Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Kazu]

My theory.

Why 31? 57-ish seems much more likely as that is where the crash bounced off of.

[dan99]

is hitting resistance at $80 and now time 2 buy .. up up and away.

[derpinheimer]

is hitting resistance at $80 and now time 2 buy .. up up and away.

You posted that twice already. On the same page.

Did something change or make this second post have a point? No? Okay, then stfu.

[RationalSpeculator]

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

That was a very interesting post. Thank you so much for sharing your opinion and experiences.

I've always found it contradictory that the most advanced technology would be adopted first by the least advanced countries. The cell phone analogy does not apply as they just skipped the landlines in 3th world but in no way did they adopt something superior as the West. The West also have cell phones, and for a much better price/quality likely.

Also on the regulation side, the least advanced countries have the most violent rulers. Bitcoin cannot become mainstream when oppressed by rulers in my opinion. It is already highly uncertain whether western governments will suppress bitcoin or not, so it looks totally unrealistic to me that countries with even less freedom like 3th world and Asia would see bitcoin become mainstream before the West.

[justusranvier]

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

This is where I think bitcoin will start helping people outside of the US and Europe:

http://www.onlineprnews.com/news/393671-1372182394-major-online-staffing-site-outbounderscom-now-accepts-bitcoin.html

Developments like this make it easier for programmers, artists, designers, and other people whose product can be delivered via the Internet, to sell their services on the international market. I'm sure there are plenty of people in Argentina with those kinds of skills and Bitcoin solves the problem of allowing anyone in the world to pay anyone else in the world.

The ability to spend Bitcoins on imported goods is growing too; it won't remain a speculator's toy forever.

[discobean]

My theory.

Why 31? 57-ish seems much more likely as that is where the crash bounced off of.

I just have a feeling around 30-50.  Point being, still fall a bit, until a slow recovery.

My main worry is companies like bitpay, flattr and all these new ones popping up that convert to fiat, which could stop that recovery, or at least extend it out for much longer than everybody (or me at least) is expecting.

[wonkytonky]

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

This is where I think bitcoin will start helping people outside of the US and Europe:

http://www.onlineprnews.com/news/393671-1372182394-major-online-staffing-site-outbounderscom-now-accepts-bitcoin.html

Developments like this make it easier for programmers, artists, designers, and other people whose product can be delivered via the Internet, to sell their services on the international market. I'm sure there are plenty of people in Argentina with those kinds of skills and Bitcoin solves the problem of allowing anyone in the world to pay anyone else in the world.

The ability to spend Bitcoins on imported goods is growing too; it won't remain a speculator's toy forever.

thats a very nice sign..  only 1100 employers at this time  but it could be a trend setter .

[MikeH]

as someone who sold at 72 and watching the price climb up it is ruining my evening and driving me nuts.

after doing that a couple of times, I've realised I should hold most my btc and do this with only a small amount where I don't feel compelled to buy back in at a loss in fear of missing the boat - I can just wait for it to drop back, no matter how long it takes, if it doesn't drop - not a big deal.

[ChartBuddy]

[dan99]

Holding steady that is cool

[giszmo]

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

Come on, don't whine. make the best of it. I live in Chile and it's already hard to get bitcoins here. 5% markup is a good deal but nobody (really almost nobody) here is dealing in bitcoins. But in Argentine you must be ready to help people out that come there and need pesos. Be flexible, be responsive at localbitcoins.com and the foreigners travelling to Argentine will be happy to make a good deal with their bitcoins. As mentioned before, work for bitcoin. If they are so horribly overpriced, don't buy them but mine (well, sorry if that's some months too late now) them, work for them or when you buy them, be the market maker. You will get MtGox rate even in Argentine if you are the market maker.
Even people in Iran manage to get bitcoins not despite the hassle they have getting dollars but thanks to the borderless nature of Bitcoin. Mohammad Rafigh is a musician and producer and he is quite happy with what he can earn thanks to bitcoin.

[lucas.sev]

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.

[Its About Sharing]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

Wow, big news!

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

In my opinion this kind of news is extremely interesting, and while it's neglected by many, its potentially more bullish than any ETF. Underdeveloped counties can play a fundamental role in future currencies and stores of value.

In a sense we need a killer app of some type. This could be the start at least in another country. We only need things to start taking off in one location and then the organic nature of BTC (, developers and the VC's) can take over.
My concern though, with something like this is the volatility of BTC. That is not a problem if you are using Bitpay or the like, but for BTC to work in these countries I would think there needs to
be some form of stability, UNLESS the inflation rate there is more risky than BTC (e.g. - Argentina).

Can you imagine if this "app" takes off AFTER we correct and people in poor nations are locked into something deflationary and rising quite steadily in price?

IAS

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

Very interesting post and thanks for taking the time to give your opinion.
I certainly give someone "on the ground" more credibility than a techy guy.
It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

What you say may very well be true (makes a lot of sense) but a nice app, easier access to BTC and such mich help change things.

Even if BTC becomes a store of wealth for few, with the world banking system the way it is, it can still be a very good thing to hold.
And one also has to consider the low float and global market size, we don't need to be wildly successful to succeed.

edit - Great points/posts Gismo and justusranzier. Very interesting posts and it just goes to show you perspective is everything.

[ChartBuddy]

[niothor]

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.

