Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Miz4r]

The proposed ETF is a positive statement of intent IMO. The Winkelvii aren't going anywhere. They're market making.

Bitcoin is not nearly liquid enough for big players. A listed ETF could represent a bona fide, legit trading opportunity (notwithstanding taxes and fees - which, incidently, evidence legitimacy!)

+1 Good to see there are still people with common sense around.

[adamstgBit]

I don't get it they are selling  paper bitcoins that can't be redeemed for BTC

[bito]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.

I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?

[nmersulypnem]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.

I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?

There is no tax implication for them or their corp.  the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares.  That money goes to the corp (not to you directly).  If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.

I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains.  So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes.   The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.

[ChartBuddy]

[micalith]

Whatever the worth of this Winkle affair, I'm still undecided as to its actual effect on the market. Negligible volume on the exchanges reflects indecision too. Like the stillness before an execution ...

[NewLiberty]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.

I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?

There is no tax implication for them or their corp.  the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares.  That money goes to the corp (not to you directly).  If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.

I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains.  So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes.   The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.

What it does is make the Bitcoins into an ETF.  There are well established rules for ETFs for taxes and accounting, so it hides the fact that your investment is in Bitcoins making the accounting easy, its just another ETF in your list of ETF investments.

Whether it is wise to do so is an entirely separate question.  

Also, the ETFs are the #1 mechanism that the leviathans use to manipulate currencies (such as gold).  So the existence of an increasing number of ETFs that can move the market however a central bank desires it to move creates additional issues.

[Kazu]

Can somebody quickly explain how with an ETF the winkles can do something in terms of manipulation that an exchanger like gox can't?

[micalith]

Whatever the worth of this Winkle affair, I'm still undecided as to its actual effect on the market. Negligible volume on the exchanges reflects indecision too. Like the stillness before an execution ...

I'd say mostly positive... we're dealing with a stronger dollar now that the economic data coming out of the US is a bit rosier and the Fed might start tightening its belt, yet bitcoins have held up relatively well. 

Mt. Gox's situation is certainly causing some indecisiveness,

but maybe the unrest in Egypt will shakeup the media enough to remind people of the Cyprus rally.  

Yes, there are those positives, but the exchanges have become less subject to 'maybe if' news lately. It won't turn bull without hard evidence of significant benefits to the market.

[QuestionAuthority]

Ok, we're back in the 90's. What's the consensus here? Up up and away or down below 80?

[Its About Sharing]

Ok, we're back in the 90's. What's the consensus here? Up up and away or down below 80?

We might rally a bit here but I have the feeling it is going to be met with heavy sales.
This market is tough to call.

I am curious about what the volume ends up being today. I bet the volume is lower tomorrow on a move up (Another negative divergence) and then another big drop down to follow.
That has happened on the last 2 bigger down moves recently.

Basically, I don't trust what I am seeing (if that makes sense...)

[Richy_T]

Ok, we're back in the 90's. What's the consensus here? Up up and away or down below 80?

I think we're in for a long slide barring any good news. Right now, to be honest, I wouldn't buy above 60. I want to say it's worth more but I think that putting one's money where one's mouth is gives an honest assessment.

[nmersulypnem]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.

I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?

There is no tax implication for them or their corp.  the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares.  That money goes to the corp (not to you directly).  If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.

I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains.  So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes.   The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.

What it does is make the Bitcoins into an ETF.  There are well established rules for ETFs for taxes and accounting, so it hides the fact that your investment is in Bitcoins making the accounting easy, its just another ETF in your list of ETF investments.

Whether it is wise to do so is an entirely separate question.  

Also, the ETFs are the #1 mechanism that the leviathans use to manipulate currencies (such as gold).  So the existence of an increasing number of ETFs that can move the market however a central bank desires it to move creates additional issues.

The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain.   This is not the case for Bitcoins.  Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins.  ...and you don't need to declare anything.  If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.

[MAbtc]

Ok, we're back in the 90's. What's the consensus here? Up up and away or down below 80?

I think this bounce up was expected, but I don't think it will pass the 94-95 area. Then back down we go.... we'll see if 78-80 support holds.

[wachtwoord]

The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain.   This is not the case for Bitcoins.  Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins.  ...and you don't need to declare anything.  If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.

Please try to recall that regions do exist oitside of US soil...

[FNG]

The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain.   This is not the case for Bitcoins.  Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins.  ...and you don't need to declare anything.  If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.

Please try to recall that regions do exist oitside of US soil...

In numerous countries it is much MUCH easier to buy gold than it is to buy bitcoin. In the U.S it isn't anymore difficult either..probably easier in most cases

[nmersulypnem]

The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain.   This is not the case for Bitcoins.  Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins.  ...and you don't need to declare anything.  If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.

Please try to recall that regions do exist oitside of US soil...

The ETF will only exist on an American exchange anyway.

[Frozenlock]

Am I the only one who thinks it's way too early for an ETF?

[notme]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about EFTs and TLDR the Winklevii document.

I wonder what the tax implications of the Winklevii moving their BTC into this EFT trust are. They would not need to pay any capital gains tax, since they've not realised their profits. But what about the shares they are selling?

There is no tax implication for them or their corp.  the corp does not pay taxes when issuing shares.  That money goes to the corp (not to you directly).  If they then pay themselves a salary from that money, then they'd pay taxes on it.

I guess the difference is that if they just sold the BTC, they would pay taxes on any realized gains.  So, actually, I guess this is the perfect way of selling BTC at a profit without paying taxes.   The money is technically in the corp, but they can still buy themselves pretty things with it.

What it does is make the Bitcoins into an ETF.  There are well established rules for ETFs for taxes and accounting, so it hides the fact that your investment is in Bitcoins making the accounting easy, its just another ETF in your list of ETF investments.

Whether it is wise to do so is an entirely separate question.  

Also, the ETFs are the #1 mechanism that the leviathans use to manipulate currencies (such as gold).  So the existence of an increasing number of ETFs that can move the market however a central bank desires it to move creates additional issues.

The reason there are Gold, Oil, Industry, and Country ETFs is that actually buying a brick of gold, or a barrel of Oil is a huge pain.   This is not the case for Bitcoins.  Any idiot can overnight a check to CampBx and buy Bitcoins.  ...and you don't need to declare anything.  If Bitcoins go up in value and you sell them, it is up to you if you want to declare that income (the IRS has not said it's taxable yet) - with an ETF, you WILL have to pay taxes, definitely.

The IRS says every profitable transaction is taxable: http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc420.html

[Its About Sharing]

Ok, we're back in the 90's. What's the consensus here? Up up and away or down below 80?

We might rally a bit here but I have the feeling it is going to be met with heavy sales.
This market is tough to call.

I am curious about what the volume ends up being today. I bet the volume is lower tomorrow on a move up (Another negative divergence) and then another big drop down to follow.
That has happened on the last 2 bigger down moves recently.

Basically, I don't trust what I am seeing (if that makes sense...)

Good call (sort of). Very predictable.