Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

[1715029962]

1715029962

[wachtwoord]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

[inca]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

Yeah i am not sure I have seen tzupy every give a bullish response. Then again it has been a long bear market.

[Davyd05]

Patience is all I need. However it be nice to see the bears get it together and create a new low. Failing to do so since the the era of China ban nd the goxxing.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

But the SR crash was a totally different situation AND type of crash. The two scenarios have 0 in common.

[inca]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

But the SR crash was a totally different situation AND type of crash. The two scenarios have 0 in common.

History rhymes, not repeats.

[Wary]

The exact annualised inflation rate jumps around every day, depending on how many bitcoins were mined in the last 24 hours.

It is around 10-14% currently, but will halve to around 5% at block height 420,000.

Say, 12%. It's not much, but unfortunately if works with "multiplicator": Since only about 20% of bitcoins are in circulation (the rest is on hodl), effect of new coins is 5 times stronger. I.e. this 12% inflation affects prices with the strength of 60% one.  That is we need 60% annual user base growth just to maintain current price.

[prophetx]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

yes but last year was a different situation.  we had willy bot on mtgox buying up BTC that was no longer held by the exchange (or in the processes of being fleeced).

this year we have a glut of ASICs causing block times to be in the 8 minute range which means that the daily supply of BTC is 20% higher than it should.  also several very large early wallets moved at the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014.

i actually bought back in right after the SR drop...

[prophetx]

going to the Moon is a choice we make 

[Davyd05]

going to the Moon is a choice we make  

Were stocking fuel for Mars, don't cha know?

[wachtwoord]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

But the SR crash was a totally different situation AND type of crash. The two scenarios have 0 in common.

Haha, you're saying it's different this time?  

Ah well, it might be, it might not. Short term my opinion is as good a guess as anyone's.

[MemCiD]

Honestly.. I think it'll bounce back up today!

[prophetx]

going to the Moon is a choice we make  

Were stocking fuel for Mars, don't cha know?

going to Mars is a suicide mission until they can have a space station around Mars

edit:

which i don't think the current world leadership is capable of the kind of long term planning that is required to achieve that...

[wachtwoord]

Meanwhile on coinfloor...



Dat wall...

So solid. Much scare.

I can read your buy order. Nice one though

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I won't be closing my shorts anytime soon

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

The exact annualised inflation rate jumps around every day, depending on how many bitcoins were mined in the last 24 hours.

It is around 10-14% currently, but will halve to around 5% at block height 420,000.

Say, 12%. It's not much, but unfortunately if works with "multiplicator": Since only about 20% of bitcoins are in circulation (the rest is on hodl), effect of new coins is 5 times stronger. I.e. this 12% inflation affects prices with the strength of 60% one.  That is we need 60% annual user base growth just to maintain current price.

not quite, a portion of the new coins will going directly into the "hodl" category so it is less than your 60% ... and it is not a 60% increase in total number of users but total new funds by users to maintain current price.

[grappa_barricata]

I won't be closing my shorts anytime soon

i'm betting on 350$ in a couple of days, then maybe a crazy 20%+ bounce but maybe not

[Tzupy]

Last year aoriund this time btc entered the rally  Will history repeat itself?

No chance, after this drop ends and a rebound follows we'll have the biggest drop, which should be scary.

People would have given the same answer last year when the market dropped after SR got taken out

But the SR crash was a totally different situation AND type of crash. The two scenarios have 0 in common.

O really? What is that? People sold and bought back lower... Same shit different story.
I think this is a good entry point, not sure if we already hit the bottom or not, but market looks completely oversold. Don't forget shorts on finex are near ATH  

Market looking oversold (and it's not "completely") is normal at this stage, it doesn't mean it won't drop further.

[Davyd05]

I won't be closing my shorts anytime soon

Perhaps eating them?