If I see Its about sharing saying the same thing I'm gonna visit my optometrist.

[Rampion]

Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.

Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing.

No, I didn't change anything. We were speaking about regulation. You said that if BTC was banned by the US, it would die and fail miserably. I said that even if it was banned, it would absorb more black market economy activity, which would make BTC grow and its price raise.

Note that I say SR is genius, and we need more killer apps like SR. Business models that couldn't exist without BTC. You mocked SR, to the contrary I consider it genius, and I say BTC needs more and bigger SR's.

[phantitox]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

Wow, big news!

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

In my opinion this kind of news is extremely interesting, and while it's neglected by many, its potentially more bullish than any ETF. Underdeveloped counties can play a fundamental role in future currencies and stores of value.

In a sense we need a killer app of some type. This could be the start at least in another country. We only need things to start taking off in one location and then the organic nature of BTC (, developers and the VC's) can take over.
My concern though, with something like this is the volatility of BTC. That is not a problem if you are using Bitpay or the like, but for BTC to work in these countries I would think there needs to
be some form of stability, UNLESS the inflation rate there is more risky than BTC (e.g. - Argentina).

Can you imagine if this "app" takes off AFTER we correct and people in poor nations are locked into something deflationary and rising quite steadily in price?

IAS

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Yes, at first BTC sounds ideal to countries like ours with devaluating currencies and hyperinflating economies, but the awful truth is there is no easy way for us to get BTC and no way to get it at market price. But even before that, we cannot get USD. We even got a black market for that, USD is expensive. If you get your USD as an Argentinian, you'll soon find out there is no way for you to inject it into one of the exchanges, they all require you to link a US or EU/Sepa bank, or a us payment system (dwolla,etc) or maybe use some retail moneypacks (which you guessed.. don't exist here). International bank wire from Arg have prohibitive costs.

Another sad truth is the fact we Argentinian's (and lots of other 3rd world countries) rely heavily solely on Paypal and CC's to buy internationally. We all know that's not happening for BTC, at least not on a regular basis, but truth be told, the BTC I was able to acquire at market price or closest to it I got them through Paypal, thanks to people who trusted me.

If we go through all this, and our btc investments do well, good luck getting those dollars back on the Argentine system. If you're a long bull like myself, that shouldn't matter for now at least..

Even if you disregard everything cost and acquisition related, another harsh truth is there's nothing I can do here in Argentina with my BTC other than use it as a (volatile) store of value. Again, sadly, over the last year I've also realized that bitcoin has placed all it's energies in building rich financial systems and infrastructure (very much like the ones we try to replace and prone to the same heavy abuse), all the while ignoring the development of a real economy and everyday commerce tools.

It's easy for big fish in the US or EU to buy huge loads of btc, and manipulate the market.
It's hard for small 3rd world guys to do 800 pesos = 90 usd = 1 btc, with fees all along and market markup.

The M-Pesa news sounds like a great step in the right direction,  I'll take that.

At the moment though, and it hurts to say, btc is still almost exclusively a financial platform, a very speculative one at that. Not nearly ready to go helping the 3rd world.

Very interesting post and thanks for taking the time to give your opinion.
I certainly give someone "on the ground" more credibility than a techy guy.
It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

What you say may very well be true (makes a lot of sense) but a nice app, easier access to BTC and such mich help change things.

Even if BTC becomes a store of wealth for few, with the world banking system the way it is, it can still be a very good thing to hold.
And one also has to consider the low float and global market size, we don't need to be wildly successful to succeed.

edit - Great points/posts Gismo and justusranzier. Very interesting posts and it just goes to show you perspective is everything.

you think you got it hard? im from venezuela thats 10 years in a row of exchange control , harder that the one of the fellows from the south, believe i know what are you talking about, i must say tho the best way to get the coin is with the mining operations, lucky for me the electricity here cost a nickle the lowest cost in all america, idk about the cost of operations in argentina but maybe you should try out regards.

[byronbb]

Are we really going to revisit $50 bitcoins? This is weird to me. ASIC was a revolution in the security of the network and the speculators reacted appropriately. $50 is where the price simply began to ramp up after the massive battle over $20. Sub $50 coins? I don't buy it.

[bangersdad]

Argentine here.

I'm gonna be painfully honest, but I've seen the "btc saviour of the 3rd world" used a lot and though I'd love nothing more than to agree with it, I've sadly come to the realization it is completely false.

Very interesting post! a proper perspective...rather than the usual bullish fud.

[Its About Sharing]

Are we really going to revisit $50 bitcoins? This is weird to me. ASIC was a revolution in the security of the network and the speculators reacted appropriately. $50 is where the price simply began to ramp up after the massive battle over $20. Sub $50 coins? I don't buy it.

It is very very possible. I think you (we) need to consider the early adopters and miners who have most of the shares (relative to regular Joes).
When we get in a clear downtrend they don't want to be the last one out the door.
So, you see sells into rallies and such moves.
The volume difference (really size of sales) is clear. Just watch the tape. (You will notice more 100, 200, 5000 and larger size blocks on the sells than the buys and it's generally not close).

From a TA point of view, it makes sense to sort of continue where we left off (minus some room up for advancements, adoption, store of value, global economic situation, etc.)
That puts us anywhere from 20's to 50's (and I'd say at the lower range of that BUT we have to consider our advancement and such as stated above.)