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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 9 (6.3%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.5%)
H1 2020 - 27 (18.9%)
H2 2020 - 26 (18.2%)
H1 2021 - 11 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19.6%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.2%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.8%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 2 (1.4%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.5%)
Total Voters: 143

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21287004 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
poncho32
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January 15, 2015, 12:05:09 AM

yesterday we hit a new daily volume record on finex, today we doubled that new record.

There were 45k coins traded in less than an hour on bitfinex this morning. That's almost the quantity for sale at the last US marshals auction.
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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January 15, 2015, 12:08:12 AM


They prolly started with much less, but have easily doubled up or more during every raid making them ~16X more powerful than when they started- 32X if you count this last one. These are technically skilled traders to begin with who would be profitable traders even if they weren't market movers and market makers. When you have skill to begin with, it takes much less ammo to push the market in the direction it wants to go anyway. Even I could walk it up and walk it back on a slow day with very low volume and--as has been pointed out several times--am just a hick fireman.

Surely they don't risk all of their capital every time. One miscalculation or piece of bad luck and you get wiped out.

They don't have to risk all of it because they are so powerful, they only risk what they need to risk. They were going to push the market down until there was a long squeeze. I have no idea how much of their capital it took but surely not all of it. The problem is there has been no real bounce yet like the other four raids. This is new. They may have been too successful in accumulating coins and now they have (like me ironically) too many coins that aren't worth anything. Yes, we can leverage them up to push the market higher, but not sustainably without a fresh infusion of fiat.

This may be an unrecoverable stall without Big Money coming to the rescue and who knows how long we're going to bleed before the vultures come in and pick over our carcasses. I am not selling, but I have to prepare for an indefinite period without additional income.

This doesn't sound promising at all
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January 15, 2015, 12:09:39 AM

Who is still shorting???  Shocked And finex didn't even fall much...

USD   0.0243%   0.0662%   14,105,693.21 USD
BTC   0.0494%   0.0444%   26,954.87 BTC

Shorts new ATH. Longs at the lowest level since May.




There arn't that many shorting

Someone is taking out BTC credit swaps to raise the price for the few people who are shorting.  to remove liquidity.  

They did it with LTC coin too, you can look here and see http://www.bfxdata.com/

Where is written how many btc swaps is atualy shorted?
Swaps have the same timing as the price movement...

You cant tell, only infer it.
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January 15, 2015, 12:14:30 AM

I just spent the last of my bitcoins to buy a ceiling fan on overstock.com.
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January 15, 2015, 12:15:46 AM


They prolly started with much less, but have easily doubled up or more during every raid making them ~16X more powerful than when they started- 32X if you count this last one. These are technically skilled traders to begin with who would be profitable traders even if they weren't market movers and market makers. When you have skill to begin with, it takes much less ammo to push the market in the direction it wants to go anyway. Even I could walk it up and walk it back on a slow day with very low volume and--as has been pointed out several times--am just a hick fireman.

Surely they don't risk all of their capital every time. One miscalculation or piece of bad luck and you get wiped out.

They don't have to risk all of it because they are so powerful, they only risk what they need to risk. They were going to push the market down until there was a long squeeze. I have no idea how much of their capital it took but surely not all of it. The problem is there has been no real bounce yet like the other four raids. This is new. They may have been too successful in accumulating coins and now they have (like me ironically) too many coins that aren't worth anything. Yes, we can leverage them up to push the market higher, but not sustainably without a fresh infusion of fiat.

This may be an unrecoverable stall without Big Money coming to the rescue and who knows how long we're going to bleed before the vultures come in and pick over our carcasses. I am not selling, but I have to prepare for an indefinite period without additional income.

This doesn't sound promising at all

Killing your trading environment isn't a great long term profit motive. Especially when you run the risk of irreperably damaging your main holding asset in the process.

This has obviously been orchestrated. The trolls are just useful idiots.

The single question remaining is where is the bottom?

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January 15, 2015, 12:16:37 AM

These are some nice and tasty <$200 coins


nomnomnom
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January 15, 2015, 12:17:07 AM

Who is still shorting???  Shocked And finex didn't even fall much...

USD   0.0243%   0.0662%   14,105,693.21 USD
BTC   0.0494%   0.0444%   26,954.87 BTC

Shorts new ATH. Longs at the lowest level since May.




There arn't that many shorting

Someone is taking out BTC credit swaps to raise the price for the few people who are shorting.  to remove liquidity.  

