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12345mm
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March 11, 2015, 12:34:15 AM |
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so basically ... what i gather from the talk of usd swaps and btc swaps and % used and % held and such ... is that there is more demand for btc than money being offered to lend to spend on btc ? right? ... so more or less people cannot buy enough of btc with their own money / are already all in with their non-leveraged fiat and doing everything they can to buy the hell out of it more ? ... meanwhile 3600 produced a day at 290 a pop comes out riiiiight about at 1M needing to be bought daily in fiat dollar terms ? ... honestly i don't know quite what to make of that ... but with 1 million estimated bitcoin users , we basically all need to drop $1 a day on average to consume the supply all other speculative buying/selling being equal ? ... doesn't sound bad ... hmmmm ... sounds like rabid demand vs minimal supply when averaged across all involved parties , just with limited/inadequate capital being provided by lenders ?
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Bralex
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March 11, 2015, 12:37:49 AM |
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Simple profit taking? Make it quick  There's certainly a bit of a dump going on right now on Bitfinex. 11,000 was a bit but not really a dump, they soon started shorting when it hit the 3's though how long do we hold this i wonder  Makes me want to take profit tonight before bed... |
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dreamspark
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March 11, 2015, 12:54:14 AM |
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so basically ... what i gather from the talk of usd swaps and btc swaps and % used and % held and such ... is that there is more demand for btc than money being offered to lend to spend on btc ? right? ... so more or less people cannot buy enough of btc with their own money / are already all in with their non-leveraged fiat and doing everything they can to buy the hell out of it more ? ... meanwhile 3600 produced a day at 290 a pop comes out riiiiight about at 1M needing to be bought daily in fiat dollar terms ? ... honestly i don't know quite what to make of that ... but with 1 million estimated bitcoin users , we basically all need to drop $1 a day on average to consume the supply all other speculative buying/selling being equal ? ... doesn't sound bad ... hmmmm ... sounds like rabid demand vs minimal supply when averaged across all involved parties , just with limited/inadequate capital being provided by lenders ?
There's one important thing to remember and that is that Finex is not the whole market. Longs are over extended on Finex yes but it only takes say 4 million of new money to let the extended longs close into it. On okcoin for example there are more shorts out. |
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ChartBuddy
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March 11, 2015, 12:59:22 AM |
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12345mm
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March 11, 2015, 01:07:12 AM |
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so basically ... what i gather from the talk of usd swaps and btc swaps and % used and % held and such ... is that there is more demand for btc than money being offered to lend to spend on btc ? right? ... so more or less people cannot buy enough of btc with their own money / are already all in with their non-leveraged fiat and doing everything they can to buy the hell out of it more ? ... meanwhile 3600 produced a day at 290 a pop comes out riiiiight about at 1M needing to be bought daily in fiat dollar terms ? ... honestly i don't know quite what to make of that ... but with 1 million estimated bitcoin users , we basically all need to drop $1 a day on average to consume the supply all other speculative buying/selling being equal ? ... doesn't sound bad ... hmmmm ... sounds like rabid demand vs minimal supply when averaged across all involved parties , just with limited/inadequate capital being provided by lenders ?
There's one important thing to remember and that is that Finex is not the whole market. Longs are over extended on Finex yes but it only takes say 4 million of new money to let the extended longs close into it. On okcoin for example there are more shorts out. well right ... yeah ... i mean that obviously makes sense of course it's not the whole market but is a good indicator yeah? ... meanwhile ultimately every btc being offered to lend is btc that is expected to be paid back , and basically represents btc held for future and not btc that *actually* wants to be sold ? ... it's just btc being offered with an expected % return but really being held long term ? ... definitely hard to wrap one's head around the whole lending mess ... but it seems like overall all of the btc being offered for swaps is bullish long term and all the usd being offered for swaps is ambivalent and just looking for some fiat % gain and that demand for usd loaned is greater than usd being offered ? ... so there's a lending demand that's not being satisfied ? |
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billyjoeallen
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Hide your women
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March 11, 2015, 01:24:10 AM |
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so basically ... what i gather from the talk of usd swaps and btc swaps and % used and % held and such ... is that there is more demand for btc than money being offered to lend to spend on btc ? right? ... so more or less people cannot buy enough of btc with their own money / are already all in with their non-leveraged fiat and doing everything they can to buy the hell out of it more ? ... meanwhile 3600 produced a day at 290 a pop comes out riiiiight about at 1M needing to be bought daily in fiat dollar terms ? ... honestly i don't know quite what to make of that ... but with 1 million estimated bitcoin users , we basically all need to drop $1 a day on average to consume the supply all other speculative buying/selling being equal ? ... doesn't sound bad ... hmmmm ... sounds like rabid demand vs minimal supply when averaged across all involved parties , just with limited/inadequate capital being provided by lenders ?
