely, average 1000% growth every year, through a series of bubbles more or less regularly spaced in time.   The drop after the November peak was eevn seen as a good thing because it was seen as a repeat of the drop after the April 2013 peak, and thus confirmed that pattern.  And the rise from May/20 to Jun/10 and the following plateau recalled what happened  from July through the end of September last year.

But this drop does not fit that pattern any more.  It is not the panic drop from ~125$ to ~85 on Oct/02, that was quicly reversed.   Analists were expecting the next bubble a month ago, but instead got a week of almost steady drop that brought the price down to the same level as the bottom of the "2014 Silk-Road-Like Dip".   So, what is the grand model now?

The bubble failing to materialize reminds me of the scene in Back to the Future III which answers your question well I think:

Jennifer Parker: Dr. Brown, I brought this note back from the future and now it's erased.

Doc: Of course it's erased.

Jennifer Parker: But what does that mean?

Doc: It means your future hasn't been written yet. No one's has. Your future is whatever you make it. So make it a good one, both of you.

Marty McFly: [Marty wraps his arm around Jennifer] We will, Doc.

[BTCtrader71]

Chinese sending their coins to exchange to dump into this small rebound. Get ready for huge dump! cut your loose before it's too late!

Are you aware that "cut your loose" is not a recognized expression in the English language?

He made the same mistake in his sig too. 

Ahh yes I had not seen that. Must be on purpose ...

[TeeBone]

Haaa bulltarp, called it. The m.o. since 590's.....wait 12-24 hrs for panic-buying sheep to line up bids, then methodically slice through every support floor. They dont call em sharks for no reason.

The kiddie room is down the hallway.
-Mike 'the mouth' Matusow

 

[Chuckee]

[blaaaaacksuit]

Haaa bulltarp, called it. The m.o. since 590's.....wait 12-24 hrs for panic-buying sheep to line up bids, then methodically slice through every support floor. They dont call em sharks for no reason.

The kiddie room is down the hallway.
-Mike 'the mouth' Matusow

 

Quite possibly.  Big Green dildos but low vol.

[blaaaaacksuit]

Nah.