Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

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[oda.krell]

... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

And I'll add: while nobody named their exact bid, iirc two participants went on record that they submitted, in their words, lowball offers, but they still referred to it in the context of current on-exchange market price. That was seriously an enlightening moment for me: I had always, in the most bearish corner of my mind, suspected that there might be "the market price" that us dumbasses pay, and the "true value of a coin" the big boys are looking at. Turns out, the big boys (and girls) are just staring at market price as defined by on-exchange trading as we do. Small consolation

[N12]

... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

And I'll add: while nobody named their exact bid, iirc two participants went on record that they submitted, in their words, lowball offers, but they still referred to it in the context of current on-exchange market price. That was seriously an enlightening moment for me: I had always, in the most bearish corner of my mind, suspected that there might be "the market price" that us dumbasses pay, and the "true value of a coin" the big boys are looking at. Turns out, the big boys (and girls) are just staring at market price as defined by on-exchange trading as we do. Small consolation

This is why Willy v2 is inevitable.

[NotLambchop]

... it is at least as tempting to buy in at the current level than it was at the level during the previous auction, and probably more so.

What do you mean?  Do you know the price paid at the last auction?  (If not, what are you extrapolating from?)

We don't know the exact price that the lots took in last time, but probably neither drastically above nor below market. Not drastically below, because one guy got them all, not drastically above, because the premium to get them all in one, counter party risk free lot is there, but probably not so large that it warrants, say, doubling market price.

And I'll add: while nobody named their exact bid, iirc two participants went on record that they submitted, in their words, lowball offers, but they still referred to it in the context of current on-exchange market price. That was seriously an enlightening moment for me: I had always, in the most bearish corner of my mind, suspected that there might be "the market price" that us dumbasses pay, and the "true value of a coin" the big boys are looking at. Turns out, the big boys (and girls) are just staring at market price as defined by on-exchange trading as we do. Small consolation

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful.  If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Just how much wish fulfilment is involved here?

[fabrizio123]

Is World bank changing his mind?
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/world-bank-bitcoin-not-ponzi-scheme/

"Trouble started when people began speculating that the value of Bitcoin would rise, thereby raising the demand for Bitcoin and making the value-rise a self-fulfilling prophesy. ... Bitcoin is not a deliberate Ponzi."

If World Bank has ever made claims to the contrary, please cite.

I can't find you're right, i was thinking that they claimed that, anyway a lot of people say that btc is a ponzi scheme, for all of them it should be better to read that article

[jonoiv]

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...  

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

[Tzupy]

...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

[N12]

I'm sure DPR is as much a speculative genius as our 5th of October 30k "bearwhale", and that he is as well versed in speculation as in the art of safely conducting criminal business (such as browsing the SR admin panel on his laptop in a public library and leaving 144k BTC unencrypted).

[jonoiv]

...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

Yer like when UK prime minister expected gold to plumet and sold 70% of the UK's gold reserves only to see it rally to a new all time high.

Or when the Russians signed a gas deal with the Chinese this year only to realise after transportation they would make a loss.

Or when The UK decided not to join the euro when the pound was worth 2 euros only to see the euro almost reach parity with the pound.

Or like when Japan decided to use QE to solve the looming recession only to see 15 years of stagnation followed by another recession now starting.


Governments are cleaver like that.  

[Omikifuse]

No big moves during the night.

So boring.


Was expecting something

[oda.krell]

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful.  If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1.

The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit.

If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards.

What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh.

[Miz4r]

...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.

[NotLambchop]

Not sure how you got from "two participants [going] on record [with] lowball offers" to anything meaningful.  If offers were made @$100 or even $20 per, would the statements be any different?

Lowball offer based on market price means market price times some value < 1.

The lower that value, the more arb profit. The closer that value to 1, the higher the chance you'll get a chance at arb profit.

If you think they submitted a $20 offers, sure, go ahead. I sure would have liked to see the meeting the bank lady had with her superiors afterwards.

What wraps it up is that one participant outbid all other participants on all lots. The previous auction converged around market price at the time, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if it was market +5% or market -5%, but my point is, from references to on-exchange market price plus auction mechanics and one winner of all lots, "near market" is a pretty conservative conclusion. Harping on about how it probably went away for a fraction sounds more like wishful thinking to me, tbh.

1. You have offered no justifications for "+-5% market" other than "one bidder won all the lots."  
2. How many participants were there?
3. While any offer below market could be correctly termed as "lowball offer," how does this translate to +-5% market?

[NotLambchop]

...Those 180'000 BTC  were kept away from the market; and part of them, at least, must have been bought by SR customers on the open market.  So Ross was obviously accumulating.  I would even guess that he had been holding almost all the bitcoins that he got.
...

That's important, DPR was in accumulation mode during 2013, and if now BOTH him and the US gov believe it's time to cash out, then they both expect much lower prices in the near future.

You really think the FBI talked to DPR and discussed with him whether now would be a good time to sell? They sell now because they can, the FBI are no speculators and they certainly didn't ask for DPR's permission first.

Yes.
Not FBI, but I get what you mean.

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...  

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

Didn't watch it, more of a cricket man.... But don't tell anyone up here!

[jonoiv]

I'm a Scot, there's noo chance of that

You could have done with a Denis Law last night...  

I almost wanted Scotland to make it 2-2, to test to see if England would collapse, but then I thought... naaah

Didn't watch it, more of a cricket man.... But don't tell anyone up here!

I once met a guy from Iceland, said he was into beach volleyball.  But I've never heard a Scot say they like cricket  

[justusranvier]

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

This actually means that Ross wants his coins sold at as low of a price as possible.

The money at stake is the prize which the prosecutors are competing for, and to maximize his chance of regaining his freedom he'd want their incentive to be as low as possible.

[NotLambchop]

"As part of a civil forfeiture proceeding, Ulbricht and the government in January reached a deal in which the bitcoins on his hardware would be sold, with the proceeds to be held pending the outcome of his case."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKCN0J11UJ20141117

This actually means that DPR wants his coins sold at as low of a price as possible.

The money at stake is the prize which the prosecutors are competing for, and to maximize his chance of regaining his freedom he'd want their incentive to be as low as possible.

So you've already convicted Mr. Dread?
Or is it just poor reading comprehension?
*You do understand that the value of the seized coin will likely be returned to Ulbricht if he is found innocent?

[justusranvier]

So you've already convicted Mr. Dread?
Or is it just poor reading comprehension?

If course it was a typo. I was thinking about your post and Miz4r's post at the same time.

Whether or not Ross is DPR, and whether or not he's committed any crimes, the prosecutors have a very strong financial incentive to convict him.

Their only goal is to convict him(*) - not to determine the truth of his guilt.

Knowing this, Ross should know that minimizing the financial incentive they have to push for his conviction is in his best interests, so he'd want the coins they seized from him to be sold as cheaply as possible.

* Well-known features of the US "adversarial" court system