There's one important thing to remember and that is that Finex is not the whole market. Longs are over extended on Finex yes but it only takes say 4 million of new money to let the extended longs close into it. On okcoin for example there are more shorts out. well right ... yeah ... i mean that obviously makes sense of course it's not the whole market but is a good indicator yeah? ... meanwhile ultimately every btc being offered to lend is btc that is expected to be paid back , and basically represents btc held for future and not btc that *actually* wants to be sold ? ... it's just btc being offered with an expected % return but really being held long term ? ... definitely hard to wrap one's head around the whole lending mess ... but it seems like overall all of the btc being offered for swaps is bullish long term and all the usd being offered for swaps is ambivalent and just looking for some fiat % gain and that demand for usd loaned is greater than usd being offered ? ... so there's a lending demand that's not being satisfied ? At some point, there will be enough demand and high USD swap fees that people will send fiat to stamp only to lend it out. This will likely continue until interest rates drop so far that lending USD is no longer attractive. THEN, there will be more USD on the exchange than coins to buy with it, a situation ripe for a major jump. |
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galdur
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March 11, 2015, 01:29:18 AM |
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Up 30% over the last 30 days. That´s a novelty, at least for the last year or so. Volume seems to be increasing along with buying interest. Hoping it´ll continue.
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dreamspark
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March 11, 2015, 01:35:56 AM |
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Yeah and the USD lending on Finex is complicated. Another thing people forget is that the USD swaps include LTC as well which account for a percentage.
Exactly like bja said as well there is theoretically unlimited fiat that can come onto Finex to be lent. You could have $500 million lent out, the fact that the rate is high is two fold. It's the fact that nearly all the available liquidity is lent out but there may also be less liquidity there as lenders decide they would rather use their USD to buy coins (very good sign of a trend change).
Yeah you pretty much have it with the last point. Again though its just a part of the market.
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hyphymikey
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March 11, 2015, 01:52:12 AM |
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so basically ... what i gather from the talk of usd swaps and btc swaps and % used and % held and such ... is that there is more demand for btc than money being offered to lend to spend on btc ? right? ... so more or less people cannot buy enough of btc with their own money / are already all in with their non-leveraged fiat and doing everything they can to buy the hell out of it more ? ... meanwhile 3600 produced a day at 290 a pop comes out riiiiight about at 1M needing to be bought daily in fiat dollar terms ? ... honestly i don't know quite what to make of that ... but with 1 million estimated bitcoin users , we basically all need to drop $1 a day on average to consume the supply all other speculative buying/selling being equal ? ... doesn't sound bad ... hmmmm ... sounds like rabid demand vs minimal supply when averaged across all involved parties , just with limited/inadequate capital being provided by lenders ?
Parts not addressed so far, I have bolded above. As far as mined coins needed to be sold, there is speculation that miners are no longer dumping. Which makes sense because I have not seen the coins added to the ask side, and some dumped like they used to periodically, causing most of the downtrend. Either they are holding for a price increase to get more profits, since they may have been mining at a loss or not much profit, OR what I suspect, is that most of the mined coins are now being sold off exchange, which is likely, due to the rise on the exchanges as well. It seems that a lot of people are accumulating as many coins as they can, from miners, exchanges, and by borrowing USD to go long with. Bitstamp is the only major outlier to this speculation, as they have no volume but a nice bit of coins for sale in the immediate price range. With this and the capitulation at $160, if this doesn't signal a reversal (either short or long term) I do not know what does. |
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Inotanewbie
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March 11, 2015, 01:56:56 AM |
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Up 30% over the last 30 days. That´s a novelty, at least for the last year or so. Volume seems to be increasing along with buying interest. Hoping it´ll continue.
Hopefully this is the change we have been waiting for we have the uptrend and we get possible excellent news that 21 has raised 116-166million investment for bitcoin. Can only wonder what the future holds am holding my coins for the long now i believe will be dangerous to say the least to continue the short game but who knows probably a few more before a nice rise  Uncle newbie |
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ChartBuddy
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March 11, 2015, 02:00:01 AM |
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hyphymikey
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March 11, 2015, 02:02:05 AM |
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People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...
Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.
If price doesn't start to go up soon then they will most likely close the positions. The % is to high to justify the loan rate for a declining/sideways price. I am glad I took extra USD loans a few days ago before the rates went crazy. I use the extra USD to buy a little on all the dips, a tip I learned from reading really old posts on this forum. And if the price goes down due to some crazy flash dumper, I have USD with low rates to buy big and lower my average buy in price. I know many have said it before but I will repeat it for newer traders, if you are using leverage, make sure you have enough coins or fiat to back it even if the price goes way down. I am currently leveraged to the point where sub 100 won't clean me out. At that point I will be buying so many coins that I will just send them to finex to further my capital. (I wish I would have known this before I lost 100s of coins back in the day) |
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ElectricMucus
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March 11, 2015, 02:09:45 AM |
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People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...
Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.
If price doesn't start to go up soon then they will most likely close the positions. The % is to high to justify the loan rate for a declining/sideways price. I am glad I took extra USD loans a few days ago before the rates went crazy. I use the extra USD to buy a little on all the dips, a tip I learned from reading really old posts on this forum. And if the price goes down due to some crazy flash dumper, I have USD with low rates to buy big and lower my average buy in price. I know many have said it before but I will repeat it for newer traders, if you are using leverage, make sure you have enough coins or fiat to back it even if the price goes way down. I am currently leveraged to the point where sub 100 won't clean me out. At that point I will be buying so many coins that I will just send them to finex to further my capital. (I wish I would have known this before I lost 100s of coins back in the day) I'm sure the bank teller was fine with it being used for buying bitcoins, right? I know, I know getting a loan under false pretenses or your credit rating doesn't matter in the new world of super duper hyper bitcoin randian enterprise utopia. |
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ElectricMucus
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March 11, 2015, 02:14:12 AM |
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Just realizing you are referring to gambling on bitfinex as taking a loan, carry on.
(Which makes it not less dumb)
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hyphymikey
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March 11, 2015, 02:15:09 AM |
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People are opening longs at 0.75% a day FFS! The entire USD Long end has been wiped...
Last time this happened, the price dropped 30% the 30 days following the spike. Obviously, this isn't reason to believe it will happen again in that same way, but it is a possible warning sign.
If price doesn't start to go up soon then they will most likely close the positions. The % is to high to justify the loan rate for a declining/sideways price. I am glad I took extra USD loans a few days ago before the rates went crazy. I use the extra USD to buy a little on all the dips, a tip I learned from reading really old posts on this forum. And if the price goes down due to some crazy flash dumper, I have USD with low rates to buy big and lower my average buy in price. I know many have said it before but I will repeat it for newer traders, if you are using leverage, make sure you have enough coins or fiat to back it even if the price goes way down. I am currently leveraged to the point where sub 100 won't clean me out. At that point I will be buying so many coins that I will just send them to finex to further my capital. (I wish I would have known this before I lost 100s of coins back in the day) I'm sure the bank teller was fine with it being used for buying bitcoins, right? I know, I know getting a loan under false pretenses or your credit rating doesn't matter in the new world of super duper hyper bitcoin randian enterprise utopia. USD loans through finex not my bank. I would never borrow from a bank to buy coins. I wouldn't consider it gambling if I am well funded. I'm willing to "gamble" 10% of my coins if I can make 3.3:1 earnings on them, any day and all day. |
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tarmi
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March 11, 2015, 02:29:24 AM |
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well fuck me, usd swaps going to 21 mil and people still buying on finex. then I read about people taking loans and everything starts to make sense. Current trade: Just went long @ 297 BFX. Looking to close @ around $360-430. It is about to cross $300 any moment now on BFX. The recent FINRA news is quite bullish, short term is very bullish as well. Lots of cup and handles being formed on the charts.
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Richy_T
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March 11, 2015, 02:30:04 AM |
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Why exactly is Bitcoin rallying? Nothing has changed.
Exactly. Nothing *has* changed. In my opinion, all Bitcoin has to do to succeed is not fail. |
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ElectricMucus
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March 11, 2015, 02:35:59 AM |
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Why exactly is Bitcoin rallying? Nothing has changed.
Exactly. Nothing *has* changed. In my opinion, all Bitcoin has to do to succeed is not fail. By what metric? And what do you mean when you say Bitcoin, the Software, the Community or the use as a Payment Infrastructure? Because I think it ultimately failed on the latter two accounts with The Goxxing. (or if you believe GOX the former one....) |
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ElectricMucus
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March 11, 2015, 02:40:13 AM |
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Last time I checked, which was about 20 minutes ago, Bitcoin was still a cryptocurrency.
Which consists of the Software, the Community and the use as a Payment Infrastructure. |
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lyth0s
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World Class Cryptonaire
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March 11, 2015, 02:50:40 AM |
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Overall I'm pretty happy with the recent stability of bitcoin in the mid $290's after all that growth these past few days. This is perhaps the calm before the next growth spurt. If you draw some pretty TA lines from the past 2 days it looks like the new support is at $291 with an upside potential of $303 short term. Lets see what tomorrow brings us |
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