They did it with LTC coin too, you can look here and see http://www.bfxdata.com/

Where is written how many btc swaps is atualy shorted?
Swaps have the same timing as the price movement...

In some cases yes.  

I was watcching the charts quite closely and the live swaps as they come in, there are a large number of swaps going through that do not get traded.

It happens with both BTC and LTC.  Good example look at the LTC spike 15:37 11th Jan,  the swaps jumped to 191k from 127k in 1 go,  http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

I was watching and nothing was sold,  The swap was closed a little later after that period of selling pressure passed.  (for the time being)

I have been studying it for a while.

Why does a 1015 BTC short show up here http://bfxdata.com/swapstats/btc.php

but not on wisdom https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

Any ideas?


Shorts are not as high as someone wants us to think they are.  Bitcoin is being sold, not shorted!

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January 15, 2015, 12:17:21 AM

Bitstamp is going crazy.
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January 15, 2015, 12:18:25 AM

Bulls and Bears duking it out, toe to toe.

 Cool
 
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January 15, 2015, 12:19:42 AM

yesterday we hit a new daily volume record on finex, today we doubled that new record.

269636!!! on finex. If we can keep this up bitcoin might actually be worth something.
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January 15, 2015, 12:20:03 AM

Who is still shorting???  Shocked And finex didn't even fall much...

USD   0.0243%   0.0662%   14,105,693.21 USD
BTC   0.0494%   0.0444%   26,954.87 BTC

Shorts new ATH. Longs at the lowest level since May.




There arn't that many shorting

Someone is taking out BTC credit swaps to raise the price for the few people who are shorting.  to remove liquidity.  

They did it with LTC coin too, you can look here and see http://www.bfxdata.com/

Where is written how many btc swaps is atualy shorted?
Swaps have the same timing as the price movement...

In some cases yes.  

I was watcching the charts quite closely and the live swaps as they come in, there are a large number of swaps going through that do not get traded.

It happens with both BTC and LTC.  Good example look at the LTC spike 15:37 11th Jan,  the swaps jumped to 191k from 127k in 1 go,  http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

I was watching and nothing was sold,  The swap was closed a little later after that period of selling pressure passed.  (for the time being)

I have been studying it for a while.

Why does a 1015 BTC short show up here http://bfxdata.com/swapstats/btc.php

but not on wisdom https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

Any ideas?


Shorts are not as high as someone wants us to think they are.  Bitcoin is being sold, not shorted!



Also some is fake advertising to influence price movement
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January 15, 2015, 12:20:11 AM

do not think 1000 CNY could be broken again downwards short to medium term
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January 15, 2015, 12:21:24 AM




 Grin Cool
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January 15, 2015, 12:23:34 AM

CCMF!
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January 15, 2015, 12:25:12 AM

CCMF!

Dude. Just no
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January 15, 2015, 12:25:31 AM

CCMF!

Um, can we at least wait till we get back to the 200's?  I would even say we should wait until the 300's for any CCMF posts.
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January 15, 2015, 12:26:46 AM

I feel like the last 13 months were a dream and I just woke up to great news!
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January 15, 2015, 12:27:27 AM

CCMF!

Um, can we at least wait till we get back to the 200's?  I would even say we should wait until the 300's for any CCMF posts.

Gut tells me right now its a trap and will go down sharply again...not saying new lows but saying it will give back some.
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January 15, 2015, 12:27:32 AM


Well, it seems that we have very different views about the motivations and ideologies of miners and other players.  I don't know how we could resolve this difference, so let's leave it at that.

However, note that a large fraction of the miners are Chinese; that the Chinese may not have much trust in bitcoin as the currency of the internet; and that miners, more than any other bitcoiners, cannot plan much beyond a 2-year horizon, because their equipment quickly becomes uncompetitive due to improvements in the energy efficiency.

I don't think there is any viewpoint involved.  It is simply an observable fact that ONLY the consensus of miners decides what IS Bitcoin protocol, and what is NOT Bitcoin protocol.  Miners will presumably act in there own self-interest, which, I believe, involves maintaining the value of the coin they are mining - which, again, would obviously be destroyed by allowing the protocol to be arbitrarily changed by anyone who promised to buy a bunch.

It's not clear to me why you seem to feel that the nationality of said miners is relevant.
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January 15, 2015, 12:28:27 AM

CCMF!

Um, can we at least wait till we get back to the 200's?  I would even say we should wait until the 300's for any CCMF posts.

Gut tells me right now its a trap and will go down sharply again...not saying new lows but saying it will give back some.

maybe, but the 4-hour is turning in the right direction.
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