Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[humanitee]

Funny how this works against you.

Not denying that.
Well at least I can take the piss to back it up.

 

[Rampion]

People, you don't get it. Rampion said we need to hit 50 first before we go up. So you can easily sell 100% now like he obviously also did. Unless he's full of shit ofcourse.

You and him both.
Perhaps two sides of the same coin.

I'm no perm-bear, saying the bubble needs to deflate (to $50 or whatever the bottom will be, I have no crystal ball) is just stating the obvious.

If you think that I'm full of shit for believing we had a bubble which is now deflating, then maybe you are in denial of facts, but honestly it didn't seem so by your posts.

[ManBearPig]

No no no, contain your emotions a bit here and look at the bigger picture. I may be wrong but this looks very much like a bounce (maybe to 82).

Well predicted

Me, I pulled my sell just above that. This is after all exactly the drop I've been expecting since $130.

I'm loathe to try to trade the next one though, unless it's clear it's an avalanche.

[ElectricMucus]

People, you don't get it. Rampion said we need to hit 50 first before we go up. So you can easily sell 100% now like he obviously also did. Unless he's full of shit ofcourse.

You and him both.
Perhaps two sides of the same coin.

I'm no perm-bear, saying the bubble needs to deflate (to $50 or whatever the bottom will be, I have no crystal ball) is just stating the obvious.

If you think that I'm full of shit for believing we had a bubble which is now deflating, then maybe you are in denial of facts, but honestly it didn't seem so by your posts.

In my opinion you can't say with certainty for extended periods.
I made this thread once to state what I think about it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189308.0

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

People, you don't get it. Rampion said we need to hit 50 first before we go up. So you can easily sell 100% now like he obviously also did. Unless he's full of shit ofcourse.

You and him both.
Perhaps two sides of the same coin.

I'm no perm-bear, saying the bubble needs to deflate (to $50 or whatever the bottom will be, I have no crystal ball) is just stating the obvious.

If you think that I'm full of shit for believing we had a bubble which is now deflating, then maybe you are in denial of facts, but honestly it didn't seem so by your posts.

In my opinion you can't say with certainty for extended periods.
I made this thread once to state what I think about it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189308.0

Agreed, impossible say with certainty for extended periods. I just say that before a positive cycle is resumed the price needs to fully deflate and then enter in a sustainable uptrend. Obviously nobody can predict a 100% certain timeframe, only guesstimate.

But anyhow I don't understand your post about Rhodium, your point is that BTC will behave as Rhodium long term? I think that's BS. I don't deny that the charts look similar, with their two bubbles (good catch BTW), but they are fundamentally different assets. You say they have three properties in common:

It is very rare, (much) rarer than Gold
It is somewhat of a fringe investment
It is subject to hypes

1) scarcity is relative in Bitcoin, as each BTC can be easily and very conveniently divided in 100.000.000 sub-units, ready to be immediately transferred with a clic. I don't see how its scarcity is comparable to Gold or Rhodium, apart from a fundamental and general aspect: supply is limited inflation is more or less predictable.

2) yes, but for different reasons. Bitcoin is still an experiment in its initial stages.

3) all commodities are subject to hypes

My point is that I don't get what is the "killer similarity" between BTC and Rhodium. Yes, Bitcoin is a "digital commodity". But its "digital" form is not only an adjective, is a very important characteristic that makes Bitcoin different from any physical commodity. It can be easily transfered, transported, hided, divided, etc. Stores of value are needed, they provide an utility, and Bitcoin is a huge improvement in utility over physical stores of value because of its convenience and "digital" characteristics. Plus, you have the blockchain, which is a fascinating, multi-use beast by itself. Then, you have colored coins applications. The possibilities Bitcoins open go well beyond its similarity with physical commodities. I really think that saying that in the long term Bitcoin will probably behave like Rhodium is baseless.

[gizmoh]

Sideways trading on low volume. Tonight, I'd expect red fireworks celebrating USA dollars of independence.

[humanitee]

Sideways trading on low volume. Tonight, I'd expect red fireworks celebrating USA dollars of independence.

Good, save the green ones for next week.

[ElectricMucus]

My point is that I don't get what is the "killer similarity" between BTC and Rhodium. Yes, Bitcoin is a "digital commodity". But its "digital" form is not only an adjective, is a very important characteristic that makes Bitcoin different from any physical commodity. It can be easily transfered, transported, hided, divided, etc. Stores of value are needed, they provide an utility, and Bitcoin is a huge improvement in utility over physical stores of value because of its convenience and "digital" characteristics. Plus, you have the blockchain, which is a fascinating, multi-use beast by itself. Then, you have colored coins applications. The possibilities Bitcoins open go well beyond its similarity with physical commodities. I really think that saying that in the long term Bitcoin will probably behave like Rhodium is baseless.

My point is it attracts the same kind of crowds, fringe types and salesmen personalities. I view Bruce Wagner, Max Kaiser or Bitcoin Jesus not different than those types who sell "Rare Rhodium Proofs" on a TV-shopping channel. It's the same kind of Gold-Digger Mentality, hordes of people thinking they are on to the next big thing.
I am probably more overall bearish than you when it comes to fundamental use of Bitcoin, but I don't think it's certain this Bubble will collapse the way it should. For all I care we could shoot back up to 200+ within a month or so.
Only within a certain short timespan of about a few days to a weeks I think Bitcoin can be predicted with enough accuracy to trade it successfully. And even then it can only be predicted in certain cases.

[kickinyou]

Is there som site there people can vote for what thay think will happen with bitcoin up or down ?

[lucas.sev]

Is there som site there people can vote for what thay think will happen with bitcoin up or down ?

any vote on future price that is not backed up by money is worth exactly that - nothing

[Dalib]

this trading between 79 and 80 USD is pretty boring ...

[oda.krell]

Is there som site there people can vote for what thay think will happen with bitcoin up or down ?

today's your lucky day, there are actually several sites like that:

http://mtgox.com/

http://bitstamp.net/

need more?

(you set yourself up for this one :D)

[Its About Sharing]

No no no, contain your emotions a bit here and look at the bigger picture. I may be wrong but this looks very much like a bounce (maybe to 82).

Well predicted

Me, I pulled my sell just above that. This is after all exactly the drop I've been expecting since $130.

I'm loathe to try to trade the next one though, unless it's clear it's an avalanche.

I am hoping my other prediction a few pages back comes true. This one will be more meaningfull:

A move up to 86 or so and then a bit of selling to bring things back down is possible. That will then create a nice spinning top candle. Some indecision for a day or two and then continue with the down trend.

It is looking like it so far, was off by $1 on the move up.

I'm with you, I am really hesitant to trade this. Had I went with my last two "calls" on the bounces I would have made $5-$7 on each move, if I followed it exactly. Anyway, won't matter much once we are lower.

[Kazu]

Was more fun when the price was falling.

[fr33d0miz3r]

The Bitcoin rocket

[wonkytonky]

ofcourse price will fall.

sold at 72.

bought back at 80..

makes sense..

next time i'll just use the ema's crossing on daily charts lol i'd be fucking rich if i only did that..

[barbs]

ofcourse price will fall.

sold at 72.

bought back at 80..

makes sense..

next time i'll just use the ema's crossing on daily charts lol i'd be fucking rich if i only did that..

I haven't bought back yet. On the fence so to speak

[molecular]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

[oda.krell]

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.