Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[spooderman]

Bitcoin difficulty: UP
Bitcoin price: UP
Sun: OUT
Winter: OVER

Anyone else happy as fuck???

(I am aware that some of you may be from different geographical locations where winter is in fact, just starting and the bitcoin price is DOWN, but still).

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[lyth0s]

I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?


Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?

[niner]

[chriswen]

I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?


Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?

that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[lyth0s]

I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?


Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?

that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.

But how would you confirm that this is now a bull market rather than just a larger pump before an larger incoming dump (thus still being a bear market?).

And hopefully other than some fancy TA lines drawn on a chart....are there any other indicators such as volume, price velocity or MACD etc? --I'm not really a trader so these concepts are rather new to me.

[chriswen]

I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?


Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?

that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.

But how would you confirm that this is now a bull market rather than just a larger pump before an larger incoming dump (thus still being a bear market?).

And hopefully other than some fancy TA lines drawn on a chart....are there any other indicators such as volume, price velocity or MACD etc? --I'm not really a trader so these concepts are rather new to me.

Well its pretty obvious that we've been in a bear trend for quite awhile.

And now I think it could still be debated whether we are in a bull market yet.  I think we're in a transitionary phase.  Bulls are still cautious but bears are starting to lose power. 

[lyth0s]

I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?


Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?

that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.

But how would you confirm that this is now a bull market rather than just a larger pump before an larger incoming dump (thus still being a bear market?).

And hopefully other than some fancy TA lines drawn on a chart....are there any other indicators such as volume, price velocity or MACD etc? --I'm not really a trader so these concepts are rather new to me.

Well its pretty obvious that we've been in a bear trend for quite awhile.

And now I think it could still be debated whether we are in a bull market yet.  I think we're in a transitionary phase.  Bulls are still cautious but bears are starting to lose power. 

Yeah that is my point. It is very obvious that we have been in a bear market for a looonnnng time, however what would we be looking for in order to confirm a new bull market rather than just a small pump / temporary break from the trend prior to another dump?

Due to the prevalence of bull vs bear market analysis there has to be some sort of well developed indicators that traders use to determine short term bull vs short term bear market rather than just "oh hey the price is finally going up therefore we are now in bull market!" --Or at least I hope the "science" behind the study of markets is more developed than that

[spooderman]

Well my "well developed indicator" (lol) is the long period of sideways/gentle upwards motion that we've been experiencing since mid January. There's no better indicator than time.

[chriswen]

I'm not even sure to what to make of the bitcoin price nowadays. It used to get small pumps followed by large dumps driving the price down. Now it gets large pumps that occur in very short time frames, then small dumps, mostly with a small upside to the price. Was the recent low around $220 and now we are on a long recovering phase from there? Or is this just a pump and dump cycle that hasn't had its true dump back to low $200's yet?


Also is this likely a single buyer that makes these huge short terms pumps? Or market orders getting executed near the same time? WTF is going on?

that's the difference between a bear market and a bull market.

But how would you confirm that this is now a bull market rather than just a larger pump before an larger incoming dump (thus still being a bear market?).

And hopefully other than some fancy TA lines drawn on a chart....are there any other indicators such as volume, price velocity or MACD etc? --I'm not really a trader so these concepts are rather new to me.

Well its pretty obvious that we've been in a bear trend for quite awhile.

And now I think it could still be debated whether we are in a bull market yet.  I think we're in a transitionary phase.  Bulls are still cautious but bears are starting to lose power. 

Yeah that is my point. It is very obvious that we have been in a bear market for a looonnnng time, however what would we be looking for in order to confirm a new bull market rather than just a small pump / temporary break from the trend prior to another dump?

Due to the prevalence of bull vs bear market analysis there has to be some sort of well developed indicators that traders use to determine short term bull vs short term bear market rather than just "oh hey the price is finally going up therefore we are now in bull market!" --Or at least I hope the "science" behind the study of markets is more developed than that

For TA you'd be looking at linear and log trendlines.  People also look at the 100 and 200 moving averages.  MACD is also important.

[JayJuanGee]

This market is splashed around too much by whales with their own motives to take too much stock in TA. Thankfully we have a professor with academic interest only to run regressions against the aftermath.

Now now, dont be so pessimistic about the market. It has been recovering already.

Pessimism is in the eye of the beholder. I thought my statement was rather neutral.

Generally, I am also of the opinion that the last few months have been a very slow recovery... and seemingly inching our way up.  Maybe it is going to take a few weeks to go above $300 and then thereafter, maybe it will take a few months to go above $400.... but generally seems like the trend is on its way to turning upward.. even if BTC prices may be somewhat flat for a while, such as one or two months or even longer.

[NUFCrichard]

This market is splashed around too much by whales with their own motives to take too much stock in TA. Thankfully we have a professor with academic interest only to run regressions against the aftermath.

Now now, dont be so pessimistic about the market. It has been recovering already.

Pessimism is in the eye of the beholder. I thought my statement was rather neutral.

Generally, I am also of the opinion that the last few months have been a very slow recovery... and seemingly inching our way up.  Maybe it is going to take a few weeks to go above $300 and then thereafter, maybe it will take a few months to go above $400.... but generally seems like the trend is on its way to turning upward.. even if BTC prices may be somewhat flat for a while, such as one or two months or even longer.

I agree with that, I don't really feel any obligation to sell at the moment, I think all of the news has been good for quite some time now, the global economy isn't looking great and with currencies racing to the bottom (other than the USD), having money in Bitcoin seems pretty prudent at the moment, and I think more and more will agree with me, raising the price

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[KryptoFoo]

I think the market might need a little breather before we move higher. Gonna buy me a dip if it comes.

[adaseb]

Looks like more upside if triangle breaks ... or downside.

[macsga]

BTC will boom shortly imho. Feels like a safe haven for many investors at the moment since it seems the downtrend of EURO/USD will be the main thing of this week... All time low since 2005. On the other hand USD price goes ballistic. Maybe the market already knows something we don't?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=10Y

[spooderman]

Yeow! The euro is tanking.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Erdogan]

Here is a great trade for those having fiat, but dare not invest more in bitcoin due to the downside risk.

1 Buy a bitcoin
2 Sell a 6 month forward, using the bitcoin as collateral.
3 Collect a USD20 no risk*) profit. That is a 7% in 6 months. Buy an extra ice cream now, care free.

The reason is that the forwards are 20 % higher than spot, indicating an expected rise, in aggregate, by the market.

You have the same phenomenon in oil, except storage of oil is costly, which means that a larger spread on the future/spot is necessary to make a profit.


*) except third party risk.

I don't personally go into this, I would rather just have the bitcoin, I don't mind the risk.

[KryptoFoo]

I think the market might need a little breather before we move higher. Gonna buy me a dip if it comes.

Or maybe not, sheesh!